Major Warming Research Articles

Reply to “Comments on ‘The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Winter of 2002’”

In Newman and Nash (2005, hereafter NN2005), the evolution of the unusual Southern Hemisphere (SH) 2002 stratospheric winter was discussed. This SH winter had a very large planetary wave-2 event in late September that resulted in an SH major stratospheric sudden warming. In particular, we stated that ‘‘This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the SH and split the Antarctic ozone hole.’’ Sehra (2014) has asked for an explanation as to why Sehra (1975, hereafter S1975) was not referenced in NN2005. Specifically, S1975 was not cited because a major stratospheric sudden warming is not evident in those results or in the discussion. S1975 documented temperature fluctuations over Molodezhnaya station (688S, 468E) in the 30–80-km altitude range using 60 rocketsondes during 1972 (16 observations of winds using falling chaff, 55–90-km altitude range). The S1975 observations provide an early documentation of in situ upperstratospheric and mesospheric temperatures and winds. For our NN2005 paper, there are two issues with respect to S1975:

Comments on “The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Winter of 2002”

The first-documented major sudden stratospheric warming and cooling followed by rapid wind perturbations over Antarctica during the Southern Hemisphere 1972 winter and early spring was reported by me (Caffin 1975; Sehra 1975, 1976a,b,c, 1979, 2009), although the year 1972 was also very unusual as a major solar proton event had also occurred at that time, destroying ozone and causing cooling (Xanthakis et al. 1981). Newman andNash (2005) owe an explanation for omitting my references from their paper irrespective of whether it satisfies the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) definition, as this warming and cooling was remarkably significant, and they had considered all available evidence.

Equatorial ionization anomaly variability over the Brazilian region during boreal sudden stratospheric warming events

AbstractThis study refers to the connection between the stratosphere and ionosphere, investigating, specifically, the behavior of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and ionospheric effects over the Brazilian region during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. We studied three major warmings that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere winter 2007–2008, 2008–2009, and 2009–2010 and a minor warming that occurred in 2010–2011. The solar activity was low for the first two cases and relatively moderate for the last two. In this study the EIA behavior was investigated using the ΔTEC (total electron content) parameter, which expresses the EIA relative intensity for the Brazilian sector. The results for the Brazilian region show, mainly after SSW temperature peak, an increase in the EIA intensity in the morning, followed by a decrease in the afternoon. As identified through ΔTEC signatures and consistently confirmed through wavelet power spectra analysis, this semidiurnal behavior is preserved for a number of days equal to the polar region thermal stabilization phase and it is very similar to the results obtained in pioneer studies in the Peruvian sector, in which TEC data was also used. In some cases the TEC negative variation is stronger than the positive, being noticeably more intense around the prereversal enhancement time, when the EIA is strongly suppressed in the Brazilian sector.

The influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on major stratospheric sudden warmings

Major stratospheric sudden warmings are prominent disturbances of the Northern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere. Understanding the factors controlling major warmings is required, since the associated circulation changes can propagate down into the troposphere and affect the surface climate, suggesting enhanced prediction skill when these processes are accurately represented in models. In this study we investigate how different natural and anthropogenic factors, namely, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), sea surface temperatures (SSTs), anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances, influence the frequency, variability, and life cycle of major warmings. This is done using sensitivity experiments performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is able to simulate the life cycle of major warmings realistically. The QBO strengthens the climatological stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) and significantly reduces the frequency of major warmings through reduction of planetary wave propagation into the PNJ region. Variability in SSTs weakens the PNJ and significantly increases the major warming frequency due to enhanced wave forcing. Even extreme climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) do not influence the total frequency but determine the prewarming phase of major warmings. The amplitude and duration of major warmings seem to be mainly determined by internal stratospheric variability. We also suggest that SST variability, two-way ocean/atmosphere coupling, and hence the memory of the ocean are needed to reproduce the observed tropospheric negative Northern Annular Mode pattern after major warmings.

