Making It Count Research Articles

Book review: Making It Count: Statistics and Statecraft in the Early People’s Republic of China

Book review: Making It Count: Statistics and Statecraft in the Early People’s Republic of China

Ranked Choice Voting in Australia and America: Do Voters Follow Party Cues?

Ranked choice voting (RCV) is experiencing a surge of interest in the United States, highlighted by its 2018 use for Congressional elections in Maine, the first application of a ranked ballot for national-level elections in American history. A century ago, the same system was introduced in another federal, two-party continental-sized democracy: Australia. RCV’s utility as a solution to inter-party coordination problems helps to explain its appeal in both countries, underscoring the potential benefits of a comparative analytical approach. This article examines this history of adoption and then turns to a comparison of recent RCV elections in Maine with state elections in New South Wales and Queensland, the two Australian states which share the same form of RCV as that used in the United States. This comparison shows how candidate and party endorsements influence voters’ rankings and can, over time, promote reciprocal exchanges between parties and broader systemic support for RCV. Such cross-partisan support helps explain the stability of RCV in Australia, with implications for the system’s prospects in the United States.

Arunabh Ghosh, Making It Count: Statistics and Statecraft in the Early People’s Republic of China

Arunabh Ghosh, Making It Count: Statistics and Statecraft in the Early People’s Republic of China

Political distrust and right-wing populist party voting in Australia

ABSTRACT While declining political trust has been given much attention, the behavioural implications of declining political trust have not yet been investigated extensively and the literature also shows the varying effects of political trust on support for extreme and populist parties across contexts. This article focuses on the decline of political trust in Australia from 1998 to 2016 and its effect on Australian voting behaviour. Multinomial logit estimations are performed using individual-level survey data from seven Australian federal elections. Our study provides evidence that political distrust can unite all successful right-wing populist parties and act as a moderating source to raise votes for right-wing populist parties in the elections. The study further demonstrates that right-wing populist parties can experience electoral success beyond mobilising anti-immigration sentiments.

Does Public Knowledge of Climate Change Really Matter in Australia?

ABSTRACTReplicating questions on climate change and polar knowledge from the United States, this study examines the impact of climate related facts for predicting acceptance of anthropogenic climate change, and for predicting Green voting in Australia. Analysis of national survey data from the Australian Survey of Social Attitudes show that the likelihood of Green voting increases with climate knowledge. Climate-related knowledge is also positively associated with acceptance of anthropogenic climate change, but the effect of knowledge is moderated by party political identification. Greens, Labor Party identifiers and politically un-affiliated Australians align more closely with the scientific consensus on climate change as their climate knowledge increases. However, climate knowledge has no effect on the climate change attitudes of Liberal and National party identifiers. Climate knowledge also interacts with gender. Climate knowledge has a stronger association with anthropogenic climate change beliefs among women than it does among men. These findings suggest the information deficit model of science communication is likely to be efficacious among supporters of politically progressive parties in Australia, but less so among political conservatives.

'Choice of the Manner in Which Thou Wilt Die': The Australian Courts on Compulsory Voting

This chapter explores judicial norms and rhetoric around compulsory voting in Australia. These legal principles and tropes are derived from two classes of cases. The first are decisions, from courts elevated in the hierarchy, about why compulsory voting is constitutionally legitimate. These decisions have survived a turn from respect for parliamentary sovereignty over electoral law towards implied political rights and freedoms. The second class of cases involve courts, both low and high in the judicial pecking order, reflecting on what amounts to a ‘valid and sufficient reason’ for not turning out to vote. Ultimately, the courts have been remarkably supportive of compulsion, albeit with a bleak, rather than positive, vision of the role of compulsion in electoral democracy. In rhetorical terms, Australian courts have treated electoral compulsion as akin to military conscription or to choosing the manner of one’s death.

The decline and rise of class voting? From occupation to culture in Australia

Conventional wisdom has long held that class is declining as an influence on voting. More recently, new conceptions of class, focusing on the ownership of economic assets and the possession of social and cultural capital, have challenged this view. This article evaluates these arguments in two ways. First, we examine trends in the impact of traditional measures of class on the vote in Australia from the 1960s to the present day. Second, using a 2015 national survey that measures different aspects of class voting, we assess for the first time the relative effects on the vote of occupation, assets, and social and cultural capital. The results show that while occupation has declined and is now unimportant, the ownership of both assets and cultural capital are major influences on the vote. We argue that the impact of class on the vote has not declined, but rather transformed itself in new and different ways, which has important long-term implications for party support.

