Main Updraft Research Articles

Synoptic, dynamical and microphysical properties for splitting and non-splitting hailstorms

Understanding storm splitting is of great importance for improving severe weather prediction and risk management. To further understand the mechanisms that cause hailstorm splitting, synoptic, dynamical and microphysical properties for a splitting hailstorm occurred on 19 June 2017 and a non-splitting hailstorm on 16 July 2014 in Beijing in the middle latitudes are investigated and compared based on synoptic maps, radar and sounding observations, as well as a three-dimensional cloud model with hail-bin microphysics. The results indicate that both hailstorms occurred under conditions with quite similar synoptic patterns, a tilting westerly trough at 500 hPa and a cold vertex at 700 hPa, and a clockwise-curved hodograph. However, the intensities of the westerly trough and low-level vertical wind shear were much stronger for the splitting hailstorm case than those for the non-splitting hailstorm case, so that the interactions between dynamical and microphysical processes in the splitting storm are also much stronger. It is found that for the splitting storm case the strong low-level vertical wind shear can cause large asymmetric pressure perturbation, pressure gradient forces and selective development in the storm and induce an obvious main updraft core splitting in the developing stage. The descending of high graupel/hail loading in the stable tropopause and lower stratospheric layer can excite strong downward propagating gravity waves (GWs) that induce a rapid storm splitting in the mature and decaying stages. In contrast, for the non-splitting storm, the relevant processes in the developing stage and the GWs excited by the descending of graupel/hail in the mature and decaying stages are too weak to cause an obvious splitting in the storm.

Dynamical Analyses of a Supercell Tornado in Eastern China Based on a Real-Data Simulation

Tornadoes are extremely destructive natural disasters, and East China has become a high-incidence area for tornadoes in China in recent years. On 7 July 2013, an EF2-intensity tornado occurred in Gaoyou County, Jiangsu Province in eastern China, within a supercell storm near a Meiyu frontal system. To investigate the dynamical process of the tornado, a numerical simulation was performed using four one-way nested grids within the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). Data from a nearby operational S-band Doppler radar are assimilated using a 4D ensemble Kalman filter (4DEnKF) at 5 min intervals. Forecasts are run with a nested 50 m grid, capturing the tornado embedded within the supercell storm with a reasonable agreement with observations. The tornadogenesis processes within the simulation results are analyzed in detail, including the three-dimensional evolution of the tornado vortex. It is found that a cold surge within the rear flank downdraft region plays a key role in instigating tornadogenesis when the leading edge of the cold surge approaches a near-ground convergence center located underneath the main updraft, and the enhancement of the convergence center caused by the descending of the low-level mesocyclone is the direct cause of the rapid increase in tornado vorticity. Backward trajectories are calculated based on model output, and the origins of the parcels feeding the intensifying tornado vortex are identified. It is found that parcels from the mid-level of the rear flank downdraft region follow the cold surge, descending to the ground under the influence of the downdraft in the cold surge, and then entering the convergence center, merging into the core of the tornado and being lifted up. Vertical profiles of the mass and vorticity fluxes into the core of the tornado vortex are examined, and it is found that the near-ground airflow contributes significantly to the growth of the tornado vorticity, with the contribution increasing as it gets closer to the ground.

A Variational Method for Analyzing Vortex Flows in Radar-Scanned Tornadic Mesocyclones. Part IV: Applications to the 20 May 2013 Oklahoma Tornadic Mesocyclone

