Seismic Magnitude Research Articles

Role of critical stress in quantifying the magnitude of fluid-injection triggered earthquakes

Here we define and report the relationship between the maximum seismic magnitude (M) and injection volume (ΔV) through fluid-injection fault-reactivation experiments and analysis. This relationship incorporates the in situ shear modulus (G) and fault pre-stress as a fraction of the strength drop (c), expressed as M = c/(1-c) GΔV. Injection response defines a sigmoidal relation in M−ΔV\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$M-\\Delta {V}$$\\end{document} space with unit gradient limbs linked by an intermediate up-step. Both laboratory observations and analysis for a rigid fault with slip limited to the zone of pressurization show trajectories of cumulative M−ΔV\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$M-\\Delta {V}$$\\end{document} that evolve at a gradient of unity, are offset in order of increasing pre-stress and are capable of step changes in moment with shear reactivation at elevated critical-stresses – key features apparent in field observations. The model and confirmatory laboratory observations explain the occurrence of some triggered earthquakes at EGS sites significantly larger than expected relative to injection volumes and based on previous models.

Application of Lai and Juang Methods for Liquefaction Probability Analysis in Petobo, Palu

Liquefaction is a phenomenon where the soil loses its strength and rigidity, rendering it unable to support structures, often triggered by seismic activity. In Petobo, Palu City, a 7,4 magnitude earthquake caused significant subsidence and casualties, underscoring the area's susceptibility to liquefaction. This study investigates the liquefaction potential in Petobo using N-SPT data and evaluates the probability of liquefaction based on Factor of Safety (FS) values. The analysis employs probabilistic methods by Lai et al. (2006) and Juang et al. (2008), using an empirical approach based on FS. Results from six test points (LP-1 to LP-6) reveal that liquefaction potential exists at LP-2, LP-4, and LP-5, with varying risks influenced by the earthquake's magnitude. LP-5 demonstrates a high liquefaction potential, with a Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) between 4 and 15 across different seismic magnitudes. Additionally, LP-5 shows a high probability of liquefaction, with the Lai method indicating "Almost Certainly Liquefied" at 0,99, while the Juang method suggests "Not Likely to Liquefy" at 0,32. The findings highlight that higher earthquake magnitudes significantly increase LPI values and liquefaction probabilities, emphasizing the importance of seismic considerations in the region.

Design response spectrum based on shock-waveform decomposition method

This study applies the shock-waveform (SW) decomposition method, originally developed for mechanical shock analysis, to earthquake ground motions. It reveals a general shape similarity between the envelope of the Pseudo-Spectral Accelerations (PSAs) of SW decomposed components and the PSA of the corresponding ground motion. Based on this similarity, a novel method to determine the characteristic period Tg, the long-period transition period TD, the shape correction period Tβ, and the Design Response Spectrum (DRS) is proposed and evaluated. New methods to determine Tg, TD and Tβ from the signal decomposition perspective are integrated into the normalized DRS in Eurocode 8–2022, enabling the construction of the normalized DRS based on SW method (SWDRS). Furthermore, simple ground motion attenuation regression equations are derived to relate the parameters (Tg, TD, Tβ) and the corresponding spectral ordinates of the normalized SWDRS model with seismic magnitude and site conditions. The SWDRS model is validated by randomly selecting two sites in United States. For each site, the SWDRS is determined by using the attenuation regression equations and the DRS spectral plateau value from the official seismic hazard map. Comparisons between the SWDRS, the latest local DRS, and the severest historical PSA recorded at the specific site demonstrate that the SWDRS provides more accurate spectral values over intermediate- and long-period ranges for structural seismic design.

Automatic relocation of intermediate-depth earthquakes using adaptive teleseismic arrays

