Madden–Julian Oscillation Activity Research Articles

Asymmetric Modulation of Western North Pacific Cyclogenesis by the Madden–Julian Oscillation under ENSO Conditions

Abstract The present study investigates the modulation by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1975–2010. Results reveal a stronger modulation of cyclogenesis by the MJO during El Niño years, while the modulations in neutral and La Niña years are comparable to each other. The asymmetric background modification by ENSO is found to greatly affect the extent of MJO modulation under different ENSO conditions. First, MJO activity is intensified and extends farther eastward during El Niño years, instead of being confined west of 150°E as in neutral and La Niña periods. Thus, the influence of MJO is stronger and more zonally widespread in El Niño years, causing significant differences in cyclogenesis parameters in most parts of the WNP. In El Niño years, cyclogenesis is further enhanced in the active phase due to synchronization of MJO signals with favorable background ENSO conditions. While in the inactive phase, the dominance of the strong MJO signals leads to further suppression in TC formation. This leads to overall enhancement of the MJO–TC relationship during El Niño years. On the other hand, the MJO signals confined to the western region west of 150°E in neutral and La Niña years lead to changes in TC-related parameters mainly in the western region, which contribute to the comparatively weaker TC modulations. It can thus be concluded that the MJO has an asymmetric modulation on cyclogenesis in the WNP under different ENSO conditions.

Spatial–Intensity Variations in Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract The spatial–intensity variability of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during boreal winter and relationships with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated. Daily gridded precipitation is used to define two types of contiguous regions of extreme precipitation (CREPs): the intensity and spatial extent exceeding the 75th and 90th percentiles of frequency distributions. Extreme precipitation occurs twice as frequently when the MJO is active than inactive. Joint probabilities of the fractional area of CONUS sectors when the MJO is active are 2.0–2.5 higher than probabilities during inactive days for both 75th and 90th percentile CREPs (similar for the intensity of CREPs). Probabilities of the fractional area of 75th percentile CREPs when the MJO is active in neutral ENSO are higher than during warm or cold ENSO. Joint probabilities of the fractional area during MJO and warm ENSO are higher than MJO and cold ENSO and statistically significant over southern sectors. Results are similar for joint probabilities of intensity exceedance and MJO activity in warm and cold ENSO phases. Proportions of 75th and 90th percentile CREPs for each sector and phase of the MJO are predominantly large when MJO convective signals are over the central Indian Ocean or western Pacific. Probabilities of the fractional area of 90th percentile CREPs conditioned on MJO phases, however, do not show clear predominance. This indicates that the MJO is not the sole player in the occurrences of CREPs. Last, this study concludes that probabilities of the fractional area and intensity of 75th and 90th percentile CREPs in the CONUS do not depend on the amplitude of the MJO.

Intraseasonal atmospheric variability and its interannual modulation in Central Africa

The spatial and temporal structures of the intraseasonal atmospheric variability over central Africa is investigated using 2.5° × 2.5° daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis zonal winds for the period 1980–2010. The study begins with an overview of the Central African rainfall regime, noting in particular the contrast amongst Western and Eastern parts, with different topography and surface conditions features. The annual mean rainfall and OLR over the region revealed a zone of intense convective activity centered on the equator near 30°E, which extends southward and covers almost all the Congo forest. The annual cycle of rainfall reflects the classical bi-annual shift of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone across the equatorial belt, between 10°S and 10°N. The result of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analysis has shown that the three leading EOF modes explain about 45 % of total intraseasonal variability. The power spectra of all the three corresponding principal components (PCs) peak around 45–50 days, indicating a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. The first mode exhibits high positive loadings over Northern Congo, the second over Southern Ethiopia and the third over Southwestern Tanzania. The PCs time series revealed less interannual modulation of intraseasonal oscillations for the Congo mode, while Ethiopian and Tanzanian modes exhibit strong interannual variations. Hovmoller plots of OLR, 200 and 850 hPa NCEP zonal winds found the eastward propagating features to be the dominant pattern in all the three times series, but this propagation is less pronounced in the OLR than in the 850 and 200 hpa zonal wind anomalies. An index of MJO strength was built by averaging the 30–50 day power for each day. A plot of MJO indices and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle confirm a strong interannual modulation of MJO over Eastern central Africa partially linked with the ENSO events (El Nino and La Nina). Strong MJO activity is observed during La Nina years or during ENSO-neutral years, while weak or absent MJO activity is typically associated with strong El Nino episodes.

