Major Trading Research Articles

Timber trade in the United States of America 1870 to 2017. A socio-metabolic analysis

The importance of international timber trade in The United States forest transition is poorly understood. Here, we synthesize a variety of historical sources to establish a consistent socio-metabolic dataset for U.S. physical trade in timber and timber products from 1870 to 2017, distinguishing three product categories (raw, primary and final products) and major trading partners. The United States increasingly relied on net imports of primary and final timber products, mainly from Canada, but also from Asia, and Europe, while emerging as a net-exporter of raw timber. The growing physical import dependence coincided with domestic forest recovery, indicating that imports contributed to reducing pressures on domestic forests. The structure of timber trade suggests that the United States also outsourced labor for wood processing.

Economic Complexity Transfer through Trade and its Impact on the Solow Residual (Total Factor of Productivity): A Spatial Approach

Previous literature suggests that trade contributes to knowledge and technology spillovers among trading partners. Using panel data and country-specific fixed effects, we show that the technology spillovers of a country is explained by the Economic Complexity from its major trading partners. We build an endogenous growth model for all OECD countries for the 1966–2016 period; we draw the residuals to measure the Total Factor Productivity of each country. Then, using spatial econometrics, we regress the Total Factor Productivity of each country on the Economic Complexity Index of its major trading partners. In addition, we run a Random Coefficient Model, to let this relationship vary randomly by country. We show that for 30 of the 36 countries, the TFP of a country positively depends on the ECI of its trading partners Finally, we run the endogenous growth model again, but now it includes the spatial lag term as an explanatory variable.

The Dynamics of the Ghanaian Currency Depreciation: A Case Analysis of the Performance of Ghana Cedi (GHC) Against Its Major Trading Currencies

The Dynamics of the Ghanaian Currency Depreciation: A Case Analysis of the Performance of Ghana Cedi (GHC) Against Its Major Trading Currencies

Traders as ecosystem orchestrators for sustainable foods supply chain transformation

AbstractTransforming global food supply chains for sustainability in a pervasive manner requires leading it for specific contexts. As central intermediaries between producers and consumers possessing both tacit and explicit knowledge of supply–demand and local business cultures, traders are uniquely positioned for ecosystem orchestration (EO). The limited literature on the role of agricultural commodities traders in promoting sustainability and calls for it has motivated this study. To understand the capabilities required for ecosystem orchestrators (EOs), we surveyed the available literature using citation network analysis, revealing knowledge elements within the clusters of leading value and stakeholder orchestration, cultivating dynamic and interorganizational capabilities, interplaying innovation and business ecosystems, and utilizing software ecosystems. These clusters contained interlinked EO functions of offering complementary assets and digital platforms, which we highlighted as actual business practices by certain major agricultural trading firms. We conclude that traders as EOs for sustainability is plausible and provide actionable guidance.

Virtual water flows and drivers in the international trade of agricultural products of the regional comprehensive economic partnership.

The regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) is today the largest free trade area in the world. This paper examines agricultural trade in the RCEP from 2010 to 2019 through the perspective of virtual water. And the drivers of the virtual water flow between China and the RCEP are also explored. The results are as follows: the virtual water flow during the study period was 2,576.51 billion m3. From a temporal perspective, the annual virtual water flow over the study period is characterized by a slow rise-significant fall-slow rise. It has the characteristics of concentration in spatial distribution and water resources and product structure. However, the concentration degree showed a downward trend during the study period. Then, we have divided the major trading into four categories based on whether there is a shortage of water on both sides of the trade. In terms of the drivers of virtual water flows between China and the RCEP, we have used the gravity model to arrive at the following findings: crop yields, bilateral economic scale, and agricultural labor resources are the main drivers. Our research results have reference values for adjusting bilateral agricultural trade and water conservation.