Abstract The variational method for vortex flow (VF) analyses, called VF-Var (formulated in Part I), is applied to the 20 May 2013 Newcastle–Moore tornadic mesocyclone observed from the operational KTLX radar and an experimental phased-array radar. The dual-Doppler-analyzed VF field reveals the following features: The axisymmetric part of the VF is a well-defined slantwise two-cell vortex in which the maximum tangential velocity is nearly 40 m s−1 at the edge of the vortex core (0.6 km from the vortex center), the central downdraft velocity reaches −35 m s−1 at 3-km height, and the surrounding-updraft velocity reaches 26 m s−1 at 5-km height. The total VF field is a loosely defined slantwise two-cell vortex consisting of a nearly axisymmetric vortex core (in which the ground-relative surface wind speed reaches 50 m s−1 on the southeast edge), a strong nonaxisymmetric slantwise downdraft in the vortex core, and a main updraft in a banana-shaped area southeast of the vortex core, which extends slantwise upward and spirals cyclonically around the vortex core. The single-Doppler analysis with observations from the KTLX radar only exhibits roughly the same features as the dual-Doppler analysis but contains spurious vertical-motion structures in and around the vortex core. Analysis errors are assessed by leveraging the findings from Parts II and III, which indicate that the dual-Doppler-analyzed VF is accurate enough to represent the true VF but the single-Doppler-analyzed VF is not (especially for nonaxisymmetric vertical motions in and around the vortex core), so the dual-Doppler-analyzed VF should be useful for initializing/verifying high-resolution tornado simulations. Significance Statement After the variational method for vortex flow (VF) analyses, called VF-Var (formulated in Part I of this paper series), was tested successfully with simulated radar observations in Part II and its sensitivity to vortex center location error was examined in Part III, the method is now applied to the 20 May 2013 Newcastle–Moore tornadic mesocyclone observed from the operational KTLX radar and an experimental phased-array radar. Analysis errors are assessed by leveraging the findings from Parts II and III. The results indicate that the dual-Doppler-analyzed VF is accurate enough to represent the true VF (although the single-Doppler-analyzed VF is not especially for nonaxisymmetric vertical motions in and around the vortex core) and thus should be useful for initializing/verifying high-resolution tornado simulations.

The scattering mechanism of squall lines with C-Band dual polarization radar. Part I: echo characteristics and particles phase recognition

Squall line is a kind of common mesoscale disaster weather. At present, there are few studies on the elaborate detection of squall line by dual polarization radar. With the dual polarization upgrade of weather radar network, we need to study the relationship between squall line echoes of base data and polarization data to reveal new echo phenomena and formation mechanisms. The relationship between radar parameters and atmospheric physical processes also need to be examined. Based on the NUIST CDP radar, a squall line in the Yangtze and Huaihe River basin that occurred from July 30 to 31, 2014 is analyzed. The results show that polarization parameters have obvious advantages in the characteristics analysis of size, phase state, shape and orientation of the water condensate particles. The phase states of water condensate particles in convection cell can be distinguished through comparative discussion. Several phase states exist in the squall line, including small, medium and large raindrops, melting hails, dry hails and ice crystal particles and the ZDR column can be used to identify the location of the main updraft. In addition, the polarization parameters are more sensitive to the melting layer. The gust front is presented as a narrow linear echo in Z affected by strong turbulence. It is an obvious velocity convergence line in V and approximately 0.70 in ρHV. The ZDR can be used as a criterion to distinguish the horizontal and vertical scale of turbulence. The deforming turbulence, which is affected by environmental airflow, will cause an abnormally high ZDR in the gust front and a negative ZDR before and after the gust front. The variation of ZDR depends on the turbulence arrangement, orientation and relative position between turbulence and radar. These dual polarization parameter characteristics offer insights into understanding the structure and evolution of the squall line.

A Deep-Learning Model for Automated Detection of Intense Midlatitude Convection Using Geostationary Satellite Images

AbstractIntense thunderstorms threaten life and property, impact aviation, and are a challenging forecast problem, particularly without precipitation-sensing radar data. Trained forecasters often look for features in geostationary satellite images such as rapid cloud growth, strong and persistent overshooting tops, U- or V-shaped patterns in storm-top temperature (and associated above-anvil cirrus plumes), thermal couplets, intricate texturing in cloud albedo (e.g., “bubbling” cloud tops), cloud-top divergence, spatial and temporal trends in lightning, and other nuances to identify intense thunderstorms. In this paper, a machine-learning algorithm was employed to automatically learn and extract salient features and patterns in geostationary satellite data for the prediction of intense convection. Namely, a convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained on 0.64-μm reflectance and 10.35-μm brightness temperature from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and flash-extent density (FED) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on board GOES-16. Using a training dataset consisting of over 220 000 human-labeled satellite images, the CNN learned pertinent features that are known to be associated with intense convection and skillfully discriminated between intense and ordinary convection. The CNN also learned a more nuanced feature associated with intense convection—strong infrared brightness temperature gradients near cloud edges in the vicinity of the main updraft. A successive-permutation test ranked the most important predictors as follows: 1) ABI 10.35-μm brightness temperature, 2) ABI GLM flash-extent density, and 3) ABI 0.64-μm reflectance. The CNN model can provide forecasters with quantitative information that often foreshadows the occurrence of severe weather, day or night, over the full range of instrument-scan modes.

