Macroeconomic Statistics Research Articles

2008 Crisis and Effects of Monetary Expansions on Exchange Rate Determination: The Case of Turkey

With the recent economic crisis of 2008, global liquidity increased tremendously which in return, gave rise to the concerns regarding the “Currency Wars” due to consecutive monetary expansions conducted by both advanced and emerging countries. This paper, on the one hand presents the related literature and regarding theories; on the other hand, investigates the dynamics of exchange rate determination through a monetary perspective and sets forth a combined framework of Keynesian Liquidity Preference approach and PPP model that explains the exchange rate determination in a statistically significant way. Finally, macroeconomic statistics of Turkey such as inflation rate, percentage change in monetary base M2 and GDP growth that acknowledge the results of regression and VAR analyses, are presented.

Formation of SEEA Land and Soil Accounts at Regional Level

Currently used analytical tools and indicators of macroeconomic development of the country do not adequately reflect environmental concerns. We need to improve the methodological basis of macroeconomic statistics of the natural environment and its relationships with agriculture to obtain more reliable information about the condition of a particular region. The paper proposes the formulation of macroeconomic accounts from the municipal level to aggregated information at the level of region and country. For example, the assets accounts for land cover and soil resources are developed according to cartographic survey of the Borovsk district of Kaluga region. In general, the developed base map is enough to make most accounts (balance sheet) assets land and soil resources. However, for a more complete and comprehensive reflection of soil resources in physical terms it is recommended to add indicators of soil properties that represent the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of soil, like porosity, structure, pH level and microbial biomass.

Research Note: Africa by numbers: Reviewing the database approach to studying African economies

We know less about growth and poverty based on numbers in African economies than we would like to think. Numbers are soft, and data availability is sparse, sporadic, and uneven. For researchers and data users, whether engaged in inferential or descriptive statistics, the message is that studying Africa by numbers can be misleading. This research note surveys the knowledge gap and provides guidance on how to and how not to study Africa by numbers. ON 5 NOVEMBER 2010, Ghana Statistical Services announced new and revised GDP estimates. As a result, the estimated size of the economy was adjusted upward by over 60 percent, suggesting that in previous GDP estimates economic activities worth about US$13 billion had been missed. While this change in GDP was exceptionally large, it did not turn out to be an isolated case. On 7 April 2014, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics declared new GDP estimates. GDP was revised upward to $510 billion, an 89 percent increase from the old estimate. These well-publicized statistical events have led to an increase in the attention being paid to the quality of macroeconomic statistics in low-income countries, especially in African countries. The concurrent large and seemingly abrupt changes in GDP have led to a reconsideration of the quality of the data needed to evaluate basic trends in growth and poverty. At the same time, according to the African Development Bank, such substantial *Morten Jerven (morten.jerven@nmbu.no) is Associate Professor in Global Change and International Relations at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. 1. Morten Jerven, ‘For richer, for poorer: GDP revisions and Africa’s statistical tragedy’, African Affairs 112, 446 (2013), pp. 138–47. 2. Morten Jerven, ‘What does Nigeria’s new GDP number actually mean?’, African Arguments, 7 April 2014, (12 January 2016). African Affairs, 115/459, 342–358 doi: 10.1093/afraf/adw006 © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal African Society. All rights reserved Advance Access Publication 31 March 2016

EDITORIAL: Special Issue on “Recent Advances in Biodegradation, Sanitation, and Bioremediation”

Currently, India is considered as one of the fastest developing countries with impressive macroeconomic statistics. Waste generation and its con-sequences is invariably linked with the develop-mental activities, health related issues and industrial progress. According to UNICEF, almost half the population of India (around 595 million people), defecate in the open. India accounts for 90 per cent of the people in South Asia and 59 per cent of the 1.1 billion people in the world who practise open defecation and thereby contributing nearly 65,000 tonnes of faeces into the environment each day (http://unicef.in/Whatwedo/11/Eliminate-Open-Defecation). Open defecation in India, poses a very serious threat to the health and hygiene issues, especially to the children.Keeping in view the need for looking into the scientific and technical advancements in the field of biodegrada-tion and sanitation, in 16-17 December 2014, DRL organized a national conference on “Recent Advances in Biodegradation of Human Wastes”. Sub-sequently, it was decided to bring some of the high quality technical papers presented during the conference, into a form of proceedings as a journal special issue. This issue contains a total of twelve articles.The editors take this opportunity to convey their sincere thanks to all the contributors for submitting their exciting research or review work for bringing the conference proceedings as special journal is-sue. The financial support provided by the DRDO and the DBT, Govt of India is also gratefully acknowledged. We sincerely believe that this syn-thesis of scientific information on biodegradation, sanitation and bioremediation shall be useful for the researchers and policy makers associated with solid waste management.

