Macro Statistics Research Articles

Beyond binary relationship: Multivariant analysis between ride-hailing and public transit based on multi-sourcing data

The impact of ride-hailing (RH) as an emerging mode of travel service on public transit (PT) systems has been confirmed. However, the current research only views the relationship between PT and RH as competition or complementation based on macro statistics and travel time differences. In fact, the relationship is beyond binary, and it is partial to take the travel time difference as the only classification factor. We constructed a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) using RH data in Xi’an, and three indicators of travel time, cost, and service quality difference were used to classify the relationship between RH and PT. To clarify the factors influencing the relationship classifications, a Multinomial logistic model (MNL) was constructed with the built environment, economic factors, and travel purpose. The results show that the RH-PT relationship can be generally classified into four classifications: Competition (26.5%), RH superiority (47.7%), PT superiority (13.6%), and Irrelevance (12.2%). Competition occurs mainly around metro stations, RH superiority mainly during working hours in outer urban areas, and PT superiority is most widely distributed in the morning peak. POI density and the number of bus lines are positively correlated with Competition, RH superiority, and PT superiority. In addition, there is significant spatial heterogeneity in the RH-PT relationship, for which we constructed a Geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to analyze it. We find that the spatial heterogeneity may stem from the spatial autocorrelation and the spatial disparities in the distribution of regression coefficients. Therefore, policymakers should formulate policies to transform competition from multiple perspectives.

The Quality-of-Life Measurement with a Stochastic Choice of Parameters of the Weighted Principal Component

The quality of life of the population is a latent category, and due to the impossibility of direct measurement it has to be assessed as an integral indicator of many variables. According to the established methodology, one of the main tools in this case is the first principal component, that is, a linear convolution of variables, which has the property of minimizing the variation of the original characteristics. The fact that parameters’ variation is taken into account with equal weight may cause criticism from economists. The use of a weighted principal component which is free of this drawback can be considered as a development of the initial method. In this case to minimize the total variation, the weighting coefficients of features are set expertly. However, in this case, a logical question arises: won’t expert subjectivity have a significant impact on the final integral indicator, as it happens in the case of simple linear convolution with expert weights? Thus, the purpose of this work is to test the applicability of the weighted first principal component as the main tool in constructing an integral indicator of the population quality of life. In particular, it is necessary to test the hypothesis that the influence of heterogeneity in the weights of expert assessments on the final integral indicator is insignificant. In this case, it would be useful not only to illustrate the presence or absence of this influence, but also to estimate its extent. To do this, the simulation modeling is carried out to assess the latent variable “quality of life of the population”, based on empirical expert weights and macro statistics data. Moreover, in contrast to most works related to the topic, the values of the integral indicator (and, accordingly, the ranking of observations) are presented as an interval estimate. In other words, the result is presented as a random variable where the element of randomness is the subjectivity of the expert choice of weights for the weighted principal component. It turns out that even in this case it is possible to obtain robust and meaningful results that are in good agreement with the conclusions of well-known research in this area.

What is real and what is not in the global FDI network?

Macro statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) are blurred by offshore financial centers with enormous inward and outward investment positions. This paper uses new data sources, both macro and micro, to estimate the global FDI network while disentangling real investment and phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investor economies. We find that Phantom FDI into corporate shells with no substance and no real links to the local economy accounts for around 40 percent of global FDI. Ignoring Phantom FDI and allocating Real FDI to ultimate investors increases the explanatory power of standard gravity variables by around 25 percent.

