Low-lying and small tropical coral reef islands around the world are extremely vulnerable to the effects of global environmental change caused by the combination of anthropogenic climate change and escalating extreme hydrodynamic events. Erosion and inundation are anticipated to physically destabilize the tropical coral reef islands, rendering them uninhabitable within the next century. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the repercussions of these hazardous events on the delicate reef island ecosystem in order to conserve and ensure sustainable management. Multitemporal remotely sensed Landsat satellite imageries were utilized to investigate the net and decadal morphological transformation of tropical coral reef islands in the Gulf of Mannar, Indian Ocean. Over the past half-century, these islands have consistently adapted to global environmental changes, even while local sea levels rise at a rate of 3.38mm per year. Advanced statistical techniques, such as net shoreline movement (NSM), end point rate (EPR), and linear regression rate (LRR), were employed for estimating the shoreline change rate using a Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). In addition, the GIS-based overlay analysis methods were applied to examine the net and decadal areal (planform) changes and also utilized for estimating the inundation trajectories of reef islands under the sea level rise scenarios of 1m and 2m. Furthermore, time series analysis was performed to analyze the variability of critical climate-induced factors using archived reanalysis oceanographic data. In addition, linear and polynomial statistical techniques were applied to investigate the driving factors behind the coral reef island morphological transition. The findings show that two islands have already disappeared, while others have experienced a dramatic reduction in their footprint. Approximately 62.64% of the shoreline experienced significant erosion, while 36.91% witnessed gradual accretion. The Tuticorin group confronted the severe reduction in island footprint, with a significant decrease of 83.04%, followed by Keelakarai groups (33.35%), Mandapam groups (29.60%), Vembar groups (28.14%), and Rameswaram islands (3.43%). The study also predicts that the island footprint could submerge in an area of 627.30ha and 1284.21ha within the next century, with an expected sea level rise (SLR) of 1m and 2m, respectively. The study emphasizes that the combination of human-induced factors and regional coastal processes such as sea level rise and swells are the key drivers engendering the stress on the physical resilience of the coral reef islands. Urgent and continual monitoring of the reef islands is crucial for a better understanding of their dynamic trajectories and for developing nature-based solutions to catastrophic erosion. These nature-based solutions (NbS) for minimizing island erosion are initiatives that use natural ecosystems to safeguard islands while enhancing biodiversity, climate resilience, and community livelihoods. The interactions between nature-based solutions (NbS) for combating erosion, reef island resilience, and Sustainable Development Goals are evaluated based on the positive correlation, our expert knowledge, and Griggs et al.'s 2017 seven-point scale framework. The outcomes of this study may provide comprehensive insights to decision-makers and administrators for formulating and implementing policies for long-term resilience building and sustainable island management.
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