The Relationship between Overshooting Tops in a Tornadic Supercell and Its Radar-Observed Evolution

Abstract This is a study of a tornadic supercell in Kansas on 14 May 2018 in which data of relatively high spatiotemporal resolution from a mobile, polarimetric, X-band, Doppler radar were integrated with GOES-16 geosynchronous satellite imagery, and with fixed-site, surveillance, S-band polarimetric Doppler radar data. The data-collection period spanned the early life of the storm from when it was just a series of ordinary cells, with relatively low cloud tops, through its evolution into a supercell with much higher cloud tops, continuing through the formation and dissipation of a brief tornado, and ending after the supercell came to a stop and reversed direction, produced another tornado, and collided with a quasi-linear convective system. The main goal of this study was to examine the relationship between the overshooting tops and radar observed features prior to and during tornadogenesis. The highest radar echo top was displaced about 10 km, mainly to the north or northeast of the main updraft and cloud top, from the supercell phase through the first tornado phase of the supercell phase, after which the updraft and the cloud top became more closely located and then jumped ahead; this behavior is consistent with what would be expected during cyclic mesocyclogenesis. The change in direction of the supercell later on occurred while the nocturnal low-level jet was intensifying. No relationship was apparent between changes in the highest cloud-top height and tornadogenesis, but changes in cloud-top heights (rapid increases and rapid decreases) were related to two phases in multicell evolution and to supercell formation.

Impact of cloud microphysical processes on the simulation of a hailstorm in East China

Two severe hailstorms that occurred during spring in east China were simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model, version 3.9, with four bulk microphysics schemes. Despite some general similarities in the simulation results, the microphysical schemes produced many differences in the radar structure, surface precipitation, wind field, and the mass of hydrometeors. In particular, the Morrison (MOR) scheme produced the best prediction of the radar structure, while the Milbrandt–Yau two-moment (MY2) scheme produced the worst. The mass of ice-phase particles differed greatly in different schemes. An accumulation zone of supercooled rainwater was found in the WDM6 scheme. Analysis of the mass and heat budgets of hydrometeors revealed that embryos of hail were mainly formed through the collection of ice and rain (MOR) or conversion from graupel (MY2), and developed by collecting cloud droplets (MOR) or rainwater (MY2). Microphysical processes generally cooled the air at lower levels while warming it in the mid-upper troposphere. Based on the 1-km resolution results simulated by MOR and MY2, the growth mechanism of hailstones was analyzed preliminarily. Hail embryos were first formed at the upper edge of the upright main updraft, which could be regarded as the “embryo curtain”, and developed through up–down cycling. To conclude, we present a conceptual model of the initial, developing, mature and dissipating stages of the two hailstorm cases.

The 6 May 2010 Elevated Supercell during VORTEX2

An elevated supercell from the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) on 6 May 2010 is investigated. Observations show that the supercell formed over a stable inversion and was likely decoupled from the surface. Quintessential features of a supercell were present, including a hook echo (albeit bent anticyclonically) and midlevel mesocyclone, and the storm was quasi steady during the observing period. A weak surface cold pool formed, but it was apparently devoid of air originating from midlevels. Idealized modeling using near-storm soundings is employed to clarify the structure and maintenance of this supercell. The simulated storm is decoupled from the surface by the stable layer. Additionally, the reflectivity structure of the simulated supercell is strikingly similar to the observed storm, including its peculiar anticyclonic-curving hook echo. Air parcels above 1 km reached their LFCs as a result of the simulated supercell’s own dynamic lifting, which likely maintained the main updraft throughout its life. In contrast, low-level air in the simulation followed an “up–down” trajectory, being lifted dynamically within the stable layer before becoming strongly negatively buoyant and descending back to the surface. Up–down parcels originating in the lowest 100 m are shown to be a potential driver of severe surface winds. The complementary observations and simulations highlight a range of processes that may act in concert to maintain supercells in environments lacking surface-based CAPE.