TOURISM MARKET: PRICING ISSUES

Article retracted The article is devoted to the actual topic of our time - the development of tourism services. The development of tourism is the leading technology trend dynamics maroon economic caused social restructuring of modern society. Macroeconomic Financial Statistics conrms the minimum amplitude of cyclical uctuations in the service sector, which turns it into countercyclical tool. In the Russian Federation the economic problem of a state policy in the sphere of tourist services is defined - to having turned tourism in competitive, innovative, countercyclical, and highly protable sector of national business. In article pricing factors are dened and are dened key of them, responsible for the cost of a tourist product. This work answers such questions of travel company as: denition of optimum group, formation of a transport tariff, structure of a tourist product on the main and accompanying services and their range, ways of sale. A practical advice by calculation of expenses is given. Correlation and regression and cluster analyses acted as research tools when performing work. In article the conclusion is drawn that the main methods of marketing management of pricing in the market of tourist services are: transition to the unified technology of granting a service on the basis of ISO; intensication and integration of the sphere of production and services

Not all jobs are created equal: How not to misread the labour force statistics in Serbia

In this paper we will closely examine a well-publicised attempt to proclaim the recent recovery in employment as revealed by the Labour Force Survey 'an illusion' and to discard the Serbian LFS data as 'unreliable', and 'suspicious'. We will present and assess all the main arguments of the LFS's denialists: comparative evidence on employment elasticity with respect to growth, major shifts in employment since 2008, as well as the alleged inconsistencies between the employment trend and trends in social security contribution revenues and personal consumption. We will demonstrate that all the main claims of the denialists are methodologically irrelevant and based on incorrect calculations and distortion of facts and terminology. We will continue to explain the development of the LFS, its international and European standards, and emphasise the growing significance of the LFS that extends far beyond its contribution to macroeconomic statistics.

Can Statistical Capacity Building Help Reduce Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries?

Few papers have attempted to assess the role of “capacity,” especially in the area of macroeconomic statistics. Consequently, we make an attempt to advance this literature through the construction of a “statistical capacity building index,” and then test its explanatory power on the cyclicality of government spending. Using panel data from 62 developing countries, we find evidence that improvements in this index are associated with less procyclicality of government spending over the period 1990–2012; with the significance of this relationship dependent upon the quality of administrative and technical capacity of budgetary institutions.

Can Statistical Capacity Building Help Reduce Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries?

Few papers have attempted to assess the role of 'capacity,' especially in the area of macroeconomic statistics. Consequently, we make an attempt to advance this literature through the construction of a 'statistical capacity building index,' and then test its explanatory power on the cyclicality of government spending. Using panel data from 62 developing countries, we find evidence that improvements in this index are associated with less procyclicality of government spending over the period 1990-2012; with the significance of this relationship dependent upon the quality of administrative and technical capacity of budgetary institutions.

Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts?

Economic performance is a key component of most election forecasts. When fitting models, however, most forecasters unwittingly assume that the actual state of the economy, a state best estimated by the multiple periodic revisions to official macroeconomic statistics, drives voter behavior. The difference in macroeconomic estimates between revised and original data vintages can be substantial, commonly over 100% (two-fold) for economic growth estimates, making the choice of which data release to use important for the predictive validity of a model. We systematically compare the predictions of four forecasting models for numerous US presidential elections using real-time and vintage data. We find that newer data are not better data for election forecasting: forecasting error increases with data revisions. This result suggests that voter perceptions of economic growth are influenced more by media reports about the economy, which are based on initial economic estimates, than by the actual state of the economy.

Relevance of Uncertainty on the Volatility and Trading Volume in the US Treasury Bond Futures Market

​This paper studies the impact of uncertainty on the investors' reactions to news on macroeconomic statistics. With daily data on realized volatility and trading volume, we show that the investors in the US Treasury bond futures market react significantly stronger to US macroeconomic news in times of low macroeconomic, financial and political uncertainty. We also find that investors are more sensitive to the uncertainty in the financial market compared to the macroeconomic and political uncertainties. Our results might partly explain the sudden freeze and low liquidity in some financial markets during the latest financial crisis.

