Macroeconomic Analysis Research Articles

Factors determining economic growth in Syria in 2014 – 2023 : macroeconomic analysis

The economy of Syria has been experiencing very strong and diverse pressure from Western countries on the national economy for a long period. Despite this, the country was able to survive and continues its development, although very unstable. In this regard, the issue of thefactors of the growth of the Syrian economy in the last decade, the problems and prospects for the development of the national economy and the foreign trade sector of the country, as well as the prospects for its cooperation with foreign partners, including at the regional level, remains relevant. The article shows that in the last decade, the Syrian economy has faced serious problems, including two new (external) factors – the global COVID-19 pandemic and the escalation of military tensions in the Middle East region, affecting both the territory (and the economy) of Syria. At the domestic socio-economic level, market volatility affects the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators (high instability of development, including in the field of per capita income, a significant degree of closure of the national economy – low indicators of the foreign trade quota with continued import dependence, a significant share of agriculture and low urbanization relative to other countries in the region), while high final consumption costs do not allow the country to ensure the necessary level of fixed capital accumulation for the development and diversification of the national economy. At the same time, Syria's economy remains one of the most diversified in the region, and the country does not face a high degree of food dependence like its regional neighbors. From this, the authors conclude that it is necessary and possible at this stage to intensify and escalate intraregional inter-Arab economic cooperation and trade as one of the tools to reduce existing risks.

Macroeconomic Analysis of Social Health Insurance Implementation in Kazakhstan

Over the past three decades, Kazakhstan put a lot of efforts and resources into implementation of the Social Health Insurance. Debates on health policy often focuses on contribution rates in SHI that should limit the growth of out-of-pocket spending. We investigate a central issue to the debates: are the contribution rates stipulated by the law sufficient to minimize the out-of-pocket health payments? We develop a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on over-lapping generations macroeconomic model (OLG) to describe the process of healthcare reforms in Kazakhstan. The numeric results argue that current contribution rates will not be enough to reduce the share of ou-of-pocket health payments in the economy. On contrary, optimal inter-temporary consumption-saving decision of households may bring us to the optimal composition of total spending that shifts toward health, and the out-of-pocket health expenditures can easily exceed current level of 40 percent.

Macroeconomic Analysis and General Economic Equilibrium of Kazakhstan

The paper studies general equilibrium in the economy of Kazakhstan. The purpose of the study is to estimate the equilibrium real interest rate for the economy within current frameworks. The IS-LMBP curves are plotted based on corresponding regression models of the real output measured by GDP. The exogenous variables are taken for the regressions according to the theoretical propositions. The quarterly data for 2008Q1-2022Q4 published in the datasets and bulletins of the Committee for Statistics and the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan were used. Some consequences of the change in the exchange rate regime and in macroeconomic policy framework on macroeconomic relationships were revealed. Effectiveness of using interest rate as an instrument in maintaining inflation targeting policy is still ambiguous for the case of Kazakhstan. This study demonstrates the general equilibrium state of the national economy and specifications of the curves listed above. The results can be used to assign further the nominal interest rate using Taylor type rules

Dynamics of youth unemployment in ASEAN-5 emerging economies through macroeconomic analysis

This research investigates youth unemployment dynamics in ASEAN-5 emerging economies using a macroeconomic framework. Employing the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology, it examines the effects of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, population growth and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on youth unemployment rates. Empirical results reveal that GDP and inflation significantly influence youth unemployment over the long term. This highlights the interplay between economic expansion and youth employment prospects. Conversely, neither population growth nor FDI significantly impacts youth unemployment. This suggests that increasing population or attracting foreign investments alone may not directly translate to better employment opportunities for the youth. Instead, robust economic growth and stable inflation rates are crucial. These findings underscore the need for ASEAN-5 policymakers to develop strategies fostering economic growth and controlling inflation to mitigate its adverse effects on youth employment. The research provides insights into how targeted economic policies can better address youth unemployment challenges, creating a conducive environment for job creation and economic stability, ultimately benefiting the youth workforce.