A study on the block pattern and spatial characteristics of gara in Surat, India

Surat is a major port and trading city in the northwestern state of Gujarat, India, boasting a rich multicultural background where colonial, religious, and commercial cultures coexist. Field research conducted on the historical districts of Surat indicates that the traditional residential buildings in Surat are not havelis; rather, their planar features bear a remarkable similarity to shophouses in Southeast Asia. The urban formation, spatial pattern of historical blocks, and architectural characteristics of Surat were thoroughly analyzed at three levels: macro, meso, and micro, using methods such as the examination of historical maps, reading historical literature, gathering oral histories, and conducting field investigations. The analysis of the political culture of Asian port cities reveals that Surat has been involved in cross-cultural exchanges in Asia. Through document analysis, the study delves into the formation process of Surat City and the spatial pattern of its historical blocks. To gain a comprehensive understanding, an exploration of the types of planes and profiles of the existing gara cases was carried out, along with a study of the spatial characteristics and evolution of gara. Finally, a comparative analysis between gara and the local architecture haveli was conducted, examining the factors for gara formation from multiple aspects, such as politics, religion, and policy. It can be concluded that the formation of Surat’s city and architecture was not only influenced by the spread of Asian culture at that time but also integrated with local traditional characteristics.

Interrelationship dynamics between stock markets of nation under debt crisis and its major trading partners: evidence from Sri Lankan crisis

A series of crises triggered over a decade may bring global recession, which may impact millions of investors, including countries teetering on the brink due to forex reserve shortages; this study addresses the significant financial event of a small nation declaring bankruptcy. Such events can have adverse consequences on the global economy, particularly affecting the stock market indices of the country’s trading partners. Our research investigates the impact of small nation bankruptcies on the stock market indices of connected importing and exporting partners. Focusing on the recent political and economic crisis in Sri Lanka, we analyze interactions between the Sri Lankan stock exchange and its key trading partners. Employing pairwise cointegration and the vector auto-regressive model-based Granger causal approach, our findings reveal cointegration among the stock markets in Germany, Italy, and Sri Lanka. Notably, the pre-crisis causal links between the Colombo Stock Exchange and other stock markets have dissolved. These insights hold valuable implications for understanding and preparing for similar circumstances in other South Asian economies grappling with forex shortages and rising inflation.Graphical abstract

Whose negative emissions? Exploring emergent perspectives on CDR from the EU's hard to abate and fossil industries

Net zero targets have rapidly become the guiding principle of climate policy, implying the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to compensate for residual emissions. At the same time, the extent of (future) residual emissions and their distribution between economic sectors and activities has so far received little attention from a social science perspective. This constitutes a research gap as the distribution of residual emissions and corresponding amounts of required CDR is likely to become highly contested in the political economy of low-carbon transformation. Here, we investigate what function CDR performs from the perspective of sectors considered to account for a large proportion of future residual emissions (cement, steel, chemicals, and aviation) as well as the oil and gas industry in the EU. We also explore whether they claim residual emissions to be compensated for outside of the sector, whether they quantify these claims and how they justify them. Relying on interpretative and qualitative analysis, we use decarbonization or net zero roadmaps published by the major sector-level European trade associations as well as their statements and public consultation submissions in reaction to policy initiatives by the EU to mobilize CDR. Our findings indicate that while CDR technologies perform an important abstract function for reaching net zero in the roadmaps, the extent of residual emissions and responsibilities for delivering corresponding levels of negative emissions remain largely unspecified. This risks eliding pending distributional conflicts over residual emissions which may intersect with conflicts over diverging technological transition pathways advocated by the associations.

INDIA’S STRATEGIC DRIVE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The South China Sea (SCS) is known for its strategic location and abundant of natural resources. It has become a source of conflict among countries in the region due to its importance as a major trade route for China, the US, India, and Japan. Its significance has led to tensions and disputes over control and access to its resources. Its geopolitics is greatly affecting the region owing to the growing conflict between the two emerging powers in the region, such as China and India. The comprehension of geopolitics necessitates an understanding of the divergent geopolitical interests of both states involved in the area. This paper focus on understanding the India’s increasing naval posturing in SCS. New Delhi is swiftly enhancing its naval capabilities and stretching its maritime interests in the SCS. India has been increasing its presence in the SCS, which is of utmost importance to its trade relations with Japan. While, China is a strong contender in the SCS by retaining its top position among other nations. India is becoming a pre-eminent maritime power in the SCS. Moreover, China is not ready to recognize India’s naval advancement. The study, thus spotlights India’s maritime interests and campaigns in the SCS along with other major powers.

