Macro Aggregates Research Articles

Global Bad and Good Uncertainties and Their Impact on Macro Aggregates and Stock Returns

This paper estimates global bad and good uncertainties from monthly data on industrial production from a large set of countries. Bad and good uncertainties have opposite effects on macro aggregates and stock returns. An increase in bad uncertainty adversely impacts both, while an increase in good uncertainty has positive effects. This holds for many considered countries. Furthermore, global uncertainties help to explain stock returns in the cross-section. The pricing performance of the global CAPM and two-factor model of Fama and French (1998) always improve if the pricing factors are scaled with global uncertainties. Bad uncertainty is important in conomic distress times. In contrast, good uncertainty helps to explain returns in calm times. Overall, the results highlight the opposite effect of bad and good uncertainty and show that both are key drivers of real economies and financial markets.

Water-stable aggregates and aggregate-associated organic carbon and nitrogen after three annual applications of poultry manure and spent mushroom wastes

Water stable aggregates influence mechanisms for both water and fertility conservation and nutrient release in the soil. The effect of application of different organic amendments on aggregate stability and carbon-nitrogen storage within aggregates of a degraded soil was studied. The treatments were: control (P0S0), no amendments, 5tha−1 poultry manure (P5S0), 10tha−1 poultry manure (P10S0), 5tha−1 spent mushroom waste (P0S5), 10tha−1 spent mushroom waste (P0S10) and 5tha−1 each of poultry manure and spent mushroom waste (P5S5) applied in three consecutive years. These were arranged in randomized complete block design in five replicates. Soil samples were collected from the topsoil (0–20cm), air-dried and separated into 4.75–2.0, 2.0–1.0, 1.0–0.5, 0.5–0.25, and <0.25mm aggregate classes by dry sieving. Results showed that P5S5 increased macro aggregates >0.25mm and mean weight diameter (MWD) over other treatments. Saturated hydraulic conductivities (Ksat) were 17.55cmhr−1 and 16.28cmhr−1 in P5S0 and P0S10 amended soils, respectively. Generally, spent mushroom waste (SMW) and poultry manure (PM) significantly (p<0.05) reduced bulk density and increased total porosity, indicating positive effects of SMW and PM as soil amendments. Total nitrogen (N) concentrations in aggregate classes were significantly higher in soils amended with PM and SMW than the control. The P10S0 treatment had the highest concentrations of N (1.51gkg−1) in 1.0–0.5mm aggregates size class. Soil organic carbon (SOC) was preferentially higher in larger aggregates >2mm and in smaller aggregates <0.25mm irrespective of treatments, whereas, total N was higher in aggregates >0.5mm in PM amended soils. In all the treatments, SOC was enriched in larger aggregates than smaller aggregates. Poultry manure improved soil structure, aggregate-associated OC and total N than SMW. However, SMW has the potentials for use as soil amendment because it showed positive effects on soil structure and soil C-N storage.

Income and Wealth Sample Estimates Consistent with Macro Aggregates: Some Experiments

The Bank of Italy’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) is widely used to study the economic behavior of Italian households. Like most similar surveys, the SHIW is biased downward in its estimates by the lesser propensity of wealthy families to participate and by the tendency to underreport income and wealth. This work assesses the various techniques for correct the bias, applying them to the period 1995-2012. Calibration techniques, which produce estimates consistent with the macro-economic information available from other sources, are also employed.

