Major Source Of Risk Research Articles

Research on Construction Risk Assessment of Long-Span Cantilever Casting Concrete Arch Bridges Based on Triangular Fuzzy Theory and Bayesian Networks

Considering the complex construction processes involved, there are significant risks during the construction of long-span cantilever casting arch bridges. In this study, a risk assessment method for the construction process of cantilever casting concrete arch bridges was developed. The compositional elements and characteristics of safety risks in the construction of cantilever casting concrete arch bridges were clarified, and a safety risk source list that includes seven major risk sources and thirty-three minor risk sources was formed. Then, a Bayesian model for the risk analysis of cantilever casting concrete arch bridge construction was established, and a method was proposed to determine the prior and posterior probabilities of the Bayesian network using triangular fuzzy numbers. This method fully utilizes the experience of experts while avoiding the subjectivity of expert opinions. A cantilever casting concrete open spandrel arch bridge (Bridge A) with a total span length of 287 m was taken as an example, and a safety risk assessment was conducted during its construction process. The calculation results show that the construction safety risk level of Bridge A was level III. This engineering application verified the feasibility of determining key node parameters of the Bayesian network using triangular fuzzy numbers.

The hidden threat: Comprehensive assessment of antibiotic and disinfectant resistance in commercial pig slaughterhouses

The presence of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), disinfectant resistance genes (DRGs), and pathogens in animal food processing environments (FAPE) poses a significant risk to human health. However, knowledge of the contamination and risk profiles of a typical commercial pig slaughterhouse with periodic disinfectant applications is limited. By creating the overall metagenomics-based behavior and risk profiles of ARGs, DRGs, and microbiomes in a nine-section pig slaughterhouse, an important FAPE in China. A total of 454 ARGs and 84 DRGs were detected in the slaughterhouse with resistance genes for aminoglycosides and quaternary ammonium compounds, respectively. The entire slaughtering chain is a hotspot for pathogens, including 83 human pathogenic bacteria (HPB), with 47 core HPB. In addition, 68 high-risk ARGs were significantly correlated with 55 HPB, 30 of which were recognized as potential bacteria co-resistant to antibiotics and disinfectants, confirm a three-fold risk of ARGs, DRGs, and pathogens prevailing throughout the chain. Pre-slaughter pig house (PSPH) was the major risk source for ARGs, DRGs, and HPB. Moreover, 75 Escherichia coli and 47 Proteus mirabilis isolates showed sensitivity to potassium monopersulfate and sodium hypochlorite, suggesting that slaughterhouses should use such related disinfectants. By using whole genome multi-locus sequence typing and single nucleotide polymorphism analyses, genetically closely related bacteria were identified across distinct slaughter sections, suggesting bacterial transmission across the slaughter chain. Overall, this study underscores the critical role of the PSPH section as a major source of HPB, ARGs, and DRGs contamination in commercial pig slaughterhouses. Moreover, it highlights the importance of addressing clonal transmission and cross-contamination of antibiotic- and disinfectant-resistant bacteria within and between slaughter sections. These issues are primarily attributed to the microbial load carried by animals before slaughter, carcass handling, and content exposure during visceral treatment. Our findings provide valuable insights for One Health-oriented slaughterhouse management practices.

New roles for energy and financial markets in spillover connections: context under COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict

This paper comprehensively investigates spillover connections among eight markets in the context of COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The spillover effects are investigated from the perspectives of average and dynamic network connectedness effects. Empirical results show that changes in market stability are caused during the two periods investigated, and the effect during COVID-19 is stronger. In addition, among the spillover frameworks of energy and financial markets, the crude oil and equity markets were the major risk sources under COVID-19, while natural gas was the major risk source during the Russia–Ukraine conflict. This paper provides new insights on the spillover connections among eight markets based on the crisis periods of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

‘One System, Two Shadows’: A local public finance perspective on China's shadow banking system