Characteristics of flash initiations in a supercell cluster with tornadoes

Flash initiations within a supercell cluster during 10–11 May 2010 in Oklahoma were investigated based on observations from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array and the Norman, Oklahoma, polarimetric radar (KOUN). The flash initiations at positions dominated by graupel, dry snow, small hail and crystals accounted for 44.3%, 44.1%, 8.0% and 3.0% of the total flashes, respectively. During the tornadic stage of the southern supercell in the cluster, flash initiations associated with graupel occupied the main body, the right flank and the forward flank of the supercell, while those associated with dry snow dominated the outskirts of the adjacent forward anvil, right anvil and rear anvil. The flash initiations associated with small hail were concentrated around the main updraft, particularly toward its front side. Highly dense flash initiations were located in the regions overlying the differential reflectivity (ZDR) arc and right anvil. The average initial height of the flashes decreased gradually from the rear to the front and from the right to the left flanks, while the height range over which initiations occurred reached a maximum at the front of the updraft. The flashes that were initiated in the adjacent forward anvils were largest on average, followed by those in the regions ahead of the updraft and near the ZDR arc. This study supports the concept of charge pockets and further deduces that the pockets in the right anvil are the most abundant and compact due to the frequent flash initiations, small-sized flashes and thin layers including flash initiations.

On the Mechanisms of Rain Formation in an Idealized Supercell Storm

Abstract Deep convective storms produce raindrops through three mechanisms: condensation and coalescence growth of cloud liquid droplets (i.e., warm processes), melting of ice hydrometeors, and shedding from wet hailstones. To investigate the relative importance of these mechanisms and their contributions to exotic drop size distributions (DSDs) observed near the surface in supercell storms, an idealized simulation of a supercell is performed using a modified version of the Morrison two-moment microphysics scheme. The modified scheme includes separate categories for warm, shed, and melted rain. Rain originating from melting ice dominates the rain mass at low levels, especially along the right forward-flank precipitation shield, whereas shed-rain drops dominate a region within the left forward flank. Warm rain is only dominant in the upshear portion of the rear flank of the storm at low levels, though it dominates the total rain mass within the main updraft aloft. The warm-rain mass at low levels is associated with strong low-level downdrafts, consistent with previously published hypotheses based on polarimetric radar observations. Raindrops produced via warm processes are smaller on average than those produced by shedding and melting; drops in the latter class tend to be the largest. Overall, the simulations fail to reproduce the diverse nature of observed supercell DSDs, although the modified microphysics scheme does increase the variability of surface DSDs compared to the Control run. This implies that more sophisticated treatment of rain microphysics is needed to capture the natural variability of supercell DSDs, including the ability to evolve the DSD spectral shape through sedimentation and collisional processes.

Relationships between convective asymmetry, imbalance and intensity in numerically simulated tropical cyclones

This article examines the relationships between convective asymmetry (CA), imbalance and intensity in tropical cyclones (TCs) that emerge from random winds on the periodic f-plane in a cloud-system-resolving numerical model. The model is configured with warm-rain microphysics and includes a basic parameterisation of long-wave radiation. Within the simulation set, the sea-surface temperature ranges from 26 to 32°C, and the Coriolis parameter f ranges from 10−5 to 10−4 s−1. The number of TCs that develop in a simulation increases rapidly with f and ranges from 1 to 18. Taken together, the simulations provide a diverse spectrum of vortices that can be used for a meaningful statistical study.Consistent with earlier studies, mature TCs with minimal asymmetry are found to have maximum wind speeds greater than the classic theoretical value derived by Emanuel under the assumptions of gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance. In a statistical sense, it is found that the degree of superintensity with respect to balance theory reliably decays with an increasing level of inner-core CA. It is verified that a more recent version of axisymmetric steady-state theory, revised to incorporate imbalance, provides a good approximation for the maximum (azimuthally averaged) azimuthal wind speed Vmax when CA is relatively weak. More notably, this theory for axisymmetric vortices maintains less than 10% error as CA becomes comparable in magnitude to the symmetric component of inner-core convection. Above a large but finite threshold of CA, axisymmetric steady-state theory generally over-predicts Vmax. The underachievement of TCs in this parameter regime is shown to coincide with substantial violation of the theoretical assumption of slantwise convective neutrality in the main updraft of the basic state. Of further interest, a reliable curve-fit is obtained for the anticorrelation between a simple measure of CA and Vmax normalised to an estimate of its balanced potential intensity that is based solely on environmental conditions and air–sea interaction parameters. Sensitivity of results to the surface-flux parameterisation of the numerical model is briefly discussed.

