Macroeconomic Outlook Research Articles

The Science and Art of Communicating Fan Chart Uncertainty: The case of Inflation Outcome in Sierra Leone

The use of macro-econometric modelling technique has become a norm for policy decisions in central banks and in particular, the Bank of Sierra Leone. This study has leveraged on the technicalities of scientific and artistic approaches of assessing risks around point / baseline forecast; this in general makes it more convincing for probability confidence bands to be used in explaining uncertainty that surround point forecast in particular. In the case of this study, the use of the Box-Jenkins ARIMAX model has made it possible to highlight the relevance of Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) like Exchange Rate in alerting signals about early turning point of inflation outcome, both in terms of the uncertainty and risks surrounding its projections. With the derived (scientific) probability distribution of risks (30%, 60% and 90%), it was possible for the study outcome to unearth vast amount of information from the Inflation Fan Chart, particularly with respect to the art of providing balanced assessment of policy framework needed to communicate the BSL’s price stability objective. While the use of Fan Chart is hailed as a very relevant tool, the paper also recommend the use of other model approaches like Scenario and Sensitivity analysis, also considered relevant in providing leading evidence of balancing risks surrounding macroeconomic outlook.

Ecuador

On September 30, 2020, the IMF Executive Board approved a 27-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with exceptional access (SDR 4,615 million, 661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) to help Ecuador restore macroeconomic stability and pursue the unfinished structural agenda from the previous program. High frequency indicators point to improvements in economic activity after bottoming out in Q2, while oil prices have been declining relative to earlier assumptions, leaving the macroeconomic outlook broadly unchanged over the medium term.

Can Zero-Coupon Bond Yield Curve Predict Economic Growth? – The Case of China

Since China's economic reform in 1978, the country's economic system has foreseen rapid evolvements, particularly in issuing debt securities by the Chinese central government to financing its drastic economic growth (Loo & Lqbal, 2019). This research study examines the zero-coupon bond yield curve's predictive power on China's GDP growth rate by adopting the Nelson-Siegel (1987) dynamic yield curve model. This research study adopts various approaches to refining the Nelson-Siegel (1987) model to enhance its predictive power on future economic activities, drawing upon the modifications undertaken by Diebold & Li's (2006) study to examining the constructed yield curve in accordance with the three latent factors of level, slope and curvature of the entire yield curve. A 67 period of zero-coupon bond yields is gathered between Q3 2002 and Q1 2019 quarterly from zero-coupon bond maturities of 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, finding that all types of zero-coupon bond maturities to exhibit similar yield curve movements across short, intermediary and long term durations. A multiple regression model was used to examine the correlation coefficient between the three latent factors and China's GDP, finding a significant relationship in the slope factor. A relationship was also found between the level and slope factors with a significance of 0.854, whereby the average rates between the two variables were calculated under the augmented Dicky Fuller test to ensure all factors are at stationary states to enhance the accuracy of future testing. The researcher also performed a least-squares equation (OLS) test to addressing the identified multicollinearity problem aforementioned, finding the R-squared value of 29.6%. Which suggested the level and curvature factors of the constructed yield curve would accurately explain 29.6% of China's GDP growth rates. To further examine the predictive power of the constructed yield curve in accordance to Nelson-Siegel's (1987) dynamic model, an out-of-sample forecasting method is employed with the out-of-sample size of 40 periods between Q3 2002 and Q2 2012 against 27 periods between Q3 and Q1 2019. The out-of-sample regression test founded an R squared value of 11.4,% suggesting that in sample forecasts contained higher predictive power to China's GDP growth based on the constructed yield curve. Furthermore, the out-of-sample forecast results show no significant relationship between the level and curvature factors, further reaffirming the argument that the yield curve in sample forecasts would better predict future economic activities. The research findings were consistent with findings from other studies conducted by Diebold & Li (2006); Hvozdenska (2015), and Campbell & Thompson (2008), whereby the spread of the yield curve constructed by the Nelson-Siegel (1987) dynamic model showed a strong relationship between China's GDP growth and the produced yield curve, representing strong predictive power and offers valuable insights to addressing the identified research gap where minimal research studies have explored the predictive power of China's zero-coupon bond yields in relation to the macroeconomic outlook. Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Yield curve, Zero-coupon bond, Maturity, Regression, Dynamic model. DOI: 10.7176/JEP/11-24-02 Publication date: December 31 st 2020

Cyclical lending standards: A structural analysis

Lending standards are a direct measure of credit conditions. We use the micro data merged from three separate sources to construct this measure and document that an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, rather than banks' balance sheet positions, was an important reason that a majority of banks tightened bank lending standards during the Great Recession. Our extensive data analysis disciplines how we introduce credit frictions in the banking sector into a macroeconomic model. The model estimation reveals that an exogenous shock to credit supply drives cyclical lending standards and accounts for a significant portion of fluctuations in bank loans and aggregate output.

TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION TOWARDS EMERGING MARKETS: A COMPARATIVE PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

This study aims to reveal how absorbable foreign direct investment (FDI) and macroeconomic performance affect technology diffusion along with patent applications, imports and human capital in 14 selected emerging markets (EMs) between 1980-2017. To do this, a new approach for indexing macroeconomic performance is suggested and a strongly balanced panel was investigated with two different econometric approaches. Key findings are as follows: (i) suggested macroeconomic performance index performs well under pooled mean group and dynamic common correlated effects estimations and proves the importance of macroeconomic outlook for developing countries, (ii) the positive effect of human capital on total factor productivity turns to negative when common factors are included in the estimation, meaning that international technology spillovers are a key source of productivity increases for developing countries.

Malawi

Presidential elections in June 2020, a re-run of the canceled 2019 elections, resulted in a change of government, with President Chakwera securing 59 percent of the vote. The new administration is facing a rapid acceleration of COVID-19 cases in Malawi and adverse spillovers from continued deterioration of the global and regional economic situation, significantly worsening the macroeconomic outlook. Consequently, an additional urgent balance of payments need of 2.9 percent of GDP has arisen—bringing the total external financing gap in 2020 to 5.0 percent of GDP. The authorities have requested an additional disbursement of 52.1 percent of quota (SDR 72.31 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), where 30 percent of the disbursement would finance the government budget. This follows the May 1, 2020 Board approval of a 47.9 percent of quota RCF disbursement (without budget support). The authorities have cancelled the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and expressed a strong interest in discussing a new ECF—better aligned with their new long-term growth and reform strategy—once conditions permit.

Republic of Madagascar

A further deterioration of the global environment and a deepening of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have worsened the macroeconomic outlook significantly, with growth now projected to be negative in 2020. As a result, urgent balance of payments needs arising from the pandemic are now estimated at 4.2 percent of GDP (compared to 1.8 percent), and the authorities have requested an additional disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 50 percent of quota (SDR 122.2 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF. This follows Board approval on April 3, 2020 of the authorities’ request for 50 percent of quota, which took place before the annual access of the RCF was doubled to 100 percent of quota on April 6, 2020. This additional request, if approved, will bring total disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020. The authorities have also requested temporary debt servicing relief under the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, supported by the G-20 and Paris Club.

IFRS 9 transition effect on equity in a post bank recovery environment: the case of Slovenia

On January 1, 2018, IFRS 9 became effective in the EU. It introduced the expected credit loss model to allow for timely recognition of credit losses, estimated not only on the actual credit loss experience but also on forward looking information related to current loan portfolio. Although the transition to IFRS 9 should lead to increased impairments and decrease in banks’ equity, this effect is ambiguous in the settings characterised by combined effects of optimistic macroeconomic outlook and strong regulatory intervention related to extensive loan portfolio restructuring. This paper investigates day-one transition effect of IFRS 9 on level of loan impairments and total equity of banks in Slovenia, Eurozone country, which barely averted international bailout in 2013 by extensive state assisted bank restructuring. The comparative analysis is done on banks that transferred deteriorated loan portfolio to the state’s Bank Assets Management Company and all other banks. In line with expectations we find that banks without extensive asset portfolio improvements recognised additional loan impairments on transition to IFRS 9, whereas the opposite effect is observed for banks which performed state-assisted loan portfolio restructuring. Our study provides additional insight on the effect of institutional and regulatory setting on IFRS 9 implementation effects.

