Macroprudential Policy Research Articles

How Does Macroprudential Policy Impact Bank Risk-Taking and Profitability: Evidence from Indian Commercial Banks

ABSTRACT This study analyses the impact of macroprudential policy (MaPP) on Indian banks’ risk-taking and profitability. Using commercial bank data from 2004–05 to 2019–20, the risk-taking is measured by Z-score, and loan loss provision and profitability by return on average assets and return on average equity, respectively. Employing the panel system-GMM technique, the study finds. (1) MaPP mitigates bank risk-taking by enhancing the bank’s stability and reducing the procyclicality of loan loss provisions. (2) MaPP is found to have a positive impact on bank profitability. (3) MaPP is found to be more effective in the context of private and foreign banks as compared to nationalized banks. (4) Within the macroprudential toolkit, reserve requirements and risk-weights are found to have a positive impact on risk-taking and profitability, whereas provisioning requirements are found to have a negative impact.

Default Risk, Risk Premium, and Corporate Resilience: The Role of Regulatory and Stabilization Policies

This study investigates the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy measures and evaluates whether policymakers should address financial disruptions. To achieve this goal, we developed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates frictions in financial markets and financial shocks alongside traditional macroeconomic shocks. One of the main focuses of macroprudential policies is to stabilize credit cycles. We used Moroccan data to estimate the model and assess various policy actions to counter imbalances in financial markets, including adjustments to the interest rate tool. Our findings highlight the benefits of addressing financial disruptions, the extent depending on the shock characteristics. While acting on interest rates in response to financial variables may stabilize some economic factors, it has the potential to increase the volatility of others substantially. The results confirm that the use of optimal regimes can reduce default processes and ensure companies stabilize risk premiums. Implementing such regulations leads to greater opening of the companies’ capital to external financing sources. JEL Classification C11, D53, D58, E52, E58

Effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from over 6000 estimates

This paper builds a novel database on the effects of macroprudential policy drawing from 58 empirical studies, comprising over 6000 results on a wide range of instruments and outcome variables. It encompasses information on statistical significance, standardized magnitudes, and other characteristics of the estimates. Using meta-analysis techniques, the paper estimates average effects to find (i) statistically significant effects on credit, but with considerable heterogeneity across instruments; (ii) weaker and more imprecise effects on house prices; (iii) quantitatively stronger effects in emerging markets and among studies using micro-level data; and (iv) statistically significant evidence of leakages and spillovers. Other findings include relatively stronger impacts for tightening than loosening actions and negative effects on economic activity in the near term.

The role of speculation on housing price disparities

This paper explores the impact of speculation on disparities in home purchase prices within neighborhoods. Using administrative data on residential real estate transactions in Singapore's private housing market, our analysis reveals that housing unit prices increase over time within a neighborhood in the presence of speculators. However, this pattern remains stable after the implementation of macroprudential policies aimed at deterring speculation. Our mechanism analysis indicates that while speculative sales contribute to the increase in the price of neighboring units over time, speculative purchases have negligible effects. These findings underscore the potential of macroprudential policies in mitigating speculation and promoting housing affordability.

Tail risk connectedness during geopolitical shocks: assessing the impact of Russian-Ukraine conflict on G7 stock markets

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the tail risk connectedness among G7 stock markets using a TVP-VAR frequency connectedness approach and several robustness testing procedures. Such work focuses on the dynamics of tail risk connectedness during and after the conflict. Results identify that the conflict significantly increased tail risk connectedness among G7 stock markets, with the highest estimated levels observed two- and three months thereafter during the implementation of international targeted sanctions packages, signalling the strong persistence of short-term and total connectedness, respectively. The increase in connectedness can be attributed to factors such as heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, increased interconnectivity due to elevated risk and concomitant safe-haven behaviour, financial contagion, disrupted supply chains, and shifts in investor sentiment. Results emphasize the importance of monitoring and managing tail risk connectedness among financial markets, providing valuable insights for macroprudential policy design and promoting financial stability in the face of geopolitical risks.

