Macroecological Studies Research Articles

Species extinctions strengthen the relationship between biodiversity and resource use efficiency

Evidence from terrestrial ecosystems indicates that biodiversity relates to ecosystem functions (BEF), but this relationship varies in its strength, in part, as a function of habitat connectivity and fragmentation. In primary producers, common proxies of ecosystem function include productivity and resource use efficiency. In aquatic primary producers, macroecological studies have observed BEF variance, where ecosystems with lower richness show stronger BEF relationships. However, aquatic ecosystems are less affected by habitat fragmentation than terrestrial systems and the mechanism underlying this BEF variance has been largely overlooked. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation of BEF variance using a trait-based, numerical model parameterized for phytoplankton. Resource supply in our model fluctuates recurrently, similar to many coastal systems. Our findings show that following an extinction event, the BEF relationship can be driven by the species that are the most efficient resource users. Specifically, in species-rich assemblages, increased redundancy of efficient resource users minimizes the risk of losing function following an extinction event. On the other hand, in species-poor assemblages, low redundancy of efficient resource users increases the risk of losing ecosystem function following extinctions. Furthermore, we corroborate our findings with what has been observed from large-scale field studies on phytoplankton.

Association with humans and seasonality interact to reverse predictions for animal space use

BackgroundVariation in animal space use reflects fitness trade-offs associated with ecological constraints. Associated theories such as the metabolic theory of ecology and the resource dispersion hypothesis generate predictions about what drives variation in animal space use. But, metabolic theory is usually tested in macro-ecological studies and is seldom invoked explicitly in within-species studies. Full evaluation of the resource dispersion hypothesis requires testing in more species. Neither have been evaluated in the context of anthropogenic landscape change.MethodsIn this study, we used data for banded mongooses (Mungos mungo) in northeastern Botswana, along a gradient of association with humans, to test for effects of space use drivers predicted by these theories. We used Bayesian parameter estimation and inference from linear models to test for seasonal differences in space use metrics and to model seasonal effects of space use drivers.ResultsResults suggest that space use is strongly associated with variation in the level of overlap that mongoose groups have with humans. Seasonality influences this association, reversing seasonal space use predictions historically-accepted by ecologists. We found support for predictions of the metabolic theory when moderated by seasonality, by association with humans and by their interaction. Space use of mongooses living in association with humans was more concentrated in the dry season than the wet season, when historically-accepted ecological theory predicted more dispersed space use. Resource richness factors such as building density were associated with space use only during the dry season. We found negligible support for predictions of the resource dispersion hypothesis in general or for metabolic theory where seasonality and association with humans were not included. For mongooses living in association with humans, space use was not associated with patch dispersion or group size over both seasons.ConclusionsIn our study, living in association with humans influenced space use patterns that diverged from historically-accepted predictions. There is growing need to explicitly incorporate human–animal interactions into ecological theory and research. Our results and methodology may contribute to understanding effects of anthropogenic landscape change on wildlife populations.

Phylogenetic relationships within the New World subfamily Larreoideae (Zygophyllaceae) confirm polyphyly of the disjunct genus Bulnesia

The Larreoideae subfamily is the major representative of the family Zygophyllaceae in South America, where several of its members are common to dominant in arid regions of the Southern Cone. However, there are currently no phylogenetic analyses of the subfamily that may help to understand its origin and diversification. Additionally, there are taxonomic discrepancies around Bulnesia Gay (1845), one of its more important genera. Accordingly, we performed a phylogenetic analysis combining chloroplast (rbcL and trnL-F) and nuclear (ITS) DNA sequences. Bayesian and Parsimony analyses were performed to highlight the intergeneric relationships within Larreoideae. All genera with the exception of Bulnesia are monophyletic and we propose to redefine Bulnesia, dividing it in two genera. Furthermore, other taxonomic issues of the remaining genera are solved. This study represents the first approximation to clarify the phylogenetic relationships amongst all Larreoideae genera, producing a phylogenetic framework that can be used in future macro-ecological studies.

