Male Labor Force Participation Research Articles

Home Production Market Production and the Changing Allocation of Consumption Expenditures on Service

This article studies the determinants of the quantity of services purchased by consumers in the US over the period 1949–85. Price and income elasticities useful for assessing the likely future demand for services are derived. The theoretical model and empirical estimates differ from traditional approaches by considering, as parameters in the demand function, changes in male and female labour force participation rates and hours worked. One interesting implication of this model is that it permits estimating the shifr of home production of services into market production and therefore an empirical assessment of the degree to which national income growth has been overestimated in the post- war years.

Interdependency of personal savings and labour force participation of the elderly, and social security wealth: A time series analysis

Using Japanese annual time series data covering the period 1950–1982, our study shows that social security wealth during this period depressed personal savings. As a result, there was a reduction of approximately 79000 yen of wealth per capitain real terms from 1960 to 1980. However, the declining labour force participation of elderly males, (brought about, for example, by earlier retirement), stimulated personal savings by an estimated 13000 yen over the same period. The results indicate that the benefit effect tends to outweigh the retirement effect. Furthermore, this study has identified a negative interdependency between the level of personal savings and the retirement behaviour of elderly males. A typical male worker saves more before retirement if that individual expects to stay a shorter time in the labour market. Retirement behaviour is less responsive to a change in personal savings behaviour than vice versa

Male and female labour force participation in New Zealand 1965–1990: A cointegration analysis

This paper analyses the economic and demographic factors affecting the labour force participation of males and females in New Zealand from 1965–1990. The recently developed econometric technique of cointegration is used to establish the long‐run factors related to labour force participation. Error correction models are also estimated to explain the dynamic behaviour. The results for male labour force participation show a positive long‐run relationship between real after‐tax wage rates and participation, while transfer payments from Government, the rate of unemployment and income from sources other than salaries and wages are negatively related to male participation. The female labour force participation is found to be negatively related to the rate of unemployment, the proportion of the population under fifteen, and income from other sources but positively related to the proportion of female students in tertiary education and, to a lesser extent, the real after‐tax wage rate.

Residential Segregation and Links to Minority Poverty: The Case of Latinos in the United States

This paper examines the relationship between residential segregation and rising Latino poverty and income inequality between 1970 and 1980. The research (1) ascertains the effects of increasing and sustained higher levels of Latino/Anglo segregation on poverty rates and income inequality, (2) assesses the effects of increasing and high levels of Latino/Anglo segregation on concentration in inner-city poverty areas, and (3) empirically tests the effects of changing levels of segregation, economic restructuring, and characteristics of the Latino population on increased Latino poverty and income inequality. Changes in Latino poverty rates and income inequality are examined for the 58 metropolitan areas with populations of 25,000 or more Latinos in 1980. Multivariate analysis reveals that residence in the more segregated metropolitan areas was a significant predictor of Latino poverty but was not significant in predicting Latino/Anglo income inequality. Changes in local labor market conditions had little effect on Latino poverty and income inequality, but changing Latino labor force characteristics—particularly increasing educational attainment, declining male labor force participation, and rising female labor force participation—were associated with decreases in poverty and reductions in income inequality. Residence in the Northeast was the most significant predictor of Latino poverty and income inequality. Furthermore, growth of the Latino population, increasing Latino suburbanization, and changes in the ethnic composition to include a growing proportion of non-Mexicans were also significant predictors of poverty status and income differentials

Labour force and changing age structure in selected developed countries: A comparative study

The authors examine the effects of demographic aging and the changing age structure on the labor force in the United States, Canada, and Japan over the period from 1950 to 1980. They find that "the changing age structure and population aging have generally had a favorable effect on the proportion of labour force or crude labour force rate.... The remarkable feature was the rate effect of the female labour force, which was positive and often substantially reinforced the positive age effect.... The proportion of the female labour force soared during the 1960s and 1970s in these countries, and a dramatic convergence of male and female labour force participation rates took place."

