Main Grain-producing Areas Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Service Supply–Demand Contradictions Under Urbanization

Clarifying the driving mechanisms of ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand under urbanization is of significant importance for urban ecological planning and management. However, how the balance of ES supply and demand and its driving mechanisms vary with the degree of urbanization has been little studied. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal changes and the correlations between ES supply and demand and the degree of urbanization in the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area (ZZMA) from 2000 to 2020 and further explored the driving mechanisms behind these changes. The results showed that, (1) between 2000 and 2020, the ZZMA experienced a deficit in comprehensive ES supply and demand, and regions with rapid urbanization development were more likely to trigger imbalances in ES supply and demand; (2) the spatial mismatch between low–high ES supply and demand was primarily distributed in the built-up areas of various cities, while the high–low spatial mismatch was mostly found in forest and grassland areas; (3) the comprehensive urbanization level of the ZZMA was spatially negatively correlated with the ratio of ES supply and demand. Regions with lower ES balance were more susceptible to disturbances caused by urbanization; (4) population density was the key factor influencing the supply and demand of carbon sequestration, oxygen release, water conservation, and food provision services, while the proportions of forest land and construction areas had the greatest influence on the supply and demand of air purification and leisure services. It is important to ensure the ecological status of the northwestern, southwestern, and central mountainous and forested areas; maintain the agricultural status of the main grain-producing areas in the eastern plains; strengthen ecological restoration and green infrastructure in built-up areas; and formulate differentiated management policies to promote the sustainable supply of ES and safeguard the ecological security of the region.

How Does High-Standard Farmland Construction Affect Agroecological Efficiency—From the Perspective of Factor Endowment

Based on the factor endowment theory and the agriculture-induced technological innovation theory, this study examines the impact of high-standard farmland construction (HFC) on agricultural ecological efficiency (AEE) and sustainable agricultural development. Using empirical data from 30 provinces in China between 2005 and 2022, it explores how high-standard farmland construction techniques can enhance AEE, considering factor endowment preferences and geographical characteristics. Empirical research indicates that high-standard farmland significantly enhances AEE, particularly in the eastern region, the main grain-producing areas, and the regions with less geographical fluctuation. Additionally, agricultural innovations, capital accumulation, and land circulation reinforce the benefits of such construction, whereas labor mobility has a moderating effect. Quantile regression analyses show that the impact of HFC on AEE initially increases and then diminishes, potentially due to inadequate post-management and maintenance. Consequently, the study recommends that the government enhance policy support and supervision for high-standard farmland projects, integrate agricultural technology with capital accumulation, optimize human resource allocation, guide labor mobility, and reform land transfer systems to boost AEE and sustainability.

Adapting Seasonal Rice Cultivation Strategies for Food Security in Response to Climate Change Impacts

An in-depth examination of the effects of climate change on rice yield in China, encompassing various rice types, is crucial for ensuring the nation’s food security. This study develops an “economy-climate” theoretical model and employs Panel Corrected Standard Error Estimation (PCSE) on panel data spanning from 1978 to 2018, sourced from China’s primary grain-producing regions. The analysis delves into the impact of climate variables, including precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration, on overall rice production and different rice types. Overall, the findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration, and rice yield, characterized by an “inverted U-shaped” pattern. However, significant variations exist in the effects on different rice types across China’s main grain-producing areas. Increasing precipitation generally enhances early rice production across provinces and also augments mid-season and one-season-late rice production in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hebei, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Shandong Province. Conversely, it reduces mid-season and one-season-late rice output in Liaoning, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. Sichuan Province sees a rise in temperature favoring early and double-season-late rice production, unlike other provinces. For mid-season and one-season-late rice, temperature increases benefit output in Heilongjiang Province but not in other regions. Additionally, prolonged sunshine duration boosts early and double-season-late rice production across all provinces but does not have the same effect on mid-season and one-season-late rice in China’s primary grain-producing areas.

