Frequency-magnitude Relation Research Articles

Evidence that earthquakes have been triggered by reservoir in the Song Tranh 2 region, Vietnam

In the Song Tranh 2 (ST2) hydropower reservoir located in the Quang Nam province, Central Vietnam, earthquakes started occurring soon after impoundment of the reservoir in late 2010. Earthquakes continue to occur in the region, and two earthquakes of M 4.6 and 4.7 on October 22, 2012 and November 15, 2012, respectively, have been reported (Trieu et al. 2014; Giang et al. 2015) in the vicinity of the reservoir. In the present study, b-value has been estimated, and focal mechanism solutions have been computed for the first time using moment tensor inversion approach. Also, the influence of impoundment of reservoir on the occurrence of earthquakes has been computed for the ST2 region based on Coulomb stress. A quality data set of 595 earthquakes recorded for the period of October 2012 to April 2014 at ten stations of the seismic network operated by the Institute of Geophysics (IGP) has been used to calculate b-values for the northern and southern seismicity clusters of the region. In general, the b-values associated with reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) are found to be higher than the regional b-values in the frequency-magnitude relation of earthquakes. For the ST2 region, it is found that the b-values for the northern and southern clusters are 0.94 ± 0.04 and 0.90 ± 0.04, respectively. Focal mechanism solutions obtained for the two earthquakes close to the reservoir have a right-lateral strike-slip mechanism, with the preferred planes trending NW-SE. These results are concurrent with the orientation of the nearby local surface faults, which we confirm as the active faults in this region. Influence of the stresses due to reservoir water load on the local seismicity is computed based on the obtained focal mechanism by using the concept of fault stability. It is found that most of the earthquakes occur in the positive Coulomb stress region, which shows the influence of reservoir impoundment on earthquake occurrence in the vicinity. Our results suggest that the local earthquakes are triggered by the impoundment of the ST2 reservoir.

Effects of sampling interval on the frequency - magnitude relationship of rockfalls detected from terrestrial laser scanning using semi-automated methods

Using change detection and semi-automated identification methods, it is possible to extract detailed rockfall information from terrestrial laser scanning data to build a database of events, which can be used in the development of the frequency-magnitude relationship for a slope. In this study, we have applied these methods to the White Canyon, a hazardous slope that presents rockfall hazards to the CN Rail line in British Columbia, to build a database of rockfalls including their locations, volumes, and block shapes. We identified over 1900 rockfall events during a 15-month period, ranging in volume from 0.01 to 45 m3. The frequency of these events changed throughout the year, with the highest periods of activity occurring over the winter months. We investigated how the sampling interval, or duration between scans, can affect how the rockfalls are identified, and therefore the frequency-magnitude relationship for the slope using datasets with fewer scans. We show that as the duration between scans becomes larger, fewer rockfalls are detected, as multiple events that have occurred in the same location cluster together into a single event. The results of this study can be used to assist the railways in planning the appropriate number and duration between future scans, in order to capture frequency-magnitude data for the slope with a desired level of detail.

Long-Term b Value Variations of Shallow Earthquakes in New Zealand: A HMM-Based Analysis

The magnitude–frequency relationship is a fundamental statistic in seismology. Customarily, the temporal variations of b values in the magnitude–frequency distribution are demonstrated via “sliding-window” approach. However, the window size is often only tuned empirically, which may cause difficulties in interpretation of b value variability. In this study, a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) is applied to characterize b value variations of New Zealand shallow earthquakes over decades. HMM-based approach to the b value estimation has some appealing properties over the popular sliding-window approach. The estimation of b value is stable over a range of magnitude thresholds, which is ideal for the interpretation of b value variability. The overall b values of medium and large earthquakes across North Island and northern South Island in New Zealand vary roughly at a decade scale. It is noteworthy that periods of low b values are typically associated with the occurrences of major large earthquakes. The overall temporal variations of b values seem prevailing over many grids in space as evidenced by a comparison of spatial b values in many grids made between two periods with low or high b values, respectively. We also carry out a pre-seismic b value analysis for recent Darfield earthquake and Cook Strait swarm. it is suggested that the mainshock rupture is nucleated at the margin of or right at low b value asperities. In addition, short period of pre-seismic b value decrease is observed in both cases. The overall time-varying behavior of b values over decades is an indication of broad scale of time-varying behavior associated with subduction process, probably related to the convergence rate of the plates. The advance in the method of b value estimation will enhance our understanding of earthquake occurrence and may lead to improved risk forecasting.