Green inclusive leadership, green policy, and pursuit of sustainability in natural resources: A firm-level analysis in context of Ukraine-Russia war

China is one of the major trading partners of Russia and Ukraine. The country depends upon Russia and China to import a few of the key strategic products from the mining, agriculture, and energy sectors. This study explores the association between green inclusive leadership, green policy, and the pursuit of sustainability in the iron-ore mining industry in China, against the backdrop of the Ukraine-Russia war. This also examines the role of green policy robustness in the relationship between green inclusive leadership and the pursuit of sustainability. Further, our study determines the magnitude of green inclusive leadership in sustainability. We used the cross-sectional data of 102 firms from the Iron-Ore Mining sector of the People Republic of China. This study employed hierarchal regression for empirical analysis. Our findings of hierarchal regression analysis highlight that green inclusive leadership significantly impacts the sustainability of the iron-ore mining firms, whereas green policies positively reinforce those impacts on the sustainability of the firms. Our findings substantiate the significant moderating role of green policy in reinforcing the impacts of green inclusive leadership on the sustainability of the firms. Our findings suggest that the presence of well well-enacted green policy can help firms to augment the impacts of green innovation leadership on sustainability. In a nutshell, our research offers insights into how the iron ore mining industry can navigate the possibility of using green innovation leadership to achieve sustainable development.

Is a friend in need a friend indeed? Geopolitical risk, international trade of China, and Belt & Road Initiative

ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on bilateral trade flows of China with its major trading partners. It is generally perceived that geopolitical risk exerts a negative impact on bilateral trade flows. Especially, this paper pays particular attention to the moderating effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for the negative association between geopolitical risk and economic relationship. In this regard, monthly bilateral flows of China with major BRI and non-BRI economies, respectively, are analysed for the period of 2001–2022. The results indicate that bilateral trade flows of China are negatively associated with the level of geopolitical risk for the whole period. However, there is distinction between the BRI and non-BRI economies during the post-BRI period (2014–2022). While the negative relationship generally holds for non-BRI economies, Chinese economic tie with BRI members rather gets closer in the rise of geopolitical risk. The findings in this study offer empirical evidence on the relationship between geopolitical risk and bilateral trade flows as well as the moderating effect of economic cooperation in uncertain times.

Forecasting the containerized freight index with AIS data: A novel information combination method based on gray incidence analysis

AbstractThis paper uses the container shipping capacities of 11 major trade lanes, obtained from automatic identification system (AIS), to construct a common factor based on gray incidence analysis (GIA) in the aim of improving the predictability of containerized freight index. Our results show that the common factor generated by GIA consistently exhibits better out‐of‐sample prediction performances than principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), meaning that GIA can extract more useful information for forecasting freight index. Our main findings are first, GIA can evaluate the similarity between the predictors and the predicted value. Unlike popular information combination method PCA, which cannot extract the relevant information from the predictors, GIA can extract the most relevant information of the predictors to the predicted value. Second, different from LASSO, which drops some information, GIA maintains the most information, because the container shipping capacities of different lanes all impact the freight index. Third, AIS data do provide information increments for freight rate forecasting. This research explores a new field application of gray relational analysis in information combination and presents one application of GIA in big data processing. This research shows the usefulness of AIS information in predicting freight index. Additionally, this research enlightens the prediction of freight rate based on big data from AIS.

Argentina’s Foreign Policy Under Milei: Limited Disruption?

The decisive victory of Javier Milei in Argentina’s 2023 presidential elections signalled major changes in domestic policies and potential shifts in the country’s foreign policy and global positioning. During his campaign, Milei advocated a Western-oriented alignment with the United States, Israel and the ‘free world’, vowing to sever ties with ‘communist’ countries, including Brazil and China – Argentina’s major trading and economic partners. But his capacity to do this will likely be constrained by pressure to maintain domestic stability and his own ultra-libertarian principles. While Argentina probably will increasingly look West under Milei, the extent to which ties with the Global South, including Brazil and China, can be curtailed remains uncertain. The need for economic continuity and stability may temper Milei’s ability and inclination to break or significantly downgrade important relationships, pointing to substantial continuity in foreign and trade policy.