A global comparison of the climatic niches of urban and native tree populations

AbstractAimUrban macroecology studies can provide important insights into the impacts of climate change and human intervention in ecosystems. Current theory predicts that urban trees are constrained by temperature in very cold climates but not in other climates. Here we predict the climatic niche variables of planted urban tree populations from the realized climatic niche of native populations and explore whether niches are constrained across all temperatures.LocationGlobal (182 cities across six continents).Time periodUrban tree data: 1980–2016. Native tree data: 1950–2017.Major taxa studiedTwo hundred and three tree species.MethodsWe used urban tree inventory data and Global Biodiversity Information Facility occurrence data to compare the realized climatic niches of native and urban tree populations. Realized climatic niches are calculated by combining bioclimatic data with native tree and urban tree occurrence data. Regression is used to predict the climatic niche of urban tree populations from the climatic niche of native populations.ResultsThe realized climatic niche of native tree populations was a good predictor of the realized climatic niche of urban tree populations, although climatic niches are attenuated in urban populations. Urban tree niches were 38–90% wider than native tree niches, with the mean annual temperature niche breath of urban tree populations 3.3 °C (52%) wider than native tree populations.Main conclusionsUrban trees are planted in climates that are outside the realized climatic niche of native populations. Temperature remains a strong filter on urban tree populations across the full temperature range. Temperature increases attributable to the combined effect of the urban heat island and global climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on urban tree populations around the globe. This is particularly true for temperate cities, where cold climate trees are planted near the upper limits of their realized temperature niches.

ATLANTIC BIRDS: a data set of bird species from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

South America holds 30% of the world's avifauna, with the Atlantic Forest representing one of the richest regions of the Neotropics. Here we have compiled a data set on Brazilian Atlantic Forest bird occurrence (150,423) and abundance samples (N=832 bird species; 33,119 bird individuals) using multiple methods, including qualitative surveys, mist nets, point counts, and line transects). We used four main sources of data: museum collections, on-line databases, literature sources, and unpublished reports. The data set comprises 4,122 localities and data from 1815 to 2017. Most studies were conducted in the Florestas de Interior (1,510 localities) and Serra do Mar (1,280 localities) biogeographic sub-regions. Considering the three main quantitative methods (mist net, point count, and line transect), we compiled abundance data for 745 species in 576 communities. In the data set, the most frequent species were Basileuterus culicivorus, Cyclaris gujanensis, and Conophaga lineata. There were 71 singletons, such as Lipaugus conditus and Calyptura cristata. We suggest that this small number of records reinforces the critical situation of these taxa in the Atlantic Forest. The information provided in this data set can be used for macroecological studies and to foster conservation strategies in this biodiversity hotspot. No copyright restrictions are associated with the data set. Please cite this Data Paper if data are used in publications and teaching events.

Non-volant mammals from the Upper Paraná River Basin: a data set from a critical region for conservation in Brazil.

The data set represents the first attempt at a large-scale inventory of non-volant mammals, with potential applications to performing macroecological studies, developing conservation strategies, and undertaking population and community ecology research, but also to evaluate the ecological consequences of fragmentation and defaunation. Our objectives for compiling these data were to summarize information about inventories of non-volant mammals in the critically important area of the Upper Paraná River Basin by focusing on species richness and index of frequency of occurrence and to identify gaps in knowledge regarding non-volant mammal communities in order to guide future sampling efforts. The data set comprises studies on communities of non-volant mammals from 52 locations covering more than 1,000km2 and comprises portion of four Brazilian states in the Upper Paraná River Basin. We listed 81 species of non-volant mammals distributed among 58 genera, 22 families, and 9 orders. Rodentia (28 species) was the richest order, followed by Carnivora (17 spp.) and Didelphimorphia (15 spp.). The richest family was Cricetidae (20 spp.), followed by Didelphidae (15 spp.), and Dasypodidae and Felidae (six spp.). Considering national conservation status, one species are considered endangered and 16 vulnerable. Considering global conservation status, 7 species are considered vulnerable, 10 are considered near threatened, and 6 are data deficient. According to the index of frequency of occurrence, Myrmecophaga tridactyla was the most frequent species, occurring at 88.64% of all sites, while 25 species were considered very restricted, occurring in just 2.56% of all sites. In general, the non-volant mammal fauna was composed of mainly very restricted (VR,25 species) and localized species (L,25 species), which account for 61.7% of the known species, while 38.3% are restricted (R,8 species), common (C,16 species), and widespread (W,7 species). Seven marsupials and five small rodents had their distributions extended in the central-south of Brazil. All of these species are considered data deficient or threatened, which highlights the importance of these records. No copyright restrictions are associated with the use of this data set. Please cite this data paper when the data are used in publications. We also request that researchers and teachers inform us of how they are using the data.