Why does shadow banking persist in China despite repeated policy efforts to contain it? While studies of informal finance have traditionally emphasized the credit needs of private businesses as a demand-side explanation, this study contends that China's local public finance also constitutes an important driver for shadow banking. Based on document research and administrative data, we find that China's shadow banking system has bifurcated into two segments since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). One is the ‘entrepreneurial shadow’ that has long provided informal credit to the private sector, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises. The other is a ‘fiscal shadow’, which serves property developers and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), the two pillars of China's land-based local public finance regime. Property developers are major contributors to local fiscal revenues through the land economy, while LGFVs function as off-balance sheet backdoor financing intermediaries for local governments.Although localities have borrowed from unconventional sources throughout the reform era, the central government's GFC stimulus plan marked a turning point by fueling a debt-financed real estate and infrastructure construction boom. Property developers and LGFVs were launched onto a highly leveraged model of feverish expansion for over a decade. When the central government abruptly reversed its course by restricting the availability of formal credit, they became further entangled into the fiscal shadow for refinancing. Local public finance has thus become reliant on shadow banking, despite subsequent policy efforts to curb such activity. Our findings suggest the need for a more integrated analytic and regulatory framework that recognizes the mutual dependence between shadow banking and local debt – two major sources of systemic financial risks in China.

Hurricanes pose a substantial risk to New England forest carbon stocks.

Nature-based climate solutions (NCS) are championed as a primary tool to mitigate climate change, especially in forested regions capable of storing and sequestering vast amounts of carbon. New England is one of the most heavily forested regions in the United States (>75% forested by land area), and forest carbon is a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Large infrequent disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a major source of uncertainty and risk for policies relying on forest carbon for climate mitigation, especially as climate change is projected to alter the intensity and extent of hurricanes. To date, most research into disturbance impacts on forest carbon stocks has focused on fire. Here, we show that a single hurricane in the region can down between 121 and 250 MMTCO2e or 4.6%-9.4% of the total aboveground forest carbon, much greater than the carbon sequestered annually by New England's forests (16 MMTCO2e year-1). However, emissions from hurricanes are not instantaneous; it takes approximately 19 years for downed carbon to become a net emission and 100 years for 90% of the downed carbon to be emitted. Reconstructing hurricanes with the HURRECON and EXPOS models across a range of historical and projected wind speeds, we find that an 8% and 16% increase in hurricane wind speeds leads to a 10.7- and 24.8-fold increase in the extent of high-severity damaged areas (widespread tree mortality). Increased wind speed also leads to unprecedented geographical shifts in damage, both inland and northward, into heavily forested regions traditionally less affected by hurricanes. Given that a single hurricane can emit the equivalent of 10+ years of carbon sequestered by forests in New England, the status of these forests as a durable carbon sink is uncertain. Understanding the risks to forest carbon stocks from disturbances is necessary for decision-makers relying on forests as a NCS.

Health risk assessment of soil heavy metals in a typical mining town in north China based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with Positive matrix factorization model

The accumulation of heavy metals (HMs) in soil caused by mineral resource exploitation and its ancillary industrial processes poses a threat to ecology and public health. Effective risk control measures require a quantification of the impacts and contributions to health risks from individual sources of soil HMs. Based on high-density sampling, soil contamination risk indexes, positive matrix factorization (PMF) model, Monte Carlo simulation and human health risk analysis model were applied to investigate the risk of HMs in a typical mining town in North China. The results showed that As was the most dominant soil pollutant factor, Cd and Hg were the most dominant soil ecological risk factors, and Cr and Ni were the most dominant health risk factors in the study area. Overall, both pollution and ecological risks were at low levels, while there were still some higher hazard areas located in the central and south-central part of the region. According to the probabilistic health risk assessment (HRA), children suffered greater health risks than adults, with 21.63% of non-carcinogenic risks and 53.24% of carcinogenic risks exceeding the prescribed thresholds (HI > 1 and TCR>1E-4). The PMF model identified five potential sources: fuel combustion (FC), processing of building materials with limestone as raw materials (PBML), industry source (IS), iron ore mining combined with garbage (IOG), and agriculture source (AS). PBML is the primary source of soil HM contamination, as well as the major anthropogenic source of carcinogenic risk for all populations. Agricultural inputs associated with As are the major source of non-carcinogenic risk. This study offers a good example of probabilistic HRA using specific sources, which can provide a valuable reference for strategy establishment of pollution remediation and risk prevention and control.