Assessing the Influence of the MJO on Strong Precipitation Events in Subtropical, Semi-Arid North-Central Chile (30°S)

Abstract Annual precipitation in subtropical, semiarid north-central Chile (30°S) during rainy years comprises a few (3–5) strong events in the fall and winter, which are presumably modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Precipitation from 1979–2009 was recorded daily at three stations along the Elqui Valley. The relationship between the MJO and precipitation is investigated from two perspectives: 1) examining a MJO index (MJOI) based on the actual precipitation events and 2) examining the likelihood of precipitation based on a favorable MJOI. About 80% of the strong precipitation events at the coast in La Serena are related to an active MJO near the central equatorial Pacific. These events are often typified by broad, slow moving synoptic systems in phase with the MJO propagation. Blocking in the far southeast Pacific is associated with precipitation 75% of the time, while deep troughs make up the rest. A relationship between a MJOI and strong rainfall suggests that, though it could be used as a potential diagnostic, the number of cases where there is a favorable MJOI but no precipitation (i.e., false alarms) limits its utility. Additional criteria such as the Southern Oscillation (SO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) phases were used to reject false alarms. Rejecting cases with positive values of the SO index reduced the number of false alarms from 70% to 58%, leaving about two false alarms for every correctly diagnosed event. The AAO index could not discriminate between false alarms and real cases. While a favorable MJOI increases the likelihood of precipitation in the Elqui Valley, false alarms remain problematic.

Dynamical Ocean Forcing of the Madden–Julian Oscillation at Lead Times of up to Five Months

AbstractThe authors show that a simple three-dimensional ocean model linearized about a resting basic state can accurately simulate the dynamical ocean response to wind forcing by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). This includes the propagation of equatorial waves in the Indian Ocean, from the generation of oceanic equatorial Kelvin waves to the arrival of downwelling oceanic equatorial Rossby waves in the western Indian Ocean, where they have been shown to trigger MJO convective activity. Simulations with idealized wind forcing suggest that the latitudinal width of this forcing plays a crucial role in determining the potential for such feedbacks. Forcing the model with composite MJO winds accurately captures the global ocean response, demonstrating that the observed ocean dynamical response to the MJO can be interpreted as a linear response to surface wind forcing. The model is then applied to study “primary” Madden–Julian events, which are not immediately preceded by any MJO activity or by any apparent atmospheric triggers, but have been shown to coincide with the arrival of downwelling oceanic equatorial Rossby waves. Case study simulations show how this oceanic equatorial Rossby wave activity is partly forced by reflection of an oceanic equatorial Kelvin wave triggered by a westerly wind burst 140 days previously, and partly directly forced by easterly wind stress anomalies around 40 days prior to the event. This suggests predictability for primary Madden–Julian events on times scales of up to five months, following the reemergence of oceanic anomalies forced by winds almost half a year earlier.

In Situ Observations of Madden–Julian Oscillation Mixed Layer Dynamics in the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans

Abstract The boreal winter response of the ocean mixed layer to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the Indo-Pacific region is determined using in situ observations from the Argo profiling float dataset. Composite averages over numerous events reveal that the MJO forces systematic variations in mixed layer depth and temperature throughout the domain. Strong MJO mixed layer depth anomalies (>15 m peak to peak) are observed in the central Indian Ocean and in the far western Pacific Ocean. The strongest mixed layer temperature variations (>0.6°C peak to peak) are found in the central Indian Ocean and in the region between northwest Australia and Java. A heat budget analysis is used to evaluate which processes are responsible for mixed layer temperature variations at MJO time scales. Though uncertainties in the heat budget are on the same order as the temperature trend, the analysis nonetheless demonstrates that mixed layer temperature variations associated with the canonical MJO are driven largely by anomalous net surface heat flux. Net heat flux is dominated by anomalies in shortwave and latent heat fluxes, the relative importance of which varies between active and suppressed MJO conditions. Additionally, rapid deepening of the mixed layer in the central Indian Ocean during the onset of active MJO conditions induces significant basin-wide entrainment cooling. In the central equatorial Indian Ocean, MJO-induced variations in mixed layer depth can modulate net surface heat flux, and therefore mixed layer temperature variations, by up to ~40%. This highlights the importance of correctly representing intraseasonal mixed layer depth variations in climate models in order to accurately simulate mixed layer temperature, and thus air–sea interaction, associated with the MJO.

