Management Risk Research Articles

PREDICTING INSOLVENCY IN BRAZILIAN COMPANIES USING MACHINE LEARNING:

Corporate insolvency prediction serves as a valuable strategic parameter to proactively identify financial and managerial risks. Recent approaches to bankruptcy prediction have predominantly leveraged machine learning algorithms, demonstrating superior predictive accuracy compared to conventional methods. This study highlights the effectiveness of the Random Forest methodology in insolvency assessments. Consequently, an exploratory analysis was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of employing a bankruptcy prediction model within the scope of publicly traded Brazilian companies using machine learning techniques. The sample is made up of companies with delisting status on the B3 stock exchange due to insolvency, between 2005 and 2018, a period in line with the enactment of Brazilian legislation on the subject. Evaluation of the model in Brazilian companies revealed an accuracy of 98% in predicting bankruptcies, highlighting the effectiveness of the Random Forest model as a valuable resource for investors, corporate decision makers and interested parties. This research contributes significantly to the discourse surrounding the adoption of machine learning tools in the field of bankruptcy prediction in the Brazilian business scenario.

Effects of procurement risk management strategies on public procuring entities' performance

Organizations implement risk management to mitigate the effects of unforeseen events in their operation settings. The current study aims to investigate the relationship between procurement risk-management strategies and the performance of public higher-learning institutions registered by the National Council for Technical Education and Vocation Training in Tanzania. The findings of the study provide valuable insights that can influence the risk management strategies and performance management policies of public procuring entities. The Principal-Agent Theory guided the study. A convergent parallel mixed-method design was employed, utilizing a census method that included all 16 public high-learning institutions in Dar es Salaam as the sample. Primary data were collected through structured questionnaires and interviews. Quantitative data analysis involved descriptive statistics to compute percentages and means of school respondents. Multiple Regressions was employed for inferential statistics analysis. Qualitative data analysis was conducted using thematic analysis. The study identified risks affecting the performance of PEs including non-compliance risks, planning risks, managerial risks, contract management risks, and project delays. To address these challenges, the study recommends that entities should develop and adhere to their procurement plans, invest in capacity building to strengthen ethical practices to avoid unethical behavior, and address non-compliance issues. Entities should use a combination of strategies based on internal policies, experience, and the preferences of the procurement assignment.

The role of the World Guidelines for Falls Prevention and Management's risk stratification algorithm in predicting falls: a retrospective analysis of the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

Recurrent falls are observed frequently among older people, and they are responsible for significant morbidity and mortality. The aim of the present study was to verify sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of World Guidelines for Falls Prevention and Management (WGFPM) falls risk stratification algorithm using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Participants aged between 40 and 80years were stratified as 'low risk', 'intermediate risk' or 'high risk' as per WGFPM stratification. Data from the OAI cohort study were used, a multi-centre, longitudinal, observational study focusing primarily on knee osteoarthritis. The assessment of the outcome was carried out at baseline and during the follow-up visit at 24months. Data about sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were reported. Totally, 4796 participants were initially included. Participants were aged a mean of 61.4years (SD = 9.1) and were predominantly women (58.0%). The population was divided into three groups: low risk (n = 3266; 82%), intermediate risk (n = 25; 0.6%) and high risk (n = 690; 17.3%). WGFPM algorithm applied to OAI, excluding the intermediate-risk group, produced a sensitivity score of 33.7% and specificity of 89.9% for predicting one or more falls, with an accuracy of 72.4%. In our study, WGFPM risk assessment algorithm successfully distinguished older people at greater risk of falling using the opportunistic case finding method with a good specificity, but limited sensitivity, of WGFPM falls risk stratification algorithm.