Labour market conditions and labour force participation: the case of the Netherlands

We develop a model to explain the relationship between unemployment and labour-force participation by males and females in The Netherlands. Following recent advances in the literature, a distinction is made between temporary and permanent unemployment. Our findings indicate that male labour-force participation is significantly influenced by the temporary unemployment variable, while permanent unemployment does not seem to play a significant part. For females we find the opposite.

The labor force participation of elderly males in Japan

The estimated elasticity of the probability of retirement with respect to social security retirement benefits declines as individuals age. The negative impact of social security retirement benefits on full-time workers is much greater than the impact on part-time workers for all age groups. The earnings test in Japan is, therefore, more effective for full-time workers than for part-time workers among the elderly. Social security retirement benefits also provide the elderly with an incentive to prolong their unemployment status. The marginal effect of the market unemployment rate on full-time work is significantly larger than that on part-time work and both effects are negative. The elasticity of retirement with respect to the market unemployment rate for those in their 60s is two to three times larger than for those aged 70 and over. The labor force behavior of those in their 60s is quite responsive to changes in labor market conditions. The results also suggest that family and environmental surroundings have significant influences on the labor force participation of the elderly in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 1990, 4(1), pp. 1–23. National Bureau of Economic Research, 269 Mercer Street, New York, New York 10003, and Department of Economics, Rutgers-The State University, Camden, New Jersey 08102.

Public Transfers: Safety Net or Inducement into Poverty?

A number of scholars contend that recent increases in economic dependency and poverty htave been stimulated by overly generous public assistance. Cash and noncash transfers and the eligibility guidelines that govern their distribution purportedly discourage employment antd encourage the rise of female-headed families. These arguments and alternative hypotheses are examined through time series analyses. The restults are mixed. On the one hand, the combined package of cash and noncash transfers is modestly related to the rise of female headship and economic dependency and more strongly related to declines in the labor force participation of young nonwhite males. On tle othter 1nhand, cash transfers reduce poverty. Though the current welare system is fraughlt with a nttumber of shortcomings, we find that culture-of-poverty explanations of post-1970 increases in econtomic dependency and poverty are not very powerful. A more comprehensive theory is called for. Such a theory needs to explain how structural changes in our econtomy are affecting economic opportunity. It has long been argued that poverty is better understood as a cultural rather than an economic problem (see Coser's [19651 discussion of Simmel [1908] or Harrington [1984:144]). Banfield (1968) and Gilder (1980) can fairly be characterized as the cornerstones of recent contributions to this line of reasoning. According to Gilder (1980:12), real poverty is less a state of income than a state of mind. That is, the seed of poverty is a fatalistic mind-set wherein people give up on themselves as providers for their families. The availability of transfers that approach or exceed the value of earnings that many individuals are able to secure in the labor market reinforces such fatalism. The poor person becomes economically insignificant, so he or she does not have an important role in providing for themselves or their family. In this way poverty is sustained by the unilateral transfer of wealth from the state to the poor. This stigmatizes the poor in the eyes of the public. More importantly, the poor come to accept the stigma and view themselves as best suited to a life of welfare-dependency. They leam to view the labor market as a hostile environment in which they are more likely to fail than succeed. Welfare softens the hardship of not achieving economic self-sufficiency and thereby reinforces the motivation to minimize contact with the labor market. In addition, poor women with children can be denied certain benefits if they have an employed spouse. Thus, welfare discourages two-parent families and labor force participation among the poor. Consequently, economic dependency, or latent *1 would like to thank Elwood Carlson, Beth Ghiloni, Darla Ladkau, Bruce Mayhew, Miller McPherson, Patrick Nolan, Ken Shin, John Skvoretz, Shelley Smith, Lynn Smith-Lovin, Lala Steelman, Robert Stewart, Donald Tomaskovic-Devey, and the anonymous reviewers of this article for their criticisms and assistance. Address correspondence to the author, Department of Sociology, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208. 0 The University of North Carolina Press Social Forces, March 1990, 68(3):813-834 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.111 on Mon, 08 Aug 2016 04:34:30 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 814 / Social Forces 68:3, March 1990 poxverty to use Murray's (1984) term, and the official rate of poverty are pushed ulp.? Many scholars reject these arguments as ideologically inspired attempts to justify a hands off governmental policy toward the poor (e.g., Harrington 1984; Piven & Cloward 1982). Indeed, much of the research literature fails to support the contention that welfare has a largely pernicious impact on the poor. For instance, the review article by Danziger, Haveman, and Plotnick (1981) and recent collections by Danziger and Weinberg (1986) and Tomaskovic-Devey (1988a) point to a wide array of evidence that suggests that public transfers, despite their many shortcomings, improve the quality of life of the poor. But the culture-of-poverty perspective is not without empirical support. Murray (1984) compiles a great deal of descriptive data that lend themselves to a culture-of-poverty interpretation. Numerous analyses of the negative income tax experiment also suggest the relevance of the culture-of-poverty critique of the welfare state (e.g., Robins 1985). In this article, we propose a model formulated from contemporary contributions to the culture-of-poverty school and alternative arguments put forth by a number of researchers. The model is examined empirically in an effort to discern the merits of conflicting positions in the welfare/poverty debate. Determinants of Family Structure, Work-effort, Economic Dependency, and