Subseasonal variability of water vapor in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere over Northern Europe in winter 2009/2010

For the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (USLM) we used microwave spectrometer measurements of water vapor to investigate the cause of subseasonal variability over Northern Europe: at ALOMAR (Andenes, 69.3° N, 16.1° E), Northern Norway, and at the Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Kühlungsborn, 54.2° N, 11.8° E), Northern Germany, for winter 2009/2010. The MERRA data set of NASA is applied to study the dynamical link between the local variability of H2O and transport in the USLM.Besides a slow increase in January and a stronger decrease in February and March 2010, episodes of significant increase and decrease of H2O were found over Northern Germany. These structural changes are in good agreement with MERRA which show similar patterns induced by a dominant conservative horizontal transport of H2O. Due to the strong negative meridional gradient and mixing barrier, higher values of water vapor have been observed outside the polar vortex and lower values inside. We found that the complex polar vortex evolution over Northern Germany during the minor stratospheric sudden warming (mSSW) in the beginning of December 2009 and the major warming (MSSW) at the end of January 2010, as well as between the two, fits well into this relationship. An episode of strong increase in water vapor over ALOMAR at about 55–60km altitude was observed during the MSSW on the 27th of January 2010 resulting in a significant double peak in altitude. Based on MERRA data we show that this dual peak was caused by a relatively strong regional northward propagation of more moist air in the lower mesosphere. In the lower mesosphere strong polar intrusion of warm and moist air occurred mainly over Northern Europe resulting in a well-mixed polar anticyclone on the 30th of January. In comparison with observations the local maxima of H2O in MERRA are underestimated by approximately 1–2ppmv. After the MSSW, the vertical descent rate of the MERRA reanalysis is half as much as the observed one over Kühlungsborn.Nevertheless the high coherence between local water vapor measurements over Northern Germany and Northern Norway and MERRA supports the extended use of MERRA for subseasonal transport studies in the USLM. We conclude that the observed strong subseasonal variability of H2O in the USLM over Northern Europe, especially over Kühlungsborn and over ALOMAR, during the winter 2009/2010 was caused by the passage of the edge of polar vortex and linked transport of H2O.

On the Identification of the Downward Propagation of Arctic Stratospheric Climate Change over Recent Decades*

Abstract Dynamical coupling between the stratospheric and tropospheric circumpolar circulations in the Arctic has been widely documented on month-to-month and interannual time scales, but not on longer time scales. In the Antarctic, both short- and long-term coupling extending from the stratosphere to the surface has been identified. In this study, changes in Arctic temperature, geopotential height, and ozone observed since the satellite era began in 1979 are examined, comparing dynamically quiescent years in which major sudden stratospheric warmings did not occur to all years. It is shown that this approach clarifies the behavior for years without major warmings and that dynamically quiescent years are marked by a strengthening of the Arctic polar vortex over the past 30 years. The associated declines in stratospheric temperatures, geopotential height, and ozone are qualitatively similar to those obtained in the Antarctic (albeit weaker), and propagate downward into the Arctic lowermost stratosphere during late winter and early spring. In sharp contrast to the Antarctic, the strengthening of the Arctic stratospheric vortex appears to originate at a higher altitude, and the propagation to the Arctic troposphere is both very limited and confined to the uppermost troposphere, even when only dynamically quiescent years are considered in the analysis.

Variations of the vertical ozone distribution over Moscow during sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2012–2013

The new results of remote sensing of atmospheric ozone over the Moscow region in the cold half-year of 2012–2013, including the period of major sudden stratospheric warming are presented. Methods for analyzing the results of observation of the vertical ozone distribution, obtained using spectral equipment operating at the frequencies of the ozone rotational line with a center at 142.175 GHz, are described. The features of the time series of the vertical stratospheric ozone distribution before, during, and after a strong disturbance of the stratospheric dynamics in January 2013 are considered. The data are compared with ozone observations during the period of previous major stratospheric warming in 2009–2010. The considered year to year differences and the diversity of the features of the dynamic processes affecting the vertical ozone distribution point to the importance of further monitoring of atmospheric ozone, which is necessary to develop numerical climate models and to predict the ozonosphere and climate evolution.