The moisture source sequence for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation as derived from satellite retrievals of HDO and H2O

A number of competing theories to explain the initiation mechanism, longevity and propagation characteristics of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) have been developed from observational analysis of the tropical climate and minimal dynamical models. Using the isotopic composition of atmospheric moisture from paired satellite retrievals of H2O and HDO from the boundary layer and mid troposphere, we identify the different sources of moisture that feed MJO convection during its life cycle. These fluxes are then associated with specific dynamical processes. The HDO/H2O isotope ratio data show that during the early phase of the MJO, the mid‐troposphere is dominated by moisture evaporated from the ocean surface that was transported vertically undergoing minimal distillation. The contribution from the evaporative source diminishes during early convective activity but reappears during the peak of MJO activity along with an isotopically depleted flux, which is hypothesized to originate from easterly convergence. The contribution of different moisture sources as shown from the HDO/H2O data is consistent with model results where the sustaining of deep convection requires a feedback between convergence, precipitation strength and evaporation. In the wake of an MJO event, the weak vertical isotopic gradient, depletion in boundary layer δD and the uniquely moist and depleted vapor in the mid troposphere all point toward a prominent presence of moisture originated from rainfall re‐evaporation, which confirms the prediction that the transition from convective to stratiform rains is important to the moisture budget of the MJO.

A Subtropical Cyclonic Gyre Associated with Interactions of the MJO and the Midlatitude Jet

This paper describes a large cyclonic gyre that lasted several days in the northwest Pacific during July 1988. Cyclonic winds at 850 hPa extended beyond the 2000-km radius with a radius of maximum winds of 700–800 km. The gyre exhibited clear skies within and north of its center. Active convection extended 4000 km in longitude to its south. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was in its active phase in the Indian Ocean prior to gyre formation. Consistent with earlier studies, diabatic heating in the MJO was associated with an anomalous upper-tropospheric westerly jet over the northeast Asian coast and a jet exit region over the northwest Pacific. Repeated equatorward wave-breaking events developed downwind of the jet exit region. One such event left behind a region of lower-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity and convection in the subtropics that played a key role in the gyre formation. A second wave-breaking event produced strong subsidence north of the mature gyre that contributed to its convective asymmetry. Gyres from 1985 and 1989 were compared to the 1988 case. All three gyres developed during an active MJO in the Indian Ocean. Each gyre displayed the same strong convective asymmetry. Each developed in July or August during the climatological peak in breaking Rossby waves in the northwest Pacific. Finally, all of the gyres developed during La Niña at nearly the same location. This location and the convective structure of the gyres closely matched composite La Niña anomalies during boreal summer.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in CCSM4

Abstract This study assesses the ability of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) to represent the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group’s prescribed diagnostic tests are used to evaluate the model’s mean state, variance, and wavenumber–frequency characteristics in a 20-yr simulation of the intraseasonal variability in zonal winds at 850 hPa (U850) and 200 hPa (U200), and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Unlike its predecessor, CCSM4 reproduces a number of aspects of MJO behavior more realistically. The CCSM4 produces coherent, broadbanded, and energetic patterns in eastward-propagating intraseasonal zonal winds and OLR in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans that are generally consistent with MJO characteristics. Strong peaks occur in power spectra and coherence spectra with periods between 20 and 100 days and zonal wavenumbers between 1 and 3. Model MJOs, however, tend to be more broadbanded in frequency than in observations. Broad-scale patterns, as revealed in combined EOFs of U850, U200, and OLR, are remarkably consistent with observations and indicate that large-scale convergence–convection coupling occurs in the simulated MJO. Relations between MJO in the model and its concurrence with other climate states are also explored. MJO activity (defined as the percentage of time the MJO index exceeds 1.5) is enhanced during El Niño events compared to La Niña events, both in the model and observations. MJO activity is increased during periods of anomalously strong negative meridional wind shear in the Asian monsoon region and also during strong negative Indian Ocean zonal mode states, in both the model and observations.