The Spatiotemporal Correlation between Human Activity Intensity and the Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value in the Songnen Plain, China

For the main grain-producing areas worldwide that balance multi-tasks of grain production, ecological protection, and economic development, quantitatively revealing the correlation between human activity intensity (HAI) and ecosystem service value (ESV) is conducive to formulating adapted ecological protection policies and promoting the coordinated development of the regional economy, society, and ecosystem. In this paper, we took the Songnen Plain of China as an example, employed a modified Equivalent Factor Method (integrating socio-economic data, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land use data), and the HAI Assessment Model (based on the data of land use, night-time light, and population spatial distribution) to measure the ESV and HAI in the Songnen Plain of China for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. We further applied the standard deviational ellipse method, the coupled coordination degree model, and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation models to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics and correlation characteristics of ESV and HAI. The results showed the following: (1) Temporally, the ESV declined from 950.96 billion yuan in 1990 to 836.31 billion yuan in 2015, and then increased to 864.60 billion yuan in 2020, with the total loss attributed to the significant decline in the ESV of the natural ecosystem. Spatially, the ESV in the western and northeastern regions was relatively high, with a significant increase in the northeast. (2) HAI showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2020, while the high HAI levels gradually shrank after reaching the peak in 2000. Low HAI levels were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest, aligning with the ecological space, while high HAI levels were distributed in the middle and southeast. (3) The interaction between ESV and HAI was marked by a negative correlation, transitioning from conflict to coordination. The spatial pattern of HAI and ESV showed H (HAI)-L (ESV) and L-H clustering, with H-H and L-L scattered distributions. This study contributes to providing a framework, methods, and suggestions for the sustainable planning and utilization of land and ecological protection in order to offer scientific references for the Songnen Plain, other major grain-producing areas, and related studies.

Residents’ future residential preference and its affecting factors in the rapid urbanization zone of rural China from a family life cycle perspective

Understanding farmers’ future residential preferences and the factors affecting these choices is crucial for tackling the issues related to hollow village management and rural planning. Despite limited research on the role of the family life cycle, this study explores how the family life cycle, characteristics of the household head, livelihood strategies, and resource availability shape farmers’ future residential preferences. Data were collected from 777 households in China’s main grain-producing area. The findings reveal that 52.90% of households prefer to stay in their current rural residences. Other favored options are elderly care facilities (13.90%), living with children in the village (12.36%), and ancestral homes (11.68%). The family life cycle significantly affects these preferences (p < 0.01), with changes in family structure and age leading to different living choices. Specifically, households in the initial (71.29%), burden (70.32%), and stable stages (40.14%) prefer their current rural residences, while those in the maintenance and empty-nest stages opt for living with their children’s residences (22.22% and 16.96%, respectively) or in elderly care facilities (30.00% and 33.93%). Meanwhile, age, health, income, livelihood strategies, and land ownership also markedly influence the choice of residence. Recommendations include educational programs for elderly rural residents, improving older individuals’ adaptability to rural changes, creating more rural employment opportunities, and enhancing medical and infrastructural services for the sustainable rural development.

How can continuous land transfers guarantee food security? A study from the perspectives of plot size

ABSTRACT Continuous land transfer is an important direction for future agricultural policy in developing countries. However, there is little research on the impacts of land contiguity in China. Based on 2020 national micro-survey data, this paper analyzes the different focuses of land contiguity, divides contiguous transfers into connected and patchy transfers, and explores the differential impacts of the two on food production. The paper further explores how heterogeneous plot sizes play a role in it. The results are as follows: (1) connected transfer has a greater effect than patchy transfer; (2) contiguous transfers can secure food production by contributing to an increase in plot size, with continuous transfers contributing more to the maximum plot size; (3) maximum plot size has a positive effect on promoting food production; (4) continuous transfer performed better in terms of yield increase in non-plain and main grain-producing areas; and, (5) the ‘inverted U-shape’ impacts of patchy transfers on food production are evident. Therefore, the government should fully promote continuous land transfer while focusing on connected transfer, which should expand maximum plot size as much as possible. After continuous transfer, it should also be wary of the ‘non-food’ phenomenon in the plains.

