Macroeconomic Aspects Research Articles

Climate change and India’s inflation, fiscal space and growth

ABSTRACT Given India is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, it is essential to study its macroeconomic aspects in light of the stark and tangible climate crisis. Employing monthly time-series data between 1993 and 2024, we estimate VAR models, followed by adopting a vector error correction model (VECM) to extensively capture the dynamic relationships between climate change and the macroeconomic space (inflation, fiscal health and growth) of India. We develop a novel climate change index based on sea level data, providing a more comprehensive measure of climate impacts. For inflation, the long-run relationship estimates indicate that a unit increase in our climate change indicator is associated with a significant 0.463% increase in inflation. In the context of fiscal performance, we find that climate change leads to a decrease in fiscal deficit in India. However, we find that per unit worsening climate change leads to a significant 0.005 trillion INR increase in fiscal deficit in the long run. Lastly, we find that climate change diminishes GDP in both the short and long run. Our findings are mostly robust to using the temperature variable as the standard climate change indicator.

Exploring the Impact of Bank-Specific Internal Factors on the Profitability: A Study of the Banking Sector of Nepal

This study aims to investigate the impact of bank-specific internal factors on the profitability of the banks. The study, which employed an explanatory research technique, used secondary data from major sample merger commercial banks' annual reports for fiscal years 2014 to 2022. The population consists of 20 scheduled banks, with a sample of five merged banks selected purposefully. Bank size, liquidity ratio, dividend payout ratio, capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loans ratio are the five independent variables that the study uses to analyze the association between Return on asset, the dependent variable. The study used descriptive statistics, multiple regression models, and MS Excel for data analysis. The findings indicate that both BS and NPLR have a noteworthy detrimental impact on ROA, whereas LR has a considerable beneficial effect. However, the results revealed no statistical significance for CAR and DPR. The study concludes that among the internal factors analyzed, LR is the most influential factor on bank profitability. These findings provide valuable insights for regulators, bank management, and other stakeholders, highlighting areas for potential performance improvement. The inclusion of macroeconomic aspects with the potential to impact the profitability of Nepalese banks should be further examined.

Macroeconomic Forces Affecting Islamic Performance Indices

This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic factors that impact the performance of Malaysia's Islamic stock market. This study looks at six independent variables that affect the performance of the Islamic stock market in Malaysia: the world oil price, inflation rate, Islamic interbank rate, money supply (M2), industrial activity index, inflation rate, Islamic interbank rate, exchange rate, and world oil price. The Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), Bursa Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and Eikon Thomson Reuters were among the secondary data sources used in this study's quantitative data gathering methodology. The research was carried out over four years (2019–2023) using monthly data. A theoretical model was created to investigate the suggested relationship after it was analyzed using the E-views software. The success of the Islamic stock market was found to be significantly correlated with the inflation rate, money supply, Islamic interbank rate, and exchange rate. These determinants are exerting a direct influence on the Islamic stock market in Malaysia, particularly in its macroeconomic aspects. The present study aims to enhance comprehension regarding the possible effects of different elements on how well the Islamic stock market performs. Different results could come from more research into the various elements affecting the Islamic stock market's performance.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Determinants on the Performance of the Dhaka Stock Exchange: A Time Series Approach

The present study examines the causal relationships between selected macroeconomic factors and the Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index (DSEX) performance from January 2014 to December 2023. Time series econometric techniques include Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests to verify stationarity, Granger causality to investigate short-term dynamics, and Johansen's co-integration test to evaluate long-term relationships. The results show that while there is no long-term cointegration, there are significant short-term relationships between macroeconomic variables and the DSEX broad index. GDP growth and unemployment significantly impact stock performance, with two-way causality. While interest rates and the money supply have little impact on the index, inflation forecasts trends in inflation even if it doesn't directly influence it. Overall, the DSEX broad index shows how important it is to Bangladesh's macroeconomic dynamics by accurately predicting changes in GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. The researcher provides unique insights into the mechanics of the Bangladeshi stock market, filling a vacuum in the literature on emerging countries. It analyzes how macroeconomic conditions affect the DSEX index over time, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The study investigates the influence of several macroeconomic variables on DSEX Index performance, providing significant information for Bangladeshi investors and policymakers looking to increase profits, inform policy choices, and promote economic stability. To have a better knowledge of stock market dynamics, future studies should include other macroeconomic aspects and regional markets.

