Macro-financial Risks Research Articles

Stress-Testing Net Trading Income: The Case of European Banks

Net trading income is an important but volatile source of income for many euro area banks, highly sensitive to changes in financial market conditions. Using a representative sample of European banks, we study the distribution of net trading income (normalized by total assets) conditional to changes in key macro-financial risk factors. To map the linkages of net trading income with financial risk factors and capture non-linear effects, we implement a dynamic fixed effects quantile model using the method of moments approach. We use the model to empirically estimate and forecast the conditional net trading income distribution from which we quantify tail risk measures and expected losses across banks. We find a heterogeneous and asymmetric impact of the risk factors on the distribution of net trading income. Credit and interest rate spreads affect lower quantiles of the net trading income distribution while stock returns are an important determinant of the upper quantiles. We also find that the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a significant increase in the 5th and 10th percentile expected capital shortfall. Moreover, adverse scenario forecasts show a wide dispersion of losses and a long-left tail is evident especially in the most severe scenarios. Our findings highlight strong inter-linkages between financial risk factors and trading income and suggest that this tractable methodology is ideal for use as an additional tool in stress test exercises.

Automation of Financial Services Using Artificial Intelligence with Human Touch

Artificial Intelligence is the latest in the series of disruptions manifested by computer science. AI has been rapidly transforming the dynamics of banking and financial services industry also. The established and emerging capabilities of AI are being combined, re- constituted and re-formulated in unexpected ways and are throwing up new opportunities and new challenges but at the same time posing new threats also. Apart from the ethico-neutral character of technology and its attendant threats like cyber-crimes and macro-financial risks, a major question to be inquired into is its sustainability as it tends to replace humans and the related personal touch which most often is the essence of financial services industry thriving on the art of customization and customer delight. The instant paper attempts to examine relatively under-explored perspective of AI replacing humans in the space of banking and financial services and unmindfully heralding the flight of personal touch and service customization which are the cornerstone of customer satisfaction and delight in industries like banking and financial services known for their fiduciary and responsible character.

EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE INDEX AS A MACROECONOMIC RISK MEASURING INSTRUMENT

The financial sector of the Republic of Moldova belongs to the developing ones and is characterized by a higher level of risk and, therefore, a higher likelihood of a systemic crisis. Globalization and development of advanced information technologies not only create great opportunities for rapid economic development, but also pose serious security threats to the economic development of states, especially in a developing economy. In these conditions, the issue of ensuring the financial stability of the state is becoming increasingly relevant. The state of the financial and foreign exchange market represents one of the most important aspects of the financial security of the state. This study has been developed as part of the scientific project 15.817.06.02A "Development of tools for measuring the financial stability of the state". The study analyzes various macrofinancial risk management tools. The purpose of this study was to calculate the pressure index on the foreign exchange market of both the Republic of Moldova and the main partner countries in terms of international trade. The results of related studies conducted by the authors of this work, which revealed that stability indicators in the foreign exchange market are associated with foreign trade risks served as an argument for the authors of the work to calculate the pressure index on the currency market of Romania and the Russian Federation for comparison with the indicators of the Republic of Moldova. Methods used in research include theoretical and comparative approaches, descriptive statistics and econometric models. The results of the research showed that international trade and the foreign exchange market are interdependent. The first can be considered a channel for transmitting the currency crisis, since demand increases with increasing imports, and this leads to increased pressure on the foreign exchange market. Increased exports reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market. But the greatest impact on the foreign exchange market in the Republic of Moldova is made by remittances from abroad, which are directly correlated with the dynamics of labor exports. At the same time, it was concluded that at present, due to macroprudential regulation, there are no linear dependencies in financial markets and, therefore, there are no correlations, but only the interdependence of variables.

Fintech and Financial Stability Potential Influence of FinTech on Financial Stability, Risks and Benefits

Abstract Since the last global financial crisis supervisory mechanisms and regulations have become more stringent which have significantly improved resilience of banks therefore positively affecting financial stability. Apart from traditional financial institutions which have been supervised according to strict regulations and standards technological development in financial services commonly called FinTech have introduced new trends providing fast peer to peer lending which directly matches lenders and borrowers thus putting more pressure to policymakers and supervisors. This paper presents potential implications of FinTech developments to financial stability, while explaining FinTech influence to market structure as well as benefits and risks of technologically driven financial innovations to financial stability. The paper stresses out an importance of international cooperation of regulators in order to preserve financial stability in the recent world of technological changes and innovations. FinTech has changed consumers’ expectations and preferences while increasing the number of users expecting fast and easily accessible services available on mobile phones and other electronic devices. The paper shows that new technology provides the space for expanding financial services but it also poses additional risks to financial system in terms of microfinancial and macrofinancial risks.

