Macroeconomic Approach Research Articles

Amazon deforestation and CO2 emissions: A macroeconomic approach using the GVAR

AbstractWe analyzed the relationship between economic variables, Amazon deforestation, and CO2 emissions in Brazil. We used a macroeconomic approach of a system of open economies (global vector autoregressive [GVAR]). We constructed the international economy using 34 countries, representing 77% of the world GDP and 80% of world CO2 emissions. GVAR allows us to simulate the world economy, capture spillover effects, incorporate the externality of gas emissions, treating Brazil as a small open economy, and including trade integration in the analysis. We found that domestic and external shocks affect Amazon deforestation and CO2 emissions; the principal external shock is the Chinese one, followed by the European and the US shocks. China, directly and indirectly, affects CO2 emissions and deforestation in Brazil through two channels (exchange rates and policy rates). The estimates showed that Brazilian currency and commodity prices are relevant for deforestation, while industrial production is for gas emissions. Other results are that (i) the Brazilian economy affects CO2 emissions in Latin America (and the principal influence of China is on Asia), and (ii) the Chinese shock loses importance when using bilateral trade in 1999–2001, when China was not a fundamental trade partner of Brazil. Alternative model configurations demonstrate that soybean prices and Argentina influence Brazilian carbon emissions and Amazon deforestation. Specifically, soybean prices emerge as a major driver of carbon emissions. These results suggest that geography and trade integration matter to understanding Amazon deforestation and CO2 emissions. Our estimates highlight the importance of government policies and international cooperation in curbing Amazon deforestation.

Quantifying the digital economy according to the proposed framework

Methods. The article is based on a thorough analysis of data on the development of the digital economy, obtained from experts, researchers and partners specializing in the collection and processing of statistical data. The concept proposed in the article is formed based on both the basic definition of the digital economy and the methodology of measuring its scale basing on the calculation of added value. The digital economy estimation method is based on the use of national accounts and reflects the digital economy in the general context of gross domestic product (GDP). Results. The article examines the role of digital technologies in the socio-economic development of society. The changes that the modern model of interaction between business and society undergoes under the influence of digitalization processes are demonstrated. Special attention is paid to the research of existing systems for measuring the scale of the digital economy. The possibility of applying an approach to the assessment of the digitalization of the economy, which is based on the macroeconomic approach of consumption-output, proposed by W. Leontief, is considered. For its implementation, available data from the system of national accounts were used, namely: information on sixteen economies in Asia, Europe, North America and the Pacific region, including Australia. The study identified digitized sectors around the core perimeter of the digital economy, and predicted that countries with high imports of digital products, as well as industries that are highly dependent on the functioning of core digital sectors, are likely to have lower digital economy scores than others. Novelty. An improved methodological approach to measuring the scale of the digital economy is proposed, which consists in estimating its share in the total GDP of the country based on the calculation of the added value of a set of key digital products created within the national economy. Practical value. The results of the study are relevant to modern global problems, as they form a comprehensive statistical perspective of the review of the development of the digital economy.

Predictive Modeling of Default Scenarios in the CMBS Market: A Macroeconomic Approach

This study analyzes potential default risks in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) using time series data from 2010 to 2023. Employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to forecast economic indicators and calculate DTI and LTV ratios, which are crucial for predicting defaults in the MBS market. Our analysis, based on two economic models, examines the influence of macroeconomic factors and credit default risks on residential and commercial properties, such as Fixed-Rate and Adjustable-Rate Mortgages. The findings suggest that despite the significant impact of the pandemic, the likelihood of default in the American MBS market over the next 15 years remains relatively low. The study emphasizes the significance of comprehending the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and MBS default risks, providing a comprehensive methodology for future research.

Integrating national accounting and macroeconomic approaches to estimate the underground, informal, and illegal economy in European countries

AbstractThis article proposes a hybrid national accounts (NA)-macroeconometric approach to fill the gap between the demand for reliable and internationally comparable estimates and the sparse availability of official statistics based on the NA approach. The proposed method combines data from Eurostat’s Tabular approach for the exhaustiveness of NA with estimates based on theoretical hypotheses on the drivers of non-observed production. We estimate underground, informal, and illegal economies for 22 European countries over the period 2000–2020.