Exploring causal interactions between macroprudential policy and financial cycles in South Africa

This study investigated the causal interactions between macroprudential policy, measured by the Macroprudential Policy Index (MPI), and financial cycles represented by the Aggregate Financial Cycle (AFC) and the Credit and Asset Prices Financial Cycle (CAFC) in South Africa from 1970q1 to 2023q2. Additionally, the study explored the effects of macroprudential policy during different phases of financial cycles. Using the time-varying Granger-causality model, the study found that the MPI Granger-caused financial cycles during the 2003/07 credit boom in South Africa, while the AFC and CAFC Granger-caused macroprudential policy during the Covid-19-induced collapse of financial markets. The results suggest that macroprudential policy is employed more proactively during financial booms and more reactively during financial busts in South Africa. The Markov switching dynamic regression model used to assess the MPI's effects revealed that macroprudential policy's effectiveness is stronger during financial busts and weaker during financial booms in South Africa. This is because financial institutions in South Africa tend to resist stricter regulations during boom phases due to heightened optimism about future prospects. Conversely, they are more receptive to stimulatory interventions during bust phases. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the South African Reserve Bank and the Prudential Authority use macroprudential policy more assertively during financial booms to enhance its effectiveness. This could involve setting more stringent parameters upon activating macroprudential policy tools or complementing macroprudential policy with monetary policy during financial booms.

The Moderating Effect of Macroprudential Policies on the Relationship Between the Effectiveness of the Board of Directors in Shaping the Bank's Risk-Taking Behavior

Macroeconomic instability in 2020 caused by COVID-19 can affect the stability of the country's financial system and trigger risks to banking performance. The implementation of macroprudential policies and the effectiveness of the board of directors as policy implementers can be one of the solutions to this problem. The purpose of this study is to see how the influence of macroprudential policies and the effectiveness of the board of directors in shaping bank risk-taking behavior. The method used is panel data regression method and moderation regression with a sample of 43 banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange including banks that consistently published their financial statements for the last five years. The results showed that partially only the effectiveness of the board of directors and company size affected bank risk-taking behavior, while macroprudential policies, macroprudential policies that moderate the effectiveness of the board of directors, and inflation were considered to not affect bank risk-taking behavior, this was due to differences in bank-specific characteristics, the effectiveness of corporate governance, policy implementation in the form of policy easing and tightening, and the interaction between macroprudential policies and monetary policy. However, simultaneously the independent variables and control variables have a significant influence on bank risk-taking behavior.

The Business Cycle and the Financial Cycle: Granger Causality for the Peruvian Economy, 2000 – 2019

It is relevant to know the relationship between the financial and business cycles to prevent the appearance of financial crises and their negative effects on the macroeconomy. In this sense, a better understanding of the links between financial cycles and the business cycle of Peru can provide valuable information for economic and macroprudential policy decisions. This study examines the causal relationship between Peru's financial and business cycles. The dynamic factors methodology is used to measure the financial cycle, taking four representative indicators of the financial sector: Volume of loans to the private sector (credit market), the Lima Stock Exchange General Index (stock market), Embig Peru (bond market), and the Exchange Rate (currency market) (Ramos, 2019). On the one hand, using the Granger causality test in the frequency domain, it was found that the financial cycle causes the business cycle at frequencies greater than 10 quarters (2.5 years). In contrast, the business cycle does not cause the financial cycle.

Implementation of Loan to Value Easing Policy and Efforts to Overcome Problem Property Credit

The function of national banking is not only as a forum for collecting and distributing public funds or as an intermediary for savers and borrowers (investors) but also to improve people's living standards; one of these efforts is to provide various types of Credit, one of which is property credit. One of Bank Indonesia's efforts is to provide relief by increasing the loan to value (LTV) ratio for the lower middle class. Based on this background, this article examines and analyzes the considerations for issuing macroprudential policies regarding loan to value relaxation on property loans and the efforts banks should make to handle problem loans. This type of research is empirical legal research because it examines the considerations for issuing macroprudential policies regarding loan to value relaxation on property loans and the efforts banks should make to handle problem loans. PT. State Savings Bank (Persero) Tbk. Applying a maximum limit differs from Bank Indonesia Regulations because banking upholds the principle of prudence.