A novel PDIA3/FTO/USP20 positive feedback regulatory loop induces osteogenic differentiation of preosteoblast in osteoporosis.

Osteoporosis is a chronic skeletal disease and the major source of risk for fractures in aged people. It is urgent to investigate the mechanism regulating osteoporosis for developing potential treatment and prevention strategies. Osteogenic differentiation of preosteoblast enhances bone formation, which might be a promising strategy for treatment and prevention of osteoporosis. Protein disulfide isomerase family A, member 3 (PDIA3) could induce bone formation, yet the role of PDIA3 in osteogenic differentiation of preosteoblast remains unknown. In this study, m6 A RNA methylation was detected by methylated RNA immunoprecipitation (MeRIP), while mRNA stability was identified by RNA decay assay. Besides, protein-protein interaction and protein phosphorylation were determined using co-immunoprecipitation (Co-IP). Herein, results revealed that PDIA3 promoted osteogenic differentiation of preosteoblast MC3T3-E1. Besides, PDIA3 mRNA methylation was suppressed by FTO alpha-ketoglutarate dependent dioxygenase (FTO) as RNA methylation reduced PDIA3 mRNA stability during osteogenic differentiation of MC3T3-E1 cells. Moreover, ubiquitin specific peptidase 20 (USP20) improved FTO level through inhibiting FTO degradation while PDIA3 increased FTO level by enhancing USP20 phosphorylation during osteogenic differentiation of MC3T3-E1 cells, suggesting a positive feedback regulatory loop between PDIA3 and FTO. In summary, these findings indicated the mechanism of PDIA3 regulating osteogenic differentiation of preosteoblast and provided potential therapeutic targets for osteoporosis.

Identification Of Risk Sources And Corrective Actions For Cost Overrun In The Management Of Subcontractors For The Rimp Los Package 03 Project In Indramayu, West Java

This research examines the sources of cost overrun risk in construction project management, focusing on the Range Irrigation Modernization Project (RIMP) LOS Package 03 in Indramayu, West Java. Through data analysis and literature review, major risk sources are identified, including inadequate supervision of subcontractors, subcontractor inability to complete tasks on schedule, and poorly coordinated design changes. Additionally, environmental project factors, such as unpredictable weather conditions and project site accessibility, are analyzed. The findings contribute to understanding project management practices and provide corrective action guidelines to mitigate cost overrun risks.

Flood Inundation Mapping for Porsuk Stream, Eskişehir, Turkey

Flood is one of the most widespread and catastrophic natural hazards for settlements in different parts of the world. Eskişehir has faced numerous floods at varying scales, especially in the last century. Porsuk Stream moves in an artificial channel through the Eskişehir city center. The bed of Porsuk Stream is expanded and cascaded at the entrance to the city center, and the stream has been turned into one of the attractions of the city by increasing its water level with nine regulators. Expanding the river bed is a frequently used method to reduce flood risk. However, in Eskisehir, the fact that the river bed is kept largely filled with water is a major source of risk in case of flooding. The study is based on a scenario in which flooding occurs due to the failure of regulator covers to open. In the study field, the sensitivity of the numerical field model that was created along the stream bed was further improved by measuring lengths and depths throughout the channel. Within the framework of the scenario, the water levels that can change with flood discharges were determined, and inundation areas were calculated. The results revealed that, according to the flood discharges in Porsuk Stream with probabilities of occurrence in every 50, 100, and 200 years, areas of 3.20 km2, 4.03 km2, and 4.48 km2 would be flooded, respectively. The maximum discharge with a return period of 200 years (Q200) is 194.46 m3/s, which, if realized, would result in inundation of 1.58 km2 of residential areas and 0.55 km2 of agricultural land. Of the total flood area, 35% will be residential areas, 33% will be airports, 12% will be agricultural lands, 9% will be green areas, 7% will be industrial areas and 3% will be sports facilities.