China's Prosperous Middle Class and Consumption-led Economic Growth: Lessons from Household Survey Data

AbstractCan the expansion of a prosperous middle class help China to rebalance to consumption-led growth? We address this question through analysis of macro- and micro-level data. Using macro statistics, we examine trends in national aggregate consumption and GDP growth from 2000 through 2019. We observe growth in aggregate consumption but do not find convincing evidence of consumption-led growth. Using micro-level household survey data from 2002, 2007, 2013 and 2018, we estimate the size of China's prosperous middle class and its contribution to aggregate consumption growth. We find that the prosperous middle class expanded rapidly but contributed less to aggregate consumption growth than expected. We discuss features of this class that diminished its contribution to consumption-led growth, including its low propensity to consume out of income and its limited expansion beyond urban subgroups. We conclude that the expansion of the prosperous middle class is necessary but not sufficient to bring about rebalancing.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Growth Transition in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic

At present, China has lost its demographic dividend. Meanwhile, in the face of the twin challenges of rising living costs and the uneven distribution of educational resources, the fertility intentions of ordinary people are rapidly declining. In the background, China’s latest birth incentive policy has not had the desired effect. Especially with the COVID-19 pandemic, these issues have become more complicated, making it more difficult to achieve policy goals. Analysis of changing characteristics and influencing mechanisms in China’s current stage of population growth is therefore significant. Such analysis can help improve China’s population structure and preserve the advantage of human resource endowment. In this paper, we use data from 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 as made available from the resources of China’s National Bureau of Statistics and National Health Commission. These included annual macro statistics, seventh census data, and COVID-19 pandemic data, allowing us to analyze the influencing mechanism of China’s population growth by using the Geographic Detector Model. The research revealed the dependency ratio as the primary factor influencing spatial differentiation of population growth in China, indicating that the dependency burden plays a role in inhibiting population growth. The secondary factor showed different changes in stages. At the same time, any two factors showed more substantial explanatory power after the interaction, meaning the spatial distribution of China’s population growth results from the joint influence of many factors. The strong interaction was mainly concentrated around the dependency ratio and were with women’s political participation and internet coverage. However, under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the explanatory power of traditional factors was diluted, leading to a decline in the strength of interaction.

Household Financial Transaction Data

The growth of the availability and use of detailed household financial transaction micro data has dramatically expanded the ability of researchers to understand both household decision making and aggregate economic fluctuations across a wide range of fields. This class of transaction data is derived from a myriad of sources, including financial institutions, FinTech apps, and payment intermediaries. We review how these detailed data have been utilized in finance and economics research and analyze both their benefits and limitations as compared to more traditional measures of income, spending, and wealth. Finally, we discuss the future potential of this flexible class of data in firm-focused research, real-time policy analysis, and macro statistics.

Economic Benefits of gender equality: comparing EU and BRICS countries

Introduction. In the modern economy the problems of scientific analysis shift the focus from the subject area of gender inequality to gender equality, and special significance is attached to assessing the impact of gender on the social welfare. At the same time, it is noted that developed and developing countries currently have differences in the quality and quantity of goals achieved to address the issue of gender equality. The aim of the article is to assess the economic benefits of gender equality for a group of countries in the European Union and BRICS. Materials and methods. Empirical analysis was based on the construction of regression econometric models that assess the impact on the welfare of the country (GDP) of gender equality in combination with basic macroeconomic factors. Fixed effects regression models have the best descriptive capacity for the EU and BRICS countries, which was verified by standard econometric tests. The information base of the study was made up of official statistics from the reports of the World Bank, the World Economic Forum, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations. Results and Discussion. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the level of gender equality has a positive effect on the economic development of both the EU countries and the BRICS; a comparison of the results of the constructed econometric models for groups of EU and BRICS countries showed that gender equality has a statistically significant impact on the economic development of countries in each group, and in the BRICS countries it is stronger, so with an increase in gender equality by one, GDP per capita increases by 3.4172 vs. 0.4647 in EU countries. The inclusion of key socio-economic indicators in the analysis made it possible to compare the obtained impact, and it was found that the degree of influence of the equality index is not lower than the degree of influence of basic economic indicators. That increases the importance of this problem both at the level of the country and international associations. The conclusions obtained based on the analysis of macro statistics confirmed the conclusions of the researchers based on microeconomic data. Conclusions. The results of this study are aimed at understanding the problems of gender equality, its impact on the economic well-being of society, both in an individual country and in the world economy as a whole, which can be taken into account in designing the policy of the state and companies that together ensure progress in the development of equality between men and women.