Pedogenesis in mine tails affects macroporosity, hydrological properties, and pollutant flow

Mining activities take a direct impact on the environment, particularly when this activity is focused on metal-ore exploitation. Abandoned metal mine areas contain different types of residues from ore-processing operations that are typically characterized by high concentrations of heavy metals. One consequence is the generation of acid-mine drainage, caused by the oxidation and hydrolysis of metal sulphides. Mine tail soils have been studied under several points of view, but not on how crack formation affects their properties and functioning, before irreversible hardening. The Cartagena–La Union mining district is one of the more ancient Spanish mining regions. This region is placed at the south-eastern part of Spain, and contains one of the largest lead and zinc ore deposits in South Europe, which was exploited for Au, Ag, Pb, Zn, Fe and Cu from the Phoenician and Carthaginian times. The aim of this research work was to characterize the pedogenesis that occurred in mine tailings of different age and properties, to highlight the physical and hydrological changes that occurred as a consequence of pedogenesis, and their consequences on the environmental pollution risk. Soil profile morphology was studied in the field likewise the surficial pattern of cracks, shear strength, bulk density, and erosion. Laboratory analyses were conducted to characterize physical, chemical, elemental, mineralogical, and hydrological differences between the soil mass in the macro aggregates and in the fissures. Macroporosity was studied through image analysis of thin sections of undisturbed soil samples. X-ray diffraction (XRD) was performed on the clay fraction. Studied soils resulted strongly polluted, especially as for Zn, Pb, Cd, Cl, Mn, and Ni and were classified as different kinds of Spolic Technosol. Crack formation significantly affected shear strength, bulk density, macroporosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and element distribution. Gully and tunnel erosion was also driven by crack formation. The mineralogy of the clay fraction revealed that smectites are present, favouring crack opening. Crack formation deeply affected soil features and behaviour, namely hydrological properties and flow of pollutants, which in turn condition environmental health and possible soil stabilization and reclamation strategies.

ZEOLITE: "THE MAGIC STONE"; MAIN NUTRITIONAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, EXPERIMENTAL AND CLINICAL FIELDS OF APPLICATION.

zeolites (clinoptilolites) are a family of alluminosilicates and cations clustered to form macro aggregates by small individual cavities. In the medical area they are involved in detoxification mechanisms capturing ions and molecules into their holes. Actually, we classify about 140 types of natural and 150 synthetic zeolites, for specific and selective use. Clinoptilolite is a natural zeolite and it is the most widespread compound in the medical market. this review analyzes the main fields of zeolite utilization. we searched Pubmed/Medline using the terms "zeolite" and "clinoptilolite". in zoothechnology and veterinary medicine zeolite improves the pets' fitness, removes radioactive elements, aflatoxines and poisons. Zeolite displays also antioxidant, whitening, hemostatic and anti-diarrhoic properties, projected in human care. However very scanty clinical studies have been run up to now in immunodeficiency, oncology after chemotherapy and radiotherapy as adjuvants. further clinical investigations are urgently required after this review article publication which updates the state of the art.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of runoff and soil loss dynamics under simulated rainfall

The factors aff ecting soil erosion processes are complex and various, comprises two phases: detachment and transport by water. Previous studies indicated that initial moisture content, slope and soil crusts are playing an important role in soil erosion. The primary objectives of this study were to examine the sediment concentration and aggregate size distribution of the washed sediment. Aims were also to create diff erent season specifi cally modelled situations in order to check runoff rates on bare soils under heavy rainfall. The experiments were conducted with a laboratory-scale rainfall simulator using a 1/2 HH 40 WSQ fulljet nozzle on eutric calcaric Cambisol loamic. Altogether, 72 soil loss samples were collected (6 separate precipitations, 3 time periods, 4 particle size fractions). The experiments indicated that the runoff rate was not increased by the presence of soil crusts, and even less sediment occurs on crusted surfaces. This sediment contained smaller fractions compared to recently tilled surface. The sediment concentration increased with the slope angle, but the runoff rates probably depend rather on the micro-morphology and initial moisture content of the surface. The main erosion process is the raindrop erosion after inland inundation and drought in gentle slopes, while the intermediate period of the precipitation is the most erosive. In general, the ratio of the macro aggregates in soil losses decrease and the ratio of the smaller fractions increase with the time during a precipitation event. Changing climate conditions are shown to have an eff ect on agricultural production through the temporal and spatial distribution of the erosion rates.