Transnationalism and expatriate political engagement: the case of the Italian and French voting in Australia

ABSTRACTThe aim of this article is to provide an appreciation and analysis of the expatriate connectivity of Italian and French citizens from their place of residence in Australia through their respective elections in their home countries. Specifically, the article examines the case of Italians in Australia voting in the 2013 Italian elections and equally that of French citizens in Australia voting in the French presidential and the following legislative elections in 2017. The article examines the voting patterns there might be between those voting in their home country (Italy and France) and those voting in external electoral colleges (in this case, the relevant Australian college). The article shows that those living abroad—in this case, Australia—provide different political choices and less surprising low voting participation compared to the domestic districts. It also highlights that the transnational community can be, and is, influenced by the political context of their host country, which will be different from that which occurs in their home country.

Early voting in Australia: the costs and benefits of convenience

ABSTRACTPre-election day voting increases the opportunities for citizens to vote in an election. This paper asks who votes before election day in Australia and whether early voters and election day voters decide their vote differently. In Australia’s compulsory voting system early voting lowers the costs of voting for citizens who would otherwise be compelled to vote on a prescribed day. We may therefore expect that in a compulsory system, early voting has the effect of bringing forward some voter turnout, while aggregate turnout is unaffected. Using 2016 Australian Election Study data, we find that early voters do not appear to suffer time constraints distinguishing them from election day voters: they are no more likely to have caring responsibilities nor to work in time-inflexible occupations. Early voters tend to be older than election day voters, and are more likely to strongly dislike the leader of their non- preferred party. However, feelings towards the parties generally and the state of the economy are not related to early voting. This research suggests that of expanding the voting period in compulsory systems provides greater voter convenience but reduces the capacity of campaign promises and events to affect vote choice.

Say what you want – and make it count

Say what you want – and make it count

Compulsory voting in Australia

Compulsory voting in Australia

This issue of Acta

This issue of Acta

Trends in migrant and ethnic minority voting in Australia: findings from the Australian election study

ABSTRACTA review of the research literature on migrant voting in Australia shows that the “ethnic vote” has almost disappeared now that migrants tend to vote in a similar way to the rest of the population according to traditional class cleavages. In addition, it is argued that migrants in Australia predominantly reside in safe Labor seats that are represented by cabinet or shadow cabinet ministers. As such their group-based interests are often neglected by the major parties. Using findings from the ABS census and the 1993–2013 AES, this article re-examines whether there is a migrant vote, and if so, the extent to which migrant voting patterns have changed since the 1990s when the migrant and ethnic vote reached its peak. This study reveals patterns of migrant voting among certain birthplace subgroups that are more volatile than in previous decades but at the same time distinctive.

Young people and intentional informal voting in Australia

ABSTRACTCompared to most other advanced democracies, Australia experiences fairly high levels of both intentional and unintentional informal (or invalid) voting. Using survey data obtained predominantly from the Australian Election Study and aggregate-level data derived mainly from the Australian Census, we explore whether young people are more likely to cast intentional informal votes. We also reflect on why they might do so. We find that young people are strongly implicated in the rising intentional informal vote rate. We also find that their motivations are linked to the following factors: the young are less likely to be members of political parties, less interested in electoral politics and tend to value voting less than the average citizen. Young people also report higher than average levels of cynicism about politics and lower levels of satisfaction with Australian democracy.

Does the economy matter? Economic perceptions and the vote in Australia

ABSTRACTDoes the economy matter for how Australians vote in federal elections? International studies show an association between economic performance and elections, but research on Australia finds that the impact of the economy on voting is modest. What explains this relative absence of economic voting? How do Australians perceive the economy? And how do economic perceptions inform their decisions at the polls? Our results confirm the lack of an association between economic indicators and incumbent vote shares. Analyses of survey data from 1996 to 2013 show that political factors condition perceptions of economic performance, while preferences for – and perceptions of – the government's unified control over economic policy shape the influence of economic perceptions on voter choice. Overall, responsibility attributions are the key to economic voting in Australia.

Mandatory Voting: The Wrong Response to Low Voter Turnout

The trend of declining voter turnout across the western world has led some in Canada to call for mandatory voting. Australia is often cited as a successful example of compulsory voting in a Westminster system. While the aim to increase voter turnout is noble, there are many non-coercive methods of improving democracy and voter turnout that Canada ought to adapt before resorting to mandatory voting. Assessed methods include electoral reform, lowering the voting age, and instituting online voting; all are non-coercive ways to improve public satisfaction with the political process in Canada. Additionally, mandatory voting reduces Canadians’ ability to abstain from participating in the political system should they choose to do so which could have important philosophical implications. Furthermore,voter turnout data for Australia does not take into account important differences between registered voter turnout and voting age population turnout. Importantly, when analyzed these numbers indicate that compulsory voting in Australia is not as successful as many believe. Despite its ostensible attraction as a clear way to increase voter turnout, a legal requirement to vote is not a panacea to the issues of political distrust, dissatisfaction, and disengagement in Canada that are the root causes of low voter turnout.