SUMMARY Intermediate-depth earthquakes, accommodating intraslab deformation, typically occur within subduction zone settings at depths between 60–300 km. These events are in a unique position to inform us about the geodynamics of the subducting slab, specifically the geometry of the slab and the stress state of the host material. Improvements in the density and quality of recorded seismic data enhance our ability to determine precise locations of intermediate-depth earthquakes, in order to establish connections between event nucleation and the tectonic setting. Depth phases (near-source surface reflections, e.g. pP and sP) are crucial for the accurate determination of earthquake source depth using global seismic data. However, they suffer from poor signal-to-noise ratios in the P wave coda. This reduces the ability to systematically measure differential traveltimes to the direct P arrival, particularly for the frequent lower magnitude seismicity which highlights considerable seismogenic regions of the subducted slabs. To address this limitation, we have developed an automated approach to group globally distributed stations at teleseismic distances into ad-hoc arrays with apertures of 2.5$^\circ$, before optimizing and applying phase-weighted beamforming techniques to each array. Resultant vespagrams allow automated picking algorithms to determine differential arrival times between the depth phases and their corresponding direct P arrival. Using these differential times we can then determine the depths of earthquakes, which in turn can be used to create a catalogue of relocated events. This will allow new comparisons and insights into the governing controls on the distribution of earthquakes in subducted slabs. We demonstrate this method by relocating intermediate-depth events associated with northern Chile and the Peruvian flat slab regions of the subducting Nazca plate. The relocated Chilean catalogue contains comparable event depths to an established catalogue, calculated using a semi-automated global methodology, which serves to validate our fully automatic methodology. The new Peruvian catalogue we generate indicates three broad zones of seismicity approximately between latitudes 1–7$^\circ$S, 7–13$^\circ$S and 13–19$^\circ$S. These align with flat to steep slab dip transitions and the previously identified Pucallpa Nest. We also find a regionally deeper slab top than indicated by recent slab models, with intraslab events concentrated at points where the slab bends, suggesting a link between slab flexure and intermediate-depth earthquake nucleation.

Results of the cyclic triaxial testing on mechanically-biologically treated waste.

Accurate assessment of the dynamic strength characteristics of mechanically-biologically treated (MBT) waste is crucial for the construction and safe operation of landfill sites. Herein, samples of MBT waste from the Hangzhou Tianziling landfill were collected and subjected to consolidated undrained cyclic triaxial tests under four confinement levels and six cyclic stress ratios (CSRs). Under cyclic loading, the MBT waste exhibited a critical CSR. If the CSR exceeds the critical value, the MBT waste specimen rapidly undergoes deformation and failure. Dynamic strength of MBT waste decreases with an increase in the number of cyclic vibrations and increases with an increase in confining pressure. Considering the influence of cyclic vibrations and confining pressure, a formula for dynamic strength in terms of cyclic vibrations and confining pressure has been established. The dynamic shear strength parameter ranges for MBT waste were obtained under different seismic magnitudes. We compared the dynamic and static shear strength parameters of MBT waste and municipal solid waste. These study findings can serve as a reference for the dynamic stability analysis of MBT waste landfills.

An Empirically Constrained Forecasting Strategy for Induced Earthquake Magnitudes Using Extreme Value Theory

Abstract Induced seismicity magnitude models seek to forecast upcoming magnitudes of induced earthquakes during the operation of subsurface industries such as hydraulic fracturing, geothermal stimulation, wastewater disposal (WWD), and carbon capture and storage. Accurate forecasting models could guide operational decision making in real time; for example, operations could be reduced or paused if forecast models indicate that magnitudes may exceed acceptable levels. Robust and transparent testing of forecasting models is required if they are to be adopted by operators and regulators of such industries. We develop and test a suite of models based on extreme value estimators to forecast the magnitudes of upcoming induced seismic events based on observed seismicity. We apply these models to multiple induced seismicity cases from WWD in Oklahoma and in western Texas, as well as other cases of seismicity caused by subsurface fluid injection in North America, Europe, and China. In total, our testing dataset consists of >80 individual sequences of induced seismicity. We find that all the models produce strong correlation between observed and modeled magnitudes, indicating that the forecasting provides useful information about upcoming magnitudes. However, some models are found to systematically overpredict the observed magnitudes, whereas others tend to underpredict. As such, the combined suite of models can be used to define upper and lower estimators for the expected magnitudes of upcoming events, as well as empirically constrained statistical expectations for how these magnitudes will be distributed between the upper and lower values. We conclude by demonstrating how our empirically constrained distribution can be used to produce probabilistic forecasts of upcoming induced earthquake magnitudes, applying this approach to two recent cases of induced seismicity.