대류가 유도하는 중규모 흐름에 미치는 비정역학 효과

대류가 유도하는 중규모 흐름에 미치는 비정역학 효과를 조사하기 위하여 기존의 무차원화된 정역학 모형을 바탕으로 무차원화된 비정역학 모형을 개발하였다. 모형을 검증하기 위하여 정역학 방정식 계의 해석해와 비정역학성이 아주 작은 경우의 수치 실험 결과를 비교하였고, 두 결과가 거의 같음을 확인하였다. 무차원화된 비정역학 모형을 이용하여 선형 계와 비선형 계에서 대류가 유도하는 중규모 흐름에 미치는 비정역학 효과를 조사하였다. 선형 계와 비선형 계 모두에서 비정역학성 인자가 작은 경우 열원 꼭대기 위에서 연직 방향으로, 비정역학성 인자가 상대적으로 큰 경우 주 상승 기류의 풍하측에서 수평 방향으로 상승 운동과 하강 운동이 교대하는 파동 형태의 섭동장이 나타났다. 풍하측에서 나타나는 상승 운동과 하강 운동을 분석하기 위하여 선형, 정상 상태, 비점성 흐름에 대한 Taylor-Goldstein 방정식을 구하였다. 주 상승기류의 풍하측에서 교대로 나타나는 상승 하강 기류세포는 전파파의 수평 방향 전파 성분과 에바네센트파, 즉 비정역학성 인자에 의해 결정되는 임계 파장보다 파장이 짧아 연직 방향으로 전파되지 못하고 수평 방향으로만 전파되는 중력파의 중첩으로 설명할 수 있다. 선형 계에 대한 수치 실험 결과에서 나타난 상승 하강 기류 세포의 수평 방향 길이는 선형 계에 대한 방정식에서 얻은 에바네센트 파의 임계 파장 길이의 절반과 일치하였으나, 약한 비선형 계에 대한 수치 실험 결과에서 나타난 상승 하강 기류 세포의 수평 방향 길이는 선형 계에 대한 방정식에서 얻은 에바네센트 파의 임계 파장 길이의 절반보다 다소 길었다. 주 상승 기류 지역 내에서 최대 상승 기류의 위치는 비선형성과 비정역학성 정도에 따라 다르게 나타났다. Nonhydrostatic effects on convectively forced mesoscale flows in two dimensions are numerically investigated using a nondimensional model. An elevated heating that represents convective heating due to deep cumulus convection is specified in a uniform basic flow with constant stability, and numerical experiments are performed with different values of the nonlinearity factor and nonhydrostaticity factor. The simulation result in a linear system is first compared to the analytic solution. The simulated vertical velocity field is very similar to the analytic one, confirming the high accuracy of nondimensional model's solutions. When the nonhydrostaticity factor is small, alternating regions of upward and downward motion above the heating top appear. On the other hand, when the nonhydrostaticity factor is relatively large, alternating updraft and downdraft cells appear downwind of the main updraft region. These features according to the nonhydrostaticity factor appear in both linear and nonlinear flow systems. The location of the maximum vertical velocity in the main updraft region differs depending on the degrees of nonlinearity and nonhydrostaticity. Using the Taylor-Goldstein equation in a linear, steady-state, invscid system, it is analyzed that evanescent waves exist for a given nonhydrostaticity factor. The critical wavelength of an evanescent wave is given by <TEX>${\lambda}_c=2{\pi}{\beta}$</TEX>, where <TEX>${\beta}$</TEX> is the nonhydrostaticity factor. Waves whose wavelengths are smaller than the critical wavelength become evanescent. The alternating updraft and downdraft cells are formed by the superposition of evanescent waves and horizontally propagating parts of propagating waves. Simulation results show that the horizontal length of the updraft and downdraft cells is the half of the critical wavelength (<TEX>${\pi}{\beta}$</TEX>) in a linear flow system and larger than <TEX>${\pi}{\beta}$</TEX> in a weakly nonlinear flow system.

