Abstract The prevalence of asymptomatic, incidental meningiomas is increasing due to greater frequency of brain imaging. This retrospective cohort study of adult patients presenting at a single institution from 1996-2020 integrated clinical data, serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) volumetrics, DNA methylation profiling, and targeted gene expression profiling to define the natural history and molecular architecture of incidental meningiomas. Volumetrics were calculated from contrast-enhanced brain MRIs at time of diagnosis compared to serial surveillance MRIs (average 3 MRIs per patient pre-intervention, range: 1-12) DNA methylation groups and gene expression risk scores were defined for 123 samples that underwent resection. Time-to-event analyses were performed for progression-free survival (PFS), symptom-free survival (SFS), and treatment-free survival (TFS). The cohort included 238 meningiomas from 207 patients. Median age at diagnosis was 59 years and 81.5% of patients were female. Median clinical and imaging follow-up were 9.1 and 6.7 years, respectively, during which time 50.8% progressed. Median maximum diameter and volume at diagnosis were 2.20 cm and 4.25 cm3, respectively, and median pre-treatment volumetric growth rate was 19.2% per year. Median pre-treatment PFS and TFS were 3.10 and 1.27 years, respectively, and median SFS and post-treatment PFS were not reached. Cox proportional hazards regression identified maximum diameter at diagnosis as a significant predictor of worse pre-treatment PFS (multivariate HR 1.65 per 1 cm [95% CI 1.19–2.28], p=0.0027) and worse TFS (multivariate HR 1.44 per 1 cm [95% CI 1.17–1.76], p<0.001). Skull base tumors had with worse SFS (multivariate HR 2.48 [95% CI 1.02–6.00], p=0.045). Molecular and histological features among incidental meningiomas that ultimately underwent resection (n=176, 74.0%) were reassuring (89.2% WHO grade 1, 10.2% WHO grade 2). These findings suggest maximum diameter at diagnosis of incidental meningiomas is significantly associated with earlier progression and eventual treatment, and skull base tumors have earlier symptom development.
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