Macroeconomic Impact Research Articles

The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States

Because federal infrastructure spending largely takes the form of grants to state governments, the macroeconomic impact of such packages depends on the share of federal grants that “passes through” to actual infrastructure spending done by states. A low degree of pass-through would tend to mute the economic impact from federal grants, reflecting a crowd-out effect on state spending. We first revisit Knight’s (2002) influential finding of near-zero pass-through (perfect crowd out) of federal highway grants. That result is found to be specification-sensitive and is reversed completely in a longer sample, with estimates implying dollar-for-dollar pass-through of grants to spending. We then extend the analysis to allow for dynamics. We find a contemporaneous pass-through effect of about 1 and a longer-run cumulative effect of around 1.3. In the parlance of public finance, the flypaper effect is strong.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks: What do the Indian Data Say?

This article examines the impact of fiscal policy shocks on a set of macroeconomic variables in India, using a seasonally adjusted quarterly dataset for the period 2003–2019. The Gregory-Hansen residual-based test for cointegration and the vector error correction model (VECM) are applied, and impulse responses based on a recursive identification scheme (Cholesky decomposition) is used to assess the effects of a gross tax revenue shock and a government spending shock on economic activity, while accounting for the possibility of structural breaks. The findings indicate that an unexpected fiscal policy shock has an immediate expansionary impact on real GDP and a sudden positive effect on inflation (WPI) and the repo rate; and that the impact is permanent and away from the zero equilibrium. The careful design of policies by the central bank and the government as crucial macroeconomic stabilisation tools is imperative. JEL Classification: E6, H20, H30

Macro-Economic Impact of Policies for Controlling Fossil Energy Consumption in China

This paper analyzes the macro-economic impact of controlling fossil energy consumption in China by using a social accounting matrix framework. The empirical results show that, first, restricting the exploitation of fossil energy resources will lead to a decline in the output of other production activities, thereby reducing the factor income and the living standards of residents. Second, improving energy efficiency can promote increased output in other production sectors, and raise factor returns and residents’ living standards. Third, raising the price of energy products will result in higher costs of the entire society. The stronger the dependence on the energy sector, the greater the increase in the industrial cost. Therefore, the government should increase investment in energy efficiency, keep to energy intensity constraints, restrict the extraction amount of energy resources, and reasonably control energy prices based on market environmental factors.

How new Fed corporate bond programs cushioned the Covid-19 recession

In the financial crisis and recession induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, many investment-grade firms became unable to borrow from securities markets. In response, the Fed not only reopened its commercial paper funding facility but also announced it would purchase newly issued and seasoned corporate bonds rated as investment grade before the Covid pandemic. We assess the effectiveness of this program using long sample periods, spanning the Great Depression through the Great and Covid Recessions. Findings indicate that the announcement of corporate bond backstop facilities helped stop risk premia from rising further than they had by late-March 2020. In doing so, these backstop facilities limited the role of external finance premia in amplifying the macroeconomic impact of the Covid pandemic. Nevertheless, the corporate bond programs blend the roles of the Federal Reserve in conducting monetary policy via its balance sheet, acting as a lender of last resort, and pursuing credit policies.

Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case

The purpose of this work is to investigate the influence of macroeconomics determinants on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Italian banking system over the period 2008Q3–2020Q4. We mainly contribute to the literature by being the first empirical article to study this relationship in the Italian context in the recent period, thus providing fresh evidence on the macroeconomic impact on NPLs, i.e., on the credit risk of Italian banks. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model, we are able to investigate the short and long-run effects of macroeconomic factors on NPLs. The empirical findings show that gross domestic product and public debt have a negative impact on NPLs. On the other hand, we find that the unemployment rate and domestic credit positively influence impaired loans. Finally, we find evidence of the “gamble for resurrection” approach, i.e., Italian banks tend to support “zombie firms”.

Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Islamic and Conventional Stock Indices: Fresh Evidence from Bangladesh

The macroeconomics and traditional stock market nexus is widely explored in the extant literature, but few studies have focused on the impact of macroeconomics on Islamic stock markets. In fact, to our knowledge, only one or two prior studies have looked into both conventional and Islamic stock markets at the same time to see the impact of macroeconomics for comparison purposes. However, these studies have found differing views. Besides, no study has looked into the issue from the standpoint of Bangladesh. To close the gap, the study primarily explores the effect of macroeconomic variables on Islamic and conventional stock indices. Also, it looks at which index (Islamic or conventional) is more susceptible to macroeconomic shocks. The DSEX Shariah Index and the DSE Broad Index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) are chosen as Islamic and conventional stock indices, respectively. In contrast, inflation rate, money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate are selected as proxies of macroeconomic variables. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Granger causality approaches for the monthly data from January 2014 to June 2021, our findings indicate that aggregate money supply has a positive long-term influence on both Islamic and conventional indices, whereas interest rates have a negative impact. Conversely, in the short run, the interest rate has a favorable impact on both indices. However, inflation only has a short-term impact on the Islamic stock index. Overall, the findings suggest that both indices behave almost analogously with the macroeconomic variables. Therefore, Islamic investors can undoubtedly choose Islamic stocks for their portfolios without sacrificing significant financial losses. Our study also provides some vital policy implications. Since our study finds a strong link between macroeconomics and stock markets, we urge the monetary authority to align their policies with those of the stock markets in Bangladesh because there were previously some inconsistencies in the policies of the monetary authority and stock markets, which appeared to be partly responsible for the recent stock market crash in Bangladesh in 2010-2011.