Understanding Systemic Risk Dynamics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Turkish Banking System

The banking crisis experienced at the beginning of 2023 in the aftermath of the global 2008 crisis served as a stark reminder of the importance of systemic risk once again across the world. This study examines the dynamics of systemic risk in the Turkish banking system and its impact on sustainable economic growth between the period of 2007 and 2022. Through the Component Expected Shortfall (CES) method and quantile spillover analysis, private banks, such as Garanti Bank (GARAN), Akbank (AKBNK), İş Bank (ISCTR), and Yapı ve Kredi Bank (YKBNK), are identified as major sources of systemic risk. The analysis reveals a high level of interconnectedness among the banks during market downturns, with TSKB, Vakıfbank (VAKBNK), İş Bank (ISCTR), Halk Bank (HALKB), Akbank (AKBNK), Yapı ve Kredi Bank (YKBNK), and Garanti Bank (GARAN) serving as net risk transmitters, while QNB Finansbank (QNBFB), ICBC Turkey Bank (ICBCT), Şekerbank (SKBNK), GSD Holding (GSD), and Albaraka Türk (ALBRK) act as net risk receivers. Employing the Markov switching VAR (MS-VAR) model, the study finds that increased systemic risk significantly reduces economic growth during heightened financial periods. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring systemic risks and implementing proactive measures in the banking sector. The policy implications highlight the requirement for regulators and policymakers to prioritize systemic risk management. Close monitoring helps detect weaknesses and imbalances that could put financial stability at risk. Timely implementation of policies and rules is crucial in the prevention of the accumulation of systemic risks and in dealing with the existing hazards. Such measures protect the stability of the banking sector and mitigate potential negative effects on the broader economy.

Receptor model-based source-specific health risks of toxic metal(loid)s in coal basin-induced agricultural soil in northwest Bangladesh.

Toxic metal(loid)s (TMLs) in agricultural soils cause detrimental effects on ecosystem and human health. Therefore, source-specific health risk apportionment is very crucial for the prevention and control of TMLs in agricultural soils. In this study, 149 surface soil samples were taken from a coal mining region in northwest Bangladesh and analyzed for 12 TMLs (Pb, Cd, Ni, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Zn, Cu, As, Se, and Hg). Positive matrix factorization (PMF) and absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) receptor models were employed to quantify the pollution sources of soil TMLs. Both models identified five possible sources of pollution: agrochemical practice, industrial emissions, coal-power-plant, geogenic source, and atmospheric deposition, while the contribution rates of each source were calculated as 28.2%, 17.2%, 19.3%, 19% and 16.3% in APCS-MLR, 22.2%, 13.4%, 24.3%, 15.1% and 25.1% in PMF, respectively. Agrochemical practice was the major source of non-carcinogenic risk (NCR) (adults: 32.37%, children: 31.54%), while atmospheric deposition was the highest source of carcinogenic risk (CR) (adults: 48.83%, children: 50.11%). NCR and CR values for adults were slightly higher than for children. However, the trends in NCR and CR between children and adults were similar. As a result, among the sources of pollution, agrochemical practices and atmospheric deposition have been identified as the primary sources of soil TMLs, so prevention and control strategies should be applied primarily for these pollution sources in order to protect human health.

Enhancing sustainable valorization: Harmless synergistic melting treatment for high-value vitreous products from MSWI fly ash and electrolytic manganese residue

The waste-to-energy and manganese industries face significant ecological challenges due to two major risk sources: municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) fly ash and electrolytic manganese residue (EMR), especially, the MSWI fly is classified as hazardous waste. High temperature melting is a promising method for harmless disposal of solid wastes. However, it has yet to be industrialized due to the high costs and energy consumption. This study proposes using EMR as an additive to co-melt with MSWI fly ash, aiming to develop a method that minimizes energy consumption while producing high value-added products. To this end, the phase evolution and phase-change cooling characteristics during the co-melting process of MSWI fly ash and EMR were experimentally investigated. XRD and SEM analyses revealed that pure vitreous slag can be obtained when mixtures are heated to 1500 °C for 120 min with ≥40 wt% EMR addition under natural air-cooling conditions. Additionally, to produce vitreous slag by air-cooling and increase MSWI fly ash treatment capacity, the molten mixture with 30 wt% EMR addition was adopted in the directional solidification experiments to establish a predictive model relating the average cooling rate to the glass content. The findings ultimately contribute to the advancement of melting-based industrial applications.

