Future Risk Management Research Articles

Hydrophobic Surface Coating Can Reduce Toxicity of Zinc Oxide Nanoparticles to the Marine Copepod Tigriopus japonicus.

Coated zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO-NPs) are more commonly applied in commercial products but current risk assessments mostly focus on bare ZnO-NPs. To investigate the impacts of surface coatings, this study examined acute and chronic toxicities of six chemicals, including bare ZnO-NPs, ZnO-NPs with three silane coatings of different hydrophobicity, zinc oxide bulk particles (ZnO-BKs), and zinc ions (Zn-IONs), toward a marine copepod, Tigriopus japonicus. In acute tests, bare ZnO-NPs and hydrophobic ZnO-NPs were less toxic than hydrophilic ZnO-NPs. Analyses of the copepod's antioxidant gene expression suggested that such differences were governed by hydrodynamic size and ion dissolution of the particles, which affected zinc bioaccumulation in copepods. Conversely, all test particles, except the least toxic hydrophobic ZnO-NPs, shared similar chronic toxicity as Zn-IONs because they mostly dissolved into zinc ions at low test concentrations. The metadata analysis, together with our test results, further suggested that the toxicity of coated metal-associated nanoparticles could be predicted by the hydrophobicity and density of their surface coatings. This study evidenced the influence of surface coatings on the physicochemical properties, toxicity, and toxic mechanisms of ZnO-NPs and provided insights into the toxicity prediction of coated nanoparticles from their coating properties to improve their future risk assessment and management.

VEdge_Detector: automated coastal vegetation edge detection using a convolutional neural network

ABSTRACT Coastal communities, land covers, and intertidal habitats are vulnerable receptors of erosion, flooding or both in combination. This vulnerability is likely to increase with sea level rise and greater storminess over future decadal-scale time periods. The accurate, rapid, and wide-scale determination of shoreline position, and its migration, is therefore imperative for future coastal risk adaptation and management. This paper develops and applies an automated tool, VEdge_Detector, to extract the coastal vegetation line from high spatial resolution (Planet’s 3 to 5 m) remote-sensing imagery, training a very deep convolutional neural network (holistically nested edge detection), to predict sequential vegetation line locations on annual to decadal timescales. Red, green, and near-infrared (RG-NIR) was found to be the optimum image spectral band combination during neural network training and validation. The VEdge_Detector outputs were compared with vegetation lines derived from ground-referenced positional measurements and manually digitized aerial photographs, which were used to ascertain a mean distance error of <6 m (two image pixels) and >84% producer accuracy (P A) at six out of the seven sites. Extracting vegetation lines from Planet imagery of the rapidly retreating cliffed coastline at Covehithe, Suffolk, United Kingdom, has identified a landward retreat rate >3 m year−1 (2010–2020). Plausible vegetation lines were successfully retrieved from images in The Netherlands and Australia, which were not used to train the neural network, although significant areas of exposed rocky coastline proved to be less well recovered by VEdge_Detector. The method therefore promises the possibility of generalizing to estimate retreat of sandy coastlines from Planet imagery in otherwise data-poor areas, which lack ground-referenced measurements. Vegetation line outputs derived from VEdge_Detector are produced rapidly and efficiently compared to more traditional non-automated methods. These outputs also have the potential to inform upon a range of future coastal risk management decisions, incorporating future shoreline change.