The Impact of Agricultural Socialized Service on Grain Production: Evidence from Rural China

Although China’s grain production has reached nineteen consecutive harvests, the uncertainty of the current domestic and international environment has put more pressure on further increasing grain production in the future. For the past few years, agricultural socialization services have been crucial in boosting grain production and farmers’ revenue by addressing the issue of land cultivation and farming methods. In this regard, the question of whether and how agricultural socialized services may resolve the present grain production conundrum is extremely practical. Therefore, the study employs the China Rural Revitalization Survey data of 3709 households. Based on the 2SLS model, stepwise regression method, and moderated effects model, it creatively takes into account a variety of agricultural production segments, investigates the mechanism of services on grain production from the standpoint of improved production efficiency and plot concentration, and further examines the effects of aging populations and regional variations in grain production areas. The study found the following: (1) The average proportion of grain production area of farmers in the sample is 49%, and 42% of farmers have purchased agricultural socialization services. (2) Agricultural socialization services can significantly promote farmers’ grain cultivation behavior by facilitating connected transfers in and inhibiting connected transfers out to take advantage of plot concentration, and boosting the use of agricultural machines to enhance output efficiency. (3) The aging of the agricultural population will, to a certain extent, strengthen the promoting effect of agricultural socialization services on grain cultivation. Agricultural socialization services affect grain cultivation more in main grain-producing areas. Therefore, emphasizing the role of agricultural socialization services in accelerating the shift to moderate-scale operations, decreasing the non-grain component of the planting structure, and promoting the implementation of policies tailored to actual production needs are important steps to safeguard the production capacity of grain in different regions.

Little Brands, Big Profits? Effect of Agricultural Geographical Indicators on County-Level Economic Development in China

AGIs (agricultural geographical indicators) are effective quality signals that can improve market welfare, but few studies have investigated the impact of AGIs on economic development. To fill this gap, this paper explores the impact of AGIs on per capita GDP and its mechanisms, according to country-level data in China from 2000 to 2018. For every additional AGI in the country, GDP per capita increased by 0.2–0.4%. Our conclusion remained reliable after various robustness tests. These effects were more salient in western areas, the main grain-producing areas, and settled areas. AGIs related to aquatic environments, animal husbandry, and planting products promoted economic development most significantly. For these effects, encouraging an increase in agricultural value (improving the quantity and quality of products) and promoting the agglomeration of populations, capital, and enterprises in the agricultural sector were the main mechanisms.

Analysis of the interactive effects of new urbanization and agricultural carbon emission efficiency

&lt;p&gt;Exploring the relationship between new urbanization and agricultural carbon emission is of great significance to promote the green and low-carbon development of agriculture. The urbanization level was comprehensively assessed by constructing an index system, and the agricultural carbon emission efficiency was measured using the SBM model, and finally, the relationship between urbanization and agricultural carbon emission efficiency was quantitatively analyzed with the help of the PVAR model. The results of the study show that：(1) From a general point of view, new urbanization is the Granger cause of agricultural carbon emission efficiency, and new urbanization has a reverse effect on the improvement of agricultural carbon emission efficiency, while the opposite is not true. (2) Agricultural urbanization is always the Granger cause of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in both main grain-producing and non-main grain-producing areas, but the inhibitory effect of new urbanization on the improvement of agricultural carbon emission efficiency is significantly stronger in main grain-producing areas.&lt;/p&gt;

Assessment of health risks posed by toxicological elements of the food chain in a typical high geologic background