Macroeconomic Aspects of Unemployment Benefits: Evaluating the Danish Policy

ABSTRACT This article provides an assessment of the Danish public policy of lowering unemployment benefits, adopted by the Danish government in the tax reform of 2012. To do so, we employ a stock-flow consistent model in which we incorporate the central features of the Danish labour market and the unemployment insurance system. We estimate the model using quarterly data over the period 2005Q4–2020Q1. To evaluate the effects of an unemployment insurance policy, we perform counterfactual analysis by reversing public policy in relation to unemployment insurance and compare the results with the original (baseline) scenario containing the policy effects. Overall, our findings suggest that when the aggregate demand channel, amongst other relevant macroeconomic channels, is included in the assessment, the effects of unemployment benefits on economic growth, employment, and fiscal balance tend to be weaker. These findings clearly question the political decision of suppressing unemployment benefits in general and more specifically in countries with low unemployment rates such as Denmark.

Financial assessment of the implementation of state policy measures in the field of environmental protection: macroeconomic aspect

In the current article, financial aspects of the state environmental policy in Russia at the present stage are observed. The authors study the scale of financial resources allocated for environmental protection at the macroeconomic level in the context of ensuring environmental safety. The review of periodical press materials allowed us to highlight the most pressing issues of eco-investment. When processing statistical data to conduct an analysis of the costs of implementing environmental measures and assessing dissipation of funds in the main categories of expenses, the authors used dyna mic and structural methods of economic analysis with determination of absolute and relative difference. A comparative method was implied in comparing retrospective information to monitor annual budget allocations for the needs of ecology alongside with the table method combined with the graphical one. The assessment of expenditures for environmental protection in Russia for 2017–2021 showed an annual stable growth with an almost twofold increase in the whole five years. A structural analysis in the context of environmental protection activities allowed us to identify the dominant cost items as the most significant in the implementation of state environmental policy. A comparative analysis of the unit costs of environmental protection in percentage of gross domestic product through international comparisons indicates the underfunding of this area by Russian state authorities. The limited amount of finance to ensure rational use of natural resources requires implementing principal measures in accordance with the main priorities of state policy in the field along with application of the most effective ecological and economic tools.

Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Profitability of Islamic Shariah-Based Banks: Evidence from New Economic Horizon Using Panel Data

The purpose of this study is to analyze significant variables that permit us to ascertain the profitability of Bangladeshi Shariah-based banks. In doing so, two profitability measurements, namely, return on asset (ROA) and return on equity (ROE), have been used as dependent variables, while capital adequacy, asset management quality, operational efficiency, credit risk, liquidity, and the size of the bank have been considered as bank-specific independent variables. In addition, the rate of interest, inflation, and GDP growth rate have also been taken as macroeconomic independent variables. This study examined panel data of eight Shariah-based Islamic banks over a thirteen-year period spanning from 2010 to 2022, applying different kinds of linear regression models, including pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects, and random effects. Subsequently, the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach is also applied to assess the robustness of the findings. The results revealed that the profitability of Bangladeshi Shariah-based Islamic banks is positively associated with asset management quality, liquidity, and credit risk. In contrast, capital adequacy, operational efficiency, and bank size are negatively correlated with the bank’s profitability. Concerning the macroeconomic factors, the findings indicated a notable positive correlation between the profitability of Shariah-based banks in Bangladesh and both the inflation rate and the interest rate spread. However, this study has also found that the profitability of the sample banks of Bangladesh is not significantly influenced by GDP growth. By providing fresh empirical data, the current research aimed to close a significant vacuum in the body of knowledge on banks and provide important insights for policymakers, managers, and other stakeholders by focusing on particular bank-specific and macroeconomic aspects that influence the profitability of Shariah-based Islamic banks in Bangladesh.