Towards Energy Equity: Understanding and Addressing Multifaceted Energy Inequality

Given the pressing necessity to mitigate the consequences of climate change, it is of the utmost importance to establish a carbon-neutral society. Nevertheless, sustainability is significantly impeded by energy inequality. It is the term used to describe the unequal distribution, access, and utilization of energy resources among demographic groups, which has been further exacerbated by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. This research aims to conceptualize and quantify energy inequality in Lithuania and compare it with EU data in order to bolster the ambitious objective of a climate-neutral Europe by 2050. This article elucidates the intricacy of energy inequality by utilizing a Lithuanian population survey and a literature review, which are supplemented by an EU macroeconomic analysis. The findings underline the necessity of locally tailored solutions and underscore the significant disparities in energy access between Lithuanian regions and demographic groups. Targeted policy measures are necessary to overcome economic, technological, and socio-political obstacles that impede progress toward a climate-neutral society. The necessity of a multidimensional approach and global cooperation is underscored by a comparative analysis of EU statistics, which reveals variable progress in addressing energy inequality. Theis research is a pertinent contribution to the discourse on sustainability and social justice, and it offers policy-makers, practitioners, and stakeholders guidance for a more inclusive and sustainable energy future.

From rebound to reinforcement effects—The role of analyzing underlying mechanisms for accounting

Rebound effects can reduce planned environmental savings considerably if they are not known, accounted for and managed. Environmental activities only contribute effectively to reducing environmental impacts if rebound effects that diminish the intended improvements remain small. Research has so far focused on macroeconomic analyses and shows that rebound effects can be highly relevant on the level of industries and economies. While widespread agreement exists that rebound effects are an important phenomenon that needs to be better understood when managing environmental protection activities, little is however known about mechanisms that explicate the emergence of rebounds in companies and what consequences can be drawn for accounting and management to prevent or reduce them at the corporate level. To address this gap, this paper problematizes the underlying assumption of an automatic and almost inevitable formation of rebounds by investigating how rebound effects emerge from mechanisms, including decisions and actions within companies. Our conceptual analysis contributes to accounting research and practice by asking how rebound effects could be considered, prevented, or even transformed into outcomes that increase the intended environmental improvement, i.e. reinforcement effects. The study shows that rebound and reinforcement effects are not inevitable but that their emergence is subject to accounting and management decisions.

Macroeconomic Analysis of Vietnam: Challenges and Policy Recommendations

Vietnam, a one-party socialist republic, has undergone significant economic transformation since the lifting of U.S. sanctions in 1986. Transitioning from a closed, agrarian economy to a market-oriented system, the country has achieved notable progress, advancing from one of the poorest nations to a lower-middle-income status. Despite this progress, Vietnam faces several macroeconomic challenges including high inflation, a depreciating currency, and a growing trade deficit. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these issues, leading to disruptions in business activity, supply chains, and economic instability. Additionally, severe air pollution presents a pressing concern for public health and economic productivity. This paper examines Vietnam's current macroeconomic challenges, evaluates the impact of recent economic disruptions, and proposes policy recommendations to address these issues. Recommendations include increased health spending, structural reforms to enhance green growth, and monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation and encouraging investment. The analysis highlights the need for a balanced approach to sustain economic progress while addressing critical challenges.

The influence of the financial environment on household investment on the example of the Siberian Federal District

The paper examines the impact of the financial environment on household investments by analyzing economic conditions and identifying dependencies between the state of households and the possibility of investing. The study is significant because household investments play an important role in economic growth and financial stability of the state. However, household investment decisions can vary significantly depending on the state of the financial environment. The authors conducted a macroeconomic analysis of the financial environment of households in the Siberian Federal District, systematized macro indicators reflecting its penetration. The results of the study can be used in the development of public policies aimed at improving the financial environment and stimulating household investment. Keywords: financial environment, households, investments, economic conditions, financial condition.

The impact of social globalization on domestic savings: a long-run macroeconomic analysis of advanced ageing economies in the Asia-Pacific Region

ABSTRACT The economics literature has extensively investigated the influence of demography and macroeconomic variables on domestic savings. However, another crucial aspect that needs to be considered in the literature is social globalization concerning conspicuous consumption, which may disproportionately impact savings behaviour in different countries. This paper aims to ascertain how social globalization affects domestic savings at the macroeconomic level in the long run, specifically focusing on countries that have reached advanced stages of ageing in the Asia-Pacific region. Cointegration analysis via the augmented autoregressive distributed lag (A-ARDL) bounds test is used in this paper. The main results show that social globalization and domestic savings are cointegrated in the long run for New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong. Long-run relationship estimates yield that social globalization intensification leads to a decline in savings, supporting Veblen’s conspicuous consumption theory. Specifically, more Western-oriented countries experience a much more substantial impact of social globalization on savings. To address conspicuous consumption, policymakers should embrace a holistic strategy that encourages savings and financial prudence while discouraging excessive and status-oriented expenditure.