Seismic Magnitude Forecasting through Machine Learning Paradigms: A Confluence of Predictive Models

This study focuses largely on earthquake prediction, which is a crucial element of geoscience and emergency and disaster management. We apply state-of- the-art machine learning methods, most notably the Random Forest Regression approach, to examine the intricate link between geographical data analysis and earthquake prediction. Once we have patiently traversed the challenges of seismic data processing, we create prediction models that deliver insights via sophisticated visualization of earthquake occurrences. The research offers confirmation that machine learning approaches perform exceptionally well for forecasting earthquakes. These results show the relevance of these paradigms for enhancing, among other things, early warning systems and catastrophic preparedness measures.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone

Abstract. This study provides a dataset and shows the spatial distribution of tsunami hazard in the South China Sea sourced from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data around the Manila subduction zone are used to invert the geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone, further used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude and applied to obtain a more reliable tsunami hazard assessment. The spatial distribution of tsunami wave height with a 1000-year return period is shown, and several high-hazard areas in the South China Sea are pointed out. Uncertainties in the seismic source are explored, including the slip heterogeneity, the upper limit of seismic magnitude and segmentation. The impact of the locking distribution and randomness of slip on tsunami hazard assessment demonstrates that the traditional uniform slip assumption significantly underestimates the tsunami hazard. Moreover, the assessment results involving the effect of the locking distribution should be more realistic and show a larger tsunami height than when only considering the stochastic slip in most areas, which should prompt coastal management agencies to enhance tsunami prevention awareness.

Seismic Magnitude Estimation Using Low-Frequency Strain Amplitudes Recorded by DAS Arrays at Far-Field Distances

ABSTRACT Downhole distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) data are now routinely acquired on fiber-optic cables deployed in wells for seismic imaging and microseismic monitoring. We develop a semiempirical workflow for estimating scalar seismic moment and moment magnitude of earthquakes using strain data recorded by downhole DAS arrays. At far-field distances, the time integral of axial strain is proportional to the displacement scaled by apparent slowness. Therefore, seismic moment can be directly estimated from the amplitude of the low-frequency plateau of the strain spectra divided by frequency, similar to the methodology commonly employed for far-field displacement spectra. The effect of polarization on strain amplitudes for different types of body waves is accounted for. Benefitting from the large spatial coverage provided by DAS arrays, moment estimates from multiple channels are averaged and an average radiation coefficient is assumed over the focal sphere. We validate the methods using data of microseismic events simultaneously recorded by a surface geophone array and by DAS on fiber deployed in two horizontal wells during a hydraulic fracturing experiment. For 106 microseismic events in the magnitude range ∼ −0.65 to ∼ +0.55, we find the DAS-derived magnitudes to be consistent with the magnitudes derived from the geophone array using traditional methods, with ∼95% of the magnitude estimates differing by less than ∼0.26 units. The workflow can be potentially extended to DAS arrays in vertical wells and to S waves recorded on dark fiber DAS arrays at the surface. This methodology does not require any calibration beyond knowledge of local seismic properties, and the use of the lowest possible frequencies reduces the influence of subsurface heterogeneities and the finite spatiotemporal extent of earthquake ruptures. The capacity to estimate robust seismic magnitudes from downhole DAS arrays allows improved evaluation and management of fracture growth and more effective mitigation of induced seismicity.

Considerations for the static and seismic design of pumped storage reservoirs in soft soils and seismic environments

AbstractFor recent hydroelectric pumped storage projects, the construction of embankment dam structures on alluvial deposits consisting of exceptionally soft soil and in areas with high seismicity was required. This contribution shares experiences and challenges from the static and seismic design of embankment dam structures and ground treatment options. Finite element‐based static and seismic analyses using the Hardening Soil Small Strain model (HSS) showed that preconsolidation has clear benefits compared to stone columns for ground improvement purposes. Regardless of general advantages of surface sealing systems for frequent and rapid impoundment level changes, it was found that clay core design options perform very well under seismic loading conditions and even better than surface‐sealed structures. Seismic ground and structure response analyses involving soft soil considering shear strain‐dependent stiffness degradation revealed that deamplification is expected in contrast to the rule‐of‐thumb amplification approaches enshrined in many seismic design guidelines and codes. It was found that this effect increases with seismic magnitudes and that saturation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) takes place. This results in relatively moderate structure excitations even under significant dynamic excitation.

Site class based seismic magnitude prediction equations for earthquake early warning

Site class based seismic magnitude prediction equations for earthquake early warning

Seismic Constraints on Hydrothermal Circulation and Magmato‐Tectonic Interactions Beneath Lucky Strike Volcano, Mid‐Atlantic Ridge