The Second Leontief Paradox: Economic Theory or Economic Engineering?

The article analyzes the situation, conventionally called the "Second Leontief Paradox", when a recognized scientist, Nobel laureate and undisputed authority in the academic environment, it turns out, has practically no place in modern economic theory - neither within the "mainstream" nor in unorthodox directions. This paradox is considered in the context of four questions: (1) does Leontief have a “theory” at all; (2) to which theoretical school Leontief belongs or at least gravitates; (3) what is the main factor in the formation of the paradox under consideration; (4) what are the prospects for Leontief's approach in macroeconomics. To understand this paradox, it is proposed to use the terms introduced by G. Mankiw - an economist as a scientist and an economist as an engineer. It is concluded that there is still a gap between "theory" and "engineering" in economics. It is assumed that such a gap, including in connection with the rapid growth of a large amount of economic data and universal digitalization, may gradually decrease.

The empirics of technology, employment and occupations: Lessons learned and challenges ahead

AbstractThis paper is a critical review of the empirical literature resulting from recent years of debate and analysis regarding technology and employment and the future of work as threatened by technology, outlining both lessons learned and challenges ahead. We distinguish three waves of studies and relate their heterogeneous findings to the choice of technological proxies, the level of aggregation, the adopted research methodology and to the relative focus on robots, automation and AI. The challenges ahead include the need for awareness of possible ex‐ante biases associated with the adopted proxies for innovation; the recognition of the trade‐off between microeconometric precision and a more holistic macroeconomic approach; the need for granular analysis of the reallocation and transformation of occupations and tasks brought about by different types of new technologies; the call for a closer focus on impacts on labor quality, in terms of types of jobs and working conditions.

Аграрное российско-белорусское пространство на пути углубления управленческих отношений с акцентом на приграничные субъекты специализированного хозяйствования

The article is devoted to the consideration of the issues of macroeconomic management of the placement and specialization of certain sub-sectors of agriculture of the border geostrategic Cen-tral macro-region of the Non-Chernozem zone of the Russian Federation in the context of the development of a common agro-food market in the integration process with the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the state of cooperation between the subjects of the Russian-Belarusian border shows that both of them do not sufficiently use the logistical proximity for more effec-tive management of specialization and concentration of agricultural production, since the indica-tors characterizing it are not higher than the average country parameters. One of the essential features of the functioning of the Russian-Belarusian agrarian borderland is the radiation pollu-tion of the territories of the subjects under consideration, which leaves its imprint on the system of agriculture and farming, requiring close macroeconomic management intervention, insuffi-cient at present. To change this situation, it is recommended to create a single management body for the contaminated territories of the Union State, with the formation of a kind of decontamina-tion agrarian economy here. Different results of agrarian reform in Russia and the Republic of Belarus, including in the border territories, indicate that the so-called "points of advanced growth" are being identified in Belarus, the basis of which is a socio-economic mechanism of an integration nature, when the agricultural production of goods of a number of industries has reached an export-oriented level here, with the export of this products to all continents of the world. Such a scientific macroeconomic approach of Belarusians is a visual algorithm for im-proving managerial relations in the Russian agro-industrial complex.

The general equilibrium effects of localised technological progress: A Classical approach

We study the general equilibrium effects of localised technical progress à la Atkinson–Stiglitz in economies in which capital is a vector of reproducible and heterogeneous goods. We show that there is no obvious relation between ex-ante profitable innovations and the functional distribution of income that actually emerges in equilibrium. Unlike in the standard macroeconomic approach to technical progress, localised innovations may lead to indeterminacy in equilibrium factor prices, and individually rational choices of technique do not necessarily lead to optimal outcomes. Innovations may even cause the disappearance of all equilibria.

The Role of Fiscal Policy in Human Development (Macroeconomic Approaches)

This study aims to analyze the relationship between financial policy and human development is one of the most prominent concerns of the modern era, as it is a way to know the impact and role of financial policy in the human development process, The main purpose of the research is to know The role of fiscal policy in human development the current study is looking for the future of human development in light of the developments that occurred in Iraq after 2003, Analysis of the reality of fiscal policy in Iraq.

