Major League Baseball Games Research Articles

Re-examining the betting market on Major League Baseball games: is there a reverse favourite-longshot bias?

A recent study of the fixed-odds betting market on baseball games, while finding that the betting market is generally efficient, also found evidence of an underbetting on underdog teams. This article examines the evidence for this new anomaly. It corrects Woodland and Woodland's estimates of the commission, subjective win probabilities and test statistics. The efficiency null hypothesis cannot be rejected for all of their tests when revised test statistics are calculated for their sample period (however, like them, it was found that slight underdogs are underbet). It is also shown that their bias is not simply a bias involving favourites and underdogs. Whether underdogs are playing at home or away also seems to matter in their sample period. As well a positive relationship between returns and subjective probabilities was found for underdogs and favourites, a relationship suggestive of a favourite-longshot bias rather than its reverse. It is concluded that there is insufficient evidence to claim that this bias is a ‘true market inefficiency’.

The home field advantage revisited: a search for the bias in other sports betting markets

Recent research describes a bias in the pricing of the home field advantage in the betting market on National Football League games with a national focus (Monday night and playoff games). Home teams, especially home team underdogs, win at a rate sufficient to reject both the unbiased forecast and absence of profit opportunities versions of market efficiency. This paper extends the examination of the pricing of the home field advantage, particularly in games with a national focus, to the point spread betting market on National Basketball Association games and the fixed odds betting market on Major League Baseball games. Contrary to the football results, we find little evidence of a mispricing of the home field advantage in either regular season or playoff games in both basketball and baseball. Further, betting on all home teams is never profitable in either league. Additionally, the paper examines the latest three football seasons and finds no mispricing in games with a national focus in this out-of-sample period. We conclude that these markets are, in general, efficient.

Baseball Box Scores: Helpful Statistics or Sports Hieroglyphics?

This survey of fans at a major league baseball game shows few understand all the abbreviations and notations in baseball box scores.

Expected utility, skewness, and the baseball betting market

A subjective expected utility model is developed to explain the gambling behaviour of bettors on Major League Baseball games in the United States. Betting activity was examined over 15 seasons, for the period 1978 - 1992. The observed overbetting of favourite teams by baseball bettors can be reconciled without abandoning the traditional assumption of risk aversion. Additionally, there is some evidence to suggest that positive skewness has a discernible influence in the decision-making process for higher odds contests.

Survey of medical services at major league baseball stadiums.

To analyze the availability and level of medical services for fans at major league baseball games in the United States. A 10-item questionnaire was sent to the operations managers of each of 28 major league baseball stadiums. The survey was distributed in cooperation with a major league baseball club. Telephone follow-up was used to complete missing responses. The survey addressed five areas of fan medical services: 1) health-care provider availability and compensation; 2) advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) capabilities, including equipment; 3) presence of on-site ambulance(s); 4) fan fatalities; and 5) alcohol consumption limitations. Survey response was 100%. Healthcare providers are on-site at all stadiums: nurses (86%), physicians (75%), emergency medical technicians (EMTs, [68%]), and paramedics (50%). Ninety-six percent use a combination of health-care providers. The most common medical teams are nurse+EMT+physician (25%) and nurse+EMT+paramedic+physician (18%). All health-care providers receive some form of compensation. All stadiums have at least one ACLS-certified provider; 96% have ACLS equipment. Ambulances are on-site 75% of the time. Sixty-eight percent of the clubs reported at least one fan fatality through the 1992 and 1993 seasons (mean 1.1, range 0-4). All clubs limit alcohol consumption; 96% use multiple approaches. The various approaches include: 1) specific inning discontinuation (86%); 2) maximum purchase (68%); 3) restricted sale locations (64%); and 4) crowd conduct (57%). Advertisement for responsible alcohol consumption is displayed at 75% of the stadiums; designated-driver programs exist at 46%. All major league baseball clubs provide medical services for fans. Furthermore, almost all stadiums have ACLS capabilities. Responsible alcohol consumption also is a recognized priority for fan safety.

The Demand for Major League Baseball: A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

The relationship between attendance at major league baseball games and the uncertainty of the outcome of each game is examined. We use an a priori measure of uncertainty in estimating the attendance equation. The variable is developed from the betting lines for individual games and measures the probability of a home team victory during the 1988 major league baseball season. The results indicate that uncertainty of outcome is a significant determinant of attendance for major league baseball. In addition, the results are used to determine the probability of a home team victory at which attendance will be maximized.

Declines in Major League Batting Performance as a Function of Game Pressure: A Drive Theory Analysis1

Zajonc's (1965) drive theory explanation argues that greater arousal tends to impair performance on difficult tasks. The hypothesis that arousal generated by “pressure situations” during major league baseball games would hinder batting performance—a difficult task—was tested by examining such performance during the 1989 season. Six “pressure situations” were identified, some occurring during the late innings of close games and others occurring throughout the game when there were two outs. Two measures of batting performance (batting average and slugging average) were employed. Results indicated broad support for the hypothesis. Reasons for this pattern are discussed, as are possible alternative explanations for these findings.

Temper and Temperature on the Diamond: The Heat-Aggression Relationship in Major League Baseball

Archival data from major league baseball games played during the 1986, 1987, and 1988 seasons (total N = 826 games) were used to assess the association between the temperatures at the games and the number of batters hit by a pitch during them. A positive and significant relationship was found between temperature and the number of hit batters per game, even when potentially confounding variables having nothing to do with aggression were partialed out. A similar relationship was found for games played during the 1962 season. The shape of this relationship appears to be linear, suggesting that higher temperatures lead major league pitchers to become more aggressive in pitching to batters.

Take Me Out to the Ballgame: The Effects of Objective, Social, and Temporal Performance Information on Attendance at Major League Baseball Games

Two studies examined the relationship between objective, social, and temporal performance indices and fan support of major league baseball teams. In the first study, per game attendance figures for 22 major league teams were regressed on the performance indices. Attendance was found to be positively related to objective and social performance and negatively related to temporal performance. These results were replicated in the second study when season ticket sales for five major league teams was the dependent variable. Although the objective and social results were consistent with expectations, the negative relationship between temporal performance and fan support was unexpected. Primacy effects and regression toward the mean are offered as explanations for this latter finding. The results of both studies are considered in terms of the optimum marketing strategy for professional team sports.

The demand for minor league baseball

Overall our model explains 80 percent of the variation in attendance at minor league baseball games for 27 teams over the 1973–77 seasons. This is a remarkable proportion of the variance to be explained by a pooled cross-section-time-series model with 86 observations. Demmert's model explained 58 percent of the variation in per capita attendance in major league baseball over the 1951–69 period and Noll's model explained 69 percent of the variation in absolute attendance at major league baseball games during 1970–71. The F-ratio indicates that our overall model is statistically significant. Our empirical estimation of the demand for minor league baseball attendance supports the general hypotheses one derives from the theory of consumer demand. As expected, the quantity demanded is negatively related to price; the elasticity of demand is less than one. Per capita income has little effect on attendance, but the quality and excitement of play seem to be important to fans. Surprisingly, winning has no effect on attendance. Promotional efforts appear to be effective in generating attendance, but paid advertising seems to be wholly ineffective.