Risk Management on Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Adherence of Men Who Have Sex with Multiple Men: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BackgroundMen who have sex with multiple men (MSMM) belong to a high-risk group for HIV infection, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective measure to prevent the infection. However, few studies on PrEP adherence by MSMM in China exist. We aimed to explore the protective motivation-related factors for PrEP adherence in an HIV-negative MSMM population in Western China and to provide a reference for future risk management and effective prevention strategies.MethodsData were collected from a 2-year follow-up cohort study of PrEP in MSM in China. Rogers’ protective motivation theory (PMT) was used to study the PrEP adherence of MSMM, and logistic regression was performed to analyze the influencing factors of PrEP adherence.ResultsA total of 496 MSMM were included in the study: 299 (60.28%) of them in the good adherence group and 197 (39.72%) in the poor adherence group. The threat assessment scores of the good and poor adherence groups were 2.15 ± 0.59 and 2.06 ± 0.47, respectively, and the response assessment scores were 2.81 ± 0.62 and 2.74 ±0.62, respectively. Poor PrEP adherence was associated with on-demand PrEP medication (OR=0.670), students at school (OR=1.837), occasional condom use (OR=1.621), and good HIV knowledge (OR= 0.659). The higher the threat assessment score, the higher the susceptibility; and the lower the response cost, the stronger the protection motivation and the less likely MSMM were to have poor adherence.ConclusionOn-demand PrEP medication is more conducive to adherence. Preventive management should focus on MSMMs who are students at school, those who occasionally use condoms, and those with poor HIV knowledge. Improving threat perception and susceptibility, and controlling and reducing the response cost can effectively improve PrEP adherence, and the subsequent application of PMT during intervention research can provide a reference for HIV prevention in MSMM.

COVID-19: the winter lockdown strategy in five European nations

European lockdown strategies over the winter of 2020 have brought into sharp relief the need for effective strategies to reduce the rate of COVID-19 transmission and lower the rate of hospitalisations and deaths. Understanding exactly how European nations have arrived at this point, and the process by which they have done this, is key to learning constructive lessons for future pandemic risk management. Bringing together experience from across five European nations (the UK, France, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland), this paper outlines what has occurred between September 2020 and mid-January 2021. Our analysis draws out several themes important to understanding the different national risk management approaches adopted, namely: the extent to which lessons were learned or overlooked from the first wave of the pandemic; the relationship between science and policy; the speed and responsiveness of policy decisions; and differing levels of reliance on individual responsibility for safeguarding public health. Subsequently, we recommended that: there is more involvement of decision scientists and risk analysts in COVID-19 decision making, who have largely been absent thus far; the epidemiological science should be followed where possible, but when value judgments are made this should be clearly and transparently communicated; proactive measures avoiding policy delay should be followed to reduce the rate of infection and excess deaths; governments must avoid confusing or inconsistent regional implementation and communication of interventions; rebuilding public trust is key to promoting public compliance and support for COVID-19 health measures; overreliance on individual responsibility as the focus of non-pharmaceutical interventions should be avoided; public compliance with COVID-19 restrictions requires pre-tested simple messages; open and consistent engagement with local leaders and officials should become a mainstay of government efforts to help ensure consistent adoption of nationwide COVID-19 policy measures.

Tailored flood risk management: Accounting for socio-economic and cultural differences when designing strategies

Climate change and socio-economic development result in increasing flood risk which challenges flood risk management policy making and practice. Each situation, however, is different and calls for not only understanding the natural context, but also the socio-economic and cultural context. Only then Flood Risk Management strategies can be designed that are not only 1) fit for purpose but also 2) feasible for local implementation and 3) sustainable into the future. Flood consequences that are accepted in some cultures (fatalist), may not be acceptable in other cultures (controlist). This calls for considering the local normative context in order to understand current differences in policy and practice. More importantly, the design of strategic alternatives for Flood Risk Management into the future should consider this socio-economic and cultural context as well because not every society aims for the same goals in the same proportion, nor is equally willing or capable to implement and maintain sophisticated infrastructure and dedicated institutions. Based on literature on cultural theory and national cultures, we hypothesized that acknowledging socio-economic and cultural differences would allow to better appreciate the rationale of current flood risk management policies and practices in different parts of the world. By analysing cases related to Deltares projects abroad, we explored whether these factors explain the main differences observed. Based on this preliminary exploration, we propose a shortlist of factors to consider when designing future flood risk management strategies tailored to local socio-economic and cultural contexts.

New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning\u2014case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany

Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.