Enrichment of toxicological elements in soils of high geologic background has a significant effect on toxicity. The aim of this study was to assess the health risks associated with the transfer of toxicological elements in the food chain in a typical high geologic background. We systematically collected data on rocks, soils and food crops belonging to a typical black rock system geological body and at the same time belonging to the main grain-producing areas in Hunan Province, and analyzed the exposure and health threat of toxicological elements Cr, Cd, Pb, Hg, As and Se in cucumber, rape, soybean, peanut and ginger. Based on the JISEVM method to establish the spatial contamination constitutive relationship between rock-soil-food, we deduced the conclusions from the bioconcentration factor (BCF), integrated crop contamination index (P) and hazard index (HI). Our results showed that Cr, Cd, Pb, Hg, and Se were exceeded in agricultural soils, with Hg and Se levels severely exceeding the standard Se was most bioconcentrated in soybean (BCF = 0.5855), followed by Cd (BCF = 0.5603) and Se (BCF = 0.3800) in peanut and Se (BCF = 0.4255) in rape, and the BCFs of all the BCF of crops were less than 1, and the enrichment of these six elements in the food chain did not reach a dangerous level; the overall spatial distribution of radioactive contamination was centered on the black rocky geologic body; and the contamination and absorption levels of foods in the study area were: leafy vegetables (oilseed rape) > legumes (soybeans and peanuts) > stem vegetables (ginger) > fruit vegetables (cucumber). The intake of Cd and Se through consumption of oilseed rape was the most important source of health risk among foods in the study area. This study, since it can fill the gap in risk assessment due to endogenous factors in a high geologic background, can also guide studies in other specialized contexts or in a multi-media background.

Analysis of Dynamic Evolution and Driving Factors of Low-Carbon Utilization Efficiency of Cultivated Land in China

In order to cope with global climate warming, measurement of the low-carbon utilization efficiency (LCUE) of cultivated land, considering carbon sink and carbon emission effects, is proposed. To address this, based on the data of 30 provinces in China, this study conducts a LCUE evaluation system by the MinDS-U-M productivity index model in order to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of LCUE with the geographic detector model and GTWR model. The results show the following: (1) Over the past 20 years, the average LCUE value exhibits a slow increasing trend from 2001 to 2021, which ranges from 0.9864 to 1.0272. Provinces with mid-level LCUE ranging from 1.0000 to 1.0990 account for the highest proportion in each period. (2) The annual growth rate of LCUE in the central region is the highest, where the promotion of green technology and farmland protection policies have played important roles. (3) According to the Geodetector analysis, urbanization rate (UR), irrigation index (IR), grain output value (GOV), precipitation (PR), arable land area (ALA), and environmental pollution control (EPC) are important drivers of the spatial difference of LCUE. (4) The GTWR model shows that the positive effects of ALA and SRT have always been concentrated in the main grain-producing areas over time. UR and PR have strong explanatory power for the space/time differentiation of LCUE, especially in eastern coastal regions. IR has an increasing effect on LCUE in the Western region, and the positive effect of EPC on the LCUE is concentrated in the central region. In order to coordinate regional LCUE contradictions, it is suggested to be wary of land resource damage caused by economic development, warn about the impacts of climate change, and strengthen the supervision of land remediation projects in order to achieve sustainable land management.

Mapping sustainability-oriented China’s cropland use stability

Shifting to more sustainable use can curb cropland resource degradation and improve production resilience. However, most cropland use assessments are unilaterally focused on biophysical levels and productivity, ignoring the multi-dimensional aspects of degraded cropland. This study attempts to describe cropland use stability in China by proposing a multi-dimensional assessment framework (including quantity, quality, management, service, and risk) to provide a reference for designing land degradation-neutral strategies. Results show that multi-dimensional cropland use characteristics present significant spatial heterogeneity. Western regions are reserve resource agglomerations that can replenish cropland quantity. In contrast, main grain-producing areas cover most current resources with preferably cultivation quality, management efficiency, and ecosystem services, while risk resistance is weak (especially in Middle-lower Yangtze Plain). Generally, the stability of cropland use in Northeast Plain is the highest and in Loess Plateau the lowest. Besides, urbanization will occupy about 9.31% of the high-stability cropland in 2030, of which 70.29% will occur in Northeast Plain and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The total potential productivity loss in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain alone will reach 100.1 kt, equivalent to supplying the food demand of 199,200 people annually. Therefore, a sustainable-oriented refined cropland management strategy should be designed according to the hierarchical nested spatial layout of comprehensive planning-stability map-multi-dimensional utilization characteristics to ensure the loss-replenishment balance and stable production.