УПРАВЛІННЯ СТАЛИМ РОЗВИТКОМ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА В УМОВАХ МІНЛИВОГО СЕРЕДОВИЩА

The need to solve the global problems of humanity has already convincingly and indisputably proven the feasibility of introducing the concept of sustainable development into the practical sphere of economic activity and management of business entities. However, the complexity and scale of the components of the trilemma of sustainable development create several risks and threats to the organization's management system. These risks are exacerbated by the unpredictable effects of external and internal business environment factors. The article examines the peculiarities of managing the activities of enterprises based on sustainable development under the influence of factors of a changing business environment. The proposed author's vision of the content of sustainable development is based on the combination of commercial and non-commercial goals of the company's existence. The implementation of the principles of the global concept of sustainable development in the practical sphere of enterprise management showed the urgent need to consider the challenges and risks exacerbated by the high degree of volatility and variability of the external business environment. Under such conditions, modern approaches to management are updated, which are based on the principles of risk management and allow effective management and leveling of the consequences of transformational transformations associated with the sustainable development of the company. It was determined that the key risks for sustainable business are environmental, social and managerial risks. Considering the nature of their origin and the nature of the manifestation, the article examines the phasing of the risk management process recommended by the world's leading companies when the company achieves the goals of sustainable development. A set of management methods based on the principles of sustainable business development is recommended under the conditions of the need to level the risks of the organization's changing environment. Among the main ones, the following are proposed: a method of analyzing hierarchy processes; method of analytical and network processes; a method of assessing the priority of organizational sub-risks of sustainable management; compliance, assessment of codes of business conduct, assessment of sustainability risks of supply chains. It was determined that the achievement of the goals and objectives of sustainable development and modern approaches to risk management of the business environment should be based on a more transparent disclosure of information about activities. The international standard IFRS S1 "General Requirements For Disclosures Of Sustainability-Related Financial Information" is not just a strategic guideline, but a necessity for the disclosure of information and the creation of a transparent information and analytical management base. This practice is now becoming mandatory for large and medium-sized businesses in foreign management practice, underlining its importance in sustainable business management.

Risks in the Educational Management of Ukraine during War and Post-war Development

Risk management is the main element of the management system in educational institutions. During the war and post-war development, the issue of identifying risks in educational management and assessing their impact on management decision-making takes on from a new perspective. This article analyzes recent studies and publications in the field of risks in educational management, covering both general and those that are specific to the management of educational institutions in tactical, strategic, and post-war horizons. The article also determines risk estimates and presents possible strategies and measures for responding to risk events. The material presented in the article is based on research conducted through interviews with experts. The respondents included middle and senior managers, as well as owners of educational institutions from eight cities and nine regions of Ukraine. In this study, risks were classified by scope and source of occurrence, which were categorized into external and internal risks. Three main groups were identified within external risks: political, economic, and social risks. Internal risks are divided into financial, technical, and managerial risks. A general analysis of expert assessments demonstrated the most and least likely risks and their impact on the management system of world institutions in Ukraine across three time intervals: now, during the war, and post-war reconstruction. Each time dimension is considered in detail, and the change in structure, priority and assessment of the impact of classified risks on the management system of educational institutions is analyzed. For each risk factor, the article provides recommendations on the response strategy and measures to ensure the leveling of the impact of the risk in the management of the educational institution. Special attention is paid to strategies and measures for responding to a risk event in post-war reconstruction, which will make it possible to achieve the set goals in the construction of new directions for the development of Ukrainian educational institutions within the framework of the current Concept of the Strategy of Post-War Reconstruction and Development of Ukraine.

Tailored continuous risk management in nanosatellite space project VZLUSAT-1 using FMECA

The purpose of the research is to demonstrate an application of the existing methodology for risk assessment Failure Mode and Effect Criticality Analysis (FMECA) in nanosatellite projects together with a risk register proposal elaborated based on a literature review and expert interviews. The paper also elaborates on the integration of FMECA and knowledge capture and transfer technique. Literature evidence and the use case of the VZLUSAT-1 CubeSat show that it is challenging to implement proper project management and especially risk management practices into nanosatellite (or CubeSat) projects. The risks identified are mostly connected with the technical part, design, and operation of the satellite, and personal, financial, stakeholder, or managerial risks are omitted. The mission success rate can be significantly improved when risks are adequately considered at stages preceding the launch and operation of the satellite.

