Macroeconomic Changes Research Articles

Macroeconomic changes with declining trend inflation: Complementarity with the superstar firm hypothesis

Recent studies indicate that, since 1980, the US economy has undergone increases in the average markup and the profit share of income and decreases in the labor share and the investment share of spending. We examine the role of monetary policy in these changes as inflation has concurrently trended down. In a simple staggered price model with a non-CES aggregator of individual differentiated goods, a decline of trend inflation as measured since 1980 can account for a substantial portion of the changes. Moreover, adding a rise of highly productive “superstar firms” to the model can better explain not only the macroeconomic changes but also the micro evidence on the distribution of firms’ markups, including the flat median markup.

Exogenous Policy, Racial Avoidance, and the Qualified Relevance of Macroeconomic Change to Metropolitan Inequality

Context: The rich contextualization of educational processes brought about in the pioneering work of Jean Anyon pushed scientists to acknowledge that the education being provided to the least advantaged was shaped by factors with origins beyond school and family environments. Political economic work in education has subsequently argued that an unforgiving economy has lessened the educational fortunes of urban residents. Focus of Study: In response to claims that macroeconomic change created the confinement of educational disadvantage, this article reveals that political economic arguments predicated on macroeconomic change have yet to explain a period of decline on several dimensions of educational inequality from 1970 to 1990. Research Design: Through a juxtaposition of historical population trends and research with the ideas of Anyon and her contemporaries, this analysis considers racial forces emanating from desegregation policy as key to understanding test-score trends and metropolitan restructuring. Descriptive analyses of test-score trends and neighborhood indices of dissimilarities from 1970 to the mid-1990s form the basis of analysis. Conclusions: The analysis demonstrates that not only does desegregation policy align with anomalous educational trends, but that its impact reverberated to other spatial strata through its encouragement of Whites’ school selection decisions intent on racial avoidance. Racial avoidance should therefore be considered as an architect of the racial and economic landscape of the modern metropolis.

Is there a link between all-cause mortality and economic fluctuations?

Background: All-cause mortality is a global indicator of the overall health of the population, and its relation to the macro economy is thus of vital interest. The main aim was to estimate the short-term and the long-term impact of macroeconomic change on all-cause mortality. Variations in the unemployment rate were used as indicator of temporary fluctuations in the economy. Methods: We used time-series data for 21 OECD countries spanning the period 1960–2018. We used four outcomes: total mortality (0+), infant mortality (<1), mortality in the age-group 20–64, and old-age mortality (65+). Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. Unemployment data (% unemployed in the work force) were sourced from Eurostat. We applied error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and the long-term impact of macroeconomic change on all-cause mortality. Results: We found that increases in unemployment were statistically significantly associated with decreases in all mortality outcomes except old-age mortality. Increases in GDP were associated with significant lowering long-term effects on mortality. Conclusions: Our findings, based on data from predominantly affluent countries, suggest that an increase in unemployment leads to a decrease in all-cause mortality. However, economic growth, as indicated by increased GDP, has a long-term protective health impact as indexed by lowered mortality.

The relationship between trade policies and macroeconomic adjustments in the Russian cheese market integration

Many different events happened in 2014 that affected Russia’s domestic markets. Among different dairy products, cheese has been the one for which domestic production has significantly increased and cheese import decreased since the summer of 2014. This paper aims to explore the effects of trade policies and other macroeconomic changes in 2014 on cheese price development in the domestic Russian market. Based on the law of one price, we considered price cointegration and price dispersion methodologies to test the cheese prices developments between producing and consuming regions before and after the summer of 2014. We applied Johansen co-integration test, VECM and dynamic panel models. We used 39 price pairs between main cheese producing and cheese consuming regions for the period of 2008–2016 for price cointegration and partially for price dispersion. The research results show that cointegration of cheese prices between producing and consuming regions have substantially increased since the summer of 2014. Moreover, the dispersion of cheese prices between Moscow and the cheese producing regions has increased with significant effects of counter-sanctions, a reduction in cheese imports, and devaluation of the Russian currency. We conclude that the market efficiency has not increased in spite of boosted domestic cheese trade.

How does income inequality affect the support for populist parties?