Impacts of chemical fertilizer reduction on grain yield: A case study of China.

Reducing fertilizer usage is a crucial measure for achieving high-quality development in Chinese agriculture. Utilizing panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning from 2004 to 2019, this study empirically analyzes the dynamic relationship between fertilizer application and grain production, exploring the underlying mechanisms. The study findings reveal that the application of fertilizers maintains a positive impact on grain production. The two variables will demonstrate a dynamic alternation between "strong decoupling" and "retreat decoupling," suggesting that grain production may either increase or gradually decline, while fertilizer application exhibits a decreasing trend. Mechanism analysis reveals a distinct substitution relationship between fertilizer use efficiency and application quantity. Increasing fertilizer use efficiency while reducing application quantity still facilitates the stable and increased production of grains. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the efficiency of fertilizer use has a more pronounced impact on grain yield in the eastern and western regions. Increasing fertilizer quantity is detrimental to wheat yield but has a promoting effect on corn yield. However, in the main grain-producing areas, increasing fertilizer quantity can enhance wheat yield but is unfavorable for the overall grain yield. Additionally, nitrogen fertilizer input has exceeded the optimal level compared to potassium fertilizer. Continuously increasing nitrogen fertilizer input will hinder the increase in grain yield. Therefore, there is a need to shift from the notion of "more fertilizer is better" and focus on improving fertilizer use efficiency to transition from the emphasis on "quantity" to "quality" of fertilizer application.

Assessment of the Effect of the Main Grain-Producing Areas Policy on China's Food Security.

Food provided a material foundation for the development of human society and was an important cornerstone for ensuring national security. The Chinese government has always attached great importance to food security, which is not only related to economic development and social stability but also to national security and self-reliance. As the core region for grain production and the supply of staple food in China, the major grain-producing areas account for 78.25% of the total national grain output, truly earning the title of China's "granary". Considering the establishment of 13 major grain-producing regions across the country in 2004 as a quasi-natural experiment, the impact of policies in major grain-producing regions on ensuring national food security is examined using a difference-in-differences method based on inter-provincial panel data for 30 provinces across the country from 1997 to 2020, and the mechanisms of their effects are further analyzed. The findings show that (1) the main producing-areas policy has a significant driving effect on China's food security, with an average annual increase of 0.0351 units in the food-security index, and the impact is expanding year by year. (2) The policy of the main grain-producing provinces mainly plays a role in guaranteeing food security by expanding the scale of grain cultivation and the scale of family land management in the main grain-producing provinces, and the scale effect of grain cultivation has a more significant impact. Further adjusting and improving the policy of the main grain-producing areas and expanding the scale-driven effect of this policy are of great significance for transforming agricultural production methods and realizing a strong agricultural country.