A Keynesian–Minskian perspective on the transformation of industrial into financial capitalism

During the past decades, industrial capitalism has been transformed into something which has been dubbed ‘Casino Capitalism’, ‘Turbo Capitalism’ or ‘Money Manager Capitalism’ by different authors: financial accumulation has outpaced real accumulation. This process of ‘financialisation’ has been discussed quite intensively in the literature with respect to its historical determinants and its macroeconomic effects, yet it has not been studied thoroughly whether the shift from the production and allocation of commodities and services towards the origination and distribution of loans and assets as the main activity of non-financial companies challenges our theoretical principles and, therefore, demands a new macroeconomic approach. The objective of this paper is to argue in a preliminary way that financialisation is not merely to be understood as the relative growth of the financial sector based on a deepening of financial intermediation but as a structural transformation of the core business of non-financial firms. This is based on an extended post-Keynesian theory of monetary production and an application of Minskian short- and long-term instability cycles.

An actionable maturity planning model for smart, circular cities

In this paper, we propose a macroeconomics approach to assist decision-makers and stakeholders when considering the transition of a city towards the circular economy paradigm. We reflect on approaches that leverage smart city maturity models to capture the evolution and trajectory of a city in its quest for smartness. By adopting the cross-methodology borrowed from the macroeconomics domain, we illustrate how a maturity model can be actionable in the sense that it can reveal the equilibria of supply and demand of a given smart city dimension or parameter. To evaluate this methodology, we study a well-known use case in cybersecurity, specifically incident response, against crowdsourcing, a key enabler of a data-driven circular economy. Our findings confirm that when crowdsourcing is injected into smart city infrastructure, the city's maturity is expected to increase as the additional capabilities can contribute to addressing cybersecurity incidents.

Border Effects on firm's productivity: The role of peripherality and territorial capital

AbstractBorder effects have long been studied and are a central element of EU regional policies. While most literature takes a macroeconomic approach, this paper adopts a microeconomic one, studying the impact on firm productivity in border areas. The empirical analysis, on Italian land borders, employs a novel two‐phases double‐matching design, which considers firm‐level characteristics as well as the territorial capital of municipalities where they locate. Results suggest that border effects are not limited to territories close to the border but affect larger areas. Furthermore, they are significant and negative in urban areas, while they are insignificant in peripheral areas which are characterized by low accessibility and territorial capital endowment.

Shock Therapy in Transition Countries: A Behavioral Macroeconomic Approach

Shock Therapy in Transition Countries: A Behavioral Macroeconomic Approach

National Differences in Public Education Policy: Macroeconomic Approach

National Differences in Public Education Policy: Macroeconomic Approach

The restructuring nature

Purpose: This article aims to systematize the concept of restructuring and its types. Design/methodology/approach: The article uses literature analysis as a research tool. The issue covers domestic and foreign publications of the last quarter of a century. Findings: The activities carried out as part of the restructuring process are unique and unrepeatable. They cannot be directly copied or mapped in another organization. The concept of restructuring has been and is currently considered by authors in four approaches as a market phenomenon resulting from changes in the environment, as a microeconomic phenomenon, as a result of the systemic-industrial restructuring of the national economy and in meso- and macro-economic approach. Research limitations/implications: An article from a literature review is limited by its subjective selection. Originality/value: The article updates contemporary knowledge about the restructuring process. Its value is the diagrammatic representation of overlapping approaches to restructuring. Keywords: restructuring, definition, classification. Category of the paper: Literature review.

Assessment of economic efficiency indicators of environmental protection measures during the construction of hydraulic engineering structures

In order to ensure the integral management of water and land resources during the implementation of environmental protection engineering measures, as well as to solve ecological problems, a macroeconomic approach directed at the final results is necessary. The traditional "narrow" economics of nature use is viewed as a single cycle of water and land resources and production waste and pollution, with insufficient attention paid to the economy itself ("black box"). For purposeful use of macroeconomics, it is necessary to build a vertical of natural productivity of each natural resource (chain), which will connect the primary natural factors with the production of final products. An effective concept of the rationalization of nature use and environmental protection against debris-flow phenomena and the matching economic mechanism of nature use in sectors and complexes can be developed and realized only after the development of the concept of development of the sector complexes and the whole economy. Regional features of the formation of the economic mechanism of nature use are important. The assessment of economic efficiency indicators of environmental protection measures during the construction of hydraulic engineering structures is discussed. The value of efficiency obtained by environmental activities is considered by the criteria for evaluating the efficiency of the investment project, where this criterion is called net discounted income, net discounted value, or modern net income. Functional-value analysis of environmental impact during the construction of hydraulic engineering structures, including the construction of high dams, for the realization of the analytical stage, a functional model is built based on the orography of the social-ecological-economic system. Based on theoretical and field scientific studies, the economic efficiency of the innovative debris-flow control structure has been established, the numerical value of which is equal to 16.15 USD per 1 longitudinal meter of the structure.

