Magnitude Of Land Use Change Research Articles

A Multi-Objective Scenario Study of County Land Use in Loess Hilly Areas: Taking Lintao County as an Example

Land use serves as a connecting link between human activities and the natural ecology of the surface; under the multi-objective background of national policies and dual-carbon tasks, land use transformation is studied and simulated in multiple scenarios, and carbon stock changes are analyzed based on future land use to explore the path for a region to achieve multi-objective coordination. Drawing upon land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Lintao County, Gansu Province, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the dynamics governing land use transformation. Subsequently, employing the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model, we simulated the projected land use for Lintao County in 2035 under various scenarios. Furthermore, we utilized the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model to assess the change in carbon stock within the study area under each scenario. These analyses aim to furnish a robust scientific foundation for future land use planning endeavors in Lintao County. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The land use transition in Lintao County from 2000 to 2020 showed the strongest motivation for construction land growth, with continued rapid growth in the scale of urban land and other construction land and relatively slow growth in the land for rural settlement areas, while cropland and water areas continued to decrease, forest land grew slowly, the magnitude of land use change exhibited a higher intensity in river townships compared with mountainous townships. (2) The simulation results of cropland protection scenario (CPS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), economic development scenario (EDS), and comprehensive development scenario (CDS) in 2035 are better. Among them, the CDS, which considers various types of higher-level strategic requirements and can compensate for the single-goal nature of the single-demand scenario, demonstrates a higher level of rationality in the land use pattern. (3) The total carbon stock in descending order is the EPS, CDS, EDS, and CPS. Among these, the CDS is at a higher level of total carbon stock, and the changes in carbon stock in each land use site are more balanced, which is an ideal carbon stock state and a scenario more in line with multi-objective coordination.

US biofuel production and policy: implications for land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia

BackgroundIt has been argued that the US biofuel policy is responsible for the land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I). In this paper, following a short literature review that highlights the relevant topics and issues, we develop analytical and numerical analyses to evaluate the extent to which production of biofuels in the US alters land use in M&I. The analytical analyses make it clear that market-mediated responses may generate some land use change in M&I due to biofuel production in the US. These analyses highlight the role of substitution among vegetable oils in linking these economies in markets for vegetable oils. To numerically quantify these effects, we modified and used a well-known Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE), GTAP-BIO. We conducted some sensitivity tests as well.ResultsAccording to the simulation results obtained from two base case scenarios for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel, we find that producing 15 BGs of corn ethanol and 2 BGs gallons of soy biodiesel together could potentially increase area of cropland in M&I by 59.6 thousand hectares. That is less than 0.5% of the cropland expansion in M&I for the time period of 2000–2016, when biofuel production increased in the US. The original GTAP-BIO model parameters including the regional substitution rates among vegetable oils were used for the base case scenarios. The estimated induced land use change (ILUC) emissions values for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel are about 12.3 g CO2e MJ−1, 17.5 g CO2e MJ−1 for the base case scenarios. The share of M&I in the estimated ILUC emissions value for corn ethanol is 10.9%. The corresponding figure for soy biodiesel is much higher, 78%. The estimated ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel is sensitive with respect to the changes in the regional rates of substitution elasticity among vegetable oils. That is not the case for corn ethanol. When we replaced the original substitution elasticities of the base case, which are very large (i.e., 5 or 10) for many regions, with a small and uniform rate of substitution (i.e., 0.5) across the world, the ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel drops from 17.5 g CO2e MJ−1 to 10.16 g CO2e MJ−1. When we applied larger substitution elasticities among vegetable oils, the estimated ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel converged towards the base case results. This suggests that, other factors being equal, the base case substitution elasticities provide the largest possible ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel. Finally, our analyses clearly indicate that those analyses that limit their modeling framework to only palm and soy oil and ignore other types of vegetable oils and fats provide misleading information and exaggerate about the land use implications of the US biofuels for M&I.Conclusion(1) Production of biofuels in the US generates some land use effects in M&I due to market-mediated responses, in particular through the links between markets for vegetable oils. These effects are minor compared to the magnitude of land use change in M&I. However, because of the high carbon intensity of the peatland the emissions fraction of M&I is larger, in particular for soy biodiesel. (2) The GTAP-BIO model implemented a set of regional substitution elasticities among vegetable oils that, other factors being equal, provides the largest possible ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel. (3) With a larger substitution elasticity among all types of vegetable oils and animal fats in the US, less land use changes occur in M&I. That is due to the fact that a larger substitution elasticity among vegetable oils in the US, diverts a larger portion of the additional demand for soy oil to non-palm vegetable oils and animal fats that are produced either in the US or regions other than M&I. (4) Those analyses that limit their modeling framework to only palm and soy oils and ignore other types of vegetable oils and fats provide misleading information and exaggerate about the land use implications of the US biofuels for M&I.