Robustness of the International Wheat Trade Network

Grain is the material basis for human survival and development, wheat is one of the three significant grains, and the robustness of the wheat trade has seriously affected world grain security. In the paper, we analyze the robustness of the International Wheat Trade Network (IWTN) from three perspectives: global, regional, and national. We quantify the topological properties and evolution characteristics of IWTN from 1987 to 2020, and analyze the stability of IWTN using random attacks and target attacks. The import satisfaction of major wheat trading countries and trade communities is quantified through import stability indicators. Firstly, the results show that IWTN satisfies the scale-free property and that global wheat trade transactions continue to increase. Secondly, IWTN under random attack forms a “convex” curve regarding network efficiency. It shows that IWTN has better resistance to external shocks, and higher robustness. However, under the targeted attack, the network collapses when the node failure rate reaches 40%. Regardless of the attack mode, the decreasing trend of network efficiency and connectivity is the same in different years as the number of failed nodes gradually increases, and no year shows outstanding stability. Thirdly, different communities in the wheat trade are more satisfied with the wheat imports of their internal countries, and most of the wheat trade occurs within the same trading community. Fourthly, among the top five global wheat importers in 2020, Italy and Turkey have diversified sources of imports, but trade imports are relatively concentrated. In contrast, China, Egypt and Indonesia have relatively balanced wheat trade imports from their respective trading countries and are less at risk of being affected in the event of supply risks.

Specifying The Study Of Trade And Convergence Of Brics Economies In Post Pandemic Era

This conference paper examines how trade, income distribution, and convergence among the BRICS countries have been affected by the formation of the BRICS economies. Trade and convergence rate relationships have been examined using intra-trade organization, panel unit roots testing, and single difference technique. An estimated convergence meter between the major trading partners of the BRICS countries and themselves has been calculated in the post-COVID-19 trade openness era. The investigation's conclusions demonstrated that the BRICS countries came closer together over the investigation's duration. However, no evidence of a connection to the formation of the post-BRICS economic union appears to exist. The post-trade reform examination of the BRICS countries produced different results with respect to trade and convergence. The panel unit roots test results also show that, with the exception of the Indian economy and import-based groups, conditional convergence is visible in the BRICS alliance and all export-based groups. Additionally, flawless convergence has been confirmed in every BRICS nation. The paper so suggests that the BRICS countries should participate in competitive trade and investment activities in the post-pandemic globalization era.

The Formation of a Strategic Partnership between China and Thailand: the Role of Belt and Road Initiative

This article attempts to consider the features of formation the strategic partnership between the PRC and Thailand, by tracing bilateral relations from mutual hostility in the 1950s–1960s, establishing official contacts in the 1970s amid the changes in international politics and during the Cambodian crisis, as well as deepening cooperation on a bilateral and multilateral levels in the post-Cold War era. The important role of Thailand in the process of bridge-building between China and ASEAN is noted. The article notes that there is a consensus among the Thai elite on the need to strengthen cooperation with China, which gives Thailand new opportunities for economic growth. China is a major trading partner and key investor for Thailand and provides significant opportunities in realizing Thailand's ambitions to develop advanced technology and infrastructure. An important component of Thai foreign policy is balancing between Great Powers. However, after the 2014 coup d'etat amid deteriorating relations with the United States, Thailand's military elite significantly expanded its strategic partnership with the PRC. This is evidenced by the growing supply of Chinese military equipment and the scale of joint military exercises. Particular importance in strengthening cooperation is the development of the China–Laos–Thailand transport corridor within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, which provides countries with new logistics opportunities. The article notes that in negotiations with China, Thailand follows a policy of economic independence and consistently defends its national interests, which cause delays in the implementation of the project, but China is forced to reckon with this.