Nonlinear Effects on Convectively Forced Two-Dimensional Mesoscale Flows

Abstract One of the important problems in mesoscale atmospheric dynamics is how the atmosphere responds to convective heating or cooling. Here, the authors examine nonlinear effects on convectively forced mesoscale flows in the context of the nonlinear response of a stably stratified flow to elevated steady heating in two dimensions using a nondimensional numerical model. Results of two-dimensional numerical experiments in a uniform flow show that even without vertical wind shear, a separation of an upwind cellular updraft from the steady heating-induced main updraft occurs in a highly nonlinear flow system. This separation occurs as the compensating cellular downdraft associated with a secondary maximum in the main updraft develops. As the nonlinearity of the flow system increases, the upwind cellular updraft is separated earlier and becomes stronger. Smaller viscous terms result in the separation of more cellular updrafts, which become stronger and move farther away from the main updraft region. In particular, in an inviscid flow, cellular updrafts are periodically separated from the main updraft, and the first cellular updraft and downdraft have intensities comparable to the intensity of the main updraft. In a viscid flow with a constant vertical wind shear up to a certain height, the propagating cellular updraft and downdraft are produced when the nonlinearity is large, as in a uniform flow. Stronger vertical wind shear leads to the earlier formation of the cellular updraft and its stronger intensity, faster propagating speed, and longer lifetime. Results of numerical experiments with squall line–type forcing imply that the highly nonlinear state is necessary for the development of cellular updrafts.

Assessing Errors in Variational Dual-Doppler Wind Syntheses of Supercell Thunderstorms Observed by Storm-Scale Mobile Radars

Abstract Dual-Doppler wind retrieval is an invaluable tool in the study of convective storms. However, the nature of the errors in the retrieved three-dimensional wind estimates and subsequent dynamical analyses is not precisely known, making it difficult to assign confidence to inferred storm behavior. Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework, this study characterizes these errors for a supercell thunderstorm observed at close range by two Doppler radars. Synthetic radar observations generated from a high-resolution numerical supercell simulation are input to a three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) dual-Doppler wind retrieval technique. The sensitivity of the analyzed kinematics and dynamics to the dual-Doppler retrieval settings, hydrometeor fall speed parameterization errors, and radar cross-beam angle and scanning strategy is examined. Imposing the commonly adopted assumptions of spatially constant storm motion and intrinsically steady flow produces large errors at higher altitudes. On the other hand, reasonably accurate analyses are obtained at lower and middle levels, even when the majority of the storm lies outside the 30° dual-Doppler lobe. Low-level parcel trajectories initiated around the main updraft and rear-flank downdraft are generally qualitatively accurate, as are time series of circulation computed around material circuits. Omitting upper-level radar observations to reduce volume scan times does not substantially degrade the lower- and middle-level analyses, which implies that shallower scanning strategies should enable an improved retrieval of supercell dynamics. The results suggest that inferences about supercell behavior based on qualitative features in 3DVAR dual-Doppler and subsequent dynamical retrievals may generally be reliable.

Comparing Aerosol and Low-Level Moisture Influences on Supercell Tornadogenesis: Three-Dimensional Idealized Simulations

Abstract Four three-dimensional, nested-grid numerical simulations were performed using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) to those of low-level moisture [and thus convective available potential energy (CAPE)] on cold-pool evolution and tornadogenesis within an idealized supercell storm. The innermost grid possessed horizontal grid spacing of 111 m. The initial background profiles of CCN concentration and water vapor mixing ratio varied among the simulations (clean versus dusty and higher-moisture versus lower-moisture simulations). A fifth simulation was performed to factor out the impact of CAPE. The higher-moisture simulations produced spatially larger storms with stronger peak updrafts and low-level downdrafts, heavier precipitation, greater evaporative cooling, and stronger cold pools within the forward and rear flank downdrafts. Each simulated supercell produced a tornado-like vortex. However, the lower-moisture simulations produced stronger, longer-lived vortices, as they were associated with weaker cold pools and less negative buoyancy within the rear flank downdraft. Raindrop and hailstone concentrations (sizes) were reduced (increased) in the dusty simulations, resulting in less evaporative cooling and weaker cold pools compared to the clean simulations. With greater terminal fall speeds, the larger hydrometeors in the dusty simulations fell nearer to the storm’s core, positioning the cold pool closer to the main updraft. Tornadogenesis was related to the size, strength, and location of the cold pools produced by the forward and rear flank downdrafts. Not surprisingly, while the aerosol effect was evident, the influences of low-level moisture and CAPE had markedly larger impacts on tornadogenesis.