항공사 서비스품질과 관계의 질 및 관계지속의도에 관한 연구

The objective of study is to verify the relationships between airlines’ service quality, relationship quality, and relationship persistence intention. In this study, the questionnaire survey was carried out for the airlines customers and the surveyed data was statistically analyzed by using SPSS 26.0 and PROCESS MACRO statistics programs, and multi-regression analysis and bootstrapping were carried out to verify the research hypothesis. The key results are drawn as follows. First, all of the airlines’ service quality factors such as interaction quality, physical environmental quality, and result quality have positive effects on relationship quality. Second, airline customers’ relationship quality has a positive effect on customers’ relationship persistence intention. Third, airlines’ service quality factors such as interaction quality, physical environmental quality, and result quality have positive effects on relationship persistence intention. Fourth, there is significant mediating effects of customers’ relationship quality in the relationships between airlines’ service quality and relationship persistence intention. This study is worthy in that it provided the service strategies needed for airlines’ management.

Mind the Wealth Gap: A New Allocation Method to Match Micro and Macro Statistics on Household Wealth

The financial and economic crisis that have shaken many countries in the last years have increased demand for timely, coherent and consistent distributional information for the household sector. In the Euro area, most of the national central banks collect such information through income and wealth surveys, which are often used to inform their decisions. These surveys, however, may be affected by non-response and under-reporting, determining a mismatch with macroeconomic figures from national accounts. In this paper, we develop a novel allocation method that extends proportional allocation and combines information from a power law (Pareto) model with imputation procedures based on calibration to address these issues simultaneously, when only limited external information is available. Finally, we produce distributional indicators for four Euro-Area countries, which are consistent with their national accounts.

Rethinking Macro Measurement

Economists have long recognized that widely reported and followed economic indicators such as GDP, productivity, and real wage growth often fail to do a good job of capturing the concepts they purport to measure. And as the chief economist of Credit Suisse begins by noting in this article, this mismeasurement problem has been viewed as significant in the cases of inflation and inflation‐adjusted (or real) measures, and even more troubling in the case of productivity.Even before the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic, the U.S. economy, as viewed through the lens of conventional macro statistics, was almost universally agreed to be struggling with pronounced demographic and productivity slowdowns. But if the slowdowns in nominal GDP and wage growth are indisputable, the author suggests that systematic overstatement of U.S. inflation may well have not only exaggerated the extent of such slowdowns, but obscured the possibility of actual increases in productivity and real wages during the past three or four decades.Along with the possible mismeasurement of some macroeconomic data, the author also discusses the ways in which macro measures tend to be misused. Though the limitations of macro data have long been understood by experts, the widespread use and uncritical acceptance of such numbers as representing concepts such as living standards, the cost of living, worker efficiency, technology growth, and welfare have very significant implications for today's policy debates and public assessment of the health of the economy. After discussing some of these measurement challenges and calling for greater acknowledgment of the limitations of conventional macro statistics by economists when citing them, the author suggests that “the prestige of national accounts data has likely peaked,” and better approaches appear to be emerging. Notable among such approaches are alternative measures, some spawned by the pandemic, that are improving how economists track the economy in real time and, in so doing, making possible “a deeper, more accurate, and more realistic view of economic activity.”

