Abstract River eutrophication risk increased significantly in agricultural areas. In this paper, spatial variability of soil phosphorus (P) and loss risk in the Jialu River Basin, China, were analyzed using a geostatistical approach. The correlation between soil and river sediment P was analyzed to identify the main aquatic P source. The results showed that inorganic phosphorus (IP) was the main form of soil TP (82.13%), but the ratio of apatite phosphorus (AP) and non-apatite phosphorus (NAIP) varied between different soil types. AP was the primary form of IP in fluvo-aquic cinnamon soil, while NAIP dominated in meadow aeolian sandy soil. Calculated soil total dissolvable P (TDP, 94–622 mg/kg) exceeded the environmental threshold. High TDP (>400 mg/kg) in mixed soil and sandy soil indicated a high P loss risk. The spatial variability of soil P was moderate to weak, indicating a low heterogeneity. In sediment, IP and AP showed a significant correlation with total organic carbon (p < 0.05), indicating a P source of soil erosion. Sediment AP had a significant positive correlation with soil AP (p < 0.05), confirming soil as the main source of sediment P. Furthermore, an accumulation of sediment P along the Jialu River and its consistency with water TP was revealed.
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