The Impact of Historical Performance and Managerial Risk-taking Propensity on the Behavior of Choosing Prospector Strategy and Using Strategic Management Accounting Information in Viet Nam Manufacturer

Strategic management accounting (SMA) supports managers in decision-making and activity control to accomplish both short- and long-term objectives. This study, based on the Upper Echelons Theory (UET), investigates how the CFO’s psychological trait—the propensity to take managerial risks, affects the decision to choose prospector strategy and uses SMA information. The main objective of this study is to find out what factors influence the behavior using SMA information. This study also takes into account the internal locus of control “s moderating role effect in some relationships. The CFOs of Vietnamese major manufacturers are investigated. The results have shown that: (1) the lower of the historical performance, the more likely CFOs are to choose the prospector strategy, the more CFOs have managerial risk-taking propensity, the more SMA information usage behavior increases; (2) the more CFOs have managerial risk-taking propensity, the more likely they are to choose the prospector strategy, and the behavior of using SMA information also increases; (3) the CFOs” internal locus of control (ILOC) trait plays a moderator role in increasing their SMA information usage behavior and prospector strategy selection trend. This study adds to accounting expertise by highlighting the significance of SMA information for decision-making, the CFO’s management risk-taking propensity, and helping top managers develop an effective SMA system.

Preparing to work with artificial intelligence: assessing WHS when using AI in the workplace

PurposeArtificial Intelligence (AI) systems play an increasing role in organisation management, process and product development. This study identifies risks and hazards that AI systems may pose to the work health and safety (WHS) of those engaging with or exposed to them. A conceptual framework of organisational measures for minimising those risks is proposed.Design/methodology/approachAdopting an exploratory, inductive qualitative approach, the researchers interviewed 30 experts in data science, technology and WHS; 12 representatives of nine organisations using or preparing to use AI; and ran online workshops, including with 12 WHS inspectors. The research mapped AI ethics principles endorsed by the Australian government onto the AI Canvas, a tool for tracking AI implementation from ideation via development to operation. Fieldwork and analysis developed a matrix of WHS and organisational–managerial risks and risk minimisation strategies relating to AI use at each implementation stage.FindingsThe study identified psychosocial, work stress and workplace relational risks that organisations and employees face during AI implementation in a workplace. Privacy, business continuity and gaming risks were also noted. All may persist and reoccur during the lifetime of an AI system. Alertness to such risks may be enhanced by adopting a systematic risk assessment approach.Originality/valueA collaborative project involving sociologists, economists and computer scientists, the study relates abstract AI ethics principles to concrete WHS risks and hazards. The study translates principles typically applied at the societal level to workplaces and proposes a process for assessing AI system risks.

The use of the World Guidelines for Falls Prevention and Management's risk stratification algorithm in predicting falls in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

the aim of this study was to retrospectively operationalise the World Guidelines for Falls Prevention and Management (WGFPM) falls risk stratification algorithm using data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). We described how easy the algorithm was to operationalise in TILDA and determined its utility in predicting falls in this population. participants aged ≥50years were stratified as 'low risk', 'intermediate' or 'high risk' as per WGFPM stratification based on their Wave 1 TILDA assessments. Groups were compared for number of falls, number of people who experienced one or more falls and number of people who experienced an injury when falling between Wave 1 and Wave 2 (approximately 2years). 5,882 participants were included in the study; 4,521, 42 and 1,309 were classified as low, intermediate and high risk, respectively, and 10 participants could not be categorised due to missing data. At Wave 2, 17.4%, 43.8% and 40.5% of low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups reported having fallen, and 7.1%, 18.8% and 18.7%, respectively, reported having sustained an injury from falling. the implementation of the WGFPM risk assessment algorithm was feasible in TILDA and successfully differentiated those at greater risk of falling. The high number of participants classified in the low-risk group and lack of differences between the intermediate and high-risk groups may be related to the non-clinical nature of the TILDA sample, and further study in other samples is warranted.