Gravity wave characteristics in the mesopause region revealed from OH airglow imager observations over Northern Colorado

AbstractUsing 5 years of all‐sky OH airglow imager data over Yucca Ridge Field Station, CO (40.7°N, 104.9°W), from September 2003 to September 2008, we extract and deduce quasi‐monochromatic gravity wave (GW) characteristics in the mesopause region. The intrinsic periods are clustered between approximately 4 and 10 min, and many of them are unstable and evanescent. GW occurrence frequency exhibits a clear semiannual variation with equinoctial minima, which is likely related to the seasonal variation of background wind. The anomalous propagation direction in January 2006, with strong southward before major warming starting in 21 January and weak southward propagation afterward, was most likely affected by stratospheric sudden warming. The momentum fluxes show strongly anticorrelated with the tides, with ~180° out of phase in the zonal component. While in the meridional component, the easterly maximum occurred approximately 2–6 h after maximum easterly tidal wind. However, the anticorrelations are both weakest during the summer. The dissipating and breaking of small‐scale and high‐frequency GW's components could have a potential impact on the general circulation in the mesopause region.

Stratospheric Polar Vortex Splitting in December 2009

The 2009–10 Arctic stratospheric winter, in comparison with other recent winters, is mainly characterized by a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in late January associated with planetary wavenumber 1. This event led to a large increase in the temperature of the polar stratosphere and to the reversal of the zonal wind. Unlike other major SSW events in recent winters, after the major SSW in January 2010 the westerlies and polar vortex did not recover to their pre-SSW strength until the springtime transition. As a result, the depletion of the ozone layer inside the polar vortex over the entire winter was relatively small over the past 20 years. The other distinguishing feature of the 2010 winter was the splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex into two lobes in December. The vortex splitting was accompanied by an increase in the temperature of the polar stratosphere and a weakening of the westerlies but with no reversal. The splitting occurred when, in addition to the high-pressure system over northeastern Eurasia and the northern Pacific Ocean, the tropospheric anticyclone over Europe amplified and extended to the lower stratosphere. Analysis of wave activity in the extratropical troposphere revealed that two Rossby wave trains propagated eastward to the North Atlantic several days prior to the vortex splitting. The first wave train propagated from the subtropics and mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific Ocean over North America and the second one propagated from the northern Pacific Ocean. These wave trains contributed to an intensification of the tropospheric anticyclone over Europe and to the splitting of the stratospheric polar vortex.

Extracting gravity wave parameters during the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere major sudden stratospheric warming using a SANAE imaging riometer

Abstract. Using absorption data measured by imaging riometer for ionospheric studies (IRIS) located at the South Africa National Antarctic Expedition (SANAE), Antarctica (72° S, 3° W), we extracted the parameters of gravity waves (GW) of periods between 40 and 50 min during late winter/spring of the year 2002, a period of the unprecedented major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere middle atmosphere. During this period, an unprecedented substantial increase of temperature by about 25–30 K throughout the stratosphere was observed. During the period of the occurrence of the major stratospheric warming, there was a reduction of both the GW horizontal phase speeds and the horizontal wavelengths at 90 km. The GW phase speeds and horizontal wavelengths were observed to reach minimum values of about 7 m s−1 and 19 km, respectively, while during the quiet period the average value of the phase speed and horizontal wavelength was approximately 23 m s−1 and 62 km, respectively. The observed event is discussed in terms of momentum flux and also a potential interaction of gravity waves, planetary waves and mean circulation.