The dark side of Lepidoptera: Colour lightness of geometrid moths decreases with increasing latitude

AbstractAimThe observed decrease in insect colour lightness with increasing latitude has been explained in earlier macroecological studies by the increased solar absorption of dark coloration, which allows extended periods of activity. However, melanin‐based dark coloration also protects against pathogens and ultraviolet radiation, which select for dark coloration at low latitudes where these selection pressures intensify. In nocturnal insects, the relative importance of these protective functions of dark coloration is expected to surpass thermoregulatory functions, as nocturnal species cannot benefit from extended periods of activity during the daytime. Hence, we expected that diurnal and nocturnal insects show contrasting geographical patterns of colour lightness. We tested these predictions using geometrid moths, which comprise both diurnal and nocturnal species.LocationWestern Palearctic.Time periodContemporary.Major taxa studiedGeometridae (Lepidoptera).MethodsWe used digital image analysis to assess the colour lightness of 637 species, compiled their distribution across 3,777 grid cells of 50 km × 50 km and calculated the assemblage‐based average colour lightness. We used multiple regressions, autoregressive error models and randomizations to test for relationships between colour lightness and environmental variables associated with the thermal environment, putative pathogen pressure and ultraviolet radiation.ResultsWe found a clear decrease in colour lightness of assemblages of both diurnal and nocturnal moth species with increasing latitude. In every model, solar radiation was the most important predictor of colour lightness; that is, colour lightness consistently increased with increasing solar radiation.Main conclusionsThese results indicate that the thermal environment is the most influential climatic driver of insect colour lightness—independent of thermoregulatory strategy and nocturnal or diurnal activity. This challenges the view that extended periods of activity are the main selection pressure for geographical variation in insect colour lightness. Consequently, the relationship between insect colour lightness and the thermal environment might be more general than previously thought.

Paintings predict the distribution of species, or the challenge of selecting environmental predictors and evaluation statistics

AbstractAimSpecies distribution modelling, a family of statistical methods that predicts species distributions from a set of occurrences and environmental predictors, is now routinely applied in many macroecological studies. However, the reliability of evaluation metrics usually employed to validate these models remains questioned. Moreover, the emergence of online databases of environmental variables with global coverage, especially climatic, has favoured the use of the same set of standard predictors. Unfortunately, the selection of variables is too rarely based on a careful examination of the species' ecology. In this context, our aim was to highlight the importance of selecting ad hoc variables in species distribution models, and to assess the ability of classical evaluation statistics to identify models with no biological realism.InnovationFirst, we reviewed the current practices in the field of species distribution modelling in terms of variable selection and model evaluation. Then, we computed distribution models of 509 European species using pseudo‐predictors derived from paintings or using a real set of climatic and topographic predictors. We calculated model performance based on the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS), partitioning occurrences into training and test data with different levels of spatial independence. Most models computed from pseudo‐predictors were classified as good and sometimes were even better evaluated than models computed using real environmental variables. However, on average they were better discriminated when the partitioning of occurrences allowed testing for model transferability.Main conclusionsThese findings confirm the crucial importance of variable selection and the inability of current evaluation metrics to assess the biological significance of distribution models. We recommend that researchers carefully select variables according to the species' ecology and evaluate models only according to their capacity to be transfered in distant areas. Nevertheless, statistics of model evaluations must still be interpreted with great caution.

Taxonomic decomposition of the latitudinal gradient in species diversity of North American floras