Advancing macroeconomic models through artificial intelligence integration

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into macroeconomic models marks a significant evolution in the field of economic forecasting and analysis. Traditional macroeconomic models, often constrained by linear assumptions and a limited set of variables, struggle to accurately capture the complexities of the global economy. This paper explores how AI, particularly machine learning algorithms like Random Forests and Neural Networks, enhances these models by processing and interpreting vast and diverse datasets, including unstructured data such as social media sentiment and news analysis. AI's capability to adapt and learn from new data enables dynamic models that remain relevant and accurate amidst changing economic conditions. By addressing non-linearities and enhancing model robustness, AI provides a more nuanced understanding of economic dynamics, uncovering intricate patterns missed by traditional analyses. The implications of AI-enhanced macroeconomic models are profound, offering more reliable foundations for economic research and policy-making. This paper argues that the integration of AI into economic modeling not only improves the precision of economic forecasts but also enriches the field of economic research and the formulation of more effective policy interventions. Through examples such as inflation rate forecasting and the identification of complex, non-linear economic relationships, this study highlights the transformative potential of AI in macroeconomic analysis and policy formulation.

A Comprehensive Economic Analysis of Tobacco Farming Potential in Grobogan Regency, Central Java

This study aims to investigate the planning for the Tobacco Products Industrial Area (KIHT) development in Grobogan Regency, Central Java, based on economic analysis. KIHT is an area where the activities of the tobacco products industry are concentrated, equipped with infrastructure, facilities, and supporting facilities for the tobacco products industry. The study was designed with a survey approach, in-depth interview, and focus group discussion (FGD) with 100 key informants to obtain facts from the existing phenomena and find information factually. The number of key informants is based on the number all of tobacco numbers in Grobogan regency. The study, therefore, analyzes tobacco competitiveness, labor absorption, product market, and macroeconomic analysis. To sharpen the analysis, the study was supported with a questionnaire instrument to see how far tobacco farmers were prepared in KIHT development. Empirically, the results showed that tobacco farming absorbed 150 HOK/ha per season, greater than corn farming which only absorbed 52 HOK per season per ha and rice farming which absorbed 87 HOK per season per ha. It had high competitiveness with the oligopsony market structure. In addition, the market for tobacco products was experiencing a significant upward trend, and it is in accordance with the Cobweb Theorem law that the behavior of farmers will try to increase the planting area when there is a previous price increase. From the potential of tobacco products, Grobogan Regency received an excise duty of IDR 14.87 billion or 2% of the total excise duty of Central Java Province. This revenue-sharing fund will increase the regional fiscal capacity.

Fundamental and macroeconomic analysis of stock prices in the consumer non-cyclicals sector listed on the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index

Fundamental and macroeconomic analysis of stock prices in the consumer non-cyclicals sector listed on the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index

Cryptoeconomics: Financial Market Security Aspects and Implications for Managerial Accounting

"The development of modern information technologies and the processes of globalization are key factors for the emergence and spread of virtual currency. The legal status of cryptocurrency is still uncertain. It is considered both as a modern means of payment and as a speculative tool for illegal activities. However, despite such diametrically opposed interpretations, the fact that economic realities are constantly changing is unconditional. The IFRS reporting system is no exception, which should adapt to new challenges in a timely manner and take into account the need to disclose information about new progressive elements as much as possible. The article aims to analyze the economic and financial essence of cryptocurrencies, assess the phenomenon of the crypto economy and its impact on the financial market and monetary policy, as well as to outline appropriate implications for the corporate level – namely, for management accounting. The methodology is based on a theoretical analysis of cryptographic protocols and tools for investment and macroeconomic analysis, some approaches of economic theory. It is shown that although today cryptocurrency is a speculative, high-risk instrument, cryptoeconomics is increasingly integrating into the global financial market, while the potential risks of this process still outweigh its benefits. Accordingly, at the micro-level, management accountants must understand the related risks and be able to explain the implications to the management team and the board of directors. The originality of research consists of an attempt to combine the analysis of macro- and micro-implications of emerging crypto economics based on an economic theory foundation."