Effect of polar sudden stratospheric warming on the tropical stratosphere and troposphere and its surface signatures over the Indian region

Polar and tropical stratosphere is known to undergo coupling during the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) during winter. This coupling effect is studied over the different locations of India based on four typical cases of major warmings that has occurred in the years 1984–85, 1987–88, 1998–99 and 2008–09. The analysis has been carried out using the ECMWF interim reanalysis data from 1000hPa to 1hPa levels. The six Indian stations extending from northern to southern regions were selected to study the effect of SSW over Indian subcontinent. The study reveals the presence of a strong cooling in the entire tropics (30°N–30°S) associated with SSWs. Over the Indian region, the cooling became intense of the order 10–15°C during the peak phase of the warming. The intensity of the cooling is computed based on the deviation from the mean values. The temperature during such occasions attains the lowest values of the season or the year. The near-surface (1000hPa) temperature anomalies over the Indian regions also exhibit a lower temperature prior to the peak of high latitude warming. Before the peak of warming, an upwelling started in the tropical tropospheric layer that induces a lower temperature in the surface layer. Thus the cooling first appears in the lower surface layers. When the polar stratosphere attains the maximum temperature, the tropical stratosphere shows the annual minimum temperature. It indicates the existence of a strong coupling between the low and high-latitudes associated with SSWs. The possibility of a severe cold stratosphere over the tropical Indian region can be anticipated when a major warming develops over the polar region. The sudden strong cooling of the tropical stratosphere appears to alter the prevailing dynamical and radiative processes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Planetary waves in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere during 2009 Arctic major stratospheric warming

Abstract. The AURA-MLS daily mean temperatures and zonal wind from NASA-MERRA reanalysis for latitudes between 60° N and 80° N are used to investigate the planetary wave (PW) characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) (November 2008 to March 2009). Here, we used a novel method called empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to extract the PWs from the temperature data. The EMD is an interesting approach to decompose signals into locally periodic components, the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), and will easily identify the embedded structures, even those with small amplitudes. The spectral analysis reveals prevailing planetary wave periods of ~6-day, ~8-day, ~15-day, and ~21–23-day in IMFs 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Clear upward propagation of these waves (20–30 days) is observed, suggesting that sources for these oscillations are in the troposphere.

A comparative study of the major sudden stratospheric warmings in the Arctic winters 2003/2004–2009/2010

Abstract. We present an analysis of the major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Arctic winters 2003/04–2009/10. There were 6 major SSWs (major warmings [MWs]) in 6 out of the 7 winters, in which the MWs of 2003/04, 2005/06, and 2008/09 were in January and those of 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2009/10 were in February. Although the winter 2009/10 was relatively cold from mid-December to mid-January, strong wave 1 activity led to a MW in early February, for which the largest momentum flux among the winters was estimated at 60° N/10 hPa, about 450 m2 s−2. The strongest MW, however, was observed in 2008/09 and the weakest in 2006/07. The MW in 2008/09 was triggered by intense wave 2 activity and was a vortex split event. In contrast, strong wave 1 activity led to the MWs of other winters and were vortex displacement events. Large amounts of Eliassen-Palm (EP) and wave 1/2 EP fluxes (about 2–4 ×105 kg s−2) are estimated shortly before the MWs at 100 hPa averaged over 45–75° N in all winters, suggesting profound tropospheric forcing for the MWs. We observe an increase in the occurrence of MWs (~1.1 MWs/winter) in recent years (1998/99–2009/10), as there were 13 MWs in the 12 Arctic winters, although the long-term average (1957/58–2009/10) of the frequency stays around its historical value (~0.7 MWs/winter), consistent with the findings of previous studies. An analysis of the chemical ozone loss in the past 17 Arctic winters (1993/94–2009/10) suggests that the loss is inversely proportional to the intensity and timing of MWs in each winter, where early (December–January) MWs lead to minimal ozone loss. Therefore, this high frequency of MWs in recent Arctic winters has significant implications for stratospheric ozone trends in the northern hemisphere.

Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

Abstract. The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA); a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX); a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and support vector regression (SVR). These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

Variability of MLT winds and waves over mid-latitude during the 2000/2001 and 2009/2010 winter stratospheric sudden warming

Abstract. The mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) wind structure over Wuhan (30° N, 114° E) in 2000/2001 winter and over Langfang (39.4° N, 116.6° E) in 2009/2010 winter are examined to reveal the effects of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in mid-low-latitude MLT region. The result shows that the MLT daily zonal wind over these two sites reversed from eastward wind to westward wind for several days during the SSW events. The reversals were almost coincident with the polar stratospheric temperature reaching its maximum at 10 hPa, 90° N and were about ten days prior to the reversal of high latitude stratospheric zonal wind at 10 hPa, 60° N. The temporal variations of tides, gravity waves and 2-day planetary waves in the mid-latitude MLT showed different behavior during the two SSW events. During the 2001 SSW event, MLT diurnal tide reached its maximum when the MLT zonal wind decreased rapidly and SSW event began in polar stratosphere; the activity of 2-day waves decreased after the onset of the 2001 SSW, while the gravity wave increased when the 2001 SSW developed into a major warming. However, in the 2009/2010 winter, the semidiurnal tide and 2-day wave in MLT over Langfang reached a peak about two days earlier than zonal wind reversal at 10 hPa, 60° N; no significant features were found in diurnal tides, terdiurnal tides and gravity waves related to the 2010 SSW event.

Correction to “First simulations with a whole atmosphere data assimilation and forecast system: The January 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming”

Correction to “First simulations with a whole atmosphere data assimilation and forecast system: The January 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming”

The preconditioning of major sudden stratospheric warmings

The preconditioning of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is investigated with two long time series using reanalysis (ERA‐40) and model (MAECHAM5/MPI‐OM) data. Applying planetary wave analysis, we distinguish between wavenumber‐1 and wavenumber‐2 major SSWs based on the wave activity of zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2 during the prewarming phase. For this analysis an objective criterion to identify and classify the preconditioning of major SSWs is developed. Major SSWs are found to occur with a frequency of six and seven events per decade in the reanalysis and in the model, respectively, thus highlighting the ability of MAECHAM5/MPI‐OM to simulate the frequency of major SSWs realistically. However, from these events only one quarter are wavenumber‐2 major warmings, representing a low (∼0.25) wavenumber‐2 to wavenumber‐1 major SSW ratio. Composite analyses for both data sets reveal that the two warming types have different dynamics; while wavenumber‐1 major warmings are preceded only by an enhanced activity of the zonal wavenumber‐1, wavenumber‐2 events are either characterized by only the amplification of zonal wavenumber‐2 or by both zonal wavenumber‐1 and zonal wavenumber‐2, albeit at different time intervals. The role of tropospheric blocking events influencing these two categories of major SSWs is evaluated in the next step. Here, the composite analyses of both reanalysis and model data reveal that blocking events in the Euro‐Atlantic sector mostly lead to the development of wavenumber‐1 major warmings. The blocking–wavenumber‐2 major warming connection can only be statistical reliable analyzed with the model time series, demonstrating that blocking events in the Pacific region mostly precede wavenumber‐2 major SSWs.

Evaluation of Surface Air Temperature Change over China and the Globe during the Twentieth Century in IAP AGCM4.0

Based on time series and linear trend analysis, the authors evaluated the performance of the fourth gen- eration atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP AGCM4.0), in simulating surface air temperature (SAT) during the twentieth century over China and the globe. The numerical experiment is con- ducted by driving the model with the observed sea surface temperature and sea ice. It is shown that IAP AGCM4.0 can simulate the warming trend of the global SAT, with the major warming regions in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the South- ern Hemisphere. While the simulated trend over the whole globe is close to the observation, the model under- estimates the observed trend over the continents. More- over, the model simulates the spatial distribution of SAT in China, with a bias of approximately -2°C in eastern China, but with a more serious bias in western China. Compared with the global mean, however, the correlation coefficient between the simulation and observation in China is significantly lower, indicating that there is large uncertainty in simulating regional climate change. Keywords: IAP AGCM4.0, surface air temperature, the twentieth century, globe, China Citation: Dong, X., F. Xue, H. Zhang, et al., 2012: Evaluation of surface air temperature change over China and the globe during the twentieth century in IAP AGCM4.0, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5, 435-438.

