Does the economy matter? Economic perceptions and the vote in Australia

Abstract

ABSTRACTDoes the economy matter for how Australians vote in federal elections? International studies show an association between economic performance and elections, but research on Australia finds that the impact of the economy on voting is modest. What explains this relative absence of economic voting? How do Australians perceive the economy? And how do economic perceptions inform their decisions at the polls? Our results confirm the lack of an association between economic indicators and incumbent vote shares. Analyses of survey data from 1996 to 2013 show that political factors condition perceptions of economic performance, while preferences for – and perceptions of – the government's unified control over economic policy shape the influence of economic perceptions on voter choice. Overall, responsibility attributions are the key to economic voting in Australia.