ABSTRACT Recent studies provide evidence that income inequality is a relevant driver for the electoral success of populist parties all over Europe. In this article, we aim to understand how exactly increasing income inequality can lead to support for populist parties. More specifically, we discuss four different attitudinal mechanisms from previous research: economic insecurities, trust in political elites, social integration, and national identity. We rely on eight waves of the European Social Survey and find that economic insecurities, trust in political elites, and national identity are linked to rising income inequality and populist support as expected. However, a causal mediation analysis shows that these mechanisms are not sufficient to fully understand the impact of income inequality on support for populists. This finding raises questions regarding the empirical support of existing theories to explain how macroeconomic changes in inequality became a pre-condition for the rise of populist parties.

Cross-Correlations in Meat Prices in Brazil: A Non-Linear Approach Using Different Time Scales

Brazil is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of cattle, chicken and swine. Therefore, co-movements of Brazilian meat prices are important for both domestic and foreign stakeholders. We propose to analyse the cross-correlation between meat prices in Brazil, namely, cattle, swine and chicken, including also in the analysis information from some commodities, namely maize, soya beans, oil, and the Brazilian exchange rate. Our sample covers the recent period which coincided with extensive macroeconomic and institutional changes in Brazil, from 2011 to 2020, and is divided in two periods: (i) presidential pre-impeachment (P1), occurring in August 2016, and; (ii) post-impeachment (P2). Our results indicate that in P1, only the prices of swine and chicken showed a positive and strong correlation over time, and that cattle showed some positive correlation with chicken only in the short run. In P2, there was also a positive and consistent correlation between swine and chicken, and only a positive association with swine and cattle in the long run. For more spaced time scales (days), the changes in the degree of correlation were significant only in the long run for swine and cattle.

INFLUENCE OF SELECTED MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON EMPLOYEE MOTIVATION

Motivation is considered one of the most important prerequisites for the success and effectiveness of the resulting performances. Usually, we meet only with a perspective of employee motivation from inside the company. However, the external environment, i.e. macro-environment, also influences the motivation of employees. We decided to focus on exploring how macroeconomic indicators evolution affects employee motivation. By means of the research conducted in Slovakia during the period from 2008 to 2019 on a sample of more than 30,000 respondents, we define the dependence of selected macroeconomic indicators and employee motivation. The research focuses on the analysis of average annual wage and household debt influence on the most important employees’ motivational factors. Based on our findings, we can state that macroeconomic indicators affect the importance of motivational factors in Slovakia. Especially, the average annual wage strongly influences the six motivational factors (communication at the workplace, duties and type of work, working hours, working environment, superior approach, psychological burden). The results of the research also show that the seven motivational factors (atmosphere at the workplace, good team, communication at the workplace, working hours, working environment, superior approach, psychological burden) strongly depend on the macroeconomic indicator of household debt. Therefore, when creating incentive programs, business managers in Slovakia should take into account not only the effects of the company’s microenvironment on motivation but also the effects of the macro-environment and thus macroeconomic changes in the state. The role of a manager is to keep balance between external environment influence on employee motivation and internal actions. The paper presents inspiring ideas in a field of employee motivation and the influence of external environment on motivation.

Investment location dynamics and influencing factors of pollution‐intensive industries in China: A study of chemical firms

AbstractWith rising environmental regulations and trade disputes, Chinese industries are facing tremendous pressures to restructure and relocate, and pollution‐intensive industries (PIIs) are undergoing particularly significant location adjustment. Scholars have proposed various location theories and econometric models to explain the investment location dynamics of PIIs. However, there are still some deficiencies in the analysis of effective factors, such as macroeconomic changes, uneven development, and enterprise heterogeneity. This paper aims to explore the influencing factors of PIIs location choice from multiple dimensions by integrating multiple location factors and incorporating the variables of temporal, spatial, firm heterogeneity and their interaction items into an econometric model. Based on the capacity investment database for Chinese listed chemical companies, we find that: (a) the investment of chemical firms in the central and western regions has significant regional proximity, while the investment in the eastern region shows a significant north‐south difference. (b) The macroeconomic situation measured by the industry climate index has the greatest effect, magnifies the influence of environmental regulation (ER) and expands the differences of investment location preferences between non‐stated‐owned enterprises (non‐SOEs) and state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), due to SOEs’ have undertaken more social responsibilities. (c) The agglomeration economy significantly increases the probability of investment in all regions, especially in the eastern region; non‐SOEs are more inclined to invest in the central and western regions than SOEs. We conclude that PIIs use a location strategy to adapt to the changing environment and that the effect of ER is mediated through ownership structure and local context.