A Multi-Faceted Debris-Flood Hazard Assessment for Cougar Creek, Alberta, Canada

A destructive debris flood occurred between 19 and 21 June 2013 on Cougar Creek, located in Canmore, Alberta. Cougar Creek fan is likely the most densely developed alluvial fan in Canada. While no lives were lost, the event resulted in approximately $40 M of damage and closed both the Trans-Canada Highway (Highway 1) and the Canadian Pacific Railway line for a period of several days. The debris flood triggered a comprehensive hazard assessment which is the focus of this paper. Debris-flood frequencies and magnitudes are determined by combining several quantitative methods including photogrammetry, dendrochronology, radiometric dating, test pit logging, empirical relationships between rainfall volumes and sediment volumes, and landslide dam outburst flood modeling. The data analysis suggests that three distinct process types act in the watershed. The most frequent process is normal or “clearwater” floods. Less frequent but more damaging are debris floods during which excessive amounts of bedload are transported on the fan, typically associated with rapid and extensive bank erosion and channel infilling and widening. The third and most destructive process is interpreted to be landslide dam outbreak floods. This event type is estimated to occur at return periods exceeding 300 years. Using a cumulative magnitude frequency technique, the data for conventional debris floods were plotted up to the 100–300s year return period. A peak-over-threshold approach was used for landslide dam outbreak floods occurring at return periods exceeding 300 years, as not all such events were identified during test trenching. Hydrographs for 6 return period classes were approximated by using the estimated peak discharges and fitting the hydrograph shape to integrate to the debris flood volumes as determined from the frequency-magnitude relationship. The fan volume was calculated and compared with the integrated frequency-magnitude curve to check of the validity of the latter. A reasonable match was accomplished, verifying the overall relationship. The findings from this work were later used as input to a risk assessment seeking to quantify risk to loss of life and economic losses. The risk assessment then formed the basis for design of debris-flood mitigation structures.

Stability analysis and reinforcement evaluation of high-steep rock slope by microseismic monitoring

The stability of excavated high-steep rock slopes is most significant in the long-term safety of large-scale hydropower projects. Dagangshan rock slope had an unloading fractured zone (XL-316) and a fault (f231) during excavation, which resulted in a high risk of slope instability. Anti-shear tunnels were constructed for enhancing the overall shear resistance and reinforcing the slope at six different elevations. The microseismic technique was employed to investigate microseismic activities during excavation and after reinforcement. An integrated method of microseismic energy density and the magnitude-frequency relation based on microseismic monitoring was proposed to analyse the stability and reinforcement effect of the slope. During excavation, a large number of microseismic events took place with few low-magnitude events and numerous high-magnitude events. The aggravated damage occurred in the major discontinuities during excavation. The number of low-magnitude microseismic events increased after reinforcement, and the b value obviously increased, which means the slope stability was substantially enhanced. Microseismic activities were evidently reduced, and the accumulated microseismic energy increased slowly. The stresses were transferred towards the edge of the anti-shear tunnel, and a small number of low-energy events occurred. The targeted reinforcement has served well for its purpose and improves the mechanical performance of the discontinuities. The application of the proposed method was verified by 3D RFPA-Centrifuge software. The proposed method can be considered as an effective way to evaluate the reinforcement effect and stability of high-steep rock slopes.

A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran

The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source. There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic. This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran. The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes. Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process. GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources. The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran. Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible. All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale; duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed. Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account. The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico based on historical and instrumentally recorded seismicity

The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is an active volcanic chain being deformed by an intra-arc extensional fault network. Although several crustal earthquakes with magnitude>7 have originated in the TMVB since the 16th century, the background seismicity of this geological structure is very low and the region is usually considered of low seismic hazard. In this study, we present an updated probabilistic seismic hazard model of the TMVB. The seismicity catalog used here includes forty-three historically and instrumentally recorded earthquakes, from 1858 to 2014; five of these are large earthquakes that occurred in the TMVB during the XIXth century. Due to the lack of a statically representative sample, we propose, in a qualitative manner, the seismicity catalog is complete for M≥4 since 1964 and for M≥6 since 1858. Moreover, we introduce three different earthquake frequency-magnitude relations. The first one is a conventional Gutenberg Richter fit of the distribution of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes data. The other two are non-conventional, semi-parametric approaches that integrate the historical and the instrumental data to determine seismicity rates in the region. Our preferred model (seismicity model B) fits separately the instrumental and the historical data and merge the two fits into one curve. A uniform seismic hazard (USH) of the TMVB for a return period of 500 years was calculated considering three major sources of earthquakes: 1) Subduction thrust-faulting events in the Middle American Trench (MAT); 2) Earthquakes within the subducted Cocos plate and, 3) Shallow crustal earthquakes in the TMVB. According to the seismicity model B, the average recurrence time of a M≥7 earthqua-ke on the TMVB is approximately 150 years. In contrast, the recurrence time estimated from the instrumental catalog is 12,000 years. The results of this seismicity model, which is based on historical and instrumental data, agrees also with the return periods of prehistoric earthquakes, estimated for short segments of the fault system in the TMVB in paleoseismological studies. When comparing the results of our preferred seismicity model, the PGA estimated using only the instrumental seismicity are 18 to 56% smaller than those predicted by the model using the historical catalog.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Saudi Arabia using spatially smoothed seismicity and analysis of hazard uncertainty