Soil organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus distribution in stable aggregates of an Ultisol under contrasting land use and management history

AbstractDifferent land‐use affects the organization of mineral soil particles and soil organic components into aggregates and the consequent arrangement of the aggregates will influence essential ecosystem functions. We investigated a continuous rubber plantation (forested), land fallowed for 10 y (fallow), 10‐y continuous arable cropping land and cropped land with top soil removed (TSR) for concentrations of C, N, and P in bulk soil and dry aggregates. Results showed that a high level of soil disturbance decreased the proportion of surface (0–15 cm) soil aggregate stability (low mean weight diameter) in TSR by 149% and arable cropping by 125% compared with the forested. Aggregate associated SOC was higher in aggregate‐size fractions of forested land‐use when compared with that in 10‐y fallow, continuous arable cropping, and TSR. For aggregate associated N, fallow and forested land‐use types concentrated higher proportion across aggregate sizes than the arable cropping and TSR. Macro aggregate fractions generally contained higher concentrations of C, N, and P compared with the micro‐aggregates. Water transmission indicators like total porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity recorded higher values with forested and fallow land‐use than the others. We can thus conclude that long‐term soil disturbance due to cultivation and removal of top soil reduces the accumulation of soil C, N, and P in bulk soil and decreases water transmission properties. On the other hand, aggregate‐associated C, N and P accumulations are dependent on the level of soil surface disturbance and aggregate sizes.

Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences

Standard macro models fail to explain why real exchange rates are volatile and disconnected from macro aggregates. Recent research argues that models with persistent growth rate shocks and recursive preferences can solve that puzzle. I show that this result is highly sensitive to the structure of financial markets. When just a bond is traded internationally, then long-run risk generates insufficient exchange rate volatility. A long-run risk model with recursive preferences may generate realistic exchange rate volatility, if all agents efficiently share their consumption risk by trading in complete financial markets; however, this entails massive international wealth transfers, and excessive swings in net foreign asset positions. By contrast, a long-run risk, recursive-preferences model in which only a fraction of households trades in complete markets, while the remaining households lead hand-to-mouth lives, can generate realistic exchange rate and external balance volatility.

Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach

This study aims to reveal the causality relations between the macro aggregates that affect current deficit using conditional and partial Granger causality test. Current deficit/GDP, growth rate, real effective exchange rate, direct foreign capital investment, openness, and energy import were selected as variables for this purpose. 2003.1-2014.2 quarterly data for Turkey's economy were used for analysis. The results of the conditional and partial Granger causality test demonstrate that real effective exchange rate is the variable with greatest impact on current deficit/GDP. Exchange rate is followed by the growth rate, energy import, and openness variables. And direct foreign capital investment is the variable with the least impact.

Measurement of soil aggregate stability using low intensity ultrasonic vibration

The objective of this study was to analyse the influence of tillage on soil aggregate stability using the ultrasonic dispersion method with different levels of energy. Experiments are performed with self-developed equipment at low vibration amplitudes of 0.5 μm, 2 μm and 5 μm. Ultrasonic power is 0.7 W, 8.9 W and 22.3 W for the three amplitudes. Samples of aggregates 2 000 - 250 μm of a degraded loamy silt Chernozem, a loamy clay Cambisol and a loamy sand Cambisol from eastern Austria were collected under different tillage regimes: conventional tillage (CT) with mechanical weed control and no tillage (NT) with inter cropping in winter. Measuring Soil Aggregate Stability (SAS) according to DIN norm showed that the stability decreased in the sequence loamy clay Cambisol &amp;gt; loamy sand Cambisol &amp;gt; loamy silt Chernozem. Influences of tillage could be observed with SAS for the last two samples mentioned. Ultrasonic dispersion tests at vibration amplitude 0.5 μm and 2 μm show higher stability of the Cambisol soils. Significant influences of soil tillage on aggregate stability for the loamy clay Cambisol and the degraded Chernozem were observed after short ultrasonic dispersion times and absorbed energies of 1 - 1.7 J ml&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;. The measured aggregate stability decreased in the following order: Cambisol NT &amp;gt; Cambisol CT &amp;gt; Chernozem NT &amp;gt; Chernozem CT. Differences in loamy sand Cambisol could not be detected with the ultrasonic method due to a low aggregation level of the macro aggregates. This study highlights the importance of quantifying the energy output of the ultrasonic equipment when analysing changes in soil aggregate stability, for the evaluation of tillage treatments. A more comprehensive analysis of aggregate stability can be obtained when using both, the wet-sieving SAS method and ultrasonic dispersion at low energy levels.

Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity in Integrated Economies

What are the macroeconomic effects of tax adjustments in response to large public debt shocks in highly integrated economies? The answer from standard closed-economy models is deceptive, because they underestimate the elasticity of capital tax revenues and ignore cross-country spillovers of tax changes. Instead, we examine this issue using a two-country model that matches the observed elasticity of the capital tax base by introducing endogenous capacity utilization and a partial depreciation allowance. Tax hikes have adverse effects on macro aggregates and welfare, and trigger strong cross-country externalities. Quantitative analysis calibrated to European data shows that unilateral capital tax increases cannot restore fiscal solvency, because the dynamic Laffer curve peaks below the required revenue increase. Unilateral labor tax hikes can do it, but have negative output and welfare effects at home and raise welfare and output abroad. Large spillovers also imply that unilateral capital tax hikes are much less costly under autarky than under free trade. Allowing for one-shot Nash tax competition, the model predicts a “race to the bottom” in capital taxes and higher labor taxes. The cooperative equilibrium is preferable, but capital (labor) taxes are still lower (higher) than initially. Moreover, autarky can produce higher welfare than both Nash and Cooperative equilibria.

Soil ecosystem services and land use in the rapidly changing Orinoco River Basin of Colombia

In the Orinoco River Basin of eastern Colombia large scale and rapid conversion of natural savannas into commercial agriculture exists as a critical threat for the ecological integrity of this fragile region. The highly acidic and compacted soils inherent to this region require thorough physical and chemical conditioning in order for intensive cropping systems to be established. Assessing the impact of this dramatic soil perturbation on biodiversity, ecosystem services and other elements of the natural capital is an urgent task for designing sustainable management options in the region. To address this need, we evaluated soil macro invertebrate communities and soil-based ecosystem services (climate regulation, hydrologic functions, soil stability provided by macro aggregation and nutrient provision potential) in four major production systems: improved pastures, annual crops (rice, corn and soy bean), oil palm and rubber plantations, and compared them to the original savanna. Fifteen plots of each system were sampled along a 200km natural gradient of soil and climatic conditions. In each plot, we assessed climate regulation by measuring green house gas emissions (N2O, CH4 and CO2) and C storage in aboveground plant biomass and soil (0–20cm). Soil biodiversity (macro invertebrate communities) and three other soil-based ecosystem services, were assessed using sets of 12–20 relevant variables associated with each service and synthesized via multivariate analyses into a single indicator for each ecosystem function, adjusted in a range of 0.1–1.0. Savannas yielded intermediate values for most indicators, while each production system appeared to improve at least one ecosystem service. For example, nutrient provision (chemical fertility) was highest in annual cropping systems (0.78±0.03) due to relatively high concentrations of Ca, Mg, N, K, and available P and low Al saturation. Hydrological functions and climate regulation (C storage and GHG emissions) were generally improved by perennial crops (oil palm and rubber), while indicators for macro invertebrate biodiversity and activity (0.73±0.05) and soil macro aggregation (0.76±0.02) were highest within improved pastures. High variability within each system indicates the potential to make improvements in fields with lowest indicator values, while differences among systems suggest the potential to mitigate negative impacts by combining plots with contrasted functions in a strategically designed landscape mosaic.