The Impacts and Spatial Characteristics of High-Standard Farmland Construction on Agricultural Carbon Productivity

Agricultural carbon productivity combines the dual attributes of reducing carbon emissions and stabilizing economic growth, and is a core aspect of the new era of low-carbon agricultural development. The construction of high-standard farmland is an important initiative to promote high-yield and high-efficiency agriculture, as well as environmentally sustainable development through land improvement in China. However, the impact of high-standard farmland construction on agricultural carbon productivity and its mechanisms is still in the process of being determined. In order to fill this gap, this study aims to construct a theoretical, analytical framework for the impact of high-standard farmland construction on agricultural carbon productivity. Based on the current situation of high-standard farmland construction and the characteristics of agricultural carbon productivity in China, this study used the panel data of 31 provinces, from 2003 to 2017 in China, to empirically examine the effects, mediating paths, and spatial characteristics of the construction of high-standard farmland on agricultural carbon productivity using a double fixed-effects regression model, a mediating-effects model, and a spatial econometric model. The results show that: (1) High-standard farmland construction has a positive effect on agricultural carbon productivity, with a direct effect coefficient of 0.139 after adding a series of control variables. (2) Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of high-standard farmland construction on agricultural carbon productivity will vary greatly depending on the topographic characteristics of the studied area, the level of economic development, and whether it is a main grain-producing area. (3) Mechanism analysis shows that agricultural scale operation, agricultural planting structure, and agricultural technology progress all have partial mediating roles in the impact of high-standard farmland construction on agricultural carbon productivity, with mediating effect coefficients of 0.025, 0.024, and 0.013, respectively. (4) Agricultural carbon productivity has a spatial correlation, and for every 1% increase in the level of high-standard farmland construction, agricultural carbon productivity increases by 0.117%, with a direct effect of 0.074% and a spatial spillover effect of 0.043%. Our study explains the impact effects, mechanisms, and spatial spillover effects of high-standard farmland construction on agricultural carbon productivity from theoretical and empirical perspectives, thus deepening the literature on the relationship between high-standard farmland construction and agricultural carbon productivity, and providing a theoretical basis and practical references for improving agricultural carbon productivity from the perspective of high-standard farmland construction policy.

Assessing the impact of China's agricultural subsidy reform on fertilizer management: a county-level empirical analysis based on difference-in-difference model

Agricultural subsidies are widely acknowledged to be a crucial cause in food security and environmental protection, with a substantial impact on fertilizer consumption. China is also attempting to promote the green transformation of agricultural subsidies and sustainable food production. Existing research has explored the impact of China's agricultural subsidies reform (ASR) on farmers' fertilizer application behavior at household level, but little is known about the overall effect of ASR at the regional level. This paper investigates the effect of on fertilizer inputs using the staggered difference-in-difference (DID) approach, based on county-level panel data for 723 counties in China's Main Grain Producing Area (MPA) from 2013 to 2020. The results show that the ASR obviously increases fertilizer consumption by 5–6% in MPA during the study period. An analysis of mechanism reveals that ASR boosts fertilizer input through increased grain output and on-farm employment, which both play a 13.83% and 6.42% partial mediator role. Conversely, the growth of planting scale is the primary conduit for fertilizer reduction, accounting for 11.78% of the total. Furthermore, this positive effect is significantly lower in counties with low farmer disposable income or high agricultural mechanization than in others. These findings offer valuable insights for other developing countries aiming to promote green transformation of agriculture.

Spatiotemporal Distribution and Fragmentation Driving Mechanism in Paddy Fields and Dryland of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

The spatial-temporal distribution pattern of China’s cultivated land has changed dramatically from 1990 to 2020, and the problem of cultivated land fragmentation has become more prominent. However, the existing research lacks a focus on the two specific land use types, paddy fields and dryland. In this study, the spatiotemporal distribution pattern and the fragmentation driving mechanism of paddy field and dryland during the years 1990 to 2020 were identified by using the center of gravity center migration model, standard deviation ellipse, and land-use dynamic model for the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as an example. The results show that there are significant differences in the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of paddy field and dryland in the MRYRUA. Among the provinces and cities, Hubei province and its Xiangyang city showed the most obvious trend of change. The loss and gain of paddy fields and dryland is related to economic and policy contexts in each period. The main driving factor of paddy field and dryland fragmentation is natural condition, whereas a relatively important factor is the per capita disposable income of rural residents. The effects of each factor on paddy field and dryland fragmentation were not independent; any two factor interactions had a stronger effect on paddy field and dryland fragmentation than a single factor. In general, this study provides guidance and references for the main grain-producing areas undergoing rapid urbanization relating to cultivated land conservation, food security, and sustainable agricultural utilization.