Ocean Rossby waves as a triggering mechanism for primary Madden–Julian events

AbstractThe Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is sporadic, with episodes of cyclical activity interspersed with inactive periods. However, it remains unclear what may trigger a Madden–Julian (MJ) event which is not immediately preceded by any MJO activity: a ‘primary’ MJ event. A combination of case‐studies and composite analysis is used to examine the extent to which the triggering of primary MJ events might occur in response to ocean dynamics. The case‐studies show that such events can be triggered by the arrival of a downwelling oceanic equatorial Rossby wave, which is shown to be associated with a deepening of the mixed layer and positive sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the order of 0.5–1 °C. These SST anomalies are not attributable to forcing by surface fluxes which are weak for the case‐studies analysed. Furthermore, composite analysis suggests that such forcing is consistently important for triggering primary events. The relationship is much weaker for successive events, due to the many other triggering mechanisms which operate during periods of cyclical MJO activity. This oceanic feedback mechanism is a viable explanation for the sporadic and broadband nature of the MJO. Additionally, it provides hope for forecasting MJ events during periods of inactivity, when MJO forecasts generally exhibit low skill. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

An Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Formations in the South China Sea during the Late Season

This study examines tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the South China Sea (SCS) associated with the strong northeasterly monsoon during the late season. Results show that the percentage of all vortices that develop to TC intensity is lower in the late season when compared to that associated with the mei-yu front in May and June. But the average formation time for the late-season cases is significantly shorter than that for the mei-yu frontal cases. Composite analyses show that the formation cases in the late season have larger low-level vorticity and upper-level divergence as well as higher 700-hPa relative humidity when compared to the nonformation cases. Another major difference between the formation and the nonformation cases is the low-level northeasterlies to the north (or upstream) of the incipient disturbance, which weakens right before the pre-TC disturbance reaching 25 kt (~13 m s−1). The weakening of the northeasterlies may be important to TC formation because it decreases the vertical wind shear and prevents the shift of the disturbance center from over the southern SCS to near the Borneo landmass. Furthermore, it reduces the stabilizing effect associated with the cold- and dry-air intrusion. Previous studies have shown that stronger equatorial westerlies during the active Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) period may produce stronger cyclonic shear vorticity; thus, favorable for triggering more convection activities and more vortex formations. However, more vortices or cloud clusters are not necessarily more favorable for an individual vortex to organize into a TC. Nonetheless the initial setup of favorable synoptic environment appears to be important for the further development of the incipient vortex.

Representation of MJO Variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is arguably the most important intraseasonal mode of climate variability, given its significant modulation of global climate variations and attendant societal impacts. Advancing the current understanding and simulation of the MJO using state-of-the-art climate data and modeling systems is thus a necessary goal for improving MJO prediction capability. MJO variability is assessed in NOAA/NCEP reanalyses and two versions of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), CFS version 1 (CFSv1) and its update version 2 (CFSv2). The analysis leans on a variety of diagnostic procedures and includes MJO sensitivity to varying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. It is found that significant improvements have been realized in the representation of MJO variations in the new NCEP Climate Forecast System reanalysis (CFSR) as evidenced by outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) power spectral analysis and more coherent propagation characteristics of precipitation and 850-hPa zonal winds over the Eastern Hemisphere in CFSR-only depictions. Conversely, while modest improvements are realized in the CFSv2 as compared to CFSv1, in general the simulation of the MJO continues to be a challenge. Both versions produce strong eastward propagating variance of convection and wind fields in the intraseasonal frequency band. However, the simulated MJO propagates slower than the observed with difficulties traversing the Maritime Continent into the western Pacific, as noted in many previous modeling studies. The CFS shows robust intraseasonal simulations over the west Pacific during El Niño years with diminished simulation capability over the Indian Ocean during La Niña years. This is likely a manifestation of the preference for La Niña MJO activity to occur over the Indian Ocean and the simulation challenges over that domain.