Macro-financial risk in the South Pacific: analysing balance sheet effects for Fiji economy

Macro-financial risk in the South Pacific: analysing balance sheet effects for Fiji economy

China’s Rising Household Debt: A New Debt Trap?

Household debt in China has risen rapidly in recent years, mostly driven by mortgages but also by ongoing financial deepening and liberalisation which facilitate economic rebalancing towards more consumption. Although the risks to financial stability do not seem large at the time of writing, the sharp rise in household debt has raised some concerns, as high household borrowing could increase macro-financial risks, particularly given the US-China trade tensions and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has resulted in weaker employment and export market. Rising household debt will add to medium- to long-term challenges for China’s domestic consumption and the financial sector. The authorities have so far implemented measures to lessen the risk of a sharp housing correction in the short-run.

MONITORING OF KEY INDICATORS OF THE STATE DEBT OF UKRAINE: MODERN TRENDS

The article contains a theoretical generalization of the essence and necessity of state borrowing, monitoring of indicators of state and state-guaranteed debt in the conditions of government aspirations and actions in the field of ensuring the sustainability of public finances in Ukraine. The main task of the authors is to monitor the indicators of state and state-guaranteed debt in the context of the need to ensure the sustainability of pub- lic finances of Ukraine. State debt in Ukraine remains a significant factor of macro-financial risk. An important measure to prevent the threat of uncontrolled growth of public debt is to strengthen financial control and the implementation of continuous monitor- ing of its main indicators. The cost of public borrowing and the assessment of the effectiveness of their use as a factor in ensuring the sustainable development of the economy is a constant source of discussion between officials, public organizations, and representatives of scientific analysis centers. The article uses the generally accepted methodology for calculating the main indicators characterizing the state’s debt policy. The method of expert assessments analyzes the condition of the state debt and prospects of its servicing in Ukraine. Statis- tical and analytical methods have been used for the processing of statistical data on the study of the dynamics of indicators of state and state-guaranteed debt in Ukraine. The sources of information were the materials of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the State Treasury Service of Ukraine, as well as the Budget Code of Ukraine, laws and regulations of Ukraine relating to the budget sphere, scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists. This study aims to address the issues of analyzing and evaluating pub- lic debt indicators in the context of improving debt management. The authors propose to use 10 indicators to monitor the state of public debt and make managerial decisions in public finance.

Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China

High household indebtedness could constrain future consumption growth and increase financial stability risks. This paper uses household survey data to analyze both macroeconomic and finanical stability risks from the rapidly rising household debt in China. We find that rising household indebtedness could boost consumption in the short term, while reducing it in the medium-to-long term. By stress testing households’ debt repayment capacity, we find that low-income households are most vulnerable to adverse income shocks which could lead to signficant defaults. Containing these risks would call for a strengthening of systemic risk assessment and macroprudential policies of the household sector. Other policies include improving the credit registry system and establishing a well-functioning personal insolvency framework.

How can a seemingly weak state in the financial services industry act strong? The role of organizational policy capacity in monetary and macroprudential policy

AbstractIt is widely held in the public policy and political economy literatures that the Turkish state is weak and cannot adopt a proactive approach in the financial services industry by steering and coordinating the financial policy network. However, it is puzzling that this seemingly “weak” Turkish state, which is often marked by fragmentation, conflict, and a lack of policy coordination within the state apparatus, acted strongly between 2010 and 2016 by taking pre-emptive measures to contain the macrofinancial risks arising from hot money inflows and bank credit expansion. Examining the organizational policy capacity of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, this article argues that proactive policy design and implementation are more likely to complement state capacity when the principal bureaucratic actors have strong organizational policy capacities.

The Bahamas

Macrofinancial risks stem from the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks to tourism and real estate investment, exposure to frequent and severe hurricanes, and a small and illiquid real estate market. Stress tests reveal the overall banking system is resilient to a range of adverse scenarios given large aggregate capital and liquidity buffers. Some domestic banks and the two largest credit unions are more vulnerable to asset quality shocks and tail risk conditions. Asset quality and profitability are key determinants of financial institutions’ resilience to adverse shocks. Liquidity, market, sovereign and financial contagion risks are low. The offshore banking sector is not a source of traditional banking risks.