Towards Low-Carbon Agricultural Production: Evidence from China's Main Grain-Producing Areas

Low-carbon agricultural development is inseparable from the support of green finance. This study utilizes the GDIM model and the ARDL method to examine several key drivers of agricultural carbon emissions in China's main grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2020. The objective is to offer a valuable policy framework for green finance in promoting low-carbon agricultural production. The results indicated that despite being a driving factor in agricultural carbon emissions, the effect of the chemical fertilizer input shifted from rising to falling, and an agriculture-based CO2 EKC was confirmed. Moreover, from the perspective of the causal links between agricultural carbon emissions and their drivers, this study found that chemical fertilizer input had both long- and short-term driving effects, agricultural mechanical application had a long-term inhibiting effect, and the aging of the agricultural labor force had a short-term driving effect. The findings of this paper will help policymakers develop green financial resources to guide capital towards low-carbon agricultural production.

Resilience of agricultural development in China's major grain-producing areas under the double security goals of "grain ecology".

The development of agriculture faces uncertainties due to global climate variability and the scarcity of agricultural resources. Enhancing agricultural development resilience is essential for improving agriculture's adaptability to the external environment and ensuring food security. It is imperative to prevent and control agricultural pollution as it worsens. Thus, enhancing the resilience of agricultural development requires balancing food security and ecological security. The present study constructs an evaluation system for agricultural development resilience in China with three levels: resistance, resilience, and reengineering ability. The agricultural development resilience of China's main grain-producing areas is evaluated using the entropy method, and regional differences are analyzed using kernel density estimation and the Theil index. The obstacle model was used to identify and analyze the obstacles that affect agricultural development's resilience to propose countermeasures. The results showed that (1) agricultural development resilience in China's main grain-producing areas has steadily increased from 0.317 to 0.427. The resilience of agrarian development in Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Henan provinces ranges from 0.473 to 0.575, which is far higher than the mean development level; (2) Regional differences in the main grain-producing areas are narrowing from 0.077 to 0.023; (3) The main grain-producing areas share common obstacle factors, emphasizing the critical role of technological innovation, investment, and machine-cultivated land resources in enhancing agricultural resilience against external risks. Paying attention to the amount of fertilizer usage is crucial to achieving ecological security goals.

Coupling coordination analysis of population, economy and grain in major grain-producing counties

This study discusses the coupling and coordination relationship among population, economy, and grain production in the central primary grain-producing counties. It aims to find a dynamic balance between the responsibility of the grain-producing areas in ensuring food security and the development of the economy and population. This study focuses on the main grain-producing provinces of Jilin and Jiangsu in China. Based on county-level data on population, economy, and grain production, it constructs an index system for the population, economy, and grain systems. The study employs the entropy weighting method and coupling coordination model to analyze the coupling coordination degree and coordinated development of the three systems in Jilin and Jiangsu provinces from 2000 to 2020, covering a span of 21 years. The coupling coordination degree and coordinated development of the three systems in the main grain-producing areas have gradually moved towards high-quality coordination. In the economically underdeveloped province of Jilin, factors such as geographical environment, population size, and industrial structure impose constraints on system coordination. In the economically developed region of Jiangsu, there is a high labour force and better development of the secondary and tertiary industries, but relatively less investment in agriculture, which affects overall coordination. It is necessary to promote regions’ development with high-quality coordination by leveraging their advantages in economic foundations, and further advance the construction of the main grain-producing areas. Additionally, efforts should be made to strengthen policy support for underdeveloped regions, clearly define the industrial types and positioning of counties, and focus on industrial transformation and upgrading.