Modulation of cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean by Madden - Julian oscillation

The relationship of genesis and intensity of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) over the north Indian Ocean with the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined using 33 years (1975 - 2007) data of MJO index and best track of (CDs) developed by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The MJO index based on outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and zonal wind in upper (200 hPa) and lower (850 hPa) troposphere (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) has been used for this purpose.
 The MJO strongly modulates the genesis and intensity of CDs over the north Indian Ocean. However there are other factors contributing to cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean, as about 60% of cyclogenesis during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons are not significantly related with MJO. While the probability of cyclogenesis during monsoon season is higher with MJO in phase 4 and 5 (Maritime Continent), that during post-monsoon season is higher with MJO in phase 3 and 4 (east Indian Ocean and adjoining Maritime Continent). It indicates that while possibility of genesis during monsoon season is significantly suppressed with active MJO at phase 1, 7 and 8 (Africa, western Hemisphere and adjoining Pacific Ocean), there is no significant relationship between genesis and active MJO at phase 1, 7 and 8 during post-monsoon season. The anomalous cyclonic circulation at lower levels over central and north Bay of Bengal in association with MJO at phase 4 and 5 favours enhanced probability of cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal during monsoon season. The anomalous easterlies in association with MJO at phase 1 and development of anomalous ridge over south India in association with MJO at phase 7 and 8 which are weak monsoon features lead to suppressed cyclogenesis over north Indian Ocean during this season. The anomalous north-south trough in easterlies embedded with cyclonic circulation over the south west/west central Bay of Bengal in association with southerly surge over the region during active MJO in phase 3 and 4 most favourably influences the convection and enhances the probability of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season.
 The genesis of CDs is more sensitive to phase than the amplitude while the intensification of CDs is more dependent on the amplitude of MJO. Comparing monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, the modulation of genesis, intensification and duration of CDs by the MJO is more during the monsoon season than the post-monsoon season.

Seasonal Modulations of the Active MJO Cycle Characterized by Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis

Abstract A novel methodology is presented for the identification of the mean cycle of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) along the equator. The methodology is based on a nonlinear principal component (NLPC) computed with a neural network model. The bandpass-filtered input data encompass 30 yr with zonal winds at 850 and 200 hPa plus outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The NLPC is conditioned on a sufficiently strong MJO activity and is computed both for the pooled dataset and for the dataset stratified into seasons. The NLPC for all data depicts a circular mode formed by the first two linear principal components (LPCs) with marginal contributions by the higher-order LPCs. Hence, the mean MJO cycle throughout the year is effectively captured by the amplitude of the leading two LPCs varying in quadrature. The NLPC for individual seasons shows additional variability, which mainly arises from a subordinate oscillation of the second pair of LPCs superimposed on the annual MJO signal. In reference to the all-year solution, the difference in resolved variability approximately accounts for 9% in solstitial seasons and 3% in equinoctial seasons. The phasing of the third LPC is such that convective activity oscillations over the Maritime Continent as well as wind oscillations over the Indian Ocean appear enhanced (suppressed) during boreal winter (summer). Also, convective activity oscillations appear more pronounced at the date line during both winter and summer. The phasing of the fourth LPC is such that upper-level westerlies over the Atlantic region are more persistent during boreal spring than during other seasons.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Relative Value of Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability that impacts weather and climate. Forecast skill of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States (CONUS) during winter is higher when the MJO is active and has enhanced convection over the Western Hemisphere, Africa, and/or the western Indian Ocean. This study applies a simple decision model to examine the relationships between the MJO and the relative value of deterministic forecasts of extreme precipitation. Value in the forecasts is significantly higher and extends to longer leads (2 weeks) during active MJO.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Relative Value of Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability that impacts weather and climate. Forecast skill of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States (CONUS) during winter is higher when the MJO is active and has enhanced convection over the Western Hemisphere, Africa, and/or the western Indian Ocean. This study applies a simple decision model to examine the relationships between the MJO and the relative value of deterministic forecasts of extreme precipitation. Value in the forecasts is significantly higher and extends to longer leads (2 weeks) during active MJO.

Will global warming modify the activity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation?