International Financial Integration and Crisis Contagion

International financial integration helps to diversify risk but also may increase the transmission of crises across countries. We provide a quantitative analysis of this trade-off in a two-country general equilibrium model with endogenous portfolio choice and collateral constraints. Collateral constraints bind occasionally, depending upon the state of the economy and levels of inherited debt. The analysis allows for different degrees of financial integration, moving from financial autarky to bond market integration and equity market integration. Financial integration leads to a significant increase in global leverage, doubles the probability of balance sheet crises for any one country, and dramatically increases the degree of `contagion' across countries. Outside of crises, the impact of financial integration on macro aggregates is relatively small. But the impact of a crisis with integrated international financial markets is much less severe than that under financial market autarky. Thus, a trade-off emerges between the probability of crises and the severity of crises. Financial integration can raise or lower welfare, depending on the scale of macroeconomic risk. In particular, in a low risk environment, the increased leverage resulting from financial integration can reduce welfare of investors.

Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences

Standard macro models cannot explain why real exchange rates are volatile and disconnected from macro aggregates. Recent research argues that models with persistent growth rate shocks and recursive preferences can solve that puzzle. I show that this result is highly sensitive to the structure of financial markets. When just a bond is traded internationally, then long-run risk generates insufficient exchange rate volatility. A long-run risk model with recursive-preferences can generate realistic exchange rate volatility, if all agents efficiently share their consumption risk by trading in complete financial markets; however, this entails massive international wealth transfers, and excessive swings in net foreign asset positions. By contrast, a long-run risk, recursive preferences model in which only a fraction of households trades in complete markets, while the remaining households lead hand-to-mouth lives, can generate realistic exchange rate and external balance volatility.

Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences

Standard macro models cannot explain why real exchange rates are volatile and disconnected from macro aggregates. Recent research argues that models with persistent growth rate shocks and recursive preferences can solve that puzzle. I show that this result is highly sensitive to the structure of financial markets. When just a bond can be traded internationally, then long-run risk generates insufficient exchange rate volatility. A longrun risk model with recursive-preferences in which all agents trade in complete global financial markets can generate realistic exchange rate volatility; however, I show that this entails huge international wealth transfers, and excessive swings in net foreign asset positions. By contrast, a long-run risk, recursive-preferences model in which only a small fraction of households trades in complete markets, while the remaining households lead hand-to-mouth lives, generates realistic exchange rate and external balance volatility

Uticaj konvencionalne obrade i direktne setve na strukturu zemljišta

Maintaining good and creating a favourable soil structure is a prerequisite for achieving high and stable yield of cultivated plants agricultural crops. Unfavourable structure reduces the infiltration rate and permeability of soil, increases evaporation, decreases aeration, enables crust formation and intensifies erosion processes. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of conventional tillage and direct sowing - no till on share and stability of macro aggregates in chernozem as well as impact of humus content on the stability of macro aggregates in a layer 0-30 cm. The higher amount of macro aggregates >5 mm in the soil was determined after direct sowing system - no till compared to conventional tillage. The structure coefficient was more favourable in the conventional tillage (Ks = 5.68) as compared to a no till system (Ks = 3.16). A larger amount of stable aggregates >2000 μm was found in direct sowing system, while in conventional tillage aggregates <2000 μm were more stable. The mean weight diameter of stable aggregates (MWD) were significantly higher in the direct sowing system - no till (MWD = 2417 µm) compared to conventional tillage (MWD = 1512 µm). In temperate climatic conditions direct sowing system should be combined with conventional tillage in order to ensure favourable soil structure.

Structural Characteristics and Stability of the Aggregates in the Orchard Soils with Different Cultivation Years in Northern China

With dry sieving and wet sieving methods, we studied the distribution characteristics and stability of the aggregates in the typical orchard soils with different cultivation years in northern China under long-term freezing-thawing conditions. The results show that: the contents of the aggregates with particle size above 10 mm or between 0.25 and 10 mm are significantly increased with cultivation years and annual growth rates were respectively 1.28% and 0.078%. Fractal dimension in the orchard soils was gradually decreased and lower than that in uncultivated area near the orchard in corresponding cultivation year. MWD of orchard soils shows annual increasing trend of 0.76%. The content of the water stable macro aggregates in orchard soils was increased with the cultivation years and was about 11.65%-20.18% higher than that of uncultivated soils near the orchard. Average annual growth of orchard soils was 0.37%. Fractal dimension was decreased year by year on the water stable macro aggregates. MWD of the water stable macro aggregates was significantly greater than that of uncultivated soils near the orchard and increased with cultivation years. Aggregate destruction rate was gradually decreased to 31.61% of that in the 60th year and annual average decrease rate was 0.91%. Soil bulk density was gradually decreased.