Using Machine Learning to Improve Cost and Duration Prediction Accuracy in Green Building Projects

A major source of risk in green building projects (GBPs) is inaccurate human prediction of the final project cost and duration, which in turn results in cost and schedule overruns (i.e., poor project performance). This paper presents promising new models to mitigate such risk based upon machine learning (ML). Historical data from 198 GBPs in Hong Kong were used to develop and train two fully connected deep neural networks (DNN) models to learn and predict cost and duration, respectively, based on green building rating (GBR) and other project parameters. The models can predict cost and duration with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 0.07 and 0.09, respectively. They were then integrated with support vector regression (SVR), and results indicated that the integrated DNN-SVR models improve prediction accuracy, decreasing the MAPE from 0.07 to 0.06 (cost) and 0.09 to 0.07 (duration), respectively. The validated models were for the first time deployed as a ML-based web application for automated, fast, and accurate GBP cost and duration prediction. The feature importance analysis results revealed that the most influential parameters on the GBP cost and duration are project area and weather, respectively, not the GBR. Theoretically, the outcomes of this study provide new insights into the impact of GBR on project cost and duration, which are useful for the promotion of GBPs to improve sustainability. Practically, the study provides policymakers and practitioners with novel ML-based models and a web application to improve GBP delivery performance.

Comprehensive Assessment of Pollution Sources and Health Impacts in Suburban Area of Shanghai.

Shanghai, one of China's largest metropolises, faces significant environmental pollution challenges due to rapid economic development. Suburban areas of Shanghai are affected by both long-distance transport and local sources of pollutants. This study conducted an integrated analysis that links health-risk assessment of heavy metals and source apportionment of atmospheric constituents to distinguish the contributions of emission sources and the major sources of health risks. Source-apportionment analysis revealed that secondary sources had the greatest contribution to the local pollutants, indicating the significant influence of peripheral and long-distance transport. Health-risk assessment of Cr, Ni, As, and Cd revealed that local residents were exposed to respiratory health risks, in which Cr is the major contributor. This health risk was primarily associated with emissions from nearby industry-related sources. Our study highlights the significant effects of both long-distance transport and local source emissions on atmospheric composition and human health in large urban agglomerations. The findings can inform future efforts to develop more precise emission-reduction strategies and policy improvements to mitigate environmental pollution and protect public health.

Assessing Landslide Drivers in Social–Ecological–Technological Systems: The Case of Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, Brazil

Urban landslides are increasing globally, mainly caused by human-induced changes in hillsides. Most of these events have caused low-intensity damages to housing and infrastructure. A total of 2038 locations of landslides in the hydrological year of 2010 were used to model landslides’ occurrence in the metropolitan region of São Paulo—Brazil—using a social–ecological–technological system’s approach, which enables the analysis of urban landslides as the outcome of dynamic socioeconomic and infrastructural conditions alongside climatic and geophysical conditions. A multi-step model approach was used to select the best set of variables related to landslides’ occurrence and assess their importance. The value of AUC of the model was 0.9087, denoting the high level of discrimination achieved. Antecedent rainfall played the most important role, followed by terrain slope. Informal settlements, associated with poor constructive practices and a lack of municipal inspection on civil works and buildings, as well as the number of households, which stands for built density and greater alteration in hillsides, yielded a slightly lower contribution. Other variables showed a marginal contribution. These results reinforce the role of local ordinances aimed at restricting occupation in steeper slopes and public policies to promote adequate housing and constructive practices. Future climate projections to MRSP point to the increase in intense rainfall days, making disasters caused by landslides a major source of risk.