Macroeconomic sensitivity and firm level volatility: the case of New York Stock Exchange

Purpose – This paper investigates whether the macroeconomic factors affect the firm stock returns volatility differently depending on their location in different sectors. For this purpose, daily financial time-series data for 683 firms located in nine US sectors for the period of 2000 to 2017 are employed. Research methodology – The GARCH (1,1) model was applied to each firm located in nine US sectors. The four macroeconomic factors, namely, exchange rate, treasury yield spread, oil prices, and market return, are included in both mean and variance equations of GARCH (1,1) model to estimate the effect. Research limitations – This research study is limited to the New York Stock Exchange; therefore, it can be extended to the other economies as well. Further, this study uses one firm feature that is the sectoral location of the firm; it is recommended that some other firm features should be studied to explore the volatility behaviour of firms. In the methodological part, this study does not include the lag effect, since it is recognised in the literature that the investors underreact to public information, so future research can be extended to test the underreaction hypothesis. Practical implications – This study has implications for the investors and policymakers. Since it has emerged from the findings that some sectors are more sensitive than others to macroeconomic changes, so this knowledge will help the investors to diversify their portfolio and policymakers to maintain macroeconomic discipline. Originality/Value – The main contribution of this study is that it undertakes the assumption of heterogeneous nature of firms and conducts a detailed firm level analysis by sector covering a more extended period of time to investigate the impact of four macroeconomic factors, namely, exchange rate, treasury yield spread, oil prices, and market return on firm stock returns, volatility using daily data. Further, this study contributes by including all the macroeconomic factors together as an exogenous variable in mean and conditional variance equations of the GARCH (1,1) model to investigate the effect simultaneously.

The Role of Corporate Leaders in Firm Responses to Environmental Change

This symposium centers on the theme of CEO characteristics and firm reactions to environmental change. Specifically, we seek to focus on questions that ask how firms’ strategic reactions to internal and external stimuli can hinge on the differences in CEOs’ individual characteristics. Especially given the ongoing macroeconomic and industry-level changes as well as internal disruptions that we are currently experiencing, this subject matter is of vital importance for strategy scholars and practitioners alike. Our panelists will discuss how personality traits, gender differences, and other CEO traits can shape firm responses to various internal and external events, such as stakeholder evaluations, external expectations regarding gender-based leadership roles, death events, and disasters.

FOR THE ISSUE OF IMPROVING THE AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