HIERARCHY ANALYSIS METHOD IN THE DECISION-MAKING SYSTEM OF AN ENTERPRISE

The article examines the managerial perceptions of and the attitudes toward financial risks in small and medium-sized enterprises. The process of assessing the financial risk in small and medium-sized enterprises can be completed by various means and through implementation of different methods. However, a common issue for all approaches remains the lack of quantitative information that can ensure a reliable risk assessment. The purpose of the article is to provide practical recommendations with regard to the use of hierarchy analysis method in the decision-making system of an enterprise. The paper proposes to employ a risk assessment methodology based on an analytic hierarchy process which allows obtaining a set of optimal options. The effectiveness of the model has made it popular in many instances that may require defining multiple criteria for the decision-making process, which includes risk assessment and management on the basis of quantitative and qualitative criteria. Nonetheless, the primary drawback of the mentioned method lies in the complexity of calculations for making decisions with multiple alternatives. Data was collected through the use of a questionnaire adapted from previous studies. The questionnaire was divided into two parts. The first part collected socio-demographic information from the respondents, whereas the second part covered the owner’s/manager's risk perception in respect of a list of six financial risks based on two risk characteristics: consequences and probability. The paper incorporates the developed hierarchical structure of the task of making a choice with regard to the impact of the types of financial risks of the enterprise: low or no profit, low or no cash flow, revenue deficit, financing issues, problems with customer payments, increase in bank fees. The values of the consistency ration for both criteria were under (<0.10). Accordingly, the current of analytical hierarchical process analysis has reached an acceptable level of expert judgment. As a conclusion, the calculated weights of the risk components demonstrated that the magnitude (51.5 %) was considered by the executives/managers of enterprises as the most important risk assessment criterion, while the probability (45.5 %) was the second in importance. In the course of the analysis the financial risks were ranked. It was determined that the top three position in the ranking were taken by the following types of financial risks: increase in bank fees – 18,7 %; increase in problems with customer payments – 18 %; low or no cash flow – 16.8 %.

To see is to believe: Corporate site visits and mutual fund herding

AbstractUsing a unique data set of corporate site visits by mutual funds to Chinese firms listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2021, we find that firms with visits (more visits) are associated with lower mutual fund herding than those with no (fewer) visits. In addition, we demonstrate that mutual funds’ visits to a firm drive the change in their herding propensity by verifying hard information (e.g., the firm's technology, innovation, accounting, and finance information) and obtaining soft information (e.g., management's risk appetite, employee morale, and corporate culture). Furthermore, corporate site visits are found to strengthen herding's price impact without return reversals. Overall, our results are consistent with information cascade theory.

Evaluation of the agri-food supply chain risks: the circular economy context

PurposeCircular supply chains (CSC) are particularly important for the agri-food sector, which faces strict requirements generated by increased food consumption as a consequence of world population growth, changes in lifestyle, development of consumer society and increasing health awareness. Recent disruptive factors have placed the vulnerability of agri-food supply chains in the spotlight. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to identify the most manageable groups of risks in order to ensure the smooth operation of agri-food circular supply chains.Design/methodology/approachSeven main risk groups were evaluated in relation to nine criteria. To solve this multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem, a novel MCDM model, which integrates the best-worst method (BWM) and the COmprehensive distance-Based RAnking (COBRA) method in a grey environment, was developed.FindingsThree risks were singled out, namely, product features risks, logistics risks and managerial risks. The obtained risks are those whose management would create the most positive effects for the stakeholders and help them achieve their primary goals regarding the circularity of agri-food supply chains.Originality/valueThis study investigates the main characteristics of the CSC in the agri-food sector, identifies, simultaneously explores and ranks all main risk groups associated with them and expands the possibilities for solving these kinds of problems by developing a novel MCDM model. It also identifies the most significant risks, both for individual stakeholders and for all stakeholder groups together.

Analysis of risks arising at the stages of production, transportation, installation of large-sized modules in the design position

The paper considers the prospects for the development of large-sized modular housing construction in the face of industrial and managerial risks. The authors consider the risks identified at the time of production of a large-sized module, transportation and installation in the design position. The risk planning management algorithm is considered. The article identifies the factors that arise at the stage of production, transportation, installation of a large-sized module in the design position. A literary analysis was carried out on the topic of large-sized volume-block housing construction. The technical and economic prerequisites for the construction of buildings from large-sized modules and obtaining an economic effect are considered, in comparison with the construction of similar buildings in a large-panel or monolithic design. An algorithm for studying potentially significant factors is considered. Practical experiments were carried out, which made it possible to determine the risks affecting the quality of large-sized modules. The task of this work is to identify risks that affect the quality of large-sized modules at various stages: production, transportation, installation of a large-sized module in the design position. As a result, risks were identified by three groups for further qualitative and quantitative analysis, response planning, monitoring, and risk management. The relevance of the considered topic lies in the implementation of investment projects, in their implementation in the field of management.