Analyse, Enhance and Reiterate Risk management strategies, implemented in Information Technology Project Management, amidst COVID-19

The global perspective of human life drastically changed after the spread of COVID-19. The world reduced itself, to a digital cocoon. Education, work, commerce, shopping, industry, sales - all walks of life, transformed mostly into a digital mode. The IT (Information Technology) and ITES (IT Enabled services) saw a tremendous transformation in the operational aspects. ‘WFH (Work from Home)’ enabled the resources to work from their preferred locations. These factors increased the risk of data management and data security. The security of the network and the personal devices used to handle the sensitive and confidential data aggregated the risk factors in project management. The significant challenges faced by the IT sector project management were (1)Global Travel restrictions (2) Forecast of Global Recession in near future and resultant minimization of budget allocated to new projects (3)Negative growth Impact from multiple domains, resulting in reduction of new projects and reducing the scope for existing ones (4)Initial adaptation glitches due to the quantum leap in the digital channels (5)Manage constant fluctuating attitudes and anxieties of employees on personal aspects, job security, drastic change in work environment(6) Unprecedented and unpredictable exorbitant influence of macro environment in the routine enterprise activities. The chances of non-availability of critical resource due to health issues, the network issues faced in the remote locations, the unpredictable exposure of data - all these were contributing elements that increased the risk management complexity. In future, many IT companies have decided to operate mainly in the WFH mode as the operational expenses are drastically reduced. The implementation of efficient and effective risk management strategies become crucial considering the long-term implementation of ‘not from office’ operating model. The trust of the multinational clients, commitment of meeting the deadlines, maintaining the confidentiality and sensitivity of data, protecting the unintended intrusion from the digital malicious practices - all are the additional significant risks and challenges, as the probability for the occurrence of these events have increased exponentially due to the latest work arrangements. This paper attempts to evaluate the current risk mitigation strategies and analyse the gaps in the current system. The aim is to effectively manage the upcoming threats and risks in the long-term implementation of the current working (WFH) scenarios. The overall objective of the paper is to (1) analyse the present-day risks (2) evaluate the contemporary ideas that could be modified into solid framework for better risk mitigation strategies in long-term (3) what to anticipate in the future risk analysis and management processes related to IT Project Management.

Characterizing potential risk triggered by road traffic noise in comparison with typical air pollutants NO2 and PM2.5.

Characterizing multiple risk stemming from automobiles are required from the viewpoint of priority setting for future risk management. However, little is known about such issues given the inadequacy of indicators. In this research, with the illustration of the metropolitan city of Osaka, Japan, using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), impacts of road traffic noise and exhausts gas (nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5)) were quantified and compared with the risks of ischemic heart disease and high sleep disturbance; and respiratory disease as endpoints, respectively. Health risks due to automobile noise were 3102.1 and 97.8 DALYs under the condition of open and closed windows, respectively. The health risks were reduced by 96.8% under closed-window condition. On the other hand, the health risks caused by NO2 and PM2.5 from automobiles were 137.6 DALYs, which was lower than the health risks due to automobile noise. These results indicate the effectiveness of DALYs as an indicator to characterize different kinds of burden of health and environmental impacts from automobiles, and they were successfully used to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction options such as the difference between open and closed windows. Furthermore, most people were found to have been exposed to 55–60 dB noise level. Although they easily get used to and can tolerate this level, it is also the stage at which health risks begin to occur. Therefore, with continuous exposure, qualitative estimation showed that open windows under this noise level subsequently leads to high potential health risks.

Modeling estrogenic activity in streams throughout the Potomac and Chesapeake Bay watersheds.

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs), specifically estrogenic endocrine-disrupting compounds, vary in concentration and composition in surface waters under the influence of different landscape sources and landcover gradients. Estrogenic activity in surface waters may lead to adverse effects in aquatic species at both individual and population levels, often observed through the presence of intersex and vitellogenin induction in male fish. In the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, located on the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA, intersex has been observed in several sub-watersheds where previous studies have identified specific landscape sources of EDCs in tandem with observed fish health effects. Previous work in the Potomac River Watershed (PRW), the largest basin within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, was leveraged to build random forest regression models to predict estrogenic activity at unsampled reaches in both the Potomac River and larger Chesapeake Bay Watersheds (CBW). Model outputs including important variables, partial dependence plots, and predicted values of estrogenic activity at unsampled reaches provide insight into drivers of estrogenic activity at different seasons and scales. Using the US Environmental Protection Agency effects-based threshold of 1.0ng/L 17 β-estradiol equivalents, catchments predicted to exceed this value were categorized as at risk for adverse effects from exposure to estrogenic compounds and evaluated relative to healthy watersheds and recreation access locations throughout the PRW. Results show immediate catchment scale models are more reliable than upstream models, and the best predictive variables differ by season and scale. A small percentage of healthy watersheds (< 13%) and public access sites were classified as at risk using the "Total" (annual) model in the CBW. This study is the first Potomac River Watershed assessment of estrogenic activity, providing a new foundation for future risk assessment and management design efforts, with additional context provided for the entire Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Genetic Testing and Risk Stratification.