Measuring the macroprudential policy stance in the euro area with a semi‐structural model

AbstractThis article proposes a methodology for measuring the macroprudential policy stance based on a forward‐looking distance‐to‐tail metric derived from a large‐scale semi‐structural model. The model reflects the dynamics of 89 significant euro area banks and 19 euro area economies and two endogenous amplification mechanisms: the real economy banking sector and solvency funding feedback loops. Our results reveal a slight tightening of the macroprudential policy stance from 2017 to the end of 2019 that partially stemmed from adjusting macroprudential capital buffers and the phase‐in of other systemwide banking sector policies reflecting macroprudential intentions. This trend is abruptly interrupted at the onset of the Covid‐19 pandemic, when pronounced macrofinancial uncertainty led to a substantial increase in tail risks and reappears in 2021. Our assessment also reveals a high degree of co‐movement in macroprudential stances across the euro area countries.

Does macroprudential policy have any side effects on the shadow economy?

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impacts of macroprudential policy on the shadow economy worldwide. Design/methodology/approach We compile a panel dataset covering 125 countries from 1990 to 2018. This paper mitigates potential endogeneity issues via two-stage least squares and the two-step generalized method of moments (GMM). Findings The robust results show that the overall tightening of macroprudential policies exerts an expansion impact on the shadow economy. Further examination of the 16 individual macroprudential policy instruments finds that loan restrictions, countercyclical buffers, surcharges for systemically important financial institutions and capital conservation buffers have positive and statistically significant effect on the shadow economy. This relationship is only present during tightening episodes of macroprudential policy as loosening episodes do not exhibit any significant impact. Finally, this paper documents the nonlinear effects of macroprudential policy. Practical implications The results suggest that the supervisory authorities may need to consider another parameter, which is the development of the shadow economy, when devising the optimal macroprudential policy responses. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is likely the first to empirically document the impact of macroprudential policy on the shadow economy. It contributes to the growing literature on the potential side effects of macroprudential policy on the macro-economy.

Do macroprudential measures increase inequality? Evidence from the euro area household survey

AbstractBorrower‐based macroprudential policies—such as caps on loan‐to‐value (LTV) ratios and debt‐service‐to‐income (DSTI) limits—contain the build‐up of systemic risk by reducing the probability and conditional impact of a crisis. While LTV/DSTI limits can increase inequality at introduction, they can dampen the increase in inequality under adverse macroeconomic conditions. The relative size of these opposing effects is an empirical question. We conduct counterfactual simulations under different macroeconomic and macroprudential policy scenarios using granular income and wealth data from the Households Finance and Consumption Survey for Ireland, Italy, Netherlands and Portugal. Simulation results show that borrower‐based measures are associated with a moderate increase in wealth inequality, while the impact on income inequality is negligible.

Financial integration and banking stability: A post-global crisis assessment

The impact of financial openness on banking stability is complex, with debate on its benefits and drawbacks. Theoretical literature suggests a positive relationship between financial openness and growth, development, and stability, but empirical studies reveal conflicting evidence. This paper examines these contradictions by analyzing data from 58 countries between 2010 and 2020. Using various measures for financial openness and stability, and a double debiased machine learning (DDML) model to control for confounders, we find that financial openness generally enhances banking stability, evidenced by lower nonperforming loan ratios, higher capital adequacy ratios, and increased bank liquidity. However, receptiveness to capital inflows heightens financial vulnerability. Policy implications suggest deeper integration with global markets promotes stability without harming bank profitability, advising against prolonged use of macroprudential policies which hinder development. Our results emphasize careful proxy selection for financial openness and stability, advocating sophisticated techniques like DDML to uncover direct effects.

Macroprudential policy effectiveness and interaction with monetary policy: Lessons from debt service-to-income cap implementation in Kazakhstan

We take advantage of the early adoption of the debt-service-to-income cap (DSTI) measure in Kazakhstan, as well as available granular information from the local credit registry to study the effects of macroprudential instruments on core financial stability parameters. Our results show that implementation of a DSTI cap of 50 % leads to around a 9 % decrease in 12 months in the amount of outstanding debt on average for the range of credits originated just around the introduction of the DSTI cap. We find that DSTI cap implementation decreased the probability of delinquency rates of loans by about 20 % in 12 months on average compared to credits granted before the realization of the DSTI cap. We provide evidence on the importance of loan size heterogeneity across time when estimating the impact of macro-prudential intervention, which is partly overlooked in the existing literature. Finally, our results suggest that macroprudential and monetary policy tools can be complementary depending on the specific business cycle developments.

The Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Financial Stability

Purpose: The general objective of the study was to investigate the effect of macroprudential policies on financial stability. Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library. Findings: The findings reveal that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to the effect of macroprudential policies on financial stability. Preliminary empirical review revealed that macroprudential policies were crucial in mitigating systemic risk and enhancing financial stability. It found that tailored approaches, considering specific economic conditions, were necessary for these policies to be effective. Coordination with other regulatory measures and continuous adaptation to evolving financial landscapes were also essential. The research highlighted the importance of robust regulatory institutions and effective enforcement mechanisms, particularly in emerging markets, to address challenges such as regulatory capture and limited institutional capacity. Overall, the study emphasized the need for a dynamic and adaptable macroprudential regulatory framework to maintain a stable and resilient financial system. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The Financial Stability Hypothesis, Regulatory Capture Theory and Agency Theory may be used to anchor future studies on macroprudential policies on financial stability. The study recommended adopting a comprehensive macroprudential regulatory framework that integrated various tools to address systemic risk. It suggested enhancing theoretical models to understand the dynamic effects of these tools and their combined impact. Practical recommendations included building strong regulatory institutions, improving data collection, and enhancing international cooperation and information sharing. Policy recommendations emphasized clear and transparent frameworks, regular policy reviews, and considering potential unintended consequences. Engaging with stakeholders to address concerns and ensure balanced regulation was also advised to support sustainable economic growth while maintaining financial stability.

What does housing collateral mean for Hong Kong economy? From the perspective of modelling and policy implication

This paper studies the housing sector of Hong Kong and the role of collateral constraint in modelling Hong Kong economy, through the lens of a small open economy DSGE model with a currency board exchange rate commitment. By estimating and evaluating the model by Indirect Inference over the sample period of 1994Q1–2018Q3, it is found that the collateral model can match data behaviour. Comparing with the tests generated from the model without collateral, collateral model can match the housing price data better, while the model without collateral fits the general price better. Since collateral constraint acts like an additional transmission channel, it enhances the impact from shocks and housing price is highly determined by housing demand. We further investigate LTV policy, finding it could be applied as macroprudential policy, especially when addressing the problem caused by increase in the US interest rate and the burst in the domestic housing demand, but the government should watch closely to the crowding out effect from export to housing demand and housing investment.

The unintended interaction effect of monetary and macroprudential policies: Evidence from China’s bank-level data

We investigate the unintended interaction effect of monetary and macroprudential policies on banks’ broad credit, using Chinese bank-level data from 2005 to 2019. According to our findings, tightening both macroprudential and monetary policies simultaneously in China expands broad credit, which differs from traditional empirical findings in other countries that such policy conditions typically result in credit contraction. We reveal that the non-deposit funding channel drives the unintended surge in broad credit under the interaction of macroprudential and monetary policy.

Macroprudential Policies and Global Banking

Macroprudential Policies and Global Banking

Open-economy macroeconomics with financial frictions: A simple model with flexible exchange rates

A simple macroeconomic model with banking, financial frictions, and flexible exchange rates is used to study the performance of fiscal, monetary and macroprudential policy combinations in response to domestic and external shocks. After characterizing the transmission process of each instrument, a diagrammatic analysis of how these policies should be used, either individually or jointly, to promote economic and financial stability, is provided. The analysis shows that whether a policy should be assigned to internal or external balance, and whether it should be contractionary or expansionary, depends not only on the nature of the shocks impinging on the economy but also on the range of tools available to policymakers and the strength of financial frictions. In particular, in response to an external financial shock, monetary policy should be assigned to external balance, and fiscal policy or macroprudential regulation to internal balance. These two policies are substitutes when used in combination with monetary policy.

Nghiên cứu tác động của chính sách an toàn vĩ mô tới khả năng sinh lời- Bằng chứng thực nghiệm tại các ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam

This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policies on the profitability of 27 Vietnamese commercial banks from 2014:Q3 to 2023:Q3. This paper uses panel data regression methods combined with tests to resolve the endogeneity issue, and robustness checks produce consistent research results. Accordingly, empirical results show that contractionary macroprudential policies have a positive impact on the profitability of Vietnamese commercial banks. The results from the quantile regression model indicate that contractionary macroprudential policies help commercial banks with low ROA quantiles improve profitability better than banks with high ROA quantiles. Based on that, this research forms several recommendations including: the banks should conduct appropriate strategies to align to macroprudential regulations; the State Bank of Vietnam is in charge of the banks in complying to these regulations.