Macroeconomic and Trade Policy Impacts Based on DSGE Model

Macroeconomic and Trade Policy Impacts Based on DSGE Model

Macroeconomic and Trade Policy Impacts Based on DSGE Model

Macroeconomic and Trade Policy Impacts Based on DSGE Model

The Macroeconomic Impact of Euro Area Labour Market Reforms: Evidence from a Narrative Panel VAR

The Macroeconomic Impact of Euro Area Labour Market Reforms: Evidence from a Narrative Panel VAR

Initial Conditions and Cross-Country Macroeconomic Impact during COVID-19

Initial Conditions and Cross-Country Macroeconomic Impact during COVID-19

Macroeconomic Impacts of Water Allocation Under Droughts. Accounting for Global Supply Chains in a Multiregional Context

Macroeconomic Impacts of Water Allocation Under Droughts. Accounting for Global Supply Chains in a Multiregional Context

Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations∗

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. Webuild a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected revenue impact, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of nearly 2,500 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. We analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further separating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added tax. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence

This paper measures the macroeconomic impact of recent political crisis, protest and uprisings in Africa with the generalized synthetic control method and evaluates the role played by natural resource dependence on the modulation of the impact. We find that political crisis, protests and uprisings have a significant and negative impact on economic growth while the impact is positive on investment and price level. For economic growth, the deviation of the actual series from the counterfactual is negative, instantaneous, persistent and highly significant; indicating non-negligible costs of the shock. Indeed, dependence on natural resources amplifies the negative effect of political crisis, protests and uprisings on GDP. Finally, the more the treated country depends on natural resources, the more it becomes resilient from the investment losses caused by political crisis.

Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 and Universal Transfer Programs: The Case of Korea

Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 and Universal Transfer Programs: The Case of Korea

The macroeconomic impact of school enrolments: time-series evidence from Greece

The macroeconomic impact of school enrolments: time-series evidence from Greece

The Effect of Macroeconomic and Population of Muslim Tourist’s Country of Origin on Tourist Arrival to Indonesia

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and create Muslim-friendly services, facilities and infrastructure to support the performance of government and entrepreneurs in the tourism sector, as well as to attract Muslim tourists in order to contribute to economic development in Indonesia. The method used can be quantified by examining the macroeconomic impact and the population of Muslim tourists from the country of origin on tourist arrivals in Indonesia. with Regression analysis of the panel data which is a combination of time series data Further transversal data from 2014 to 2019 From five countries of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation (OIC). From the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the country-of-origin population of Muslim tourists has an impact on tourist arrivals to Indonesia with an impact level of 96%. Therefore, the population of the tourists' country of origin will increase Tourist I arrive For Indonesia Which? Want Also one is influence Feather financial growth In Indonesia.

Did Fiscal Measures Help Combat the Macroeconomic Impact of COVID-19?

Did Fiscal Measures Help Combat the Macroeconomic Impact of COVID-19?

The macroeconomic impact of school enrolments: time-series evidence from Greece

The macroeconomic impact of school enrolments: time-series evidence from Greece

The macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach.

This study assesses the economic costs of COVID‐19 and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique. We use a social accounting matrix multiplier analysis to estimate the effects of the pandemic on the economy. Our simulations suggest that the Mozambican economy lost 3.6 percentage points of GDP growth in 2020 and that employment was 1.9 percentage points down. These losses were primarily driven by export shocks, the most heavily affected sectors being trade and accommodation and mining. Mozambique faces a critical challenge of how to promote economic diversification and reduce vulnerability to foreign shocks.

Supervisory shocks to banks' credit standards and their macroeconomic impact

Credit standards reported in the Bank Lending Surveys (BLS) of the European Central Bank (ECB) summarize banks’ sentiment about credit market tightness, and they strongly comove with credit growth. This paper introduces a new external instrument that captures an exogenous source of variation in credit standards, allowing us to identify a structural shock that negatively affects the credit supply. The instrument accounts for mandatory rotations of external auditors within credit institutions of nine euro-area countries. By estimating local projections, this paper finds that an unexpected supervisory measure at the banking-system level features significant dynamic causal effects at the macroeconomic level, which are also state-dependent.