Our knowledge of the genetic basis and molecular pathogenesis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) continues to evolve. We describe the genetic basis of HCM, recent advances in genetic testing and the role of genetics in guiding risk stratification and management, both now and in the future. While initially thought to be an exclusively Mendelian disease, we now know there are important HCM sub-groups. A proportion will have sarcomere variants as the cause of their disease, while others will have genetic variants in genes that can give rise to conditions that can mimic HCM. The role of genetics is primarily for cascade genetic testing, though there is emerging evidence of a role for prognosis and patient management. Genetic testing is a useful addition to management. Genotype may play a greater role in risk stratification, management, treatment and prognosis in future, offering improved outcomes for patients and their families with HCM.

Antitrust Harm and Causation

How should plaintiffs show harm from antitrust violations? The inquiry naturally breaks into two issues: first, what is the nature of the harm? and second, what does proof of causation require? The best criterion for assessing harm is likely or reasonably anticipated output effects. Antitrust’s goal should be output as high as is consistent with sustainable competition. The standard for proof of causation then depends on two things: the identity of the enforcer and the remedy that the plaintiff is seeking. It does not necessarily depend on which antitrust statute the plaintiff is seeking to enforce. For public agencies, enforcement involves both the condemnation of past harm and the management of future risks. The concern, as in most areas of public enforcement, is with behavior that is likely to have harmful anticompetitive consequences unless it is restrained. While a showing of actual harm has evidentiary importance, in most cases the public authorities need not show that the harm has actually occurred, but only that the challenged conduct poses an unreasonable danger that it will occur. By contrast, private enforcers operate under stricter causation requirements that require an actual injury for damages actions, or individually threatened injury for an injunction. These differences are explicit in the various federal statutes that authorize enforcement actions. They are also similar to the division of requirements in the legal system generally, particularly in the distinction between public criminal law and the private law of tortious conduct.

Left atrial thrombus: Rare and unusual presentation of Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection: A case Report

Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a common organism responsible for pediatric community-acquired pneumonia. Extrapulmonary complications including thrombosis, although rare, are known to be associated with severe M. pneumoniae pneumonia. We report the case of left atrial thrombus extending into right inferior pulmonary vein in a child with severe M. pneumoniae probably due to transient Antiphospholipid Antibodies (aPL). Pneumonia and thrombus were completely resolved after the treatment with antimicrobial and anticoagulant therapy in 3 months. aPL are more common in M. pneumoniae infections; hence, routine screening will be helpful to quantify the incidence of aPL as well as to plan future risk assessment and management strategies.

Calculating Risks: Understanding the 2020 Election Experience and Defining the "New Normal"

The 2020 election revealed the interdependence of election systems and the risk management challenges of decentralization. Future risk management will need an update to deal with new threats, both complexity and adversary driven.

Synchronicity Management: Mitigating Supply Chain Risks by Systematically Taking Demand Changes as Starting Point—A Lesson From the COVID-19 Crisis

Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on supply management, this article identifies “synchronicity management” as a novel supply risk management strategy. Synchronicity management synchronizes the supply chain with customer demand. In this way, overreactions to crises can be prevented. First, we introduce the supply risk management model from Hoffmann et al. (2013) and use this model to analyze our results from 26 interviews on supply management implications of the corona crisis with companies in a Central European region. Based on this, we derive suggestions for holistically improving future supply risk management processes and derive four propositions on how to manage crisis from a supply perspective. In addition, we explore implications for supply risk management from a strategic and operative point of view. In this context, we present a tool on how procurement can synchronize the supply chain with customer demand changes. Finally, future trends in supply chain risk and resilience management are being analyzed.

