Macroprudential Policy Research Articles

The nonlinear dynamic effect of government expenditure on income inequality: The case of macroprudential policy switching

A panel data analysis of nonlinear government expenditure and income inequality dynamics in a macroprudential policy regime was conducted on a panel of 15 emerging countries from 1985–2019, where there had been a non-prudential regime from 1985–1999 and a prudential regime from 2000–2019. The paper explored the validity of the nonlinearity between government expenditure and income inequality in the macroprudential policy regime as well as the threshold level at which excessive spending reduces income inequality using the Bayesian spatial lag panel smooth transition regression (BSPSTR) and fix effect models. The BSPSTR model was adopted due to its ability to address the problems of heterogeneity, endogeneity, and cross-section correlation in a nonlinear framework. Moreover, as the transition variable often varies across time and space, the effect of the independent variables can also be time- and space-varying. The results reveal evidence of a nonlinear effect between government spending and income inequality, where the minimum level of government spending is found to be 29.89 percent of GDP, above which expenditure reduces inequality in emerging countries. The findings confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship. The focal policy recommendation is that fiscal policy decisions that will reinforce the need for more emphasis on education and public expenditure on education and health, as important tools for improving income inequality, are crucial for these economies. Caution is needed when introducing macroprudential policies, especially at a low level of government expenditure.

Greening Finance? What Institutional Options for a Sustainable Transition?

Research on sustainability and energy transition aims to identify the structural changes that should occur and how they could be achieved and managed to render society more viable. Institutions are the providers of an appropriate environment that should offer those conditions and allow citizens to undertake activities that meet both individual and societal goals. Climate emergency and transition constraints recast economic and political structures and put institutions under pressure in the face of global risks. Two of them, climate risks and financial risks, can be regarded as sources of systemic risk since they determine the conditions of viability of our economies and societies. This article argues that an appropriate institutional reform is required to frame macroprudential policies for financial regulation and tackle climate change by greening finance and containing climate-related financial risks. The article then assesses the scope of a macro-regulatory institutional framework to provide relevant support for sustainable finance and financial markets to improve our ability to secure a viable future for our societies. Long-term sustainable financial tools for financing the transition require definancialization of the economy to prevent the perversion of financial practices that undermine societal sustainability and sabotage financing resources that a greener future inevitably needs.

Cross-border regulatory spillovers and macroprudential policy coordination

We develop a core–periphery model with financial frictions and cross-border banking to assess the magnitude of regulatory spillovers and the gains from macroprudential policy coordination. A core global bank lends to its affiliates in the periphery and banks in both regions are subject to risk-sensitive capital regulation. Following an expansionary monetary policy in the core, a countercyclical response in capital requirements in that region induces the global bank to increase cross-border lending. We calculate welfare gains associated with countercyclical capital buffers under a range of policy regimes, including independent policymaking, full coordination, and reciprocity—a regime in which capital ratios set in the core are imposed on the global bank’s affiliates abroad. One of our key results is that, even when regulatory spillovers are strong, reciprocity can make all parties better off if regulators attach a sufficient weight to financial stability considerations. With a standard, utility-based welfare criterion, reciprocity may also perform better than independent policymaking when regulatory spillovers are weak.

Effects of macroprudential policies on ecological footprint: the moderating role of environmental policy stringency in the top 11 largest countries

This study investigates the impact of macroprudential policies on ecological footprint (EF) in the top 11 largest countries. This study uses country-level panel data from these countries, covering the period from 1992 to 2020. Findings indicate that macroprudential policies alleviates ecological footprint in the sample. Macroprudential policies primarily reduce the ecological footprint before medium quantile (50%) while the environmental benefits of the policies end in the later quantiles. Moreover, environmental policy stringency (EPS) amplifies the positive influence of macroprudential policies on environmental sustainability. Estimate results stay the same with basic regression results in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) period while the impact is positive in the pre-GFC period. Finally, other robust tests validate the findings reported in basic regression model. This study suggests that governments should customize various types of macroprudential policies while also considering environmental concerns. The achievement of a sustainable environment can be facilitated by the combined effects of macroprudential policies and EPS.