The modern world is facing very serious challenges. Our society has once again strongly felt all the challenges of a pandemic. Mankind is going through this ordeal and the economic crisis provoked by it. We have a need for global, fundamental macroeconomic change. The world is changing before our eyes and in these conditions there is a chance for the country to correctly assess the current situation. Despite the rich resource potential of the country, the share of food exports in the country's total exports is 7-9%, and imports - 10-12%. At the same time, according to the results of 2019, food imports exceeded exports by 3 times. Many factors need to be considered when formulating a state support policy, however, the strategy for action should be based on several important principles: 1. Information-analytical support of the state agrarian policy and management of the forecasting system; 2. Access to government support; 3. The consistency of the policy of the Ministry and its sustainable nature, because the long-term goals and objectives facing the field can not be questioned; 4. Competitive products and conditions of its production; 5. Public involvement and participation of industry associations in defining strategic tasks. We get a picture where all five principles are completely violated in both business practice and thought theory. Programs are fragmentary and less result-oriented, the information-analytical part is weak and vague, there is no forecasting system, unequal conditions are maintained in the market and there are no conditions for its protection and regulation, government actions are mostly inconsistent and inflexible, sectorial associations are virtually mixed. They not only dominate the formation of policies implemented by the state, but it also acts on their orders and often seriously damages the process. We believe that the current strategy of agriculture and rural development in Georgia, with its content, goals and objectives, does not meet the challenges facing the country and the sector. The agenda highlights the need to create a new strategic document with more involvement of scientists, experts, practitioners and farmers, which will be the subject of public discussion before adoption. The need for a "big push policy" is suggested by the authors in the paper. The proposed vision, where the territorial and sectoral principles complement each other, moreover their synergy creates a precondition for development, requires more attention from the state. At the modern stage, reasonable, scientifically substantiated and at the same time adapted in practice target-program action models are gaining special importance. They are part of a complex macroeconomic government vision in which all agencies, entities and individuals have explicit rights and responsibilities. All the above problems can be overcome if there is political will and we will replace evolutionary inertia with a policy of revolutionary big push, where the state will comprehensively understand all the problems and advantages, thus creating a Georgian model of crisis management and development. We need to address the challenges, create a new strategic document for overcoming the crisis and promising development, where, along with monetary and fiscal issues, we will play an important role in the regional and agrarian development of Georgia. We are not really in the reality to be satisfied and follow the state in the policy of "evolutionary self-flow", we need a new strategic vision, targeted programs, a new understanding of the food security problem, flexible stimulus and regulatory policies, fast, effective and responsible action by the government.

What Promotes Post-Earthquake Economic Recovery: The Role of Counterpart Assistance Policy After the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake, China

Despite the economic statistics from recent years indicating outstanding economic recovery in disaster-affected areas after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake, the causes of these macro-economic changes remain ambiguous. The Chinese Government set up the counterpart assistance policy to aid post-disaster reconstruction after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in 2008; however, whether the changes seen in the economic statistics can be attributed to this policy remains unclear. This article uses the difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effects of counterpart assistance on economic development in disaster areas. Thirty-nine severely affected counties were chosen as research objects and divided into a treatment group (18 recipient counties) and a control group (non-recipient counties). Empirical results indicate the counterpart assistance policy helped to significantly improve the real GDP and GDP growth rate per capita in the treatment group. Counterpart assistance influenced the real GDP principally by increasing investment in fixed assets, employment, urbanization level, and fiscal expenditure. The findings of this study deepen our understanding of counterpart assistance within the Chinese context.

Analysis Of The Relationship Between The BİST Bank Index and Macroeconomic Changes With Bootstrap and Asymmetric Causality Tests

Ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ve karmaşık ilişki araştırmacıların her zaman ilgi odağı olmuştur. Bu çalışmada BİST Banka, Döviz Kuru, Altın Fiyatları (ons) ve Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki ilişki ampirik olarak incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla 2002/Q1 ve 2019/Q4 arasındaki dönem ele alınarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Hacker &amp; Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik analizi ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik analizi ile test edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlık dereceleri, öncelikle ADF ve KPSS birim kök testleri ile ardından yapısal kırılmaları göz önüne alan LS (2004) testi ile belirlenmiştir. Bootstrap nedensellik analizine göre %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde sadece GSYİH’dan BİST Banka’ya doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu saptanmıştır. Asimetrik nedensellik analizinin sonuçlarına göre dolar kurundaki negatif yönlü bir şokun, BİST Banka’daki pozitif yönlü şokun nedeni olduğu, BİST Bankadaki pozitif yönlü şokun, GSYİH’daki pozitif yönlü şokun nedeni olduğu gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca BİST Banka ve altın fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik incelendiğinde, altın fiyatlarındaki pozitif yönlü şokun, BİST Banka’nın hem pozitif hem de negatif yönlü şoklarının nedeni olduğu belirlenmiştir.

СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ АНАЛІЗ СУЧАСНОГО СТАНУ І ПЕРСПЕКТИВ РОЗВИТКУ ЗАКАРПАТСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ

Purpose. The study’s purpose is a socio-economic analysis of the Zakarpattia region’s current state of development to determine the factors that affect the current situation and priority areas for improving the territorial organization Zakarpattia region, which will ensure sustainable regional development. Design/methodology/approach. In the article, the authors used the literature review method to identify the state of research on socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine and to justify the importance of separate consideration of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. As a result of the analysis of scientific literature sources on the issue of socio-economic development of the Carpathian region of Ukraine, it was revealed that empirical studies of statistical data are insufficiently presented. Based on the comparative method, system analysis, and synthesis, the leading statistical indicators of the Zakarpattia region are studied: gross regional product (GRP), inflation, the economic activity of the population, unemployment, level of consumer prices, capital investments, foreign economic activity, household expenditures, level of wages and incomes of the people for 2007–2019, the dynamics of which reflects two crisis periods: 2008 and 2014–2015. Economic development dynamics in conditions of political instability and rapid changes in the external environment show positive macroeconomic changes reflected in GDP growth, wage growth, increasing exports, and the excess of exports over imports. Findings. The hypothesis that the focus of achieving the most efficient use of the region’s potential and its balanced development is possible only based on coordination of economic, social, and environmental interests, both at the regional and national levels. In particular, the study of GRP of the Zakarpattia region during 2007–2019 shows a stable growth of the area's nominal GRP. However, the real GRP at the same time, although fluctuating abruptly and in general, remains virtually unchanged. A study of the share of the Zakarpattia region’s economically active population in the structure of the economically active population of Ukraine allows us to conclude that it has changed unevenly and has tended to decrease. The border location of the Zakarpattia region facilitated emigration. In 2020, the share of the economically active population was declining, and unemployment is rising due to the loss of many people of their jobs due to the pandemic, which directly impacts reducing real and nominal GRP. Today’s economic recovery is taking place without significant changes in domestic enterprises’ quantitative structure by industry and is not accompanied by an increase in foreign investment. Practical implications. The results of this research are of interest to scientists and students of educational institutions, employees of research institutions that study the development trends of the regions of Ukraine. Besides, the results can help employees of public authorities of the Zakarpattia region shape the area’s development strategy. Originality/value. This study highlights the strengthening of globalization processes at the present stage of development of our state puts before its regions the main requirement – to maintain and streng then the positive growth of vital socio-economic indicators through the introduction of administrative, legal, tax, financial and other measures in the interests of the population and the state as a whole. The main factors influencing the socio-economic development of the Zakarpattia region are identified. Thus, based on the analysis, we can conclude that the Zakarpattia region’s socio-economic development will depend on the dynamics of production and consumption and improve the results of foreign economic activity. Priority areas for improving the Zakarpattia region’s territorial organization, which will ensure regional development sustainability, have been identified. The unique geopolitical location of Zakarpattia region and its agricultural orientation and tourism are decisive factors in overcoming crises and reviving its socio-economic development.

Entrepreneurial Intention before and during COVID-19—A Case Study on Portuguese University Students

The present research aims to compare the entrepreneurial intention of university students before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose, some dimensions were analyzed, such as the availability of this target audience to undertake an activity at their own risk, the preference for a future while employed by others, their perception of the values that society places on entrepreneurship, and the entrepreneurial abilities/skillsets. A comparative study of a quantitative nature was used, associating two samples composed of students of higher education in Portugal, the data were obtained before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis of the results permits us to conclude: (1) in the circumstances of macroeconomic changes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, entrepreneurial activity does not decrease; (2) respondents are less interested in being employed by others and more attracted to being entrepreneurs; (3) there is a growing concordance with the values that society places on entrepreneurship; and (4) there is now a greater aptitude for entrepreneurial activity. The present research is original, as it compares data obtained in different contexts of economic and social stability. It contributes to theory and practice, in the sense that it points to conclusions in the opposite direction of other studies carried out in situations of disasters of another nature, and can serve as a reference for the development of strategies to promote entrepreneurship, within higher education institutions and official entities to publicize and promote new public policies.

A new approach to portfolio management in the Brazilian equity market: Does assets efficiency level improve performance?