A Copula-Based Multivariate Probability Analysis for Flash Flood Risk under the Compound Effect of Soil Moisture and Rainfall

Flash floods can be characterized by several variables. Of these, soil moisture (SM) is an important environmental factor that plays a key role in hydrological and ecological processes and affects the mechanisms that cause flash floods. To more accurately determine the occurrence probability of flash floods, the combined effects of soil moisture and rainfall indexes were considered in this paper, and the copula function approach was explored for use in joint probability analyses of flash flood risks. The results showed that (1) the Clayton copula function offered the best fit for the bivariate joint distribution and captured the occurrence probability of the combination of both peak flow (PF) and SM, while the t-copula function achieved the best fit for the multivariate joint distribution, which presented different combinations of characteristic flash flood parameters. (2) The joint distribution probability of flash floods increased with increasing risk parameter thresholds. Return period analysis indicated that the return periods of the bivariate joint distribution were smaller than those of the multivariate joint distribution. (3) If PF and SM are fixed, the occurrence probability of flash floods is higher in regions where the maximum 1-h rainfall is higher. This study provides an effective and quantitative approach to improving flash flood prediction and advances the application of this approach for the management of future flash flood risks.

Effect of Built Environment on Health Dimensions during the Quarantine: A Cross-Sectional Study Following the Covid-19 Pandemic in Iran

INTRODUCTION: The imposition of quarantine in pandemics brings about negative psychological consequences. Sufficient understanding based on environmental and behavioral sciences leads to the prediction of needs and preparedness. Given the role of housing and the environment on health, awareness of their effects on the COVID-19 pandemic will facilitate future actions and risk management planning. METHODS: The present cross-sectional exploratory study was conducted based on a mixed-method approach. In the qualitative section, participants who were selected by non-probability sampling method were interviewed via phone, and data collection continued until data saturation using the snowball method. A number of 27 telephone interviews were conducted and after the content analysis of unorganized data, the questionnaire was developed in three parts, the initial pilot was conducted on 30 participants, and Cronbachchr('39')s alpha was calculated at 0.76. Moreover, 144 online questionnaires were completed in What’sApp virtual groups by purposive and available sampling method, followed by statistical analysis. FINDINGS: As evidenced by the obtained results, in house and interior design scales, surface area; furniture; color; opening and outdoor space as well as living space and in neighborhood scale, density indicators; shared accesses and spaces have positively affected the tolerance of quarantine, reduction of anxiety, and health improvement. Furthermore, stress-reducing places were found to be different in different age groups. In addition, some motivations have generated some new behaviors and needs which are supported by such affordances as openings and windows to open spaces for the provision of natural daylight and ventilation, as well as a specific open space for movement, nature enjoyment, activity, physical activity, and contact with the natural environment. CONCLUSION: There was a reciprocal relationship between behavioral orientations and environmental-physical aspects of housing in the current health crisis. The residential environment can influence disease prevention and the promotion of health-related behaviors.

Removal and formation of perfluoroalkyl substances in Canadian sludge treatment systems – A mass balance approach

Poly- and per-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are an emerging class of anthropogenic contaminants whose occurrence has raised concerns with the beneficial reuse of biosolids from wastewater treatment. This study evaluated the behavior of thirteen PFAS in nine Canadian sludge treatment systems including pelletization, alkaline stabilization, aerobic and anaerobic digestion processes. The composition of the overall PFAS-fluorine (ΣPFAS-F) loading in a system fed with only primary sludge was dominated by perfluorodecanoate (PFDA), whereas systems with blended primary and waste activated sludge feeds had a mix of short and long chain PFAS in raw sludges and treated biosolids. An increase in average ΣPFAS-F mass flow was observed through pelletization (19% formation) and alkaline stabilization (99% formation) processes indicating negative removal or contaminant formation. One of the two aerobic digestion systems and three of the five anaerobic digestion systems showed modest reductions (< 40% removal) in ΣPFAS-F loading. Long chain PFAS such as perfluorodecanoate (PFDA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) exhibited a wide variation in behavior ranging from substantial formation (> 75% formation) to modest removal (42% removal) in the surveyed systems while short chain perfluoropentanoate (PFPeA) mass flows increased through the three systems where they occurred. Overall, the contaminant mass balances revealed that there were significant changes in mass flows of the target PFAS through all kinds of sludge treatment systems. The results of this study on PFAS fate through sludge processing can inform future global PFAS risk management activities as well as sludge treatment considerations.

Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River

Reliable hazard analysis is crucial in the flood risk management of river basins. For the floodplains of large, developed rivers, flood hazard analysis often needs to account for the complex hydrology of multiple tributaries and the potential failure of dikes. Estimating this hazard using deterministic methods ignores two major aspects of large-scale risk analysis: the spatial–temporal variability of extreme events caused by tributaries, and the uncertainty of dike breach development. Innovative stochastic methods are here developed to account for these uncertainties and are applied to the Po River in Italy. The effects of using these stochastic methods are compared against deterministic equivalents, and the methods are combined to demonstrate applications for an overall stochastic hazard analysis. The results show these uncertainties can impact extreme event water levels by more than 2 m at certain channel locations, and also affect inundation and breaching patterns. The combined hazard analysis allows for probability distributions of flood hazard and dike failure to be developed, which can be used to assess future flood risk management measures.

Looking at trends in high flows at a local scale: The case study of Wallonia (Belgium)

Study Region84 catchments across the Walloon region of Belgium Study FocusThis study aims at analysing trends in high flows by examining annual maxima (AM), peaks over threshold (POTs) and the number of peaks per year (frequency). Trends were identified using statistical tests (regression analysis, Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests). New Hydrological Insights for the RegionAlmost 12 % of the sites show a trend in the magnitude of AM and frequency, and 6% show a trend in the magnitude of POTs. Globally, more negative trends have been detected, but the proportion of positive trends is higher in the Scheldt catchment than in the Meuse catchment. The results of nonstationary analysis indicate important changes in the magnitude of the 100-year flood (up to 18 % increase/11 % decrease in 10 years) and the frequency of peak flows (up to 42 % increase/31 % decrease). These changes could therefore impact future flood risk management in Wallonia. However, the time-series are short (30–50 years) and some uncertainty remains. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for the trends is essential to obtain better estimates of future flood flows. A first analysis of potential drivers reveals that changes in precipitation match the trends in high flows, and lower snowfall quantities and higher evapotranspiration rate, caused by the increase in temperature, could have contributed to the decrease in high flows in some regions.

How does increasing impervious surfaces affect urban flooding in response to climate variability?

Total impervious area (TIA) is one of the most common measures for predicting runoff yield in hydrologic studies and regulating urbanization in land use policy. Directly connected impervious area (DCIA), a subset of TIA, represents the hydraulic connection between development and underground sewer systems. Which indicator to use in runoff prediction has been subject to debate. The effectiveness of TIA and DCIA in the face of climate variability also remains unclear. The present study empirically assessed the impacts of TIA and DCIA on urban runoff in three metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. state of Texas. The total monthly runoff depths of 92 watersheds and peak flows of 43 watersheds were computed using streamflow monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2010 to 2017. A series of ordinal logit regression models were developed to determine which imperviousness indicator better predicted probable runoff yield. Additionally, an average marginal effect analysis was performed to investigate how TIA and DCIA responded to changing precipitation depths. The results demonstrate that DCIA outperformed TIA in runoff depth prediction, whereas TIA predicted peak flow better than DCIA. However, for far-above-average runoff, the contribution of DCIA to runoff depth was far greater than that of TIA, but no difference was found for peak flow. The effectiveness of TIA and DCIA also varied by total and 24-hour peak depths of monthly precipitation. After reaching their maximum capacity, both TIA and DCIA became less effective in predicting runoff and did not correlate with rainfall depth in extremely wet months. Meanwhile, the control of TIA and DCIA for runoff volume reduction was most effective for monthly rainfall of a 5% to 10% probability of exceedance in all MSAs, whereas that of peak flow reduction was most effective if the 24-hour peak storm in a month had a 2% to 5% probability of exceedance. The findings of this study demonstrate the hydrologic significance of regulating DCIA over TIA for high-risk runoff under certain rainfall depths and return periods. The study expands the current knowledge of urban hydrology for effective stormwater management and mitigation of future flooding risk.