Trends in Contemporary International Migration of Ethiopia

Ethiopia is found in the ‘Eastern Africa migration system’ known for turbulent population mobility due to a host of social, economic, and political factors. The migration problem of East Africa, in which, a substantial exploration of the complexity and intensity of the migration pattern of Ethiopia has become necessary in the context of social transformation and development processes. To this end, this study is designed to provide migratory change and developmental patterns of international migration of Ethiopia in regional and sub-regional perspectives based on long-term macro statistics. The data obtained from the Reports of the United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs and World Bank’s Development Indicators have been used to describe, analyze and explain long-term patterns of international migration of Ethiopia within the regional contexts. Results show the trend that Ethiopia experienced a continuous increase in its international migrant stock in the last five decades, from less than 400,000 in 1960 to over 1 million in 2015. Refugees and transit migrants constituted the largest number of immigrants, mostly from the neighboring countries, driven by continuous conflicts and political instability. Ethiopia, once dominant in refugee flows in the Horn of Africa due to political conflict, famine, and persecution, experienced a sharp decline in the share of refugees in the Horn of Africa in the last three decades. Economic motives have recently become the prime factors in migration decisions among the Ethiopians as observed with the fact that the USA and the Middle East are the major destinations. The findings revealed that Ethiopian emigration is characterized by the inter-continental flows unlike the Sub-Saharan migration pattern known to have an intra-continental migratory link. Feminization of Ethiopian migration is also evident particularly in core destination countries of the Global North, which indicates the increasing role of females in migration decisions but also disproves the widely held perception about Ethiopians emigration to the Arab World as female-specific. In the final analysis, Ethiopia could be regarded rather as a destination, with over 1.2 million migrants, than as an origin, with just over 800,000 as of 2017, which now make the country a regional migration hub in the Horn of Africa.

Female farmers in Greece: Looking beyond the statistics and into cultural–social characteristics

Female farmers play an important role in rural economies, although they are not always statistically recorded. The aim of this article is to look beyond macro statistics and official figures provided for female farming at European Union level and try to provide a clearer picture of social and economic efficacy and transformation of the situation for women in agriculture at local level. In Greece, one-third of the agricultural holdings belong to female farmers according to the official statistics. However, the official national statistics which monitor women in agriculture give a macro description of the situation, prone to mistakes and obscure readings of the reality. For this purpose, a concerted effort is made to elaborate on the main characteristics of female farms and their transformations at local level through the past years reading beyond the official statistical data and delving into the field research. The above is accomplished by means of local key-informants and qualitative techniques in one of the most dynamic agricultural areas in Greece, and one that holds a percentage of female farms above the national figure. Research shows that the situation for female farmers has improved during the last decade, but they still face a constellation of problems along with social exclusion, especially in villages of the study area with particular cultural characteristics. All in all, it seems that local cultural standards and values affect the overall integration of women in agriculture despite all incentives and contemporary policies.

Reserved wages in Belarus: characteristics and evaluations

The article presents the research results of the institute of reserved wages, which is a new research area in the Republic of Belarus. Reserved salaries are presented from the perspective of the methodology of labor economics. Options for assessing the level of reserved wages are discussed both from the point of view of individuals who are searching for a new job, and from the position of the state that sets its level in the national economy of the country. The work uses data from macro statistics of the Republic of Belarus for the period 2004–2016. The evaluation results showed that the reserved wages in Belarus differ from the wage rates in the country, and this indicates that its level is not overstated and it is adequate to the conditions of the Belarusian labor market. Its level stimulates the activation of employment of unemployed individuals. It is proved that in the Belarusian economy, the main determinants that affect the level of reserved wages are the number of unemployed at the age of 45 + years, youth unemployment (less than 19 years) and the number of unemployed with higher education, the level of average nominally accrued wages. Belarusian estimates showed that the result of a job search objectively depends on the level of wages.

북한의 자본스톡 추정 및 시사점 (Estimating Capital Stock in North Korea and Its Implications)