AbstractAimTo test the latitudinal gradient in plant species diversity for self‐similarity across taxonomic scales and amongst taxa.LocationNorth America.MethodsWe used species richness data from 245 local vascular plant floras to quantify the slope and shape of the latitudinal gradients in species diversity (LGSD) across all plant species as well as within each family and order. We calculated the contribution of each family and order to the empirical LGSD.ResultsWe observed the canonical LGSD when all plants were considered with floras at the lowest latitudes having, on average, 451 more species than floras at the highest latitudes. When considering slope alone, most orders and families showed the expected negative slope, but 31.7% of families and 27.7% of orders showed either no significant relationship between latitude and diversity or a reverse LGSD. Latitudinal patterns of family diversity account for at least 14% of this LGSD. Most orders and families did not show the negative slope and concave‐down quadratic shape expected by the pattern for all plant species. A majority of families did not make a significant contribution in species to the LGSD with 53% of plant families contributing little to nothing to the overall gradient. Ten families accounted for more than 70% of the gradient. Two families, the Asteraceae and Fabaceae, contributed a third of the LGSD.Main ConclusionsThe empirical LGSD we describe here is a consequence of a gradient in the number of families and diversification within relative few plant families. Macroecological studies typically aim to generate models that are general across taxa with the implicit assumption that the models are general within taxa. Our results strongly suggest that models of the latitudinal gradient in plant species richness that rely on environmental covariates (e.g. temperature, energy) are likely not general across plant taxa.

The Bat Fauna from Southwestern Brazil and Its Affinities with the Fauna of Western Amazon

Historically for bats, the southwestern Brazilian Amazon has had scant biological data available, which compromised large-scale comparisons and macroecological studies that could support conservation initiatives in the area. We tested faunal similarity among 26 well-sampled bat assemblages distributed throughout the Amazon, including our database from surveys in the upper Madeira River region, a core area of the southwestern Brazilian Amazon. To document bats we conducted nocturnal mist-net sampling under standardized Rapid Assessments for Long-term Ecological Research (RAPELD) protocols in forests and farmlands, and diurnal search of roosts in rocky outcrops located along the riverbed of the Madeira River. We captured 2930 bats representing 66 species, 20 of which were previously unreported for the region. Thirty-four species recorded were exclusive to forests, and two to the rocky outcrops of the Madeira River. Frugivores outnumbered the other trophic guilds, followed by the gleaning insectivores in for...

Effects of UV-B radiation on leaf hair traits of invasive plants-Combining historical herbarium records with novel remote sensing data.

Ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation is a key but under-researched environmental factor that initiates diverse responses in plants, potentially affecting their distribution. To date, only a few macroecological studies have examined adaptations of plant species to different levels of UV-B. Here, we combined herbarium specimens of Hieracium pilosella L. and Echium vulgare L. with a novel UV-B dataset to examine differences in leaf hair traits between the plants’ native and alien ranges. We analysed scans of 336 herbarium specimens using standardized measurements of leaf area, hair density (both species) and hair length (H. pilosella only). While accounting for other bioclimatic variables (i.e. temperature, precipitation) and effects of herbivory, we examined whether UV-B exposure explains the variability and geographical distribution of these traits in the native (Northern Hemisphere) vs. the alien (Southern Hemisphere) range. UV-B explained the largest proportion of the variability and geographical distribution of hair length in H. pilosella (relative influence 67.1%), and hair density in E. vulgare (66.2%). Corresponding with higher UV-B, foliar hairs were 25% longer for H. pilosella and 25% denser for E. vulgare in records from the Southern as compared to those from the Northern Hemisphere. However, focusing on each hemisphere separately or controlling for its effect in a regression analysis, we found no apparent influence of UV-B radiation on hair traits. Thus, our findings did not confirm previous experimental studies which suggested that foliar hairs may respond to higher UV-B intensities, presumably offering protection against detrimental levels of radiation. We cannot rule out UV-B radiation as a possible driver because UV-B radiation was the only considered variable that differed substantially between the hemispheres, while bioclimatic conditions (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and other considered variables (herbivory damage, collection date) were at similar levels. However, given that either non-significant or inconclusive relationships were detected within hemispheres, alternative explanations of the differences in foliar hairs are more likely, including the effects of environment, genotypes or herbivory.