Modeling and Analysis of Macro-financial Risk in Macroeconomic Systems

Modeling and Analysis of Macro-financial Risk in Macroeconomic Systems

Risk spillover effects of international crude oil market on China’s major markets

This paper systematically evaluates the influence of international crude oil risk on Chinese macro-financial risks, by quantifying risk spillover effects from international crude oil market to China’s three major markets (stock, foreign exchange and commodity markets). Specifically, this paper initially calculates the risks of international crude oil market and China’s three major markets by adopting a conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) model, then the spillover index is used to capture the risk spillovers from international crude oil market to China’s major markets. The empirical results indicate that there exists significant heterogeneous risk spillover effects transmitted from international crude oil market to China’s three major markets. To be more specific, the risk derived from international crude oil market is always a dominant driving force of risk in China’s commodity market. However, the shocks of global oil risk do not affect much of the risks of China’s stock and foreign exchange markets in general. In addition, our results further report that international oil risk has considerable effects on China’s macro-financial risks during several specific periods, which can be attributed to several major events. Specifically, the risk spillovers originated from international crude oil market remarkably contribute to the risk of China’s commodity market during the period of global financial crisis. International crude oil risk makes great contribution to the risks of Chinese stock and foreign exchange markets, when several global notable events occur as well as major financial reforms in China are implemented. The empirical results have significant implications for policy-makers and market participants.

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China

High household indebtedness could constrain future consumption growth and increase financial stability risks. This paper uses household survey data to analyze both macroeconomic and finanical stability risks from the rapidly rising household debt in China. We find that rising household indebtedness could boost consumption in the short term, while reducing it in the medium-to-long term. By stress testing households' debt repayment capacity, we find that low-income households are most vulnerable to adverse income shocks which could lead to signficant defaults. Containing these risks would call for a strengthening of systemic risk assessment and macroprudential policies of the household sector. Other policies include improving the credit registry system and establishing a well-functioning personal insolvency framework.

A Sovereign Risk-Based Approach to Implementing Countercyclical Capital Buffer Schemes

Based on the macro-financial risk framework of Gray et al. (2006) that links the balance sheets of the financial sector and public sector together through government guarantees, we propose an indicator, sovereign distance-to-default (SDD), for implementing the countercyclical capital buffer schemes of Basel III. Using a sample of 29 European countries from 1975 to 2011, we find that SDD outperforms credit-to-GDP ratio, the primary indicator recommended by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision. More specifically, SDD generates more reliable signals for the build-up of capital buffers three years prior to a crisis and the release of capital buffers in the same year that the crisis occurs. Our findings suggest that SDD can be used as a leading indicator for the build-up phase and an anchor for the release phase of the countercyclical capital buffer schemes.

Reducing model risk in early warning systems for banking crises in the euro area

We aim at detecting periods preceding banking crises in the euro area through an early warning system (EWS) and propose a new method to deal with model uncertainty. In a first step, we select a set of macro-financial risk indicators for their signaling ability among a large number of candidates over the period spanning from 1985:q1 to 2009:q4. Then, we run all the possible logit models including four of these indicators as explanatory variables in order to assess the pre-crises probabilities at each time. We retain two sets of models: a small one only including models with all coefficients significant and with the expected signs, and a large set, obtained by relaxing the selection criteria. In a second step, we calculate the weighted average of the pre-crisis probabilities estimated by the models belonging to the two selected sets. The weight given to each model is proportional to its usefulness at identifying pre-crises periods either at the panel or the country-level. The simulations performed both over and out of sample show that aggregating more models yields better results than relying on any single model or only a few of them, as model uncertainty is reduced. Performance is also enhanced by aggregating models’ results with country-specific weights relatively to common panel-weightings.

The Time Varying Risk Puzzle

This paper shows that the discount rates on three major risky asset classes – equity, housing and corporate bonds – do not co-move. Using new long-run data for 17 advanced economies, I show that asset-specific discount rates are uncorrelated, and that asset valuations and macro-financial risk factors predict returns on individual asset classes, but not across asset classes. This lack of co-movement presents a new asset pricing puzzle with important implications. Most theories in macro-finance assume a joint pricing kernel and attribute excess volatility across all asset classes to time variation in this common discount factor. My findings show that most excess volatility is, in fact, asset-specific and is therefore not driven by cross-asset risk factors such as risk aversion, long-run risk, disaster risk and intermediary risk appetite.

Botswana

This Selected Issues paper examines the stability of the financial sector in Botswana. The financial system has grown rapidly over the years, but there is still substantial scope for expansion. Banks, institutional investors, and the Botswana Stock Exchange have grown steadily over the years based on political and economic stability, savings from diamond exports, and fiscal surpluses. Botswana’s financial stability framework could benefit from upgrading. Data gaps and incomplete information on cross-border capital flows and growing interconnection with the nonbank financial sector may entail risks. In this regard, close cooperation among regulators and proper assessment of macro-financial risks associated with banks’ large exposures will contribute to more effective financial system supervision.

International Financial Flows and Macro-Financial Risk in SSA

We examine international financial flows to SSA, with a particular focus on the implications for macro-financial risk exposures. While gross and net international financial inflows have increased in recent years, these patterns should be understood in the context of a more robust international balance sheet and a shift in the risk composition of inflows. Over 2001–13, we do not find any evidence of a correlation between international financial inflows and some primary macro-financial risk proxies. Still, the growth in inflows raises the importance of designing and implementing a robust macro-financial stability policy framework.