Socioeconomic Influences on Fertility in the Mexican Borderlands Region

El presente estudio analiza los efectos socioeconómicos en la fecundidad de los 272 municipios en los seis estados fronterizos de México durante 1980. Un modelo preliminar de fertilidad se prueba mediante análisis regresivo. Se genera un modelo modificado de fertilidad en la frontera que pone énfasis en las influencias del alfabetismo, la participación de la fuerza de trabajo, los ingresos y el desempleo.

Fertility determinants in the oil region of Mexico.

This study analyzes fertility determinants in the oil region of Mexico, consisting of the states of Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche. Data are from the 1980 Mexican census and the unit of analysis is the municipio. The regression models, in which the dependent variables of children ever born and child-woman ratio are examined, reveal religious variables to be most significant, with greater fertility for non-Catholics and persons with no religion than for Catholics. Also of great importance are economic variables. Literacy and urbanization, both "classical" Mexican fertility variables, reduce fertility. There are major differences among three urban/rural and three indigenous language subsamples. Results are discussed vis-a-vis demographic theories and prior research.

Spatial variation of the female and male labour force Participation in the Madrid Metropolitan Area

This study identifies the effect of that spatial variation in certain socio-demographic variables has on the distribution of Madrid Metropolitan area. This area is presently undergoing an economic restructuring process which, due to their different occupational structures, can affect the activity rates of men and women differently.

Male Labour Force Participation Following Illness or Injury

This paper develops a model of the disabled individual's labour force participation decision following illness or injury, and confronts it with data on the financial consequences of ill health. A utility function is specified which allows for the effect of changes in health on work-leisure preferences and is evaluated in relation to a household budget constraint. Estimation is through maximization of the appropriate likelihood function, correcting for self-selection bias within a switching regression model. Results are presented showing significant effects of financial variables on participation, and these are seen to vary with age, disability and income.

The spatial variation in unemployment and labour force participation rates of male and female workers.