AbstractThe Lucky Strike volcano is the central edifice of the Lucky Strike segment on the slow spreading Mid‐Atlantic Ridge. The volcano summit hosts one of the largest known deep‐sea hydrothermal fields, and overlies an axial magma chamber (AMC) whose summit reflector lies 3–3.8 km beneath the seafloor. We present a 12‐year microearthquake catalog beneath the volcano, which we constructed using data collected from 2007 to 2019 as part of the EMSO‐Azores observatory. The catalog reveals continuous low magnitude seismicity (85% with ML < 0), focused mainly north‐northwest of the hydrothermal field and 0–2 km above the AMC reflector. Focal mechanisms estimated only from the 2010–2011 deployment show a mixture of thrust, normal and strike/slip faulting mechanisms. We propose that the observed microearthquake activity is due to thermal cracking, tectonic cracking, and possible small dike injections occurring at the base of hydrothermal downflow zones. We document a ∼800 m eastward shift of the seismicity sometime during a catalog gap from June 2013 to April 2015, accompanied by a change in the seismicity pattern from a patch just above the AMC to a more vertically aligned structure. We also identify several higher seismicity periods, often including relatively large magnitude events (ML > 0.8). We interpret the spatio‐temporal variations in seismicity patterns and the correlation between larger magnitude events and higher seismicity periods to indicate that the hydrothermal domain is a dynamic interface, where the variations are caused by changes in permeability and/or temperature induced by tectonic and small episodic melt injections.

Numerical investigation of the stress regime effect on injection-induced fault reactivation and associated seismicity

The occurrence of many seismic events in energy production projects is caused by fluid injection-induced reactivation of critically stressed faults. The distribution of local stress regime has a significant influence on natural earthquakes, while its role in controlling injection-induced fault slip behavior and seismicity magnitude remains poorly understood. In this paper, we present a three-dimensional hydro-mechanical coupled fault reactivation study using unified pipe-interface element method (UP-IEM). The accuracy and reliability of the numerical method are evaluated and confirmed by numerical verification and actual observation data in Pohang EGS project, South Korea. The relationship between fault aseismic slip, seismic slip and seismicity magnitude is analyzed. Results show that both aseismic and seismic slip have different spatiotemporal distribution with the variation of stress regime. The seismic slip zone will exceed the pressurized area with the increase of initial slip tendency under the strike-slip-faulting stress regime (σH>σv>σh). Compared with fluid pressure, the seismic slip is mainly determined by a sudden increase of the shear stress at the aseismic slip zone boundary. In addition, the location of the microseismic events moves towards the fluid pressure propagation front. The larger slip area and seismicity magnitude are easier to be induced under strike-slip-faulting stress regime than thrust-faulting stress regime (σH>σh>σv). The tensile failure and higher permeability of the fault induced at injection phase for normal-faulting stress regime (σv>σH>σh) leads to a greater seismogenic hazard at the shut-in stage.

Machine Learning-Based Precursor Detection Using Seismic Multi-Parameter Data

The application of certain mathematical–statistical methods can quantitatively identify and extract the abnormal characteristics from the observation data, and the comprehensive analysis of seismic multi-parameters can study and judge the risk of the tectonic regions better than a single parameter. In this study, the machine learning-based detection of seismic multi-parameters using the sliding extreme value relevancy method, based on the earthquake-corresponding relevancy spectrum, was calculated in the tectonic regions in the western Chinese mainland, and the R-value evaluation was completed. Multi-parameter data included the b value, M value (missing earthquakes), ƞ value (the relationship between seismic magnitude and frequency), D value (seismic hazard), Mf value (intensity factor), N value (earthquake frequency), and Rm value (modulation parameter). The temporal results showed that the high-value anomalies appeared before most target earthquakes during the training period. Moreover, some target earthquakes also occurred during the advantageous extrapolation period with high-value anomalies. The spatial results showed that some months before the target earthquakes, there was indeed a significant abnormal enhancement area that appeared near the epicenter, and the anomaly gradually disappeared after the earthquakes. This study demonstrated that machine learning techniques for detecting earthquake anomalies using seismic multi-parameter data were feasible.

Study on damage and fracture characteristics of wood based on acoustic emission b-value and seismic magnitude difference entropy

To assess the damage and fracture behavior of wood under load, a wood damage assessment method was proposed based on acoustic emission (AE) b-values and seismic magnitude difference entropy. First, AE signals from Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica (softwood) and Zelkova schneideriana (hardwood) specimens were collected separately at a sampling frequency of 500 kHz in a three-point bending test. Then, 52 dB was taken as the threshold of the AE event, and the b-value and seismic magnitude difference entropy were calculated at 4-s intervals. Finally, by comparing with the load‒time curve, the b-value and seismic magnitude difference entropy were used to evaluate the damage fracture degree. The results showed that an increase in the b-value indicates the accumulation of strain energy, and vice versa, corresponding to the concentrated release of strain energy. At the same time, the test process can be divided into three stages—elastic, elastic‒plastic and plastic—based on the level of the seismic magnitude difference entropy.