We analyze the results of a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment obtained for Saudi Arabia using a spatially smoothed seismicity model. The composite up-to-date earthquake catalog is used to model seismicity and to determine earthquake recurrence characteristics. Different techniques that are frequently used for the analysis of input data are applied in the study. The alternative techniques include the declustering procedures for catalog processing, statistical techniques for estimation the magnitude–frequency relationship (MFR), and the seismicity smoothing parameter. The scheme represents epistemic uncertainty that results from an incomplete knowledge of earthquake process and application of alternative mathematical models for a description of the process. Our calculations that are based on the Monte Carlo technique include also a consideration of the aleatory uncertainty related to the dimensions and depths of earthquake sources, parameters of MFR, and scatter of ground-motion parameter. The hazard maps show that the rock-site peak ground acceleration (PGA) is the highest for the seismically active areas in the north-western (Gulf of Aqaba, PGA > 300 cm/s2 for return period 2475 years) and south-western (PGA > 100 cm/s2 for return period 2475 years) parts of the country. We show that the procedures for catalog declustering have the highest influence on the results of hazard estimations, especially for high levels of hazard. The choice of smoothing parameter is a very important decision that requires proper caution. The relative uncertainty that is ratio between the 85th and 15th percentiles may reach 50–60% for the areas located near the zones of high-level seismic activity.

Study of seismicity in the NW Himalaya and adjoining regions using IMS network

The Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) of the International Data Center (IDC) has been used in order to investigate the seismicity of the Northwest Himalaya and its neighboring region for the time period June 1999 to March 2015 within the geographical coordinates 25–40° N latitude and 65–85° E longitude. We have used a very precisely located earthquake dataset recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS) Network containing 7,583 events with body wave magnitudes from 2.5 to 6.3. The study area has been subdivided into six regions based on the Flinn-Engdahl (F-E) seismic and geographical regionalization scheme, which was used as the region classifications of the International Data Center catalog. The examined region includes NW India, Pakistan, Nepal, Xizang, Kashmir, and Hindukush. For each region, Magnitudes of completeness (Mc) and Gutenberg-Richter (GR) recurrence parameters (a and b values) have been estimated. The Gutenberg-Richter analysis is preceded by an overview of the seismotectonics of the study area. The obtained Mc values vary from 3.5 to 3.9. The lower value of Mc was found mainly in Xizang region whereas the higher Mc threshold is evident in Pakistan region. However, the b values vary from 1.19 to 1.48. The lowest b value is recorded in Xizang region, which is mostly related to the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) fault, whereas the highest b values are recorded in NW India and Kashmir regions, which are mostly related to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault. The REB for the selected period has been compared to the most renowned bulletin of global seismicity, namely that issued by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). A study of 4,821 events recorded by USGS in the study region indicates that about 36 % of seismic events were missed and the catalog is considered as complete for events with magnitudes ≥4.0. However, both a and b values are obviously higher than those of IMS catalog. The a and b parameters in the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude–frequency relationship have been utilized to forecast the probability of future earthquakes of different magnitudes and returned periods (recurrence intervals).

Hydrologic Modification and Vanishing Self-Organized Criticality of River Flows Caused by Dam Operations

AbstractWidespread dam construction has significantly altered natural hydrologic processes and consequently affected river ecosystems. The concept of self-organized criticality (SOC) implies the ability of a system to create and maintain its own function and has important implications for the entire ecosystem, thus can be used to assess anthropogenic disturbances. This study focuses on how reservoir operations affect the SOC behavior of river flows. Taking five large-sized reservoirs in China as examples, the maximum likelihood methods, Kolmogorov Smirnov testing and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, are used to examine the typical SOC fingerprints for daily river flow series, including their power law frequency-magnitude distributions and long-range correlations. The results show that with increasing reservoir-modified pressure, the frequency-magnitude relationships of natural flows gradually deviate from heavy-tailed power laws and tend to behave as normal or lognormal distributions, characterized by vani...