This paper uses 1980 US census tract data from Boston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and St. Louis to examine spatial variation between male and female unemployment and labor force participation. Research shows that families and individuals with characteristics making them more prone to unemployment tend to live in central cities. Suburban workers living far from the city's center may also have higher unemployment rates due to higher job search and commuting costs. Female workers differ from male workers by earning less money, working fewer hours, and often, by valuing their travel time to work more highly. This study's variables include age, race, education, language, past migration experience, and occupation. In all of the unemployment equations, the percentage of black and education variables are highly significant. Distance variables are not significant in the overall unemployment equation, but distance is highly significant and positive in the female model: Women's unemployment rates are low for the central city and relatively high for suburban census tracts. Male unemployment is high in the central city, low in the suburbs, and becomes higher again at 10 miles distance from the center. The authors believe that job related information decreases as the worker moves farther from the central city. Labor force participation equations also show significant distance to have a detrimental effect on female participation but a positive effect on male participation. Demanding home roles may constrain womens' job choices; women are twice as likely as men to indicate self-imposed job location and work hour limitations. This paper's results suggest that unemployment reduction tactics such as improving transportation will affect male workers more than female workers, and may affect men and women differently. Continued research needs to consider the enormous increase in female labor force participation and develop economic theories appropriate for 2-earner households.

Cutbacks in Disability Transfer Programs

The large growth in disability transfer program beneficiaries and expenditures from 1965-1978 and the sizable decrease in older male labor force participation has led to public concern about both the incentive effects of and the budgetary expenditures for these programs. The Reagan administration has discussed two paths toward reducing disability benefit expenditures: removing individuals from the rolls via administrative review and reducing the generosity of benefits. These two alternative retrenchment strategies are explored in terms of both the number of beneficiaries expected to voluntarily remove themselves from the rolls if benefits are reduced and the expected economic hardships if individuals are administratively removed. Existing econometric choice modeling underlies the estimates.

A multiple time-series analysis of labor supply and earnings in economic development

Using multivariate time-series techniques, the dynamics of male and female labor supply and earnings in Puerto Rico are examined during a period of rapid economic developemnt, 1953–1978. The temporal analysis suggests that aggregate male and female labor force participation rates are exogenous to male and female earnings. In addition, continous declines in male participation have been partly responsible for increases in both male and female earnings and a narrowing of relative earnings differentials. The study also finds that the advent of the Food Stamp Program in 1975 has resulted in a small reduction in male labor force participation. Moreover, the inclusion of food stamps as an intervention component is quite useful in forecasting the male participation rate. The forecasting accuracy of univariate and multivariate models is assessed with the result that, in every instance, the multivariate transfer functions prove superior. Overall, the results support the incorporation of multiple time-series in econometric studies of developing countries and provide evidence of its usefullness for development planning and policy.

Male labor force participation and the social security disability program.

In an article in thisJournal, Parsons (1980a) analyzes the doubling in the rate of' nonparticipation in the labor force of older men since 1946. Using cross-sectional data from the National Longitudinal Survey (Parnes et al. 1970) in an index function model of the labor force participation decision, he tests the assertion that the withdrawal of older males is attributable to the rapid expansion of alternatives to work provided by the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program. He reports an elasticity of nonparticipation with respect to the replacement rate of' SSDI benefits of' .631 and concludes that the recent decline in labor force participation can be "largely explained by the increased generosity of' social welfare transfers, particularly Social Security disability payments" (p. 130). The magnitude of Parsons's estimate and its impact on the public debate over disability transfer policy require careful scrutiny of' its basis. In Section I, we describe Parsons's econometric model and construction of' variables; in Section II we provide a critique. In Section III, we test the robustness of Parsons's elasticity estimate by presenting alternative estimates based on corrections and extensions of his basic model. Section IV concludes.

Disability Insurance and Male Labor Force Participation: A Response to Haveman and Wolfe