Korean Abstract: 본고는 1955~2018년중 북한의 투자시계열을 구축하고 영구재고법으로 자본스톡을 추계한 후 이를 통해 북한의 경제성장 요인을 살펴본 것이다. 자본스톡은 건설자산과 설비자산을 구분하여 추정하였다. 추정 결과 북한의 자본스톡은 1955년 이후 1989년까지 빠르게 증가하다 1990년대에 크게 감소하였으며 2000년대 이후 다시 회복되었다. 북한의 자본스톡은 2018년 현재 1989년보다 24% 높은 수준이고, GDP의 3.9배로 선진국에서 일반적으로 관측되는 3배 수준보다 많은 것으로 추정되었다. 2018년 현재 전체 자본스톡 가운데 설비자산이 8%에 불과하였는데 이는 남한의 1970~90년 평균 수준인 32%와 대비되는 모습이다. 성장회계 분석 결과 북한은 경제성장 초기에 외연적 성장을 달성하기도 하였으나 이후 총요소생산성 감소에 주로 기인하여 성장이 정체되거나 부진한 회복세를 보인 것으로 나타났다. 1990년대 경제위기를 겪었으며 2000년 이후에는 투입 증가율이 낮아진 가운데 생산성 부진이 지속되면서 저성장 기조가 유지되었다. 2017년 이후에는 제재 여파로 투입증가율이 더욱 낮아지고 생산성이 크게 감소하여 경제성장률이 급락하였다. 한편 빈곤의 덫과 유휴자본의 특징을 보인 북한의 1990년대 경제위기 이후는 레온티에프 생산함수에 기반한 해로드-도마 성장모형으로 해석해 볼 수 있다. 북한은 현재 자본재 금수조치로 성장여건이 크게 악화된 상황인 만큼 기업소와 농장의 소유구조 및 운영방식의 혁신을 통해 생산성과 효율성, 창의성을 증진하는 제도개선이 요구되고 있다. 또한 북한이 경제침체로부터 벗어나려면 인적 물적 자본 축적이 필수적인 만큼 선진국의 자본과 기술 도입을 위해 대외관계 개선 및 적극적 개방정책이 시급해 보인다. 본고의 추정에도 불구하고 개별자산의 역사적 축적과정과의 비교, 디플레이터 산출, 성장 추정에 사용되는 물량자료의 정확성 제고 등을 위한 노력이 계속되어야 한다. 특히 본고의 자본스톡 추정은 북한의 여타 거시통계의 추정 개선 작업과 연계된 만큼 아직 미완성의 잠정치로 이해되어야 한다. English Abstract: This study aims to estimate the capital stock in North Korea from 1955 to 2018, based on the perpetual inventory method, and then to explain its economic growth. The capital stock is estimated by decomposing it into construction assets and equipment assets. Estimates show that North Korea's capital stock increased rapidly from 1955 to 1989, then decreased significantly in the 1990s, and recovered since the 2000s. The capital stock estimate as of 2018 stands at 24% higher than that in 1989. The capital stock/GDP ratio as of 2018 is around 3.9 times, which is higher than 3.0, the ratio commonly observed in many advanced economies. The estimated share of equipment capital within total capital is only 8% as of 2018, which compares with the corresponding rate (32%) during the 1970-1990 period in South Korea. Growth accounting analysis shows that North Korea achieved a rapid input-led growth in the early stages of economic growth, but has since shown stagnant or sluggish growth, due mainly to a drop in total factor productivity. It suffered from the economic crisis in the 1990s, and after 2000 the low growth pattern was maintained as productivity continued to remain sluggish amid a lower input growth rate. Since 2017, the economic growth rate has plummeted due to a further drop in the input growth rate and a significant drop in productivity in the wake of sanctions. We believe that the negative GDP growth rate during the so-called “Arduous March Period,” and the low growth seen in succeeding periods that has been characterized by idle capacity with a poverty trap, can be explained by a Harrod (1939)-Domar (1946) model based on the Leontief production function as outlined in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995). As North Korea's growth conditions have deteriorated significantly due to the embargo on capital goods, it is required to improve its system that promotes productivity, efficiency and creativity through innovation in the ownership structure and management of farms and enterprises. More favorable foreign relations and an active opening policy are also necessary to attract foreign investment and technology, which is essential for human and physical capital accumulation and the resulting economic growth. Despite the estimates of this study, efforts should continue to be made to compare the historical accumulation process of individual assets, to calculate deflators, and to enhance the accuracy of production data used in estimating economic growth. In particular, the capital stock estimates in this paper should be understood as preliminary figures, as it is linked to work to improve the estimation of North Korea's other macro statistics.