Magnitude-frequency distribution of submarine landslides in the Gioia Basin (southern Tyrrhenian Sea)

Regional inventories and magnitude-frequency relationships provide critical information about landslides and represent a first step in landslide hazard assessment. Despite this, the availability of accurate inventories in the marine environment remains poor because of the commonly low accessibility of high-resolution data at regional scales. Evaluating high-resolution bathymetric data spanning the time interval 2007–2011 for the Gioa Basin of the southern Tyrrhenian Sea yielded a landslide inventory of 428 events affecting an area of >85 km2 and mobilizing approximately 1.4 km3 of sediment. This is the first time that this area is studied in such detail, justifying comparison with other areas both onland and offshore. Statistical analyses revealed that the cumulative distribution of the dataset is characterized by two right-skewed probability distributions with a heavy tail. Moreover, evidence of a rollover for smaller landslide volumes is consistent with similar trends reported in other settings worldwide. This may reflect an observational limitation and the site-specific geologic factors that influence landslide occurrence. The robust validation of both power-law and log-normal probability distributions enables the quantification of a range of probabilities for new extreme events far from the background landslide sizes defined in the area. This is a useful tool at regional scales, especially in geologically active areas where submarine landslides can occur frequently, such as the Gioia Basin.

Features of Earthquake Source Process Simulated by Vere‐Jones’ Branching Crack Model

As opposed to the conventional 2D (circular/elliptical crack) and 1D (linear crack) models for earthquake rupture, which are, respectively, for small‐to‐large earthquakes and mega‐earthquakes, Vere‐Jones’ branching crack model describes the extreme case when the entire rupture process is completely controlled by randomness. This article discusses the similar features between the conventional source models and Vere‐Jones’ branching crack model, which include (a) the magnitude–frequency relation, (b) the source time function, and (c) the rupture duration–seismic moment relation. We proved that the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation holds as an asymptote for more general cases of branching processes. The branching crack model shows that the variance of observed rupture durations is relatively larger for small magnitudes and gives a scaling relation of T ∝ M 1/2 between the rupture duration T and the seismic moment M of an earthquake. Moreover, the stochastic property of the branching process explains why the earthquake magnitude cannot be determined until the entire source process is completed. The results in this article imply that the randomness caused by many unknown factors in the complex environments of earthquake sources cannot be ignored, and it can be effectively described by Vere‐Jones’ branching crack model. We conclude that the earthquake rupture is at least an intermediate process between the conventional deterministic model and the stochastic branching crack model if its mechanism is not completely controlled by randomness, as described by the latter.

CLIFF COLLAPSE HAZARD FROM REPEATED MULTICOPTER UAV ACQUISITIONS: RETURN ON EXPERIENCE

Abstract. Cliff collapse poses a serious hazard to infrastructure and passers-by. Obtaining information such as magnitude-frequency relationship for a specific site is of great help to adapt appropriate mitigation measures. While it is possible to monitor hundreds-of-meter-long cliff sites with ground based techniques (e.g. lidar or photogrammetry), it is both time consuming and scientifically limiting to focus on short cliff sections. In the project SUAVE, we sought to investigate whether an octocopter UAV photogrammetric survey would perform sufficiently well in order to repeatedly survey cliff face geometry and derive rock fall inventories amenable to probabilistic rock fall hazard computation. An experiment was therefore run on a well-studied site of the chalk coast of Normandy, in Mesnil Val, along the English Channel (Northern France). Two campaigns were organized in January and June 2015 which surveyed about 60 ha of coastline, including the 80-m-high cliff face, the chalk platform at its foot, and the hinterland in a matter of 4 hours from start to finish. To conform with UAV regulations, the flight was flown in 3 legs for a total of about 30 minutes in the air. A total of 868 and 1106 photos were respectively shot with a Sony NEX 7 with fixed focal 16mm. Three lines of sight were combined: horizontal shots for cliff face imaging, 45°-oblique views to tie plateau/platform photos with cliff face images, and regular vertical shots. Photogrammetrically derived dense point clouds were produced with Agisoft Photoscan at ultra-high density (median density is 1 point every 1.7cm). Point cloud density proved a critical parameter to reproduce faithfully the chalk face’s geometry. Tuning down the density parameter to “high” or “medium”, though efficient from a computational point of view, generated artefacts along chalk bed edges (i.e. smoothing the sharp gradient) and ultimately creating ghost volumes when computing cloud to cloud differences. Yet, from a hazard point of view, this is where small rock fall will most likely occur. Absolute orientation of both point clouds proved unsufficient despite the 30 black and white quadrants ground control point DGPS surveyed. Additional ICP was necessary to reach centimeter-level accuracy and segment rock fall scars corresponding to the expected average daily rock fall volume (ca. 0.013 m3).