ДЕФИЦИТ ПЕРСОНАЛА В РОССИЙСКИх ОРГАНИЗАЦИЯх И ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ

e article analyzes the problem of personnel shortage in Russian organizations, which is proposed to be considered from two complementary positions: the microeconomic aspect — the development strategy of each specific organization, its personnel policy, features of leadership style, existing personnel and all personnel management processes that influence the selection and retention of employees in the organization, as well as macroeconomic aspects general demographic trends occurring in the state and government polic y measures in the field of demography aimed at regulating and equalizing the current demographic situation. Statistics show that there is currently no population decline in the Russian Federation. Moreover, the population is gradually increasing. The problems of personnel shortages do not lie in the decline in population figures or in the lack of necessary qualified personnel in the labor market. The problem of personnel shortage is deeper and is associated with the working conditions required by workers in the new economic and information realities. In order to implement the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation, a new national project “Demography” was developed, the objectives of which were: increasing the overall life expectancy of the population; encouraging citizens to lead a healthy lifestyle; an increase in the average fertility rate from 1.76 to 1.78 in 2024.

The Impact of Crime against a Person on Domestic Investment in Dubai

The rise in crime against a person in rapidly growing cities poses significant risks to societies and economies, affecting both microeconomic and macroeconomic aspects. This trend could potentially deter economic performance and domestic investment. Consequently, this study aims to analyze the impact of crime against a person on domestic investment in Dubai spanning 1989–2021. Dubai is considered an emerging economy and a highly competitive global city. It is also acknowledged as one of the world’s smart cities. This study employed the novel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to investigate the impact of both the escalation and contraction of crime against a person on domestic investment in Dubai. The findings exhibit that the fluctuation in crime against a person has an asymmetrical impact on domestic investment. In addition, estimations of the positive and negative long-run asymmetric coefficients indicate that crime against a person has a negative impact on domestic investment in Dubai.

Analisis Kointegrasi Antara Saham Syariah Dan Tingkat Suku Bunga

The development of Islamic economics with the application of sharia principles in economic activities is starting to be practiced in the field of sharia finance. This started with the establishment of sharia banking, then followed by the emergence of the sharia capital market as an investment tool to attract profits and seek capital. The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) as the antithesis of the conventional capital market has challenges when carrying out investments using sharia principles, this is because securities in the form of shares are greatly influenced by macroeconomic aspects such as interest rates. So sharia share prices are very sensitive to the dynamics of interest rates. This research seeks to see the extent of the influence of interest rates on sharia sham prices at JII. The method used is VECM analysis to see long-term effects. The results of this research found that the interest rate variable did not significantly influence sharia stock prices in the long term, however the results of the VECM analysis found that there was a negative relationship, meaning that there was still an influence, although not significant. So sharia share prices can still be affected by changes in conventional interest rates.

Глобализация и Россия: нужны ли новые приоритеты?

This paper contributes to a discussion on globalization and its prospects. Authors argue that the existing definition of globalization is, at least, incomplete as it focuses too much on macroeconomic aspects while ignoring the role played by international businesses in global trade and investments. Linking globalization with production and distribution decisions made by multination companies would alleviate ambiguity surrounding populist proclamations that globalization is over. Research argues that globalization is far from over because multinational companies are far from retreating from their global activities, but the nature of this activities is undergoing fundament changes in response to new technological trends. In the coming years services, data, rise of production robots will change the way global trade and investments are done and thus, will change how globalization is viewed at. Geopolitical developments challenge Russia’s participation in globalization, and the country has to seek answers for how position itself in the world economy. This search is complicated by the fact that in the previous 30 years a lot of efforts has been spent on the so-called integration into the world economy that has resulted in an excessive dependence of parts of the national economy on foreign markets. New sources of economic growth need to be uncovered. Authors suggest that rather then retreating from the global scene, Russia needs to refocus its efforts away from external trade for the sake of external trade towards an active participation in global economic governance and propose its own vision on how to face the new global trends.

ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ АСПЕКТИ РОЗВИТКУ «ТРЕТЬОГО СЕКТОРУ» І СУБ’ЄКТІВ «СОЦІАЛЬНОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ» В УКРАЇНІ

The article analyzes certain theoretical aspects of the development of «the third sector» and subjects of social economy. The terms «social economy» and «third sector» have long been in circulation in Western economic science, legislation and business practice and today are an important component of the developed countries’ economies. However, for Ukraine they are relatively new, uncommon and insufficiently researched, which, in turn, creates obstacles for their active development. Therefore, the analysis of existing approaches in European economic science and the development of theoretical aspects of the «third sector» and social economy development in Ukraine is a very relevant and important scientific task. The peculiarities of use of the term «social economy» in two different meanings have been established. The first is related to the general theoretical aspects of macroeconomics and certain theoretical and political economic concepts of the «improvement» of capitalism. The second is related to practical embodiment of the idea of mutual aid in the form of a special type of enterprises (organizations) that have a «non-capitalist nature» (do not want to make a profit) and form a separate, special sector of the market economy, consisting of real business entities whose activities are based on the idea of mutual assistance and has a clear social direction. Within the social economy sector, another term stood out and became widespread, which is «solidarity economy» – as a part of the social economy at grassroots level (in individual territorial communities and on the basis of other stable groups of people united by a certain sign of solidarity). Therefore, in the literature, the terms «social» and «solidarity» economy are found both separately and together when it comes to organizations or enterprises of social (solidarity) economy (SSE organizations or ESS). The terms «social economy» and «third sector» are quite close in meaning, because they unite specific non-state, non-profit, socially oriented organizations. However, «the third sector» is a category that includes, but is not limited to, social economy entities. In other words, «social economy» is the largest and most important part of «the third sector». The social economy subjects traditionally include cooperatives, mutual societies, fund associations and social enterprises. All of them have non-profit economic nature and specific legal regulation. In the article, significant attention is paid to the disclosure of these features, common features and differences of various subjects of the social economy.

Analysis of the insurance and facilitation of the financial sustainability of the pension system in the Republic of Moldova

The objective of this article is to analyze the main macroeconomic aspects that directly have a major influence on ensuring the sustainability of the social protection system, including the pension system. The need to improve the financial sustainability of the pension system is required by increasing and unifying the conditions regarding the contribution period and retirement age, by increasing GDP and income from contributions and taxes, and by, by accumulating financial means in the reserve fund of state social insurance, ensuring a closer link between the state social security contributions paid and the amount of pension established for insured persons. Pension projections and the mobility of powers that are behind the foreseeable increase in pension expenditure, could meet political commitments to revise the pension system through a systemic or parametric reform of the PAYG scheme and the adjustment capacity of the selected pension indicators. The fundamental task of developing the system of social protection in the Republic of Moldova should be to improve the quality of life, welfare, and social peace. In turn, social insurance can contribute to the revival of the real economy, to the socio-economic progress of the country, as well as to the promotion of a positive image of Moldovan society at international level.

PENGARUH EKSPOR, IMPOR KOPI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA TAHUN 2003-2018

This research analyzes the impact of coffee exports, imports, and economic growth on Indonesia's trade balance in 2003-2018. The multiple linear regression analysis method tests the relationship between these variables. Data obtained from Indonesian Plantation Statistics for Coffee Commodities (2019). The research results show that coffee exports significantly negatively impact the trade balance, which means that an increase in coffee exports can cause a decline in the trade balance. On the other hand, coffee imports have a significant negative impact, indicating that increasing coffee imports can contribute to the trade balance deficit. The importance of policies that support increasing the competitiveness of coffee exports, controlling imports, and sustainable economic development to achieve a better trade balance. Further research can explore in-depth micro and macroeconomic aspects to produce more specific policy recommendations.