This paper proposes a new strategy for portfolio selection in the Brazilian equity market with the use of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) as a mechanism to select assets based on their efficiency levels. Empirical analysis uses daily prices to compose minimum variance (MVP) and maximum Sharpe ratio (MSR) long-only portfolios, and also includes their performances during the COVID-19 pandemic. MF-DFA indicated a multifractal nature for asset price returns, generally associated with long-term persistence. The strategy using the most efficient equities resulted in portfolios with lower levels of systematic risk (betas), indicating that the lack of efficiency is related to higher sensitivity to macroeconomic and conjuncture changes. The MVP portfolio produces higher performance than the alternatives in terms of risk and return. Finally, during the COVID-19 pandemic, besides its consistent negative impacts, MVP and MSR portfolios verified lower losses than the IBOVESPA.

Food consumption–production response to agricultural policy and macroeconomic change in Nigeria

AbstractAchieving agricultural transformation and farmer resilience in resource‐dependent developing countries like Nigeria is complicated by volatile macroeconomic conditions, which disrupt agricultural supply chains through income, foreign exchange, and risk‐mitigation effects. This study examines the food consumption–production linkage in Nigeria at a time when the national Agricultural Transformation Agenda was implemented and an economic crisis was unfolding. Many farm households responded to expected shocks by planting more staple foods for own consumption at the expense of agricultural commercialization, income growth, and dietary diversification. A policy initiative to improve access to modern farm inputs appeared to mitigate these adverse effects.

Macroeconomic changes and educational inequalities in traffic fatalities in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000\u20132015: a register-based study

This study examined trends and inequalities in road traffic accident (RTA) mortality in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland in relation to large-scale macroeconomic changes in the 2000s. Educational inequalities in RTA mortality in 2000–2003, 2004–2007, 2008–2011 and 2012–2015 among 30–74 year olds were examined using census-linked longitudinal mortality data and by estimating the relative and slope index of inequality. Overall RTA mortality decreased substantially between 2000–2003 and 2012–2015. From 2004–2007 to 2008–2011, the RTA mortality decline accelerated but was larger in the Baltic countries. Among men the RTA mortality decline was mostly driven by a larger fall among the high and middle educated. Among women, the changes in RTA mortality by educational level had no clear pattern. From 2000–2003 to 2012–2015 relative educational inequalities in RTA mortality increased among men, although more in the Baltic countries. Among women the pattern was mixed across countries. Absolute inequalities fell in all countries among both sexes. Educational inequalities in male RTA mortality may be growing because of increasingly less access to safer cars and a more hazardous driving culture among the lower educated.

Macro-economic Factors Influencing Tourism Entrepreneurship: The Case of Kazakhstan

Tourism development contributes to economic development. In emerging economies like Kazakhstan, tourism development needs active entrepreneurship. As the country emerges from the post-Soviet era, there has been an increase in economic development and prosperity. Entrepreneurship in the tourism sector can drive economies forward through the creation of new tourism and hospitality businesses. The macroeconomic environment can influence entrepreneurial activity. We use an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on tourism entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan. Using data from 1996 to 2018, we find that there is a positive short-run relationship between wages in the tourism sector and entrepreneurship, suggesting that wage growth in the sector attracts entrepreneurs. In the long run, however, tourism sector wages have a negative relationship with entrepreneurship, suggesting that these higher wages represent a higher cost to entrepreneurship. There is also a strong positive relationship between national income and tourism entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan. Implications of macroeconomic policy changes for Kazakhstan and other emerging economies are discussed.

The role of gold futures in mitigating the impact of economic uncertainty on spot prices: Evidence from China

This paper studies the co-integration relationship and volatility spillover effect between China's gold futures and spot prices through the VECM-BEKK-GARCH model. Then, MSGARCH and DCCE-GARCH are applied to study the relationship among China's gold futures market, spot market price volatility and the stabilization effect in uncertain economic environments. This paper enriches the current research, providing gold market participants with hints to address economic uncertainty. The empirical results show that China's gold futures market has a weak stabilization effect on spot price volatility. In scenarios with uncertain economic information and uncertain macroeconomic changes, the correlation between gold futures and spot price volatility is reduced in China, and the role of gold futures in stabilizing the spot price weakens. Furthermore, with economic uncertainty, the fluctuation range of the gold futures price is greater than that of the spot price, with a tendency of more frequent fluctuations. This also means that the effectiveness of the futures market in regulating the spot price will be reduced, and gold market regulators need to stabilize the market through alternative methods to futures.