The irrelevance and (new) relevance of religion in Australian elections

This article assesses religion and voting in Australia since 1987 and examines how Tony Abbott's status as Liberal leader corresponded with changes in leader evaluations and voting, and with significant changes in Australian parties and the electorate. Religious attendance became associated more strongly with Liberal voting in 2010. Catholics voted Liberal significantly more from 2010, in significantly higher numbers they viewed the Liberal leader more positively in 2013, and they viewed the Labor leader significantly less so. Evaluations of Abbott were structured by attitudes about abortion and same-sex marriage, whereas evaluations of Kevin Rudd were not. The article discusses how these results are not unique to Australia, but fit patterns observed with centre-right parties in other western democracies.本文考察了1987年以来的宗教和投票，并研究了托尼·阿伯特作为自由党党首如何应对在党首评价及投票方面的变化，以及澳大利亚政党和选举上的重大变化。宗教的参与和2010年的自由党投票关系密切。而自2010年起，天主教徒明显地更多投自由党的票；2013年更多天主教徒对自由党领导人做正面评价；他们对工党领导人评价就要低得多。对阿伯特的评价主要取决于堕胎和同性结婚问题，而对陆克文的评价则不是这样。本文讨论了为什么这样的结果并不是澳大利亚的独特现象，其他中右翼当政的西方民主国家也是这样。

Gays Donnt Vote Straight?: The Effect of Sexuality at the 2010 & 2013 Australian Federal Elections, and the Gap between Lesbians & Gay Men

This paper examines the effect of sexuality at the 2010 and 2013 Australian federal elections. This is the first study to investigate the impact of sexuality on the vote in Australia. It demonstrates that gay and lesbian communities have distinct voting patterns when controlling for socioeconomic status, life cycles, religion, age and gender. It presents four findings. First, sexuality has an effect on voting behaviour. Second, lesbians affect neighbourhood voting behaviours to a greater extent than gay men. Third, there is a difference in the direction of partisan support between gay and lesbian communities. Lesbian communities tend to support Labor and the Greens, while the relationship between gay men and the vote is less clear. At the 2013 election, lesbians were positively correlated with the vote for the Greens while gay men where negatively correlated. Fourth, there was a change in the structure of the lesbian vote between the 2010 and 2013 elections. This study uses factor analysis and multiple linear regression techniques to analyse aggregate data from the ABS 2011 census and AEC data from the 2010 and 2013 elections. The argument that gay and lesbians affected neighbourhood votes in 2013 conflicts with previous literature of LGBT voting, namely Hertzog (1996) and Schaffner & Senic (2006). The motivational factors for LGBT voting for Schaffner and Senic were material. I propose that the Australian context in 2013 suggests that different voting behaviours are the result of gay men being more materialist and lesbians having greater post-materialist concerns. De facto LGBT relationships by the 2010 election had the same material benefits as heterosexual relationships, meaning that the politics of marriage at the 2013 election were purely post-materialist in kind. The split between gay and lesbian Greens voting behaviour, therefore, could be a result of different motivational factors behind the vote for each.

How Do MPs in Westminster Democracies Vote When Unconstrained by Party Discipline? A Comparison of Free Vote Patterns on Marriage Equality Legislation

The UK and Australian literature on free vote patterns highlights that, even under ‘unwhipped’ free vote circumstances, party membership remains the key predictor of MPs' voting patterns. However, analyses of free votes have focused on single parliaments and as such, it is not clear whether the insights of this literature can be generalised. This article analyses MPs' voting behaviour, during free voting on landmark legislation, which sought to allow equal marriage rights to same-sex couples in Australia, New Zealand and the UK. The article will address the following questions: Which MPs supported proposals to legalise same-sex marriage? What were the main factors that predicted their voting? Why were the majority of MPs in the UK and New Zealand, but not Australia, willing to support law reform? Whilst voting in the UK and New Zealand followed a strikingly similar pattern, there are key differences in the voting in Australia. This is attributed to two main factors: first, the ‘whipping’ of small ‘l’ liberal Coalition MPs in the Australian House of Representatives who might have otherwise voted in favour of reform; and, secondly, the different pathways along which the ‘centre-left’ political parties have evolved in New Zealand and Australia, which led to a larger presence of Catholics in the Australian Labor Party than in either the UK or NZ Labour Parties. It is possible to conclude from the analysis more broadly, that although party remains the best predictor of voting patterns across the three Westminster democracies recently, gender has also emerged as an important predictor of voting patterns. This finding is discussed in the final part of the article.

Policy traps for third parties in two-party systems: the Australian case

Despite a steady erosion of the major parties' share of the vote in Australia, minor parties have been unable to attract more than 15 per cent of the vote. Employing a variation of Katz and Mair's cartel party thesis, this paper argues that the major parties have an advantage in defining and limiting power sharing arrangements and setting and reacting to the policy agenda. They can act together to deny a third-party oxygen, or can deflect criticism of controversial policies onto the third party. A critical appraisal of seven cases of government formation involving the Australian Greens and Australian Democrats, along with two case studies of legislative negotiation shows that the electoral backlash is often borne by the minor parties.