The role of macroprudential policies under carbon pricing

This paper analyses the effectiveness of macroprudential policy on macro-financial fluctuations when the government enforces carbon pricing to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the net-zero target. A carbon tax policy alone can reduce carbon emissions by 2030, but at the cost of a deep and prolonged recession, with consequential financial instability due to a higher probability of default on entrepreneurs in the brown sector. This result suggests that carbon pricing should be coupled with complementary policies, such as macroprudential policy. In particular, differentiated LTV ratios and differentiated capital requirements that penalize the brown sector in favour of the green sector tend to decrease the probability of default in the green sector and encourage green lending in supporting the transition to a green economy. However, such policies have little contribution in offsetting the negative impact on the macroeconomy. More stringent levels of prudential regulations are needed to reduce the fall in GDP and consumption. More specifically, the “one-for-one” prudential capital requirements on fossil fuel financing can effectively reduce defaults and move to a greener economy.

Banking on resilience: EU macroprudential policy and systemic risk

This study examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on banking systemic risk for 172 European banks across 20 EU countries from 2000 to 2017. Using a dynamic panel framework, it assesses the effectiveness of policy on two dimensions of systemic risk: banks' contribution to aggregate systemic risk (ΔCoVaR) and their vulnerability in stressed markets (Exposure-ΔCoVaR). Results show policy actions reduce bank systemic risk, especially in terms of Exposure-ΔCoVaR. However, this effect varies between tightening and loosening measures. Interestingly, the analysis indicates that policies don't significantly affect banks' contribution to systemic risk as measured by ΔCoVaR. Borrower-based policies and exposure limits in particular enhance bank resilience. This study has important implications for policymakers regarding the calibration and evaluation of macroprudential measures.

Impact of higher capital buffers on banks’ lending and risk-taking in the short- and medium-term: Evidence from the euro area experiments

We study the impact of higher capital buffers on bank lending and risk-taking behaviour, at different time horizons following the initial policy decision. Employing a regression discontinuity design and confidential centralised supervisory data for euro area banks from 2014 to 2017, our research uniquely explores the effects of the EU policy on other systemically important institutions (O-SIIs) through a quasi-randomised experiment, exploiting the induced policy change and discontinuity of the O-SII identification process. Our findings show that the introduction of the O-SII buffers resulted in a short-term reduction in credit supply to households and financial sector, followed by a medium-term shift towards less risky borrowers, particularly in the household sector. We find a temporary cut in loan growth post-capital hikes, succeeded by a rebound in the medium-term. Our results substantiate the hypothesis that higher capital buffers can positively discipline banks by reducing risk-taking in the medium-term. At the same time, evidence suggests a limited adverse impact on the real economy, characterised by a temporary reduction in credit supply restricted to instances of macroprudential policy tightening.

Interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies

This work aims to investigate the behavior of financial agents in a complex setting where they interact and learn about the environment. Using the bottom-up approach of agent-based models, we simulate a situation where banks, depositors, a central bank, firms, and a clearing house compose an artificial financial system under different scenarios regarding monetary and macroprudential policy instances and emerging and developed countries realities. Banks are able to learn from the outcomes and endogenously set the market interest rate. The main conclusions are: with regard to the credit market, (i) policies reinforce each other's effects on credit supply when they are both restrictive. Regarding banks' risk-taking behavior, (ii) expansive monetary policy increases banks' loans and portfolio risk. Finally, (iii) restrictive instances in both policies, while promoting more capital and less risk in the balance sheet, are able to reduce risk to some extent. If combined in the right way, these policies may improve overall system stability.

The real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy: Evidence from administrative household-level data

We analyze the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy at the household level. We exploit administrative Dutch tax and housing records in conjunction with the introduction of a mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) limit. We find that the regulation sharply reduces mortgage leverage with bunching at the LTV limit. While (regulation) affected households reduce total leverage and interest expenses, they also decrease cash balances to satisfy the LTV limit, generating an important solvency-liquidity trade-off. Nevertheless, affected households experience less financial distress after the introduction of the LTV regulation. Moreover, these households experience better liquidity management and smoother consumption following income loss. Overall, our results highlight the key financial stability and real effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy.

Green transition and financial stability: The role of green monetary and macroprudential policies and vouchers

This paper analyzes a mix of alternative policies in supporting the green transition and the phase-out of fossil fuels, without compromising financial stability. An environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model with two sectors (green and brown) and endogenous default is developed to assess potential climate-induced financial stability threats that can be mainly generated through physical and transition risks mechanism. Those risks are evaluated through a compound capital depreciation shock and a carbon tax shock. The paper offers several findings. First of all, a too stringent carbon tax would increase the medium-term default rate in both sectors, harming financial stability due to potentially detrimental effects on banks’ balance sheet. Second, there exists a trade-off in implementing green monetary or macroprudential policies: if a policy can encourage the green transition, financial stability is compromised due to a rise in default rates. In contrast, if a policy aims to reduce vulnerabilities and financial stability risks, then the phase-out of the polluting sector to foster the green sector would be hard to achieve. The model finds that under certain physical and transition risks, a dual interest rate policy, coupled with a fiscal policy in which carbon tax revenues are redistributed to households as vouchers to encourage the consumption of green goods, is able to support the green transition and safeguard financial stability. Therefore, top-down and bottom-up approaches are the keys for sustainability in the whole economy and financial system.

MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES AND BANK RISK: DOES LANGUAGE MATTER?

The role of macroprudential policies (MPPs) in influencing bank behavior has expanded significantly in recent years. However, the evidence regarding the impact of MPPs in influencing bank behavior across countries with different Future time reference (FTR) of languages has not been adequately examined. To inform this debate, utilizing bank-level data during 2010–2019, we examine how MPPs affect bank return and risk across countries with varying FTR of languages. The findings show that using MPPs lowers risk in countries with strong FTR. This is manifest in baseline regressions as well as in robustness tests that incorporate additional dimensions of a country’s economic and institutional environment. Over and above, the results show that although borrower- and lender-focused macroprudential measures are equally effective, their efficacy differs, with the former set of instruments being more useful in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs). In contrast, the latter holds greater traction in advanced economies.

Asset bubbles and wealth inequality

AbstractWe examine the causal link between asset bubbles and wealth inequality in a two‐agent macroeconomic model. Bubbles influence wealth inequality through two channels: altering the debt–asset ratio and fuelling speculation. When bubbles grow, they can temporarily decrease wealth inequality if asset prices rise faster than debt. However, when they burst, wealth inequality increases as the debt–asset ratio rises. Steady‐state wealth inequality is unaffected by bubbles if household types share symmetric speculative timing. Although macroprudential policy, communication, and leaning against the wind can reduce negative bubble effects on aggregate utility, they have a limited effect on wealth inequality.

Macroprudential policies and Brexit: A welfare analysis

AbstractBrexit will have implications on financial stability and the implementation of macroprudential policies. The United Kingdom (UK) will no longer be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Systemic Risk Board. This paper studies the welfare implications of this change of regime. By means of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, I compare the pre‐Brexit scenario with the new one, in which the UK sets macroprudential policy independently. I find that, after Brexit, the UK is better off by setting its own macroprudential policy without taking into account Europe's welfare as a whole.

Capital inflow liberalization and bank credit risk

Using a panel of annual data, covering 2207 banks operating in 45 emerging, and developing economies, over the period of 2009–2020, we study the impact of liberalization on capital inflows. Our results indicate that capital inflow liberalization has a robust and positive impact on bank credit risk, as measured by non-performing loans. Upon further examination, we find that the positive effect is more pronounced when bond, money, and financial credit markets, which broaden firms’ financing channels, are liberalized. The liberalization intensifies competition and risk appetite among banks, leading to increased credit risk. The findings suggest that openness reduces banks’ credit growth while improving non-interest income. As expected, this positive effect is mitigated within large and competitive banks, and banks with more assets. Furthermore, we find that tightening macroprudential policies, especially countercyclical capital buffers, can help moderate the positive impact of capital inflow liberalization on bank credit risk.

Quantile Policy Effects: An Application to US Macroprudential Policy

To assess the dynamic distributional impacts of macroeconomic policy, we propose quantile policy effects to quantify disparities between the quantiles of potential outcomes under different policies. We first identify quantile policy effects under the unconfoundedness assumption and propose an inverse probability weighting estimator. We then examine the asymptotic behavior of the proposed estimator in a time series framework and suggest a blockwise bootstrap method for inference. Applying this method, we investigate the effectiveness of US macroprudential actions on bank credit growth from 1948 to 2019. Empirically, we find that the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth are asymmetric and depend on the quantiles of credit growth. The tightening of macroprudential actions fails to rein in high credit growth, whereas easing policies do not effectively stimulate bank credit growth during low-growth periods. These findings suggest that US macroprudential policies might not sufficiently address the challenges of soaring bank credit or ensure overarching financial stability.