Deep fault sliding rates for Ka-Ping block of Xinjiang based on repeating earthquakes

Abstract The seismically active Ka-Ping Block within Xinjiang, China, represents a zone of potential earthquake hazards, and existing surface measurements cannot fully reflect the area’s sub-surface slip rates. To determine these slip rates and characterize the level of hazard that the study area may face in future years, using a cross-correlation of waveforms, we identified 432 repeat sequences along large faults (F1–F5) in the Ka-Ping Block between September 2009 and April 2022 and computed the annual slip rate for every sequence with the empirical relationship of the moment and the seismic magnitude. Spatial distribution images and temporal evolution characteristics of deep deformation in fault zones were constructed. We obtained five asperities in the Ka-Ping Block, the western portion of the PiQiang fault (F4) had a larger yearly slide rate than its eastern portion, and the southwest and eastern areas of the KEP station show an elevated risk of seismic activity within the next two years.

Seismic magnitude homogenization by unified regression method and its effect on seismicity parameters

Seismic magnitude homogenization by unified regression method and its effect on seismicity parameters

Feasibility of kinetic orbital bombardment

Abstract In this paper, the possible impact effects of orbital bombardment systems and their feasibility are studied. These effects are the projectile penetration into concrete and steel targets and seismic effects. The equations of motion for the re-entry of a projectile and the penetration were solved numerically. The projectile penetration is modelled using the Alekseevskii–Tate model. By varying the altitude (h), projectile length (L), manoeuvre velocity (ΔV) and the target properties, the flight time (t), earthquake magnitude (M) and penetration depth (P) are calculated. The calculations show that the impact of a tungsten alloy rod with a length of 8 m and a 0.4 m diameter results in an earthquake with a seismic magnitude of only 2.5 on the Richter scale. For concrete, the optimal result is obtained for a projectile with a length of 0.56 m. It penetrates 1.79 m with a minimal ΔV trajectory. These results show that a kinetic orbital bombardment system is not feasible without major technological developments, the impact angle being a bottleneck of the concept. Moreover, one has to accept very high costs. Without any means to change the attitude of the projectile, using ICBMs or bombers shows a better penetration performance than re-entry. Highlights Weapons in orbit may provide a strategic advantage. However, they are restricted by international space laws. Impact angle of the projectile is a bottleneck for kinetic orbital bombardment. Larger impact angles can be achieved, but at the expense of a larger mass-to-orbit. A hypersonic drag device may be used to optimise the impact angle and thus improve the system. Alternative projectile delivery methods (Bomber, Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)) show better performance for both steel and concrete targets. Essentially, only penetration phenomena matter because the seismic effects are not significant. Therefore, orbital bombardment systems don’t even resemble weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Given their limited effect, destroying a particular target requires a guidance and flight control system, which, given the high velocities, may not be feasible.

Earthquake occurrences in the Pacific Ring of Fire exhibit a collective stochastic memory for magnitudes, depths, and relative distances of events

Around 90 % of the world’s earthquakes occur at the Pacific Ring of Fire exposing the countries in this region to high risk of earthquake hazards. We model fluctuations of the different seismic magnitudes, interevent distances, and seismic depths as a function of earthquake occurrence from catalogs of Chile, Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, Philippines, and Southern California as a stochastic process with memory. We show that these fluctuations are governed by a single memory function that is described by a memory parameter μ and a decay parameter β. The values of μ exhibit an underlying characteristic memory behavior of seismic activities common to all the countries considered, while the values of β suggest a regional dependence which could be a manifestation of different seismic dynamics in various regions. This new perspective may provide a more versatile approach in studying the independent datasets that may be extracted from various earthquake catalogs.

B map evaluation and on-fault stress state for the Antakya 2023 earthquakes

The analysis of on-fault seismicity can enlighten the current stress state on the fault itself. Its definition is relevant to individuate fault patches that have not released all the accumulated stress even after the occurrence of a high magnitude earthquake. We use the b value to characterize the stress state on the fault of the Antakya 2023 main events, being b inversely proportional to the stress. The small magnitude seismicity occurring on the maximum slip fault-patches does not allow the b value estimation. This represents a strong indication that the maximum slip zone released most of the stress previously accumulated. Conversely, the lowest b values are located at the bends of the faults and close to the nucleation zone suggesting that, there, still exists not released stress implying that it could be reactivated in the future.