AbstractThe Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability in the climate system. Observations suggest that warming in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans in recent decades may have contributed to increased trends in the annual number of MJO events. A stochastic model is used to project changes in MJO activity under a global warming scenario. The mean number of events per year may rise from ∼3.9 (1948–2008) to ∼5.7 (2049–2099) and the probability of very active years (5 or more events) may significantly increase from 0.51 ± 0.01 (1990–2008) to 0.75 ± 0.01 (2010–2027) and 0.92 ± 0.01 (2094–2099). Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Extended Eliassen‐Palm fluxes associated with the Madden‐Julian oscillation in the stratosphere

Links are sought between Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO)–related variations in the troposphere and stratospheric circulation. Tropospheric variations of equatorial MJO‐filtered 200 hPa zonal winds define indices of MJO activity for two equatorial regions in the Indian and western Pacific oceans. These indices are used to define composite means of MJO‐filtered Extended Eliassen‐Palm (E‐P) fluxes for eight height levels from the upper troposphere well into the stratosphere. Evidence is presented for significant and coherent MJO departures throughout the lower stratosphere. Significant departures of the vertical component of E‐P flux flow into the lower stratosphere both in the tropics and at higher latitudes, especially over Canada. These are accompanied by horizontal flux departures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from the central tropical Pacific into northern Canada. In this region, there is a divergence of Extended E‐P flux, piling up wave energy leading to the observed increased cyclonic motion. Evidence supports the hypothesis that these high‐latitude circulation variations in the stratosphere are due to a combination of two quite distinct mechanisms. In the first, poleward propagation occurs in the upper troposphere with vertical propagation at higher latitudes. In the second, upward propagation occurs in low latitudes into the lower stratosphere. This is followed by poleward propagation into higher latitudes and then farther upward propagation.

An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Models and Reanalyses Including Precipitation Variations Associated with MJO Activity

AbstractIn this paper, the results of an examination of precipitation forecasts for 1–30-day leads from global models run at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during November 2007–February 2008 are presented. The performance of the model precipitation forecasts are examined in global and regional contexts, and results of a case study of precipitation variations that are associated with a moderate to strong Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event are presented.The precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and NCEP operational prediction models have nearly identical temporal correlation with observed precipitation at forecast leads from 2 to 9 days over the Northern Hemisphere during the cool season, despite the higher resolution of the ECMWF operational model, while the ECMWF operational model forecasts are slightly better in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere during the warm season. The ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) precipitation forecasts perform only slightly worse than the NCEP operational model, while NCEP’s Climate Forecast System low-resolution coupled model forecasts perform the worst among the four models. In terms of bias, the ECMWF operational model performs the best among the four model forecasts that were examined, particularly with respect to the ITCZ regions in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Local temporal correlations that were computed on daily precipitation totals for day-2 forecasts against observations indicate that the operational models at ECMWF and NCEP perform the best during the 4-month study period, and that all of the models have low to insignificant correlations over land and over much of the tropics. They perform the best in subtropical and extratropical oceanic regions.Also presented are results that show that striking improvements have been made over the past two decades in the ability of the models to represent precipitation variations that are associated with MJO. The model precipitation forecasts exhibit the ability to characterize the evolution of precipitation variations during a moderate–strong period of MJO conditions for forecast leads as long as 10 days.

Madden‐Julian Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere

Links are sought between Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO)‐related variations in the troposphere and stratospheric winds, temperature, and ozone. Tropospheric variations of equatorial MJO‐filtered 200 hPa zonal winds define indices of MJO activity for two equatorial regions in the Indian and Western Pacific oceans. These indices are used to calculate composite means of MJO filtered winds, temperature, and ozone mixing ratio for eight height levels from the upper troposphere well into the stratosphere. Strong evidence is presented for significant and coherent MJO departures throughout the lower stratosphere. At 100 hPa, these departures show easterlies in the equatorial regions of the compositing centers and nearly symmetric anticyclonic centers at 25° poleward of those centers, which are associated with significant negative departures in both temperature and ozone mixing ratio. Near 40°N MJO departures of meridional velocity, temperature, and ozone mixing ratio generally tilt westward with height. The most important aspects of these features propagate eastward at a rate of about 5 m/s in the Eastern Hemisphere and several times faster in the Western Hemisphere.