On a handshake: business-to-business trust in the biosecurity behaviours of the UK live plant trade

The movement of plants through the ornamental plant trade presents a major source of risk for the introduction and spread of plant pests and pathogens. To minimise the likelihood of infested or infected plants moving through the value chain, individual businesses can adopt a range of biosecurity practices to prevent introduction on site, as well as detecting and then containing or eradicating any plant pests or pathogens present. However, a major additional source of risk is the arrival of unhealthy plants sourced from a supplier. Using the example of bacterial plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa which has a large host range and potentially devastating economic and environmental impacts, we highlight the importance of trust when businesses navigate the risks of sourcing plants. Through interviews and a survey with a range of plant businesses, we show (i) how two general types of risk—relational risk associated with suppliers acting in good faith, and performance risk associated with suppliers having the ability to perform as expected—can be applied to the challenge of sourcing healthy plants, (ii) how businesses respond to these risks through behaviours based on trust and control, and (iii) the potential outcomes of trust-based and control-based behaviours in the presence of a hard to detect pathogen such as Xylella fastidiosa. We conclude that trust is a significant component in decision-making in the live plant trade, and as such any behavioural interventions designed to encourage better biosecurity practices in the industry should capitalise on this understanding to strengthen responses and avoid undermining of effort.

Mission Critical ESG and the Scope of Director Oversight Duties

Corporations are facing increased scrutiny over how they treat their stakeholders and society at large. Failing to address key environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns may generate significant blowback, making it harder for corporations to attract talent, access capital, and sell products. ESG concerns have thus become a major source of reputational and financial risk for companies and their shareholders. One way for shareholders to hold managers personally accountable for being inattentive to critical ESG risks is by filing a derivative action on behalf of the company, claiming that managers breached their oversight duties (Caremark duties). Until recently, corporate legal scholars have dismissed this possibility, reasoning that oversight duties are generally unenforceable. That reasoning is no longer valid. In the past two years, Delaware courts have revamped their Caremark framework. The courts are now increasingly willing to apply heightened scrutiny to directors’ efforts, and increasingly willing to grant shareholders access to internal company documents in order to investigate failure-of-oversight claims. There can no longer be any question about Caremark’s relevance, but there remains a question about Caremark’s scope. Would the courts be as willing to apply heightened scrutiny and provide access to pre-suit discovery when the case concerns nonlegal risks? In other words, do directors face personal liability for how their companies treat the environment, diversity, and privacy, even when such behaviors are not punishable by law?
 This Article examines the evolving scope of director oversight duties and makes three contributions. First, the Article synthesizes the caselaw to clarify that the relevant question when determining Caremark’s scope is not whether a risk is “legal” or “reputational,” but rather whether the risk is “critical” to the company’s success. The Article’s second contribution is to build an analytical framework for distinguishing between ESG risks that are critical (and thus subject to a realistic Caremark liability threat) and those that are not. The Article then applies the framework to concrete ESG concerns, such as cybersecurity, climate change, and sexual misconduct. Finally, the Article evaluates the social desirability of extending Caremark to oversight of nonlegal risks. The key disadvantage of doing so is that it increases the costs of judicial hindsight bias, while the key advantage is that it counterbalances the flaws of other ESG enforcement mechanisms. The Article concludes that courts should adopt a more judiciable approach when scrutinizing board oversight of nonlegal risks.