Macroeconomical and Microeconomical Aspects of Technology Transfer

Technology transfer (TT) is the transfer of research results from universities to the commercial sector. The macroeconomic aspects of technology transfer are related to the impact of TT on the technological constant, therefore, on gross domestic product and all major macroeconomic indicators, and on the economic growth of the country as a whole. The microeconomic aspects of technology transfer are related to the behavior of companies in harnessing scientific and technological advances to promote new products on the market. The problem of technology transfer is relevant due to the fact that the main factor for the growth of the economy of modern developed countries is not the growth of capital and labor, but the growth of the technological level. From the point of view of management theory, the first important peculiarity of the technology transfer process is due to the fact that several actors are involved in the process, the three main ones being academia (universities and research institutions), the business environment (enterprises) and public administrations. All participants in the process are relatively independent, have different goals and different value systems, all participants have at their disposal the resources to achieve their goals. Representatives of the business environment in the process of technology transfer are interested mainly in such results that are related to the creators of business success. For representatives of academia, universities and research centres in the process of technology transfer, such results are important that relate to the general successes of the academic environment – number of scientific publications, reports at scientific conferences, scientific awards. Representatives of public sectors in the technology transfer process are most interested in the quality indicators of public administration. Keywords: technology transfer, economic growth, macroeconomic aspects, microeconomic aspects.

Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on macroeconomic aspects

Economic development of a state can be well defined as quantitative alterations in macroeconomic variables, which upsurge the overall production or yield over a certain period, equated to the preceding period. Amongst many some principal macroeconomic aspects that donate towards the progression of economic growth comprise Interest Rate, Forex Rate/Exchange Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI - Inflation), Current Account Deficit, and Stock Prices. Secondary data were used, USA, Pakistan and rest of the World, from January, 2016 to December, 2022 with monthly frequency was utilized for estimation of coefficients. The empirical results show that equality has a negative impact on economic growth of USA, Pakistan and rest of the World. Results indicate that the pandemic have a significant effect on the interest rate of World, USA and Pakistan which increases in the start and then gradually decline. The exchange rate of USA, Pakistan and rest of the World is devalued significantly along with the rate of unemployment which increase and both affect significantly and negatively impact on the economy. The consumer price Index was decrease because of high uncertainty which have a negative effect on the GDP of USA, Pakistan and rest of the World. This brings the current account deficit to decreased due to less import and it has a significant impact on economy.

Factor analysis of the relationships between governance and macroeconomic indicators in countries of the Andean community (2002-2018)

The purpose of this article is to review the relationships between governance and macroeconomic indicators for countries of the Andean Community (CAN). The approach is exploratory, using factor analysis to establish relationships between variables and then contextualize them with historical milestones in the selected countries. The resulting factors that explain the relationship between governance and macroeconomics fit the data by more than 70%, indicating satisfactory factor models. For all countries, the factor that best explains behavior combines governance and macroeconomic variables. In the factors, the constant is the instability of the variables, especially macroeconomic ones, which predominate in each of them. The models are pessimistic in showing that both macroeconomic aspects and governance variables remain stable above the average, but for short periods of time. The methodological design does not allow or expect to establish causal relationships or project trends, but it does observe, through milestones, some changes that could be interpreted by the different relationships between the variables studied.“Keywords: governance, macroeconomic environment, factor analysis, Andean Community.

Bank stability and digitalisation: empirical evidence from selected Indian banks

Purpose India’s efforts to achieve large-scale financial inclusion are challenged by growing concerns related to the stability and profitability of the overall banking system. Although a rising dependence on digital finance and the acceptability of wallet-based payments was also visible during the post-demonetisation era and the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, issues related to bank stability and profitability could be addressed through the extension of digital financial services (DFS), making the system more transparent and resilient to internal as well as external perturbations.Design/methodology/approach The study provides empirical evidence to support the bank digitalisation and extension of DFS to achieve financial inclusion. The impact of digital finance, macroeconomic aspects and microprudential factors (bank specific) on stability is examined for selected Indian banks using quarterly observations spanning 2011Q1–2020Q4. The relationship between banking stability (measured through z-score and Sharpe ratio) is established with digitalisation factors using the instrumental variable regression two-stage least square -based panel regression. Robustness is tested using panel vector autoregression models.Findings Digital transactions including mobile banking, National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT) and Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) prove vital and significant in establishing stable banking activity in the Indian context across both public and private banking institutions. Access to broadband services provides a positive impetus in this direction. These issues could be addressed through the extension of DFS making the system more transparent and resilient to internal as well as external perturbations. As an implication, the adoption of innovative means of transaction could empower the financially excluded sections of society.Originality/value The novelty of this study is to bring the discussion of digitalisation and bank stability (riskiness) in the Indian context to light. As the first of its kind, this study paves the way for providing an empirical justification for promoting and achieving bank stability through digitalisation in the era of post-demonetisation and Covid-19.