On the Macroprudential Policy Stance in an Emerging Economy

ABSTRACT Our paper examines the macroprudential policy stance for the Romanian economy by considering simultaneously, unlike other papers, how borrower (Loan-to-Value Instruments) and capital-based instruments (Countercyclical Capital buffers, or CCyB) can be used together. We propose a forward-looking rule with lagged expectations for the CCyB, which is aligned with the European Systemic Risk Board’s recommendation regarding the moment of decision and implementation. Our paper also contributes to the literature by proposing a shock structure that is able to replicate that financial cycles are more volatile than economic cycles. Our main finding is that policy makers should comprehensively assess the resulting effects when deciding about the macroprudential policy stance.

Financial stability: A scientometric analysis and research agenda

The study of financial stability is a highly expansive and significant area of academic inquiry. However, traditional literature reviews are often constrained in their scope as they tend to provide fragmented insights from a subset of the overall corpus of financial stability. In order to bridge this existing knowledge gap, the objective of this study is to undertake a comprehensive review on a large scale, with the aim of offering an up-to-date analysis of the performance and intellectual framework concerning the broad concept of financial stability. The present study undertakes a comprehensive examination of the existing body of literature on financial stability, employing a scientometric survey methodology to analyze scholarly research in this field. The study proposes a research agenda based on two prominent developments identified in the field: systemic risk and macroprudential policy. These findings highlight the importance of conducting additional studies on how various factors affect the sustainability of financial security and risk, such as the financial hazards associated with climate change. There is also an emphasis on macroprudential policy and its possible role in preserving financial security. To maintain macroeconomic stability, we recommend that macroprudential policy should be employed to deal with systemic risk and the credit/financial cycle. We recognize the need for further research into the proper calibration of macroprudential instruments and the limited empirical evidence on the effectiveness of macroprudential regulation. To fully grasp the dynamics at play between climate change, financial stability, and macroprudential policy, the article concludes with a need for a multidisciplinary approach.

Financial cycle comovement with monetary and macroprudential policy and global factors: Evidence from India

This paper assesses the interaction of the financial cycle with domestic and global factors. We assess the comovement of monetary and macroprudential policy stance towards financial cycle phases in India and analyze the external influence of two major global economies, the US and China, from 1990 to 2021. To measure the financial cycle, we use credit and equity prices derived from the low-frequency decomposition of wavelet analysis. The analysis suggests that the amplitude of the downturn phase is much smaller than the upswing phase, suggesting the downturn phase of the financial cycle is considerably milder in India. Results indicate that the procyclicality of monetary policy and macroprudential regulations dominates throughout the upward phase of the financial cycle. Further, the interest rate spectrum, short, intermediate, and extended-term rates are discovered to move together. Also, the monetary and macroprudential policies complemented one another throughout the sample period, indicating the effectiveness of these policies in dampening financial imbalances. Based on wavelet coherency analysis, the results of global factors indicate that India shares a long and stable credit relationship with the US. This credit relationship has weakened with China in post-global financial crisis. In comparison, the Indian equity market displays a strong relationship with the US and the Chinese equity markets only during the financial crisis and remains insulated during normal periods. These results thus suggest that in an emerging market economy like India, credit growth in the US creates significant long-term effects, whereas only during crisis periods do the equity markets of the US and China create financial instability in India.

Impact of macroprudential policies on house price expectations- evidence from survey data

This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policies (MPP) on house price expectations using novel data from the Inflation Expectation of Households survey across 19 major Indian cities released by the Reserve Bank of India. MPP negatively impacts house price expectations, especially borrower-based macroprudential policies. We also find that tightening MPP impacts the retired group more than other occupational groups.

Interconnectedness and systemic risk: Evidence from global stock markets

The study aims to examine systemically important stock markets in the global financial system within the scope of portfolio theory. For this purpose, we use daily stock market indices from 46 countries (23 developed and 23 developing stock markets) in North America, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, Asia, the Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Europe between 1995 and 2021. Based on the Component Expected Shortfall (CES), we identify systemically important stock markets and use the quantile spillover analysis to examine the financial contagion and directional spillovers emanating from downside risks among stock markets. Overall, we observe stock markets of developed countries figured prominently in terms of systemic risk until the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009; henceforth GFC), while developing country stock markets particularly those of China and India gained traction after the GFC. Moreover, we observe a shift in terms of systemic risk in recent years from the West to the East geographically. To increase global financial market resilience and improve stability, supervision, and macroprudential policies can be formulated to limit risk spillovers in global stock markets. Additionally, it is critical to diversify investments outside equity markets, such as currency, bond, gold, and oil asset classes. When considering overseas portfolio choices for diversity, investors should keep the financial spillover effects in mind.