The Crisis in World Trade Law: How the Dust Is Settling

Abstract: Reform and extension of world trade law have stalled because of the WTO's consensus rule. The sense of crisis has been exacerbated by the US refusal to approve new members to the WTO Appellate Body, preventing settlement of disputes arising from current world trade law, and by the United States dropping out of the most promising plurilateral approach to extending world trade law. By unilaterally increasing tariffs, the Trump administration further indicated the US disregard for world trade law. After January 2021, President Biden quickly made clear that he would not reverse the US position on the WTO, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), or recent tariff increases. Other countries' responses to the blow to enforcing and extending world trade law were hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic that curtailed face-to-face meetings in 2020 and 2021, but the dust began clearing in 2023. In June 2023, the UK became the first new member of the CPTPP; China and Taiwan are next in the queue for accession. In 2023, Japan became the 53rd signatory of the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA), whose signatories recognize binding arbitration decisions on WTO rulings; the United States rejects the MPIA. The article ends by drawing conclusions about the future of the world trade system and the US response to initiatives supported by its major allies and other major trading nations.

An empirical study on the factors affecting seafood trade under the background of RCEP

This paper uses panel data from 2013 to 2022 on China and five member countries of RCEP, the major trading partners, to construct a gravity model of trade. It analyzes the factors influencing China's seafood trade. Based on the empirical research results, this paper proposes strategies such as increasing technological input, deepening industrial structural reforms, and actively attracting foreign direct investment.

Feasibility studies on deepening Pondicherry Port to accommodate larger vessels explored

A Union territory in India, Pondicherry was a major trading port with the Chinese during the Chola era, having been active since 100 B.C. About 150 km south of Chennai, it was an open roadstead anchorage port. Until the late 1980s, the old port operated as a lighter-age port during French rule, beginning in the 17th century. From 1986 until 1989, the New Port was developed. An offshore (south) breakwater connected to a north breakwater by a bridge makes up the New Port. The channel, which is 2000 meters long and 40 meters broad, was built between 1986 and 1989. It also has a 150-meter container berth. An undersea tunnel has been built between the north and south breakwaters to facilitate maintenance dredging and allow cargo and fishing vessels to pass through without interruption. The port was in use until 2004, when it was shut down for a lack of maintenance dredging. Since 2004, there has been no freight business; only small fishing boats are currently in use. The viability of enhancing Pondicherry Port's current infrastructure to accommodate feeder-class vessels is investigated in this paper.

Сучасний стан і перспективи розвитку зовнішньої торгівлі України з Європейським Союзом

The aim of the article is to study the current state and prospects for the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade with the European Union. It is determined that Ukraine has unique opportunities for the development of trade cooperation with the EU countries. However, Russia’s war of aggression has a strong negative impact on Ukraine’s foreign trade. It is established that the volume of trade has significantly decreased, its structure has changed. At the same time, the EU’s role as a major trading partner continues to grow. The dynamics of exports and imports of goods of Ukraine to the EU as a whole, as well as by individual EU Member States, which are trading partners of Ukraine, are considered. It is found that in 2023, Poland, Romania and Spain became the largest importers of Ukrainian goods. In 2023, Ukraine imported the most goods from Poland, Germany, and Bulgaria. The commodity structure of Ukraine’s exports to the EU in 2023 was represented mainly by agricultural products and ferrous and non-ferrous metals. The commodity structure of Ukraine’s imports from the European Union was dominated by engineering products, mineral products, and chemical products. It is determined that the volume of foreign trade in services of Ukraine and the European Union has also decreased due to the war. Thus, in 2022, there was a decrease of 33.5% compared to 2021, Ukraine’s exports of services to the EU amounted to USD 3.4 billion. Imports of services from Ukraine from the EU amounted to USD 1.7 billion. The structure of exports was dominated by services in the field of telecommunications, transport services and services for the processing of material resources. The main services imported by Ukraine were transport, business and telecommunications services. It is concluded that the EU is an important trading partner of Ukraine. Our country has significant export potential in the agricultural sector, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, etc. However, because of Russia’s war against Ukraine, logistical, financial, technological and other problems have arisen that significantly complicate foreign trade between Ukraine and the EU.