Socio-Economic Scale (SES) as a Measure of Economic Well-Being: A Case in Barangay Lumbia, Cagayan De Oro City, Philippines

In recent years, there have been increasing concerns on the adequacy of traditional macroeconomic statistics, like gross domestic product (GDP) as measures of current and future living conditions. Cases that made GDP an inaccurate measure for economic wellbeing rouses inquiry to utilize the information gathered from Community Based Monitoring System (CBMS) of the 629 respondents of 30 sitios of Barangay Lumbia. The barangay is one of the upland barangays in Cagayan de Oro City, Philippines. Faster pace of economic activity is visible nearer the barangay hall or the city main road where schools, barangay hospitals, church and few business establishments are situated. Few kilometers away from the main political and business zone, activities are slower and laidback while support services are either insufficient or non-existent. Study explore on the socioeconomic condition of the residents of the 30 sitios by looking into the four socioeconomic components: poverty level, income, educational attainment and housing tenure. To further the analysis, the research derived the standardized score of the four socioeconomic components and combined them into a single socioeconomic scale normalized to a base of 100. Socioeconomic scores are reported on a seven-point categorical scale. Findings indicate that residents in the sitios with poor socioeconomic status as sitios with low socioeconomic scale. Results further signifies that the greatest number of the residents in the community has low capability to collectively sustain from shocks and are not able to take advantage to opportunities given the various resources in the community. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n2p103

GDP Revisions and Updating Statistical Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reports from the Statistical Offices in Nigeria, Liberia and Zimbabwe

The quality of economic statistics in Africa has been likened to a statistical tragedy. Currently many statistical systems in Africa are being updated. This report from the statistical offices in Nigeria, Liberia and Zimbabwe documents that base year, data and methods used to generate GDP estimates currently date from 1990, 1992 and 1994. There is a growing need for macroeconomic statistics, but a rebasing of GDP estimates is costly and time consuming. The work to update economic statistics in Nigeria and Zimbabwe is still ongoing, while efforts to generate an authoritative estimate of the Liberian economy have proved unsuccessful.

Registration of land for the common agricultural policy management: potentials for evaluation of environmental policy integration

The impact assessment of the environmental policy integration into the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the EU requires combination of data on bio-physical and economical conditions as well as data on agricultural practice. A major restriction for comparative assessment is that data sources are collected, managed and distributed by different institutions and those datasets are not harmonised across Europe. The challenge is to allocate macro-economic statistics to the farm on landscape level. In this paper we investigate the potentials for use of the CAP administrative datasets in the development of environmental indicators. The basic concepts of the Integrated Administrative and Control Systems (IACS) datasets and common core model are described. This paper gives an example on the development of High Nature Value (HNV) farmland indicators based on the use of data from the administrative register.

宏观经济统计数据匹配性评价—以新疆维吾尔自治区为例

统计数据是政府部门对社会经济运行情况监督、决策分析等管理手段的重要依据，而统计数据的质量关乎着政府部门管理措施的成效，因此对统计数据质量的检验成为政府部门和经济理论研究者共同关注的话题。匹配性评估是统计数据质量评估重要内容，本文基于国内生产总值(GDP)、社会消费品零售总额(LS)、全社会固定资产投资总额(INV)、城镇居民人均可支配收入(UPDI)四个指标，通过综合时间序列和联立方程方法对四个指标的统计数据进行匹配性分析，得出新疆宏观经济统计数据匹配性有待提高的结论，并给出建议。 Statistics is a government department of social and economic operation of supervision and man-agement means such as decision analysis of important basis, and the quality of statistical data about the effectiveness of government management, so the quality of statistical data of the test as government departments and economic theory researchers on topics of mutual interest. Suitability assessment is an important content of statistical data quality assessment, this article is based on gross domestic product (GDP), the total retail sales of social consumer goods (LS), the whole society fixed asset investment (INV), urban per capita disposable income (UPDI) four indexes, through the integrated time series and simultaneous equation method to match the statistical data of four indicators analysis, concluded that Xinjiang macroeconomic statistics matching sexual needs to improve, and give advice.

Measuring energy efficiency: Is energy intensity a good evidence base?