Financial Security of Economic Entities: Macroeconomic Aspects

Throughout the post-reform period, the Russian economy was influenced by crisis processes, which significantly caused threats to the economic security of economic entities and its financial component. At the same time, financial difficulties of commercial organizations can be associated not only with the effects of periodic crises and systematic risks, but also with the effectiveness of business process management. This article examines the trends in changing the financial parameters of the activities of organizations in the non-financial sector of the economy, identifies the causes and consequences of negative changes in their financial condition that threaten economic security. The author considers the problem of the imbalance arising in the relations between banks and commercial organizations - potential and existing borrowers. The control of banking structures by the Central Bank has led to a reduction in commercial banks that implement high-risk operations. Inefficient activities of enterprises and organizations are virtually uncontrolled and regulated only by the institution of bankruptcy. A new trend in the activities of large corporations has been identified, which consists in diverting non-current assets into long-term financial investments, while allowing strategic miscalculations related to the possibility of innovative development.

Становлення мікро- та макроекономічного аналізу фінансового посередництва. Стаття перша. Теорії посередницьких функцій банків Д. Даймонда і Ф. Дибвіга та становлення мікроекономічного аналізу фінансових інституцій

The first of two articles which reveal the theoretical and practical significance of the researches awarded 2022 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences. The author shows that the laureates laid the foundations of both the modern microeconomic theory of banks and financial institutions and the analysis of the role of financial intermediation in macroeconomic cycles. It is found that until the 1980s two powerful theoretical traditions dominated in the analysis of financial intermediation. The first tradition was to consider banks primarily as subjects of the money supply. It originates from the controversy between the quantitative theory of money and the real bills doctrine and culminates in the outstanding work by M. Friedman and A. Schwartz. The second tradition was a well-formalized neoclassical approach to the financial system. It was based on the efficient markets hypothesis, the Modigliani-Miller theorem, and the banking theory of E. Fama, where financial institutions are only a veil for real economic activities. It is shown that the growth of interest in the micro- and macroeconomic aspects of the financial sector activities in the late 1970s was due to the growth of its power due to the development of technologies and globalization, and due to the emergence of information economic theory which created a theoretical basis for the endogenous derivation of financial intermediaries that overcome market imperfections in ensuring the flow of funds between savers and borrowers. The article reveals the theoretical and practical importance of D. Diamond and Ph. Dybvig’s works, in which a bank endogenously arises as an optimal contract for solving important socio-economic problems of financing long-term projects with liquid deposits and of delegated monitoring of borrowers. The author emphasizes the importance of the scientists’ analysis and formalization of the incentives that determine the peculiarities of the intermediary role of banks and the nature of their services for financial regulation. It is shown that the model of delegated monitoring by D. Diamond not only demonstrates social benefits of specialization in monitoring, but also solves the problem of depositors' monitoring a bank as a monitor, revealing the incentives for the efficient implementation of borrowers monitoring by the bank: in conditions of diversification of borrowers, when their profits have an independent probability distribution, monitoring helps to avoid liquidation even in the event that part of the borrowers' projects are not successful. It is concluded that the formalization of the banks’ built-in vulnerability in the Diamond-Dybvig model, associated with their function of maturity transformation, and its overcoming by government institutional mechanisms, which, among other things, can distort the banks’ incentives, in effect substantiate the "symbiosis" of a state and banks in ensuring the latter’s stable functioning.