Polarimetric and Electrical Characteristics of a Lightning Ring in a Supercell Storm

Abstract On 30 May 2004, a supercell storm was sampled by a suite of instrumentation that had been deployed as part of the Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX). The instrumentation included the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (OK-LMA), the National Severe Storms Laboratory S-band Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) polarimetric radar at Norman, Oklahoma, and two mobile C-band, Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radars (SMART-R). Combined, datasets collected by these instruments provided a unique opportunity to investigate the possible relationships among the supercell’s kinematic, microphysical, and electrical characteristics. This study focuses on the evolution of a ring of lightning activity that formed near the main updraft at approximately 0012 UTC, matured near 0039 UTC, and collapsed near 0050 UTC. During this time period, an F2-intensity tornado occurred near the lightning-ring region. Lightning density contours computed over 1-km layers are overlaid on polarimetric and dual-Doppler data to assess the low- and midlevel kinematic and microphysical characteristics within the lightning-ring region. Results indicate that the lightning ring begins in the middle and upper levels of the precipitation-cascade region, which is characterized by inferred graupel. The second time period shows that the lightning source densities take on a horizontal u-shaped pattern that is collocated with midlevel differential reflectivity and correlation coefficient rings and with the strong cyclonic vertical vorticity noted in the dual-Doppler data. The final time period shows dissipation of the u-shaped pattern and the polarimetric signatures as well as an increase in the lightning activity at the lower levels associated with the development of the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) and the envelopment of the vertical vorticity maximum by the RFD.

The Impact of Spatial Variations of Low-Level Stability on the Life Cycle of a Simulated Supercell Storm

Abstract This study reports on the dynamical evolution of simulated, long-lived right-moving supercell storms in a high-CAPE, strongly sheared mesoscale environment, which initiate in a weakly capped region and subsequently move into a cold boundary layer (BL) and inversion region before dissipating. The storm simulations realistically approximate the main morphological features and evolution of the 22 May 1981 Binger, Oklahoma, supercell storm by employing time-varying inflow lateral boundary conditions for the storm-relative moving grid, which in turn are prescribed from a parent, fixed steady-state mesoscale analysis to approximate the observed inversion region to the east of the dryline on that day. A series of full life cycle storm simulations have been performed in which the magnitude of boundary layer coldness and the convective inhibition are varied to examine the ability of the storm to regenerate and sustain its main updraft as it moves into environments with increasing convective stability. The analysis of the simulations employs an empirical expression for the theoretical speed of the right-forward-flank outflow boundary relative to the ambient, low-level storm inflow that is consistent with simulated cold-pool boundary movement. The theoretical outflow boundary speed in the direction opposite to the ambient flow increases with an increasing cold-pool temperature deficit relative to the ambient BL temperature, and it decreases as ambient wind speed increases. The right-moving, classic (CL) phase of the simulated supercells is supported by increasing precipitation content and a stronger cold pool, which increases the right-moving cold-pool boundary speed against the constant ambient BL winds. The subsequent decrease of the ambient BL temperature with eastward storm movement decreases the cold-pool temperature deficit and reduces the outflow boundary speed against the ambient winds, progressing through a state of stagnation to an ultimate retrogression of the outflow boundary in the direction of the ambient flow. Onset of a transient, left-moving low-precipitation (LP) phase is initiated as the storm redevelops on the retrograding outflow boundary. The left-moving LP storm induces compensating downward motions in the inversion layer that desiccates the inflow, elevates the cloudy updraft parcel level of free convection (LFC), and leads to the final storm decay. The results demonstrate that inversion-region simulations support isolated, long-lived supercells. Both the degree of stratification and the coldness of the ambient BL regulate the cold-pool intensity and the strength and capacity of the outflow boundary to lift BL air through the LFC and thus regenerate convection, resulting in variation of supercell duration in the inversion region of approximately 1–2 h. In contrast, horizontally homogeneous conditions lacking an inversion region result in the development of secondary convection from the initial isolated supercell, followed by rapid upscale growth after 3 h to form a long-lived mesoscale convective system.