CLIFF COLLAPSE HAZARD FROM REPEATED MULTICOPTER UAV ACQUISITIONS: RETURN ON EXPERIENCE

Cliff collapse poses a serious hazard to infrastructure and passers-by. Obtaining information such as magnitude-frequency relationship for a specific site is of great help to adapt appropriate mitigation measures. While it is possible to monitor hundreds-of-meter-long cliff sites with ground based techniques (e.g. lidar or photogrammetry), it is both time consuming and scientifically limiting to focus on short cliff sections. In the project SUAVE, we sought to investigate whether an octocopter UAV photogrammetric survey would perform sufficiently well in order to repeatedly survey cliff face geometry and derive rock fall inventories amenable to probabilistic rock fall hazard computation. An experiment was therefore run on a well-studied site of the chalk coast of Normandy, in Mesnil Val, along the English Channel (Northern France). Two campaigns were organized in January and June 2015 which surveyed about 60 ha of coastline, including the 80-m-high cliff face, the chalk platform at its foot, and the hinterland in a matter of 4 hours from start to finish. To conform with UAV regulations, the flight was flown in 3 legs for a total of about 30 minutes in the air. A total of 868 and 1106 photos were respectively shot with a Sony NEX 7 with fixed focal 16mm. Three lines of sight were combined: horizontal shots for cliff face imaging, 45°-oblique views to tie plateau/platform photos with cliff face images, and regular vertical shots. Photogrammetrically derived dense point clouds were produced with Agisoft Photoscan at ultra-high density (median density is 1 point every 1.7cm). Point cloud density proved a critical parameter to reproduce faithfully the chalk face’s geometry. Tuning down the density parameter to “high” or “medium”, though efficient from a computational point of view, generated artefacts along chalk bed edges (i.e. smoothing the sharp gradient) and ultimately creating ghost volumes when computing cloud to cloud differences. Yet, from a hazard point of view, this is where small rock fall will most likely occur. Absolute orientation of both point clouds proved unsufficient despite the 30 black and white quadrants ground control point DGPS surveyed. Additional ICP was necessary to reach centimeter-level accuracy and segment rock fall scars corresponding to the expected average daily rock fall volume (ca. 0.013 m3).

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

Abstract. Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg–Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

Implementation of integrated multi-channel analysis of surface waves and waveform inversion techniques for seismic hazard estimation

In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion method and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20 %) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels for both selected probabilities of exceeding the median.

Joint Determination of Event Epicenter and Magnitude from Seismic Intensities

Characteristic features of seismicity with long recurrence intervals can be deduced from analysis of historical earthquake records that inherently suffer from uncertainty in the event locations and magnitudes. A novel method to determine the event epicenters and magnitudes jointly from seismic intensities is proposed. The probability for a set of event epicenter and magnitude is assessed by accounting the fitness between the observed and reference seismic intensities, spatial‐occurrence probability based on seismicity density distribution, and temporal‐occurrence probability from the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship. A set of event epicenter and magnitude yielding the peak probability is chosen. The validity of the method is tested for both synthetic and instrumental seismic‐intensity data, confirming high accuracy. The method is applied effectively to historical events with written seismic damage records. It is found that the errors generally decrease with increasing number and azimuthal coverage of seismic‐intensity data, and increase with epicentral distances. The method appears to be promising for historical earthquakes of which source properties are poorly known. The method is applicable for assessment of the properties of long‐period seismicity, which is crucial for assessment of potential seismic hazards.

Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH

Volcanic ash is an increasingly common, long-range hazard, impacting on our globalised society. The Asia-Pacific region is rapidly developing as a major contributor to the global population and economy and is home to one-quarter of the world’s active volcanoes. Here we present a regional-scale volcanic ash hazard assessment for the Asia-Pacific using a newly developed framework for Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA). This PVAHA was undertaken using the Volcanic Ash Probabilistic Assessment of Hazard (VAPAH) algorithm. The VAPAH algorithm considered a magnitude-frequency distribution of eruptions and associated volcanic ash load attenuation relationships for the Asia-Pacific, and integrated across all possible events to arrive at an annual exceedance probability for sites of interest. The Asia-Pacific region was divided into six sub-regions (e.g. Indonesia, Philippines and Southeast Asia, Melanesia/Australia, Japan/Taiwan, New Zealand/Samoa/Tonga/Fiji and Russia/China/Mongolia/Korea) characterised by 276 source volcanoes each with individual magnitude-frequency relationships. Sites for analysis within the Asia-Pacific region were limited to land-based locations at 1-km grid spacing, within 500 km of a volcanic source. The Indonesian sub-region exhibited the greatest volcanic ash hazard in the region at the 100-year timeframe, with additional sources (in Japan, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Kamchatka - Russia and New Zealand) along plate boundaries manifesting a high degree of hazard at the 10,000-year timeframe. Disaggregation of the volcanic ash hazard for individual sites of interest provided insight into the primary causal factors for volcanic ash hazard at capital cities in Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Japan. This PVAHA indicated that volcanic ash hazard for Port Moresby was relatively low at all timeframes. In contrast to this, Jakarta, Manila and Tokyo are characterised by high degrees hazard at all timeframes. The greatest hazard was associated with Tokyo and the PVAHA was able to quantify that the large number of sources impacting on this location was the causal factor contributing to the hazard. This evidence-based approach provides important insights for decision makers responsible for strategic planning and can assist with prioritising regions of interest for more detailed volcanic ash hazard modelling and local scale planning.

Assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings and analysis of landslide risk at the municipal scale: application to the Loures municipality, Portugal

Abstract. This study offers a semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides in a Portuguese municipality (Loures), as well as the quantitative landslide risk analysis computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the economic value of the buildings. The hazard was assessed by combining the spatiotemporal probability and the frequency–magnitude relationship of the landslides. The physical vulnerability assessment was based on an inquiry of a pool of European landslide experts and a sub-pool of landslide experts who know the study area, and the answers' variability was assessed with standard deviation. The average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site, the inventory of which was listed on the field. The economic value was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach, and the risk was computed for different landslide magnitudes and different spatiotemporal probabilities. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high-magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0.2 to 1 as a function of the structural building types and the landslide magnitude, and are maximal for 10 and 20 m landslide depths. However, the highest risk was found for the landslides that are 3 m deep, because these landslides combine a relatively high frequency in the Loures municipality with a substantial potential damage.

Storm-triggered landslides in the Peruvian Andes and implications for topography, carbon cycles, and biodiversity

Abstract. In this study, we assess the geomorphic role of a rare, large-magnitude landslide-triggering event and consider its effect on mountain forest ecosystems and the erosion of organic carbon in an Andean river catchment. Proximal triggers such as large rain storms are known to cause large numbers of landslides, but the relative effects of such low-frequency, high-magnitude events are not well known in the context of more regular, smaller events. We develop a 25-year duration, annual-resolution landslide inventory by mapping landslide occurrence in the Kosñipata Valley, Peru, from 1988 to 2012 using Landsat, QuickBird, and WorldView satellite images. Catchment-wide landslide rates were high, averaging 0.076 % yr−1 by area. As a result, landslides on average completely turn over hillslopes every ∼ 1320 years, although our data suggest that landslide occurrence varies spatially and temporally, such that turnover times are likely to be non-uniform. In total, landslides stripped 26 ± 4 tC km−2 yr−1 of organic carbon from soil (80 %) and vegetation (20 %) during the study period. A single rain storm in March 2010 accounted for 27 % of all landslide area observed during the 25-year study and accounted for 26 % of the landslide-associated organic carbon flux. An approximately linear magnitude–frequency relationship for annual landslide areas suggests that large storms contribute an equivalent landslide failure area to the sum of lower-frequency landslide events occurring over the same period. However, the spatial distribution of landslides associated with the 2010 storm is distinct. On the basis of precipitation statistics and landscape morphology, we hypothesise that focusing of storm-triggered landslide erosion at lower elevations in the Kosñipata catchment may be characteristic of longer-term patterns. These patterns may have implications for the source and composition of sediments and organic material supplied to river systems of the Amazon Basin, and, through focusing of regular ecological disturbance, for the species composition of forested ecosystems in the region.