Changes in the comparative advantage of Polish dairy products

Competitiveness is one of the key concepts in economic sciences, andit is defined as the ability of businesses to compete in the market. The aim of this study was to assess the competitiveness of dairy products in Poland. The competitiveness was evaluated in a macroeconomic approach by analysing the exports, imports, and the trade balance. The results were processed and presented with the use of tabular, graphic, and descriptive methods. After Poland joined the European Union (EU) in 2004, one of the key goals was to improve the quality, storage, and applicability of dairy products, and to promote trade in milk and dairy products. The Polish dairy industry reported a positive balance in the foreign trade of milk and dairy products, which contributed to positive values in the competitiveness indicators of dairy products. The values of the export specialisation index (SI), export revealed comparative advantage (XRCA), relative import penetration index (MRCA), foreign trade coverage ratio (CRK), and the Grubel-Lloyd intra-industry trade index (IITk) were positive, which attests to the competitiveness of Polish dairy products. We proved that the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the competitiveness of dairy enterprises in Poland.

The Impact of General Government Final Consumption Expenditure- Economics Growth nexus for the Gambia

Traditional Keynesian macroeconomic approaches states that extraordinary levels of government consumption expenditure increase employment levels of the population, productivity and investment levels through investment multiplier effects on aggregate demand. Thus, the spending of the government increases also raises aggregate demand to the right, causing output to increase depending on the magnitude and efficiency of expenditure multipliers on growth. The focus of this paper is to examining the impact of general government final consumption expenditure- economic growth nexus for the Gambia for the periods from 1977 to 2017. The econometrics techniques used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to explore the impacts either negative or positive effects of government consumption final expenditure on growth in the Gambia for the periods under study Data for the study were obtained from World Bank(WDI). The findings were interpreted based on a 5 percent significance level of alpha. The multiple regression result revealed that government consumption was not a significant impact on the economic growth of the Gambia. This opposes the traditional Keynesian macroeconomic theory. This study suggested that Capital and recurrent expenditures on economic facilities should be directed mainly to productive economics. This will stimulate activities in the economic sectors like agriculture, industry and services, that will perhaps contrary the undesirable effect of government expenditure on economic growth especially in the Gambia in which the time series study was based.

Dimension Reduction in the Topology of Multilayer Spatial Networks: The Case of the Interregional Commuting in Greece

The daily commuting out of the city of residence for labor purposes is a complex phenomenon driven by various geographical, transportation, economic, and social forces. Due to its high level of complexity, current modeling approaches are mainly disciplinary and thus lack a multifaceted approach incorporating diverse conceptualization of this phenomenon. To contribute to this demand, this paper develops a methodological framework integrating aspects of commuting of different contexts, functionality, and level of geographical resolution. The proposed framework builds on a complex network and principal component analysis first to develop a multilayer graph of interregional commuting, next to configure variables representing aspects of network topology, and finally to decompose the total model into principal components expressing uncorrelated aspects in the overall conceptualization of interregional commuting. The proposed framework conceptualizes spatial distance as a major force of network topology and develops a quantitative framework evaluating the consistency of network topology across layers of different geographical resolutions and functionality. The overall approach provides insights into the structure and functionality of interregional commuting and promotes the integrated macroeconomic approach in regional research.

How to build and simulate a Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent model: a primer for students

This paper presents, with pedagogical aims, the Godley–Lavoie approach to building a Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent model, finding its solution, and performing simulations using E-views software. By doing so, we seek to contribute to the literature in three ways: first, presenting to the reader an accessible description of the procedures adopted by the experts; second, spreading among students and researchers a heterodox macroeconomic approach; third, showing that the accounting models are more precise to analyze the economic reality and represent an alternative to simulate the interaction between real and financial markets.