What is Real and What is Not in the Global FDI Network?

Macro statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) are blurred by offshore centers with enormous inward and outward investment positions. This paper uses several new data sources, both macro and micro, to estimate the global FDI network while disentangling real investment and phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investor economies. We find that phantom investment into corporate shells with no substance and no real links to the local economy may account for almost 40 percent of global FDI. Ignoring phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investors increases the explanatory power of standard gravity variables by around 25 percent.

What Is Real and What Is Not in the Global FDI Network?

Macro statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) are blurred by offshore centers with enormous inward and outward investment positions. This paper uses several new data sources, both macro and micro, to estimate the global FDI network while disentangling real investment and phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investor economies. We find that phantom investment into corporate shells with no substance and no real links to the local economy may account for almost 40 percent of global FDI. Ignoring phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investors increases the explanatory power of standard gravity variables by around 25 percent.

Reshaping the Future of Social Metrology: Utilizing Quality Indicators to Develop Complexity-Based Scientific Human and Social Capital Measurement Model

In this study, we made an effort to understand logic of management system standards with related thinking, and harness it to develop fractal model, focused on the scientific community. Therefore, we briefly explored the world of quality management and infrastructure, particularly its metrology with related concepts and vocabularies, in order to construct the new quality indicators and synthesize them to measure scientific human and social capital. This required us to discover utterly novel data sources, suitable to inform policy makers about changes regarding not only scientific results, but also attitudes, perceptions and behavior (ultimately, the Worldview) of scientists and researchers. The paper results with a proposal of a new social metrology model inspired by principles of the complexity theory and potentially capable of moving the whole process from aggregated macro statistics to smaller details, adjusted to the circumstances of the scientific communities. The novel, complexity-based model for measuring scientific human and social capital is explained through its seven main constructs (performances, metaphor, contexts, cultural, community, sustainable development and the Worldview) with belonging quality indicators and related stakeholders.

Improving the Measure of the Distribution of Personal Income

Developing a national account-based measure of the distribution of income from the commonly used census-based concept of money income has been the subject of earlier research. We use publicly available survey and administrative data to construct a distribution of personal income after enhancing the top income distribution in the Current Population Survey (2007 and 2012). We show that inequality measures are fairly sensitive to the definition of income contemporaneously and across time. This work helps bridge the gap between micro data and macro statistics and informs about results from other studies, such as Piketty et al. (2018).

What is Real and What is Not in the Global FDI Network?

Macro statistics on foreign direct investment (FDI) are blurred by offshore centers with enormous inward and outward investment positions. This paper uses several new data sources, both macro and micro, to estimate the global FDI network while disentangling real investment and phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investor economies. We find that phantom investment into corporate shells with no substance and no real links to the local economy may account for almost 40 percent of global FDI. Ignoring phantom investment and allocating real investment to ultimate investors increases the explanatory power of standard gravity variables by around 25 percent.

The impact of the sanctions regime on foreign direct investments in Russia

The economic and political sanctions had a significant impact on the behavior of foreign investors in the real sector of the Russian economy in the period 2014-2017. Despite a significant outflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015, in 2016-2017, there was an increase in investment activity associated with a steady inflow of FDI, which could be explained by the change in investment strategies of foreign business in Russia. The purpose of the study. The article assesses the impact of Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions on the influx of foreign direct investment into Russia. Methods. The work is based on methods of statistical analysis of the behavior of foreign investors in Russia on the basis of macroeconomic data of the Central Bank of Russia and microeconomic data of the “Ruslana” database. Results. The author gives various assessments of sanctions and counter-sanctions impact on the Russian and European economies, and compares the effects of sanctions policies in Russia and Iran. The stylized facts, identified by the author at the micro level, allow to interpret the macro statistics provided by the Central Bank of Russia at a qualitative level. The conclusion . In conclusion, the author gives recommendations on the possibilities of using new mechanisms of interaction with international institutions to overcome the investment crisis as a consequence of the sanctions regime.