The percentage of adult males 45-54 years of age who are out of the labor force rose from 4.5 percent to 8.7 percent between 1947 and 1982. A great deal is known about this unprecedented rise in nonparticipation in the labor force of middle-aged males, much more than would be apparent from reading Haveman and Wolfe's comment. Substantial evidence has accumulated that the labor force participation of middle-aged males is sensitive both to the characteristics of the social security disability system and to labor market alternatives. Haveman and Wolfe's empirical results are an anomaly in this body of literature. Their generally insignificant empirical results are apparently not the result of the specification issues they raise but rather of their unfortunate choice of data set. An earlier study by Leonard (1979), for example, was almost identical in design to the Haveman and Wolfe analysis yet resulted in parameter estimates and conclusions remarkably similar to my own. Haveman and Wolfe's sample unfortunately is one-half the size of Leonard's sample and one-fifth the size of mine and apparently lacks detail in the crucial health measure. The issues Haveman and Wolfe raise are issues of variable measurement. They do not take issue with the fundamental choice structure underlying my empirical model, an expected utility framework discussed in Parsons (1980a). Since the disability system requires that the individual be incapable of substantial gainful activity, potential applicants face a labor force participation decision, not a marginal hours variation decision. A standard expected utility analysis leads to a probit model for the probability of labor force participation (LFP)

Economic Development, Pension Policies, and the Labor Force Participation of Aged Males: A Cross-national, Longitudinal Approach

The decline in labor force participation of aged males experienced by all developed countries can be seen as the result of two kinds of change: (1) economic growth and the need for a young, recently trained labor force has affected the educational system and occupational structure in ways that give young workers a competitive advantage and force older workers out of the labor force at mandatory retirement ages, and (2) government policies have been developed to make retirement more attractive financially and to induce older workers to leave the labor force voluntarily. This paper examines the additive and interactive influence of these two groups of variables using a sample of fix time points (every five years from 1950 to 1975) for 18 relatively developed nations. Models are estimated by using generalized least squares which relate labor force participation of males aged 65 and over to such variables as the size of the agricultural labor force, the old-age dependency ratio, government revenues, social insurance and pension benefits, coverage of the population by pension systems, and the existence of means and retirement tests. The results show dominant effects from the nonpolicy variables that relate to occupational changes in industrial economies and secondary effects from policy-manipulable variables such as pension expenditures that can be changed to increase labor force participation rates and ease the strain on social security systems.

Pension Benefits and the Decline in Elderly Male Labour Force Participation*

This paper uses time‐series econometric methods to unravel the causes of the secular decline in the labour force participation rate of males aged 65 years and over. The study finds that most of the sharp and sudden decline in the participation rate during 1972–76 is atria but able 10 more generous age pension benefits, with minor support from the discouraged worker effect associated with the current recession. A key feature of the model is the inclusion of several social security policy variables, apart from the value of the old‐age pension. These policy variables include the ‘free area’ means test limit and the 1976 switch from a means to an income test.

Work and Retirement: A Longitudinal Study of Men.

This volume on actual retirement practices utilizes a unique body of data--the National Longitudinal Surveys--about a representative sample of 3500 male workers, who were between 45 and 59 years of age when the survey began in 1966 and between 55 and 69 (if they survived) when the latest data became available in 1976. Blacks and whites are distinguished in the cohort, with blacks being oversampled in order to permit statistically reliable racial comparisons.The fact that the data were collected through repeated interviews with the same individuals over a ten-year period allows certain kinds of analysis that would not otherwise be possible. For example, attitudes and intentions reported by the men prior to retiring afford insight into the reasons for their subsequent retirement that after-the-fact interviews alone would not necessarily provide.The book offers a host of significant findings based on a statistical analysis of the longitudinal data. Among them: that there is a growing trend toward early retirement (before 65), in spite of the perceived social and economic pressures to work beyond that traditional retirement age; that nevertheless two-thirds of the men remained employed in 1976 and that three out of five of these reported that they were very satisfied with their jobs in both 1966 and 1976; that the disparity in labor force participation rates between blacks and whites would disappear if wage rates for equally qualified blacks and whites were to be equalized.The opening chapter introduces the sample and the database. Subsequent chapters take up changes over the studied decade in black-white labor market opportunities, the incidence and impact of job loss, the increasing rate of health impairment in the cohort, black-white differences in the labor force participation of older males, the retirement experience, and family adjustments to poor health and mortality.The methodological and statistical formulations on which the study is based are developed in appendixes. A glossary is also provided.