Modelling dynamic effects of multi-scale institutions on land use change

Sascha Holzhauer,Mark Rounsevell,Calum Brown

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1424-5

Sascha Holzhauer, Mark Rounsevell + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1424-5

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Abstract

Formal institutions impact on the dynamics of land use change through their objectives, actions and decision-making processes in response to socio-economic or environmental changes such as climate change. The effects and interplay of these actions are not fully understood, and hence, institutional processes are rarely integrated in modelling analyses of land use change. The complex effects of institutional interactions within land systems can be better understood through modelling approaches that address the heterogeneity of the institutional actors involved and how their decisions affect temporal and spatial dynamics. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of autonomous land managers interacting with institutional agents at two spatial scales. We explore different parameters of institutional intervention (subsidy rate, triggers for action, delay in monitoring, scale-based precedence) under socio-economic drivers and analyse key metrics such as the maximum over- and undersupply of ecosystem services, connectivity of land uses, and degree of change in land use patterns. Levels of subsidy and action triggers have the greatest impact on the magnitude of land use change and the maximum oversupply of ecosystem services. In terms of achieving institutional objectives, subsidy rate is the most important single parameter in the model. Furthermore, we find non-linearity with variations in parameters that have important implications for current land use change modelling and requirements for empirical studies of land use planning institutions. Finally, the effects of high-end climate change may require entirely novel institutional behaviours.

Highlights

Understanding the land use system and its possible future development is crucial for the design of effective environmental policies
CRAFTY-CoBRA is a derivative of the CRAFTY framework (Murray-Rust et al 2014; Blanco et al 2017a, b) that is able to represent decision-making for a wide range of institutional actions
The Agent-based models (ABMs) presented here simulates land managers and institutional agents at a ‘global’ scale and regional scale with distinct preferences when reacting to supply-demand gaps of ecosystem services

Summary

Introduction

Understanding the land use system and its possible future development is crucial for the design of effective environmental policies. This is especially important as the dynamic nature of climate (Porter et al 2014), demography (e.g. through migration and ageing) and consumption patterns (Mulligan et al 2014) increasingly have substantial impacts on the land use system. Land use dynamics are tightly interlinked with the activities of formal institutions such as governmental agencies or non-governmental organisations at different spatial levels (Lambin et al 2001). Multilevel coordination and the interplay between governmental, administrative agencies and the private sector are important aspects in determining the adaptive capacity of individual land managers (Mimura et al 2014; Nay et al 2014)

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