Analysis of Dynamic Evolution and Driving Factors of Low-Carbon Utilization Efficiency of Cultivated Land in China

Abstract

In order to cope with global climate warming, measurement of the low-carbon utilization efficiency (LCUE) of cultivated land, considering carbon sink and carbon emission effects, is proposed. To address this, based on the data of 30 provinces in China, this study conducts a LCUE evaluation system by the MinDS-U-M productivity index model in order to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of LCUE with the geographic detector model and GTWR model. The results show the following: (1) Over the past 20 years, the average LCUE value exhibits a slow increasing trend from 2001 to 2021, which ranges from 0.9864 to 1.0272. Provinces with mid-level LCUE ranging from 1.0000 to 1.0990 account for the highest proportion in each period. (2) The annual growth rate of LCUE in the central region is the highest, where the promotion of green technology and farmland protection policies have played important roles. (3) According to the Geodetector analysis, urbanization rate (UR), irrigation index (IR), grain output value (GOV), precipitation (PR), arable land area (ALA), and environmental pollution control (EPC) are important drivers of the spatial difference of LCUE. (4) The GTWR model shows that the positive effects of ALA and SRT have always been concentrated in the main grain-producing areas over time. UR and PR have strong explanatory power for the space/time differentiation of LCUE, especially in eastern coastal regions. IR has an increasing effect on LCUE in the Western region, and the positive effect of EPC on the LCUE is concentrated in the central region. In order to coordinate regional LCUE contradictions, it is suggested to be wary of land resource damage caused by economic development, warn about the impacts of climate change, and strengthen the supervision of land remediation projects in order to achieve sustainable land management.