Quantifying ecological and human health risks of metal(loid)s pollution from non-ferrous metal mining and smelting activities in Southwest China

The environmental release and transfer of heavy metal(loids) from natural and anthropogenic sources to neighboring habitats can pose an ecological threat to the exposed biota and habitat, as well as a human health risk to the residents. However, analytical tools to identify the potential contamination source(s) and assess the impact of this transfer have not been well described. Soil samples were collected from affected areas proximal to non-ferrous metal(loid)s mining and smelting facilities. Two integrated assessment methods, based on soil total metal(loid) content, included: (1) the potential ecological risk index combined with positive matrix factorization (PMF) and (2) human health risk assessment combined with PMF. Results indicated that there were four generic sources of pollution (based on PMF analyses of 115 replicated samples collected from four study areas): agricultural and industrial activities, traffic emissions, and natural sources. For ecological risk, the contribution of these metal(loid)s pollution sources were industrial activities (20.34–70.76 %), traffic emissions (18.73–56.93 %), natural sources (3.69–27.02 %), and agricultural activities (3.79–21.43 %). Health risks were higher for children than for adults. Industrial activity was a major source of non-carcinogenic risk to children (32.10–74.62 %) and adults (31.33–73.78 %), and carcinogenic risk to children (22.53–67.27 %) and adults (20.69–64.76 %). Total metal analysis indicated that As and Cd were highly enriched in the soil, but chemical fractionation revealed low As mobility. Total Cd and possibly As were the main pollutants causing the ecological risks at these contaminated sites. This study demonstrates that ecological and human health risks could be quantified to prioritize the pollution sources for reasonable contaminated site risk management.

Deciphering risks of resistomes and pathogens in intensive laying hen production chain

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and pathogens derived from food animals and their associated environments have emerged as challenging threats to humans from a health perspective, but our understanding of these risks and their key prevention and control points in the current intensive breeding industry remains poor. By creating an integral composition and risk profile of the resistome and microbiome through metagenomics in feces, flies, dust, sewage, and soil along the four-stage laying hen production chain, we found that the whole production chain is a hotspot for antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) with 374 known subtypes and pathogens, including 157 human pathogenic bacteria (HPB). Feces and flies were identified as major risk sources for these contaminations. Also, we confirmed a twin-risk of AMR and pathogenicity prevailing throughout the chain, but with different frequencies in each stage; thus, high-risk ARGs in the young chicken stage and highly prioritized HPB in the chick stage contributed 37.33 % to the total AMR risk and 36.36 % to the pathogenic risks, respectively, thus rendering the two stages to be the key prevention points. Moreover, the prevalence of 112 binned ARG supercarriers (for example, Klebsiella pneumoniae harboring 20 ARGs) was unraveled along the production chain, especially in feces, flies, and dust, and 87 potential hosts exhibited high pathogenic risk, high-risk AMR, or both, with 262 ARGs and 816 virulence factor genes. Overall, this study provides first-hand comprehensive data on high-risk ARGs and their pathogenic hosts in the intensive laying hen production chain, and thus is fundamentally important for developing new measures to help control the global AMR crisis induced through the animal-environment-human pathway.

Multi-methods to investigate spatiotemporal variations of nitrogen-nitrate and its risks to human health in China's largest fresh water lake (Poyang Lake)

Nitrogen-nitrate contamination has been recognized as the main threaten to the large lake surrounding with the intensive agriculture activities. However, there are still insufficient studies on the interannual evolution of nitrogen-nitrate, source and its impact on the environment and human health in the large fresh water lake. In this study, 248 samplings were collected in Poyang Lake from 2013 to 2018, multi-methods (mathematical statistics method, grey correlation analysis, person correlation analysis and human health risk assessment) to investigate the spatiotemporal variations, impact factors and potential health risks of NO2−-N, NO3−-N and NH4+-N. The results showed that the middle region had the highest NO2− concentration (mean 0.04μg/l), the northern region had the highest NO3− concentration (mean 1.12 mg/l), and the southern region had the highest NH4+ concentration (mean 0.48 mg/l). For NO3− and NH4+, the concentration was higher than in the wet season. While the concentration of NO2− had the reverse trend. Grey correlation analysis and person correlation analysis results indicate that nitrogen fertilizer, waste water, pH, CODMn and temperature were main factors affecting the nitrogen concentration in Poyang Lake. Health risk assessment results revealed that potential hazards in the study area were acceptable (HR < 1). NO3− provided the highest health risks, and oral ingestion is the major source of local nitrogen health risk. Those results can provide the reference for developing the treatment methods of the international large freshwater lake.