“You Will:” A Macroeconomic Analysis of Digital Advertising

Abstract An information-based model is developed where traditional and digital advertising finance the provision of free media goods and affect price competition. Digital advertising is directed toward specific consumers while traditional advertising is undirected. The equilibrium is suboptimal. Media goods, if valued by the consumer, are under provided with both types of advertising. Additionally, traditional advertising is excessive because it is undirected. The tax-cum-subsidy policy that overcomes these inefficiencies is characterized. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy. Through the lens of the calibrated model, digital advertising increases welfare significantly. The welfare gain from the optimal policy is much smaller than the gain from digital advertising.

ГЕНЕЗА Й ЕВОЛЮЦІЯ КОНЦЕПЦІЇ ЛАНЦЮГІВ СТВОРЕННЯ ВАРТОСТІ У КОНТЕКСТІ ФОРМУВАННЯ МІЖНАРОДНОЇ КОНКУРЕНТОСПРОМОЖНОСТІ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ

The aim of the article is to identify the ways and directions of the genesis and evolution of the value chain concept in the context of forming international competitiveness of enterprises The analysis of scientific research on this issue has shown that the concept of value chains originates from the teachings of the physiocrats, gained significant development from the 1940s onwards, and currently holds a prominent position in the forefront of management thought and analytical tools. It forms a powerful strategic planning instrument for analyzing the business environment and making managerial decisions to enhance the competitive advantages of an enterprise in the market. The study found that the value chain concept is based on process-oriented, adaptive, and strategic management approaches. It views the enterprise as a system that transforms available resources and ensures feedback among all management links to secure competitive advantages in the market. The functioning of value chains also determines the formation of enterprise profits. The value chain concept is a crucial tool for both macroeconomic analysis, identifying global trade trends, its impact on developed and transition economies, understanding directions of national development policies, and the integration of individual productions into sectoral complexes, as well as microeconomic analysis for forming strategies of differentiation and diversification for enterprise development. The value chain concept must consider and balance the goals of various stakeholders, including customers (satisfaction of needs, technical support), owners and shareholders (profit, profitability, development), the workforce (decent working conditions, professional growth), the community (responsible social and environmental policies, community involvement, promotion of a healthy lifestyle), and partners (collaboration based on stable, long-term, effective business relationships). Value chains in an enterprise include sequentially interconnected processes and actions aimed at producing goods and services that acquire added value by meeting consumer needs, thereby forming the enterprise’s competitive advantages. Analyzing value chain elements as a management tool increases business profitability and is an integral part of formalized strategic management business models (mission, strategy, corporate culture, performance indicators) and operational management. The analysis of value chain elements is a part of management accounting, marketing, and logistics. It provides a systematic approach to making managerial decisions about the functioning of value chains, which can disrupt the status quo among the links, performers, and beneficiaries in the economic relationship system that encompasses the value chains within an enterprise.

Analysis of Palangka Raya City Poverty Alleviation Policy

This study aims to determine poverty reduction in the city of Palalangka Raya. The data used are time series data in 2015-2022. Poverty is a condition where there is an inability to meet basic needs such as food, clothing, shelter, education, and health. The type of data used is secondary data and primary data. Secondary data sources were collected from several authorized agencies and related to poverty alleviation programs such as the Social Service, The Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia and other relevant secondary data sources. Whereas primary data is directly through in-depth interviews (depth interviews), as well as stakeholders in the determined research areas. Changes in structure as an operational step and humans as targets, the most appropriate poverty reduction strategy is community empowerment. Poverty reduction based on community empowerment focuses on two main scopes, namely: the scope of the area and the scope of the material. The scope of the area is the Palangka Raya City government and other supporting agencies in the government environment related to this study, as well as other regions that cover various areas that are poor areas in various regions in the City of Palembang. The scope of the material includes empirical studies in the form of macroeconomic analysis and poverty reduction analysis, as well as theoretical studies on community empowerment.

Macroeconomic analysis of the child benefit: Fertility, demographic structure, and welfare

This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of the child benefit, using a general equilibrium overlapping generations model incorporating fertility choices. The model is calibrated to Japan and produces the benefit elasticity of fertility in line with the empirical estimates. Expanding the per-child payment leads to welfare gains for future generations in the long-run equilibrium. Notably, the long-run gains extend to individuals who are childless throughout their lives and do not receive child benefits. Higher fertility rates facilitated by the expansion and the resulting demographic change account for the results via several channels. However, reaching the new equilibrium takes approximately 100 years as the demographic change necessitates sufficient transition periods. The accrual of welfare gains is thus gradual and takes a long time.