There is a widespread assumption in energy statistics and econometrics that energy intensity and energy efficiency are equivalent measures of energy performance of economies. The paper points to the discrepancy between the engineering concept of energy efficiency and the energy intensity as it is understood in macroeconomic statistics. This double discrepancy concerns definitions (while engineering concept of energy efficiency is based on the thermodynamic definition, energy intensity includes economic measures) and use. With regard to the latter, the authors conclude that energy intensity can only provide indirect and delayed evidence of technological and engineering energy efficiency of energy conversion processes, which entails shortcomings for management and policymaking. Therefore, we suggest to stop considering subsectoral, sectoral and other levels of energy intensities as aggregates of lower-level energy efficiency. It is suggested that the insufficiency of energy intensity indicators can be compensated with the introduction of thermodynamic indicators describing energy efficiency at the physical, technological, enterprise, sub-sector, sectoral and national levels without references to any economic or financial parameters. Structured statistical data on thermodynamic efficiency is offered as a better option for identifying break-through technologies and technological bottle-necks that constrain efficiency advancements. It is also suggested that macro-level thermodynamic indicators should be based on the thermodynamic first law efficiency and the energy quality problem may be left to enterprise-level thermoeconomic optimization.

The Great Escape? The Contribution of the Empire to Portugal's Economic Growth, 1500-1800

Newly assembled macroeconomic statistics for early modern Portugal reveal one of Europe’s most vigorous colonial traders and at the same time one of its least successful growth records. Using an estimated model in the spirit of Allen (2009) we conclude that intercontinental trade had a substantial and increasingly positive impact on economic growth. In the heyday of colonial expansion, eliminating the economic links to empire would have reduced Portugal’s per capita income by roughly a fifth. While the empire helped the domestic economy it was not sufficient to annul the tendency towards decline in relation to Europe’s advanced core which set in from the 17th century onwards. We conclude that the explanation for Portugal’s long-term backwardness must be sought primarily in domestic conditions.

The great escape? The contribution of the empire to Portugal's economic growth, 1500–1800

Abstract Newly assembled macroeconomic statistics for early modern Portugal reveal one of Europe's most vigorous colonial traders but one of its least successful growth records. Was the empire a blessing or a drag to the economy? Using an estimated dynamic model, we conclude that intercontinental trade had a substantial and increasingly positive impact on economic growth. In the heyday of colonial expansion, eliminating the economic links to empire would have reduced Portugal's per capita income by at least a fifth. While the empire helped the domestic economy, it was not sufficient to annul the tendency of the latter toward decline in relation to Europe's advanced core, which began to set in from the seventeenth century onward, but only became definite after 1800. We conclude that the explanation for Portugal's long-term backwardness must be sought primarily in domestic conditions.

Bank consumer lending in Russia from the point of view of foreign experience: Competition and ways of development

Macroeconomic statistics of the bank sector of Russian consumer credit is analyzed, the consumer credit experience of the United States and Great Britain is studied and compared with Russian indices, competition features are studied in the area, its influence on the development of high marginal lending in Russia is estimated, and the prospects of bank consumer crediting are determined in the article.

Are inflation expectations in Russia forward-looking?

The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of inflation expectations in Russia. The significance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinflation measures introduced by the Central Bank. This paper studies the degree to which inflation expectations appear forward–looking and backward–looking. We estimate the Hybrid Phillips curve that includes proxies for both backward– and forward–looking components of inflation expectations. Applying generalised method of moments we asses, which of the two components play a predominant role in determining Russian inflation. The estimates are based on the monthly macroeconomic statistics for the period 1999–2013. Our analysis suggests that to a large extent inflation expectations in Russia remain backward–looking. Hence, it is recommended to take action to enhance agents confidence in the Central Banks policy before switching to aggressive inflation targeting.

The (Non-) Effect of Unemployment Benefits: Variations in the Effect of Unemployment on Life-Satisfaction Between EU Countries

A negative effect of unemployment on subjective well-being has been demonstrated in many studies casting substantial doubt about assumptions of decisions of individuals to choose unemployment voluntarily as the utility-maximising option. These studies have been extended to take into account national-level context factors which have been shown to moderate the relationship between unemployment and life-satisfaction. So far most studies focussed mainly on economic indicators, although demographic and cultural differences between countries also affect how unemployment is perceived. An important variable that is not included in the majority of proper multilevel studies is the extent of unemployment benefits. Traditional micro-economic approaches argue that more extensive provisions should reduce the cost of unemployment and therefore reduce the motivation to regain employment—reflected in a reduction of the negative impact of unemployment. This study investigates this claim by using European Values Study data from all European Union countries and Norway as well as harmonised macroeconomic statistics from Eurostat. It finds that the effect of unemployment on life-satisfaction is indeed moderated by economic and demographic national-level factors, but not by unemployment benefits. To what extent unemployment reduces life-satisfaction varies greatly between countries, but appears to not be influenced by the extent of state unemployment provisions.