Seasonality, species richness and poor dispersion mediate intraspecific trait variability in stonefly community responses along an elevational gradient

Summary Across environmental gradients, some functional strategies are favoured over others resulting in differences in local species composition and distribution of any given functional trait. This generates among‐Species Trait Variability (STV) across the gradient (reflecting species turnover), as well as spatial Intraspecific Trait Variability (ITV), which together contribute to Community Trait Variability (CTV). Understanding functional trait responses of freshwater biota is critical for elucidating the mechanisms that operate during community assembly and addressing community level responses to climate warming. In freshwater insects, temperature and ecological conditions regulate growth rates. Here, we examined size‐related trait variability components of short‐dispersing stoneflies (Insecta: Plecoptera) within and among multispecies stonefly assemblages (henceforth referred to as communities), located along an elevational gradient in Sierra Nevada (Spain) to assess the components of trait‐elevation matching (STV, ITV, CTV). Relative to downstream reaches, headwaters hypothetically show greater internal physical habitat heterogeneity (large exposed rocks, tree roots, woody debris) and greater local species richness of cool‐water adapted stoneflies. As a result, we expected CTV to increase with elevation, with a higher contribution of STV than ITV in upper reaches due to higher species richness and trait divergence among them. In contrast, the pattern of ITV should vary depending on whether the main driver across elevation is species richness (decrease due to niche partitioning) or ecological conditions (increase associated to physical habitat heterogeneity). Eleven streams were sampled every 2 weeks over 1 year and five size‐related traits were measured on 6,893 individuals belonging to 16 species. Overall, STV made a much larger contribution to CTV than ITV, which only became an important contributor in species‐poor assemblages, especially in winter and autumn. Within each season, the trait‐elevation matching was weak. Functional species‐specific responses to the elevational gradient most often did not mirror the response of the entire communities, since highly variable (and even opposed or discontinuous) contributions to ITV were found across species. Overall, ITV contributed little to trait‐elevation matching, which suggests high vulnerability of short‐dispersing stoneflies to habitat shifting associated to future climate warming due to limited phenotypic plasticity. Moreover, varying functional trait patterns across species emphasise species‐specific responses to climate change as opposed to a unique whole community response. However, further trait‐based macroecological studies across freshwater macroinvertebrates lineages are needed to compare patterns and establish generalisations.

The French Mus\xe9um national d\u2019histoire naturelle vascular plant herbarium collection dataset

We provide a quantitative description of the French national herbarium vascular plants collection dataset. Held at the Muséum national d’histoire naturelle, Paris, it currently comprises records for 5,400,000 specimens, representing 90% of the estimated total of specimens. Ninety nine percent of the specimen entries are linked to one or more images and 16% have field-collecting information available. This major botanical collection represents the results of over three centuries of exploration and study. The sources of the collection are global, with a strong representation for France, including overseas territories, and former French colonies. The compilation of this dataset was made possible through numerous national and international projects, the most important of which was linked to the renovation of the herbarium building. The vascular plant collection is actively expanding today, hence the continuous growth exhibited by the dataset, which can be fully accessed through the GBIF portal or the MNHN database portal (available at: https://science.mnhn.fr/institution/mnhn/collection/p/item/search/form). This dataset is a major source of data for systematics, global plants macroecological studies or conservation assessments.

Physico-chemical thresholds in the distribution of fish species among French lakes

The management of lakes requires the definition of physico-chemical thresholds to be used for ecosystem preservation or restoration. According to the European Water Framework Directive, the limits between physico-chemical quality classes must be set consistently with biological quality elements. One way to do this consists in analyzing the response of aquatic communities to environmental gradients across monitoring sites and in identifying ecological community thresholds, i.e. zones in the gradients where the species turnover is the highest. In this study, fish data from 196 lakes in France were considered to derive ecological thresholds using the multivariate method of gradient forest. The analysis was performed on 25 species and 36 environmental parameters. The results revealed the highest importance of maximal water temperature in the distribution of fish species. Other important parameters included geographical factors, dissolved organic carbon concentration and water transparency, while nutrients appeared to have low influence. In spite of the diversity of species responses to the gradients, community thresholds were detected in the gradients of the most important physico-chemical parameters and of total phosphorus and nitrate concentrations as well. The thresholds identified in such macroecological study may highlight new patterns of species natural distribution and improve niche characterization. Moreover, when factors that may be influenced by human activities are involved, the thresholds could be used to set environmental standards for lake preservation.