Effect of present and past landscape structures on the species richness and composition of ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) and spiders (Araneae) in a dynamic landscape

Species diversity may have time-lagged responses to landscape changes, but whether species are more strongly related to present or past landscape could vary with the taxa or functional traits. In this study, the effects of present and past landscape structures on carabid and spider communities were investigated. We hypothesized that present landscape structure was more highly correlated to small, omnivorous or macropterous carabids and small or ground-hunting spiders, while past landscape structure was more highly correlated to large or predatory carabids and large spiders. We analyzed landscape data from 1955, 1977, 1984, 1993 and 2013 and species data from 1995 and 2013 within the suburb of Qianjiang, a city in China. We found that both past and present landscape metrics affected present species richness in 1995 and species composition in 2013 due to the correlation between past and present landscape metrics. The time delay or immediate response of species was species-specific and not dependent on different groups in relation to body size, wing morphology, dietary preference or foraging method. The stable landscape structure from 1984 to 1993 had the greatest impact on species richness in 1995. In addition, the semi-natural land without dramatic changes since 1977 significantly affected the carabid species diversity. In addition, the excessive increase in building lands from 1993 to 2013 also significantly affected species composition in 2013. Our studies suggested that both historical and present landscape structures, the magnitude of land use change and each species’ traits should be the focus of biodiversity conservation activities.

Modelling dynamic effects of multi-scale institutions on land use change

Formal institutions impact on the dynamics of land use change through their objectives, actions and decision-making processes in response to socio-economic or environmental changes such as climate change. The effects and interplay of these actions are not fully understood, and hence, institutional processes are rarely integrated in modelling analyses of land use change. The complex effects of institutional interactions within land systems can be better understood through modelling approaches that address the heterogeneity of the institutional actors involved and how their decisions affect temporal and spatial dynamics. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of autonomous land managers interacting with institutional agents at two spatial scales. We explore different parameters of institutional intervention (subsidy rate, triggers for action, delay in monitoring, scale-based precedence) under socio-economic drivers and analyse key metrics such as the maximum over- and undersupply of ecosystem services, connectivity of land uses, and degree of change in land use patterns. Levels of subsidy and action triggers have the greatest impact on the magnitude of land use change and the maximum oversupply of ecosystem services. In terms of achieving institutional objectives, subsidy rate is the most important single parameter in the model. Furthermore, we find non-linearity with variations in parameters that have important implications for current land use change modelling and requirements for empirical studies of land use planning institutions. Finally, the effects of high-end climate change may require entirely novel institutional behaviours.

Mapping land use changes resulting from biofuel production and the effect of mitigation measures

AbstractMany of the sustainability concerns of bioenergy are related to direct or indirect land use change (LUC) resulting from bioenergy feedstock production. The environmental and socio‐economic impacts of LUC highly depend on the site‐specific biophysical and socio‐economic conditions. The objective of this study is to spatiotemporally assess the potential LUC dynamics resulting from an increased biofuel demand, the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the potential effect of LUC mitigation measures. This assessment is demonstrated for LUC dynamics in Brazil towards 2030, considering an increase in the global demand for bioethanol as well as other agricultural commodities. The potential effects of three LUC mitigation measures (increased agricultural productivity, shift to second‐generation ethanol, and strict conservation policies) are evaluated by using a scenario approach. The novel modelling framework developed consists of the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET, the spatiotemporal land use allocation model PLUC, and a GIS‐based carbon module. The modelling simulations illustrate where LUC as a result of an increased global ethanol demand (+26 × 109 L ethanol production in Brazil) is likely to occur. When no measures are taken, sugar cane production is projected to expand mostly at the expense of agricultural land which subsequently leads to the loss of natural vegetation (natural forest and grass and shrubland) in the Cerrado and Amazon. The related losses of above and below ground biomass and soil organic carbon result in the average emission of 26 g CO2‐eq/MJ bioethanol. All LUC mitigation measures show potential to reduce the loss of natural vegetation (18%–96%) as well as the LUC‐related GHG emissions (7%–60%). Although there are several uncertainties regarding the exact location and magnitude of LUC and related GHG emissions, this study shows that the implementation of LUC mitigation measures could have a substantial contribution to the reduction of LUC‐related emissions of bioethanol. However, an integrated approach targeting all land uses is required to obtain substantial and sustained LUC‐related GHG emission reductions in general.