Carbon sequestration in the soils of aquaculture ponds, crop land, and forest land in southern Ohio, USA

Soil samples were collected from four aquaculture ponds (yellow perch culture), a control pond (without aquaculture activities, fallow pond), crop land (under corn), and forest land to estimate the carbon (C) sequestration potential in the Piketon county, Ohio, USA. The averaged total of C was 6.5 ± 2, 8.8 ± 2, 8.53 ± 0.2 and 10.49 ± 1.1 Mg/ha (Mg=10(6)g) in < 0.25 mm fraction; 15.2 ± 2, 16.0 ± 3, 11.49 ± 0.8 and 17.23 ± 3.4 Mg/ha in micro aggregates (0.25-2.5 mm); and 22.1 ± 3, 26.4 ± 3, 12.16 ± 1.6 and 18.51 ± 4.3 Mg/ha in macro aggregates ( > 2.5mm), for aquaculture ponds, control ponds, cropland and forest land, respectively. The soil/sediment C pool followed the order of forest > crop land soils > aquaculture pond soils.

Long-term impacts of residue harvesting on soil quality

Development of the cellulosic bioenergy industry raises the prospect of wide spread stover harvesting in the near future; however, the impact of stover harvesting on soil quality may not be apparent for several years. Here we evaluate the impact of 19 years of either zero or approximately 90% removal of above ground crop residue on soil quality. The 0–5, 5–15, and 15–30cm soil depths of Waukegan silt loam (Typic Hapludoll) from east-central Minnesota were sampled from plots after 12 and 7 years of maize and soybean cropping, respectively. On average for the 0–5 and 5–15cm depths, soil organic C was 12% less, total N was 12.6% less, N mineralization potential was 27.7% less, cation exchange capacity was 7.3% less, macro aggregation was 13.0% less, and total respiration was 12.3% less for plots with residue harvesting relative to plots where residue was not harvested. Minimal impacts of residue harvesting were apparent for the 15–30cm soil samples, except N mineralization potential which was 28% lower for plots with residue harvesting. Declines in soil quality indicators due to residue harvesting were only slightly less severe for no-tillage plots relative to chisel and moldboard plow tillage plots. We conclude that harvesting 90% of above ground residue for 19 years resulted in substantial degradation of soil quality, and that the impact on N mineralization potential was substantially larger than the loss of total N, suggesting that labile organic N was selectively depleted. We also conclude that stover harvesting for bioenergy production could cause similar degradation of soil quality unless management practices that increase C inputs to soils are also implemented.

The impact of classes of innovators on technology, financial fragility, and economic growth

In this article, we study innovation processes and technological change in an agent-based model. By including a behavioral switching among heterogeneous innovative firms, the model is able to replicate, via simulations, well-known industrial dynamic and growth type stylized facts. The main original element of the model is that firms are allowed to endogenously change among three different classes, namely, single innovators, collaborative innovators, and imitators. Moreover, our analysis focuses on the impact of these three innovation categories on micro, meso, and macro aggregates. We find that collaborative companies are those having the highest positive impact on the economic system. Furthermore, we have paid particular attention to the role of credit market in promoting smart growth. For this purpose, we analyze the role of banks as sources of external funds for innovative entrepreneurs. Our results suggest a trade-off between short-term profit maximization and long-term efficiency, which prevents banks to foster investment in R&D and technological progress. The model is then used to study the effect that different innovation policies have on macroeconomic performance.