Arctic ozone depletion in 2002-2003 measured by ASUR and comparison with POAM observations

We present ozone loss estimated from airborne measurements taken during January–February and March in the Arctic winter 2002/2003. The first half of the winter was characterized by unusually cold temperatures and the second half by a major stratospheric sudden warming around 15–18 January 2003. The potential vorticity maps show a vortex split in the lower stratosphere during the major warming (MW) in late January and during the minor warming in mid-February due to wave 1 amplification. However, the warming can be termed as a vortex displacement event as there was no vortex split during the MW period at 10 hPa. Very low temperatures, large areas of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), and high chlorine activation triggered significant ozone loss in the early winter, as the vortex moved to the midlatitude regions. The ozone depletion derived from the ASUR measurements sampled inside the vortex, in conjunction with the Mimosa-Chim model tracer, shows a maximum of 1.3 ± 0.2 ppmv at 450–500 K by late March. The partial column loss derived from the ASUR ozone profiles reaches up to 61 ± 4 DU in 400–550 K in the same period. The evolution of ozone and ozone loss assessed from the ASUR measurements is in very good agreement with POAM observations. The reduction in ozone estimated from the POAM measurements shows a similar maximum of 1.3 ± 0.2 ppmv at 400–500 K or 63 ± 4 DU in 400–550 K in late March. Our study reveals that the Arctic winter 2002/2003 was unique as it had three minor warmings and a MW, yet showed large loss in ozone. No such feature was observed in any other Arctic winter in the 1989–2010 period. In addition, an unusually large ozone loss in December, around 0.5 ± 0.2 ppmv at 450–500 K or 12 ± 1 DU in 400–550 K, was estimated for the first time in the Arctic. A careful and detailed diagnosis with all available published results for this winter exhibits an average ozone loss of 1.5 ± 0.3 ppmv at 450–500 K or 65 ± 5 DU in 400–550 K by the end of March, which exactly matches the ozone depletion derived from the ASUR, POAM and model data. The early ozone loss together with considerable loss afterwards put the warm Arctic winter 2002/2003 amongst the moderately cold winters in terms of the significance of the ozone loss.

The impact of gravity wave drag on mesospheric analyses of the 2006 stratospheric major warming

[1] The 2006 Arctic stratospheric sudden warming was an unusual event in which the stratopause disappeared after the peak of the warming, only to reform at very high altitudes above 75 km. The stratopause then descended during February and March 2006, returning to climatological values. This event, which coupled the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere, has been used to assess the quality of the upper stratospheric and mesospheric analyses produced with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model's data assimilation system. By comparing with simulations in which Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry temperatures were assimilated, mesospheric analyses obtained without assimilating any observations above 45 km were shown to capture the timing and amplitude of the elevated stratopause event. Mesospheric analyses of temperature and winds were sensitive to the use of a nonorographic gravity wave drag scheme, but this sensitivity was reduced when mesospheric temperatures were assimilated. Moreover, a realistic nonorographic gravity wave drag can somewhat compensate for the lack of mesospheric measurements. On the other hand, the descent of mesospheric NOx after the peak of the stratospheric warming was found to be sensitive to the presence of nonorographic gravity wave drag even when mesospheric temperatures were assimilated, suggesting that eddy forcing is not fully constrained by mesospheric observations in our data assimilation system.