Evaluating the Impact of Energy Price Shocks on Emerging Countries from the Non-Euro Area: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Abstract Exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian conflict affected the global economy, but mostly emerging economies. Even though the critical moments have passed, the negative effects on the economy are still present in the current economic environment, characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Exogenous events, which have an uncertain likelihood of occurring, harm economies regardless of their development. In fact, a framework for unanticipated events is vital, as are steps to achieve low levels of national debt and increased authority stability. In this context, the objective of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationships between energy prices and certain macroeconomic variables, which were affected by the fact that the energy crisis triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict overlapped with the accelerated transition to a green economy and the decarbonization process. The CEE countries are more vulnerable to the energy crisis, and their proximity to the front lines of military conflict can be an important fact to take into account. The research focuses on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. The empirical analysis was conducted on monthly frequency data and in order to present an effective method of modeling interactions between macroeconomic variables, the Bayesian technique was employed.

Role of blockchain technology in changing the structure of a country's monetary base and GDP

This article explores the role of blockchain technology in changing the structure of a country's monetary base. Specifically, it examines the potential benefits and risks of using blockchain in monetary policy, such as efficiency, transparency, and new opportunities for managing the financial system. The article highlights changes in approaches to monetary policy through the use of blockchain-based digital currencies, as well as discusses challenges that may arise in implementing this technology. The conclusions of this article may be valuable for government agencies, central banks, and researchers interested in the impact of blockchain technology on the financial sector. In recent years, the adoption of blockchain technology as an alternative to fiat currencies in various countries around the world has significantly expanded globally, as a significant number of business organizations have recognized the importance of all the advantages that blockchain technology provides. Previously, the focus was on cost control to remain competitive, but lately blockchain technologies have somewhat shifted the significance and monetary mass, influencing the structure of a certain country's monetary base. Based on recent research and publications, the article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic principles that govern the determination of the impacts of various economic and financial indicators on components of economic growth and predicting the consequences of such decisions. It references the seminal work of economists P. Romer, R. Lucas, R. Barro, I. Salla y Martin, and R. Levine, who laid the foundation for studying endogenous economic development. The purpose of this article is to investigate the practice of implementing blockchain technology in the financial support of various economic processes of economic entities and their impact on the structure of a country's monetary base. Thus, it has been identified that the influence of blockchain on the structure of the monetary base itself has received little attention. Despite blockchain being used as an alternative to components of the monetary base, thereby changing its structure within a certain country, most studies focus on literature reviews and provide information for practitioners and academic communities. Therefore, this article aims to bridge the gap by developing a model to identify distortions in the structure of the monetary base under the influence of blockchain. The effective use of blockchain is still being explored. As a result, the operations of many companies using blockchain technologies for payments are vulnerable to technical issues. Blockchain technology is utilized to address this problem and facilitate data exchange among relevant stakeholders. This document presents a benchmark for the impact of blockchain technology on the structure and mass of the monetary base for a specific country, integrating blockchain for sustainable money functioning with the integration of the Internet of Things and big data. Finally, potential benefits and limitations are analyzed during the implementation of this framework. Methods. Macroeconomic analysis, econometric analysis, trend analysis. Results. Determination of the level of influence of blockchain technologies on the change in the structure and volume of the monetary base of a certain country. The study casts doubt on classical economic doctrines by establishing a strong correlation between the distribution of components of the monetary base in its structure and the use of blockchain technology for payments for goods, labor, and services. It emphasizes that the economic growth of a country and the structure of its monetary base depend on the proportion of blockchain technology usage in that country. This research opens up possibilities for further studies in this interdisciplinary field.

Perbandingan Hasil Belajar Siswa Terkait Keefektifan Penggunakan Media Pembelajaran Pada Materi Kegiatan Ekonomi

Economic activity is a complex as well as integral phenomenon in the life of modern citizens. This abstract explores various aspects of economic activity, including the process of production, distribution, and consumption of an object or service. Through micro and macroeconomic analysis, this abstract investigates the attitudes of economic actors, market interactions and the consequences of economic policies on the development and welfare of citizens. Not only that, this abstract also examines the position of technology, globalization, and facts.