Capital requirements and banks performance under Basel-III: A comparative analysis of Australian and British banks

This study examines whether the capital requirements under Basel III are effective in enhancing the profitability and efficiency of the banking sector. Drawing on a sample of the largest commercial banks from the UK and Australia over the period from 2000 to 2019, we employ the FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) and DOLS (Dynamics OLS) estimation approaches. The results indicate that stricter capital ratio increases operating earnings, whist it fails to improve bank profitability and bank efficiency. Our findings cast doubts on the effectiveness of tax policy in the observed banks. Further empirical testing shows an optimal capital structure in which the banks can achieve the best performance. Interestingly, these optimal ratios are broadly in line with the minimum common equity ratio required under Basel-III. The macroeconomic outlook also contributes to the performance of British and Australian banks. British banks are found to perform well under inflationary pressure and higher policy rates, contrary to the Australian banks whose performance deteriorates. Our results hold across different samples, efficiency, and profitability measures and various estimation models.

Kyrgyz Republic

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the macroeconomic outlook. The authorities have launched a health care contingency plan and an initial package of economic measures, together totaling $31 million (0.4 percent of GDP), and are preparing a second, larger package of economic measures of about $400 million (5.2 percent of GDP). To help address an urgent balance of payments need arising from the pandemic, estimated at about $500 million, the authorities request an additional purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million) and a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF. This follows Board approval on March 26, 2020 of the authorities’ earlier request for the same amounts, before the doubling of the annual access on emergency financing under the “exogenous shock” window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to 100 percent of quota was approved on April 6, 2020. This additional request will bring the total purchases under the RFI and the disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020.

Republic of Tajikistan

Macroeconomic developments in 2019 were favorable, although the outlook was challenging owing to large fiscal and external imbalances. While still weak, the banking sector was recovering from the 2015-16 shocks. Against this background, trade and transportation disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have had a severe impact on the macroeconomic outlook. Remittances have dropped sharply, and government revenues have declined while health and social spending is being ramped up. The impact of the shock is expected to be the greatest in 2020Q2-Q3.

Senegal

The COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the macroeconomic outlook for Senegal’s economy. Containment measures to avoid the propagation of the virus, lower external demand, reduced remittances, and the sudden stop of travel and tourism are having a significant impact on growth and generating an urgent budgetary and balance-of-payments (BOP) needs. The authorities have taken strong actions to address the pandemic by declaring a state of emergency, closing schools, suspending flights, banning public gatherings, and imposing a curfew. They are implementing a comprehensive plan to upgrade the health system and contain the economic impact, including by setting up a national solidarity fund and providing targeted support to vulnerable households and firms.

Commodities in Current Macroeconomic Outlook. A Possible Hedge against Inflation

The recent global economic recession pushed investment funds and other players in the investment world closer to tangible assets, luring them back to commodities and especially to metals and agricultural markets. As the present macro environment supports commodities investing – especially investments in agriculture, thanks to very low interest rates, weaker currencies, a commodity boom, and as a hedge against global inflation - the level of funds invested in commodities increased by over 220% in the 2006-2011 period when compared to the previous five years’ time (2000-2005). Meanwhile, estimates of an increasing global population, rather extreme weather patterns observed in recent years, decreasing crop yields and the extraordinary growth in global ethanol and biodiesel markets, focused the attention on cereals, sugar cane, rapeseed and soy, as concerns of a possible very tight supply situation might happen any time.

Corporate risk-taking in developed countries: The influence of economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions

Using 74,974 firm-year observations covering 15 developed European countries over the time period 1999–2017, this paper explores the effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate risk-taking. The findings indicate that firms become more risk averse with an economic policy uncertainty shock. The relationship is valid under idiosyncratic and earnings volatility risk measures, regardless of whether the macroeconomic condition is favorable or not. Moreover, the competition level in the industry is a crucial factor moderating the effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate risk-taking. Firms operating in concentrated industries decrease their risk-taking. Conversely, firms operating in highly competitive industries do not change their risk-taking with an economic policy uncertainty shock, no matter what the market condition is. However, financial constraint affects the risk aversion of firms. In fact, when the macroeconomic outlook is unfavorable, financially constrained firms diminish risk-taking under all competition levels. On the other hand, the favorable stock market conditions encourage managers of financially constrained firms and reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate risk-taking. All in all, the results support the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on risk-taking, conditioned on the macroeconomic outlook in the country and the competition in the industry.

Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis

Lending standards are a direct measure of credit conditions. We use the micro data merged from three separate sources to construct this measure and document that an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, rather than banks' balance sheet positions, was an important reason that a majority of banks tightened bank lending standards during the Great Recession. Our extensive data analysis disciplines how we introduce credit frictions in the banking sector into a macroeconomic model. The model estimation reveals that an exogenous shock to credit supply drives cyclical lending standards and accounts for a significant portion of fluctuations in bank loans and aggregate output. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Accounting Treatment of Credit Loss Allowances Amid COVID-19: Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) Versus IFRS 9 Expected Credit Loss (ECL)

Shortly before the COVID-19 crisis emerged worldwide accounting standard boards reformed the accounting requirements for the modeling and the accounting of credit loss allowances. The Financial Standards Board (FASB) issues new requirements effective 2020 and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) IFRS 9 becoming effective 2018. The crisis possible evolving from COVID-19 will be the first Locums test for the recent set-up expected credit loss model, which originally emerged out of another crisis the Global Financial Crisis in 2009. This article will provide an overview of this new expected credit loss model. This paper starts with a synopsis and explains main differences of the new credit models. The main conclusion is that the expected credit loss model although reflecting management approach the model once implemented must be mandatorily steadily pursued without change. All available information management is aware must be incorporated into the model. Therefore, companies cannot increase credit loss allowance based on prudence principle, but the change of macroeconomic outlook is a main driver of the credit model.

Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC

I study the forecast updating behavior of Federal Open Market Committee members to assess how individual views on appropriate monetary policy translate into disagreement about the macroeconomic outlook. I match the cross-sectional skewness in interest rates with its inflation and unemployment forecast counterparts and apply standard panel techniques to the data. I observe that hawkish minority voters tend to forecast higher inflation rates relative to the consensus view on the future economy. A higher degree of skewness in the individual inflation forecasts can be attributed mainly to regional Federal Reserve presidents’ minority views on appropriate policy. When investigating potential forecast exaggeration due to strategic motives, however, I find significant differences in the forecast updating behavior neither for Fed governors as opposed to regional Fed presidents nor for members voting with the majority as opposed to voting against the majority nor for stayers and switchers with respect to individual monetary policy stance.

Excessive Corporate Liquidity and Stock Return: Evidence from the Indian Business Environment

The article examines the determinants, financial characteristics and the stock returns of Indian firms which held excessive liquidity during the post-meltdown period of 2008–2012 in the backdrop of an uncertain business environment. The research design is essentially based on a model developed by Opler, Pinkowitz, Stulz, and Williamson (1999) adjusted for variable specification necessitated by Indian conditions and data availability. The model is used to identify the transitory and persistent excess liquidity firms. Quarterly, bi-yearly and yearly stock returns of excess liquidity firms are compared with the returns of non-excess liquidity control firms. In India where banks play a major role in financing in view of the illiquid debt market, speculative motive plays a dominant role in holding excess liquidity. Build-up of excess liquidity arising from the relatively strong economic performance of earlier years is utilized conservatively to decrease leverage rather than gear up investment when investment opportunity is depressed due to a weak macroeconomic outlook and structural factors. Greater liquidity and longer holdings do not generate lesser returns for varying periods till 1 year compared to a portfolio of non-excess liquidity control firms. At variance with the existing literature the results indicate that marginal value of liquidity in terms of stockholders’ returns does not decline with higher or longer liquidity holding when the investment environment is unfavourable.

Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs

Central banks’ announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave guidance between 2011:III and 2012:IV, these two interpretations coexisted despite a consensus on low expected rates. We rationalize these facts in a New-Keynesian model where heterogeneous beliefs introduce a trade-off in forward guidance policy: leveraging on the optimism of those who believe in monetary easing comes at the cost of inducing excess pessimism in non-believers. (JEL D83, E12, E43, E52, E58, E65)

Enhancing thematic competence by exposure to professional discourse in economic translation1

This paper discusses a situation in a course on economic translation for BA students, and tries to show how exposure to professional discourse helps master the “lingo” of the professional community. An experiment was carried out to show what impact, if any, exposure to professional discourse has on the terminological and phraseological quality as well as on the overall acceptability of translation in this domain. In controlled classroom settings, students were assigned to translate a text on macroeconomic outlook from English to Czech. The first group of participants was asked to translate the text immediately. The second group was first exposed to three TV interviews on the same topic, and then asked to translate the text. The third group was presented with three newspaper articles on the same topic, and then asked to translate the text. The student translations were then assessed with respect to selected rich points to see if there were any differences between the groups. The results suggest that exposure to professional discourse in written form increases the use of idiomatic terminology and phraseology as well as the overall acceptability of the translation while the oral form only increases the overall acceptability of the translation. The potential of using such exercises in specialized translation classroom is discussed.