Effects of air pollution on accounting conservatism

We examine the impact of air pollution on a firm's accounting policy conservatism. We hypothesize that, in response to risks associated with increased air pollution, firms apply more conservative accounting practices and utilize more conservative estimates in their reporting. Using a sample of Chinese firms, accounting conservatism measures, and a satellite-based air pollution metric, we confirm the validity of our hypothesis. Additional analysis suggests that the impact of air pollution on accounting policy conservatism is more salient for firms in high-pollution industries, firms under severe financial constraint, firms with higher environmental risk, and firms that receive high media coverage. Further, we document that air pollution does not significantly affect a firm's return on assets, year-on-year sales growth, or Tobin's Q measure. Hence, it is management's risk perception, not objective performance concern, that is driving accounting conservatism. Finally, specifically investigating accounting conservatism, we discover that, for firms with higher pollution levels, selling general and administrative expenses, liabilities provision, accrued expenses, and asset impairment loss are significantly higher.

Inter‐temporal mutual‐fund management

AbstractTraditionally, mutual funds are mostly managed via an ad hoc approach, namely a terminal‐only optimization. Due to the intricate mathematical complexity of a continuum of constraints imposed, effects of the inter‐temporal reward for the managers are essentially neglected in the previous literature. For instance, the inter‐temporal optimal investment problem from the fund manager's viewpoint, who earns proportional management fees continuously (a golden rule in practice), has been outstanding for long. This article completely resolves this challenging question especially under generic running and terminal utilities, via the Dynamic Programming Principle which leads to a nonconventional, highly nonlinear HJB equation. We develop an original mathematical analysis to establish the unique existence of the classical solution of the primal problem. Further numerical calibrations and simulations for both the portfolio weight and the value functions illustrate the robustness of the optimal portfolio towards the manager's risk attitude, which allows different managers with various risk characteristics to sell essentially the same investment vehicle. Simulation studies also indicate that the policy of charging a substantial terminal‐only management fee can be replaced by another one with only a negligible amount over the interim period, which substantially reduces the total management fee paid by the clients without lowering the manager's satisfaction at all; this last observation echoes the magic of the alchemy of finance.

THE PERCEPTION OF SIGNIFICANT ASPECTS OF PERSONNEL RISK IN THE MANAGEMENT OF SMEs

Research background: The issue of personnel risk management has received less attention from scholars than other types of managerial risks. Employees represent important capital for an enterprise, which can significantly influence its performance and success Purpose of the article: The aim of the study is to present and quantify significant factors of personnel risk in the SME sector. Part of the goal is to compare entrepreneurs’ approaches to these factors based on company size and the entrepreneurs’ education and age. Methods: The empirical research was conducted on a sample of 250 respondents from Slovakia via an online questionnaire. The statistical hypotheses were tested using descriptive statistics (percentages) and Pearson’s statistics (chi-square and Z-score). Findings & Value added: The research confirmed that personnel risk posed a significant business risk for SMEs, as up to 32 % of all the respondents rated this risk as unacceptable. Neither employee turnover nor employees’ error rate level represented a significant problem for SMEs at the time of the study. Only a small proportion of the respondents agreed with the opinion that their employees attempted to improve their performance, and that competition prevailed among them. The research demonstrated that some differences in entrepreneurs’ overall attitudes related to their age and education. Additionally, differences were identified in the entrepreneurs’ positive attitudes towards individual claims based on their education and age. Meanwhile, the results show that the issue of personnel management in the effective management of personnel risks in the SME environment could be an exciting issue for scientific research.

Mitigating transaction risk for cross-border e-commerce firms: A multiagent-based simulation study

The industry of cross-border electronic commerce (CBEC) has experienced rapid development in recent years, however it has also faced severe challenges concerning the managerial risks taking place across national borders. The aims of the study are two folds: first examine the effects of applying different risk mitigation strategies on the market performance of international online vendors (IOVs) and utilities of consumers; second explore whether consumers’ choices among vendors from different nations based on psychic distance are affected by the risk mitigation strategies of platforms or by the actual frequency of vendors making default moves. A dynamic simulation has been conducted based on four combinations of platform strategies determined by two dimensions of ex ante intervention and ex post investigation. The results indicate that (i) once increasing the frequency of ex post investigation of risk events, customers will suffer less default losses, and both IOVs and customers will gain more utilities; (ii) the profits of ordinary vendors will increase marginally when reducing the frequency of ex ante intervention of high-risk orders, causing a lower degree of shopping concentration; (iii) when platforms adopt risk mitigation strategies of more frequent intervention or higher investigation intensity toward IOVs, the psychic distances of consumers towards IOVs from the same nation and from relatively closer nations become closer.