In Memoriam

In Memoriam

Distribution and diversity of reptiles in Albania: a novel database from a Mediterranean hotspot

Although Albania has a rich reptile fauna, efforts to reveal its diversity have so far been limited. To fill this gap, we collected available published and unpublished (museum collections, online sources) records of reptile occurrences and conducted several expeditions to search for reptiles in areas with few or no previous records. Our georeferenced database contains 3731 records of 40 species from between 1918 and 2015. Based on this comprehensive dataset, we prepared distribution maps for each reptile species of the country. Applying spatial statistics, we revealed that overall sampling effort was clustered, with hotspots associated with easily accessible areas and natural heritage sites. The maximum number of species per cell was 26 with an average of seven. Cells harbouring large reptile diversity were located along the Adriatic and Ionian coasts, on the western slopes of south Albanian mountains, i.e. in areas generally considered as Balkans biodiversity hotspots or potential historical refugia. We found that species presence and diversity is strongly influenced by landscape features. Diversity of land cover, altitudinal variation, temperature and precipitation variation explained the observed pattern in our models. Our study presents the largest database of reptile occurrences to date and is the first to analyse reptile diversity patterns in Albania. The database and the diversity patterns can provide a basis for future macroecological studies and conservation planning.

It's About Time: A Critique of Macroecological Inferences Concerning Plant Competition

Several macroecological studies have used static spatial data to evaluate plant competition in natural ecosystems and to investigate its role in plant community dynamics and species assembly. The assumptions on which the inferences are based have not been consistent with ecological knowledge. Inferences about processes, such as competition, from static data are weak. Macroecology will benefit more from dynamic data, even if limited, than from increasingly sophisticated analyses of static spatial patterns.

Trade-offs between microbiome diversity and productivity in a stratified microbial mat.

Productivity is a major determinant of ecosystem diversity. Microbial ecosystems are the most diverse on the planet yet very few relationships between diversity and productivity have been reported as compared with macro-ecological studies. Here we evaluated the spatial relationships of productivity and microbiome diversity in a laboratory-cultivated photosynthetic mat. The goal was to determine how spatial diversification of microorganisms drives localized carbon and energy acquisition rates. We measured sub-millimeter depth profiles of net primary productivity and gross oxygenic photosynthesis in the context of the localized microenvironment and community structure, and observed negative correlations between species richness and productivity within the energy-replete, photic zone. Variations between localized community structures were associated with distinct taxa as well as environmental profiles describing a continuum of biological niches. Spatial regions in the photic zone corresponding to high primary productivity and photosynthesis rates had relatively low-species richness and high evenness. Hence, this system exhibited negative species-productivity and species-energy relationships. These negative relationships may be indicative of stratified, light-driven microbial ecosystems that are able to be the most productive with a relatively smaller, even distributions of species that specialize within photic zones.

Altitudinal patterns of plant diversity on the Jade Dragon Snow Mountain, southwestern China.

BackgroundUnderstanding altitudinal patterns of biological diversity and their underlying mechanisms is critically important for biodiversity conservation in mountainous regions. The contribution of area to plant diversity patterns is widely acknowledged and may mask the effects of other determinant factors. In this context, it is important to examine altitudinal patterns of corrected taxon richness by eliminating the area effect. Here we adopt two methods to correct observed taxon richness: a power-law relationship between richness and area, hereafter “method 1”; and richness counted in equal-area altitudinal bands, hereafter “method 2”. We compare these two methods on the Jade Dragon Snow Mountain, which is the nearest large-scale altitudinal gradient to the Equator in the Northern Hemisphere.ResultsWe find that seed plant species richness, genus richness, family richness, and species richness of trees, shrubs, herbs and Groups I–III (species with elevational range size <150, between 150 and 500, and >500 m, respectively) display distinct hump-shaped patterns along the equal-elevation altitudinal gradient. The corrected taxon richness based on method 2 (TRcor2) also shows hump-shaped patterns for all plant groups, while the one based on method 1 (TRcor1) does not. As for the abiotic factors influencing the patterns, mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and mid-domain effect explain a larger part of the variation in TRcor2 than in TRcor1.ConclusionsIn conclusion, for biodiversity patterns on the Jade Dragon Snow Mountain, method 2 preserves the significant influences of abiotic factors to the greatest degree while eliminating the area effect. Our results thus reveal that although the classical method 1 has earned more attention and approval in previous research, method 2 can perform better under certain circumstances. We not only confirm the essential contribution of method 1 in community ecology, but also highlight the significant role of method 2 in eliminating the area effect, and call for more application of method 2 in further macroecological studies.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3052-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.