Evaluation of forest ecosystem services in Mediterranean areas. A regional case study in South Spain

An ecosystem services approach entails the development of a set of evaluation tools in order to quantify the benefits and vulnerabilities of each ecosystem. In this context, the current research explores the conceptualization of different evaluation tools for representative forest ecosystem services in Mediterranean areas.Mediterranean forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services, nevertheless they have to confront various threats such as deforestation, fires, and urban/industrial development. The Mediterranean region has suffered intense changes in land use over the past several decades such as intensification of agricultural and urban development, while marginal croplands have been abandoned and reforested. Thus, the dynamics of land use change have become an important driving force for the potential impact on ecosystem services. Quantifying the magnitude of land use change is therefore essential to estimate its consequences on ecosystem services.Taking this into account, the general aims of this research are (a) to evaluate the state and trends of forest ecosystem services at regional scale in Andalusia (South Spain), (b) to contribute to the methodology for accounting three main forest ecosystem services: carbon storage, protection of soil erosion, and cork oak provisioning, and (c) to assess how theses ecosystem services are affected by drivers of change, such as land use change. In this sense, the main results are the methodologies for the standardization and harmonization of the types of forest ecosystems using the mappings of land use (LULCMA), obtaining an objective quantification of the balance of surface supplying forest ecosystem services, and monitoring over time.

Linking geomorphologic knowledge, RS and GIS techniques for analyzing land cover and land use change: a multitemporal study in the Cointzio watershed, Mexico

It is well-established that changes in land cover and land use (LCLU) are relevant to current local and global changes that are directly linked with food security, human health, urbanization, biodiversity, trans-border migration, environmental refuges, water and soil quality, runoff and sedimentation rates, and other processes. This paper examines LCLU change processes within the Cointzio watershed (Central Mexico). The analysis covers a 28-year time period from 1975 to 2003. LCLU changes were deduced from multi-temporal remote sensing analyses (1975, 1986, 1996, 2000 and 2003). Nearly all of the LCLU changes experienced in the Cointzio watershed occurred during the 1986-1996 period. Half of the 665 km² of the watershed have changed during this period, in what corresponds to a ten-fold increase in the rate of change as compared to the 1975-1986 and 1996-2003 periods. These massive changes are probably related to the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986, which limited the transit of undocumented Mexican workers to the United States of America. The methodology applied in this research constitutes a low-cost alternative for evaluating the impact of LCLU change in watersheds. The magnitude of land use change differed during the periods of analyses in the watershed, functional zones and geoforms. The methodological approach applied in this analysis integrates standard procedures to evaluate land cover and land use change in watersheds. Due to the practical value of the results, the data and information generated during the analysis have been made available to local authorities.

Effects of land use changes on streams in terrestrial-aquatic palm ecotones (Morichals) of the Orinoco lowlands

Streams running through terrestrial-aquatic palm ecotones (Morichals) are widely distributed in the Orinoco basin and the Brazilian Cerrado; however, little is known about how these ecosystems respond to human actions. We investigated the effects of land use changes on water chemistry and benthic chlorophyll in five loworder streams in the Orinoco lowlands, Venezuela. Current land use and land use changes from 1977 to 2007 were analyzed for the ecotone and catchment areas above each sampling site. At monthly intervals over a 16-month period, discharge was measured and samples were collected at each stream for water chemistry and benthic chlorophyll. Multivariate techniques were used to analyze spatial and temporal variation in streams and their relationship with land use. Changes in land use over 30 years were characterized by loss of savanna vegetation and increase in agricultural and urban areas. Multivariate analyses indicated that spatial and temporal variations observed in the streams were related to current ecotonal forest and to rates of change in catchment land use between 1977 and 2007. Impacts of land use change on stream variables depended primarily on the rate of savanna loss, increase in fallow land and the rate of increase of urban area. Streams draining catchments with a lower proportion of ecotonal forest, greater rates of savanna loss and increase in fallow land showed higher chlorophyll and nitrate concentrations. Higher phosphorus and suspended solids concentrations, runoff and conductivity were observed in streams with higher rates of increase in urban lands in their catchments. Our results suggest that ecotonal vegetation and the magnitude of land use change have implications for stream condition.