An inadvertent transport of the seeding material as a result of cloud modification

Successful seeding of clouds in weather modification experiments essentially depends on the seeding time and dynamics, amount of seeding material and location of the initial seeding area. In the present study, we focus on the influence of the initial seeding zone location on the transport of seeding agent material into the target cloud. In addition, the inadvertent transport of seeding material is analysed. During weather modification activities, a lot of seeding material can be transferred far from the seeding zone in a downwind direction. The primary motivation for this research was to prove this statement. We use a three-dimensional, mesoscale cloud-resolving model to achieve our goal. We performed sensitivity tests with respect to the distance between the mass centres of the initial seeding area and the cloud. Different seeding scenarios are analysed. Our principal findings are as follows: (1) For distances between the mass centres of the initial seeding area and the cloud below 2.5 km, all seeding agent material would be activated after a short time. For distances above 10 km, most of the seeding agent would remain inactivated, because horizontal transport of the seeding agent becomes more important than transport induced by the main updraft. For these scenarios, the seeding agent is injected in the cold peripheral part of the cloud. (2) Sensitivity tests show that the inactivated seeding agent would remain close to the seeding area if the seeding is performed below cloud base. This effect occurs even for large distances between the seeding area and the target cloud (>20 km) due to low-level convergence. Thus, this seeding method suppresses the inert seeding material from being transferred far from the seeding zone. (3) The complete seeding material stays inactivated if the seeding is performed between the −8 and −12°C isotherms in front of the increased reflectivity zone. As a consequence, it would be transferred far from its initial area. The cloud would not be able to capture the seeding agent even during its greatest lateral extent.

Numerical simulation on the evolution of cloud particles in 3-D convective cloud

A 3-D convective cloud model with compressible non-hydrostatic dynamics and the spectral bin microphysics of a 2-D slab-symmetric model has been used to simulate an observed supercell storm occurring on 29 June, 2000 near Bird City, Kansas, USA. The main objective of this paper is to study the evolution of particles in this convective storm with bin spectral microphysics scheme. Graupels form and grow through two mechanisms, deposition and riming, with the riming process dominant on top of the inflow and in the upper portion of main updraft. Over the outflow and during the developing and mature stages of the storm, graupel particles mainly grow through deposition with dominant unimodal spectra. Most fall out after growing up. Reducing initial relative humidity disturbance (increasing initial potential temperature disturbance) has negative impact on the formation and growth of graupels over the inflow (outflow). This study shows that large graupel and hail could be suppressed by altering the deposition and coalescence process over the inflow and main updraft. At different locations of the convective cells and with different initial humidity and potential temperature disturbance, the graupel formation and growth mechanisms are different, so as to the feasible hail suppression locations and methods.

Theoretical Studies of Convectively Forced Mesoscale Flows in Three Dimensions. Part I: Uniform Basic-State Flow

Abstract Convectively forced mesoscale flows in three dimensions are theoretically investigated by examining the transient response of a stably stratified atmosphere to convective heating. Solutions for the equations governing small-amplitude perturbations in a uniform basic-state wind with specified convective heating are analytically obtained using the Green function method. In the surface pulse heating case, it is explicitly shown that the vertical displacement at the center of the 3D steady heating decreases as fast as t−1 for large t. Hence, unlike in two dimensions, the steady state is approached in three dimensions. In the finite-depth steady heating case, the perturbation vertical velocity field in the stationary mode shows a main updraft region extending over the heating layer and V-shaped upward and downward motions above and below the heating layer. Including the third dimension results in a stronger updraft at an early stage, a weaker compensating downward motion, and a weaker stationary gravity wave field in a quasi-steady state than in the case of two dimensions. An examination of flow response fields for various vertical structures of convective heating indicates that stationary gravity waves above the main updraft region become strong in intensity as the height of the maximum convective heating increases. In response to the transient heating, a main updraft region extending over the heating layer no longer appears at a dissipation stage of deep convection. Instead, alternating regions of upward and downward motion with an upstream phase tilt appear.