Managing stakeholder relationships for improved situation awareness during volcanic emergencies: An Eastern Caribbean case study

During periods of volcanic unrest, civil authorities around the world depend on information from scientists to guide their decision making. In some instances, limited experience among these authorities cause scientists to take on decision-making responsibility usually reserved for non-scientists. These actions increase the managerial risks faced by scientists as they can lose credibility and could be legally liable for the negative outcomes. Using semi-structured interviews and content analysis we sought to understand how scientists at The UWI Seismic Research Centre (UWI-SRC) managed scientific communication at the science-management interface during volcanic emergencies in the Eastern Caribbean. Thematic analysis of the interviews yielded two major themes: (1) communication practice and (2) stakeholder relationships. Our findings indicate that strong relationships between volcano scientists and authorities coupled with purpose driven communication methods can improve decision making capacity among public officials, reducing public vulnerability. To reduce managerial risk, we propose the prioritisation of situation awareness when communicating volcanic hazard information. We present a format for scientific advisories based on the three levels of situation awareness: perception, comprehension and projection. A case is also made for the role of routine science-emergency management interaction in facilitating effective hazard communication.

ИНТЕЛЛЕКТ-КАРТЫ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ РАЗВИТИЯ АНАЛИТИЧЕСКОГО ИНСТРУМЕНТАРИЯ И КЛАССИФИКАЦИИ ПРЕДПРИНИМАТЕЛЬСКИХ РИСКОВ

Abstract. A risk management system is needed at all levels of economic management. This task is especially relevant at the level of management of the enterprise economy in the context of the emergence of new challenges and threats to its development. The assessment of new types of business risks is based on the conceptual approaches to their classification described in the article. The existing classifications in the literature are not without drawbacks: there is confusion and duplication of classification features, the incomplete nature of the enumeration and the consideration of various types of risks and classification features is noted. The toolkit proposed by the author allows you to circumvent the identified shortcomings and offers a flexible toolkit with softer settings. The purpose of this study is to build a classification of business risks based on their systematization using intelligence maps. The new results of the study, which differ from the publications in the field of accounting, analysis and audit available in the scientific and methodological literature, are the classification of business risks built by the author in the form of an intelligence map on seven grounds: using the concepts of diversification, levers, the development of public non-financial reporting, the maturity of counterparty risk management, external and internal factors; types of activities, cash flows, various methods of obtaining and processing initial quantitative information. The work is devoted to the development of modern analytical tools in the field of risk management, applied analytical methods of visualization and classification of business risks. The post-production classification allows to effectively manage the risks of economic entities. Responsibility and business efficiency, which is manifested in the consideration of environmental, social and managerial risks reflected not only in financial, but also in non-financial public reporting, become key factors for the success of modern business and the basis for its economic security.

Risk System and Railway Safety

When organizing transport processes on the railway, the most important component is the safety of railway traffic. Each country has a separate approach for assessing the safety of railway traffic on domestic railways. However, railway safety and other modes of transport is associated with technical or managerial risks. Assessment of the safety condition of traffic on Ukrainian railways is carried out by absolute and specific indicators resulting from statistical data. So far as the existing methodology for assessing the level of railway traffic safety does not provide a real and adequate picture, the problem of developing a risk system is relevant. The paper presents a risk system for assessing the level of actual and predicted safety of railway traffic. The risk system includes general, local, technological and technical risks. Each risk has a quantitative characteristic and can be applied to assess the safety of the railway traffic. The developed risk system is implemented as an application program and implemented at the railway enterprises of Ukraine. The presented system of risks and their posterior and priori values allow us to characterize the real state of railway traffic safety for the study period. Based on the obtained values of posteriori and priori risks, it is possible to characterize the actual and predicted safety of the railway traffic.