Machine Learning-based Prediction Model Research Articles

Leveraging Greenhouse Gas Emissions Traceability in the Groundnut Supply Chain: Blockchain-Enabled Off-Chain Machine Learning as a Driver of Sustainability

AbstractAs emphasized in multiple United Nations (UN) reports, sustainable agriculture, a key goal in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), calls for dedicated efforts and innovative solutions. In this study, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the groundnut supply chain from the region of Diourbel & Niakhar, Senegal, to the port of Dakar are investigated. The groundnut supply chain is divided into three steps: cultivation, harvesting, and processing/shipping. This work adheres to UN guidelines, addressing the imperative for sustainable agriculture by applying machine learning-based predictive modeling (MLPMs) utilizing the FAOSTAT and EDGAR databases. Additionally, it provides a novel approach using blockchain-enabled off-chain machine learning through smart contracts built on Hyperledger Fabric to secure GHG emissions storage and machine learning’s predictive analytics from fraud and enhance transparency and data security. This study also develops a decision-making dashboard to provide actionable insights for GHG emissions reduction strategies across the groundnut supply chain.

Machine learning-based prediction model of lower extremity deep vein thrombosis after stroke.

This study aimed to apply machine learning (ML) techniques to develop and validate a risk prediction model for post-stroke lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) based on patients' limb function, activities of daily living (ADL), clinical laboratory indicators, and DVT preventive measures. We retrospectively analyzed 620 stroke patients. Eight ML models-logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), neural network (NN), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), Bayesian (NB), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN)-were used to build the model. These models were extensively evaluated using ROC curves, AUC, PR curves, PRAUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and clinical decision curves (DCA). Shapley's additive explanation (SHAP) was used to determine feature importance. Finally, based on the optimal ML algorithm, different functional feature set models were compared with the Padua scale to select the best feature set model. Our results indicated that the RF algorithm demonstrated superior performance in various evaluation metrics, including AUC (0.74/0.73), PRAUC (0.58/0.58), accuracy (0.75/0.77), and sensitivity (0.78/0.80) in both the training set and test set. DCA analysis revealed that the RF model had the highest clinical net benefit. SHAP analysis showed that D-dimer had the most significant influence on DVT, followed by age, Brunnstrom stage (lower limb), prothrombin time (PT), and mobility ability. The RF algorithm can predict post-stroke DVT to guide clinical practice.

Integrative prediction model for radiation pneumonitis incorporating genetic and clinical-pathological factors using machine learning

PurposeWe aimed to develop a machine learning-based prediction model for severe radiation pneumonitis (RP) by integrating relevant clinicopathological and genetic factors, considering the associations of clinical, dosimetric parameters, and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of genes in the TGF-β1 pathway with RP. MethodsWe prospectively enrolled 59 primary lung cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy and analyzed pretreatment blood samples, clinicopathological/dosimetric variables, and 11 functional SNPs in TGFβ pathway genes. Using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and nested cross-validation, we developed a machine learning-based prediction model for severe RP (grade ≥ 2). Feature selection was conducted using four methods (filtered-based, wrapper-based, embedded, and logistic regression), and performance was evaluated using three machine learning models. ResultsSevere RP occurred in 20.3 % of patients with a median follow-up of 39.7 months. In our final model, age (>66 years), smoking history, PTV volume (>300 cc), and AG/GG genotype in BMP2 rs1979855 were identified as the most significant predictors. Additionally, incorporating genomic variables for prediction alongside clinicopathological variables significantly improved the AUC compared to using clinicopathological variables alone (0.822 vs. 0.741, p = 0.029). The same feature set was selected using both the wrapper-based method and logistic model, demonstrating the best performance across all machine learning models (AUC: XGBoost 0.815, RF 0.805, SVM 0.712, respectively). ConclusionWe successfully developed a machine learning-based prediction model for RP, demonstrating age, smoking history, PTV volume, and BMP2 rs1979855 genotype as significant predictors. Notably, incorporating SNP data significantly enhanced predictive performance compared to clinicopathological factors alone.

Designing an Experimental Platform to Assess Ergonomic Factors and Distraction Index in Law Enforcement Vehicles during Mission-Based Routes

Mission-based routes for various occupations play a crucial role in occupational driver safety, with accident causes varying according to specific mission requirements. This study focuses on the development of a system to address driver distraction among law enforcement officers by optimizing the Driver–Vehicle Interface (DVI). Poorly designed DVIs in law enforcement vehicles, often fitted with aftermarket police equipment, can lead to perceptual-motor problems such as obstructed vision, difficulty reaching controls, and operational errors, resulting in driver distraction. To mitigate these issues, we developed a driving simulation platform specifically for law enforcement vehicles. The development process involved the selection and placement of sensors to monitor driver behavior and interaction with equipment. Key criteria for sensor selection included accuracy, reliability, and the ability to integrate seamlessly with existing vehicle systems. Sensor positions were strategically located based on previous ergonomic studies and digital human modeling to ensure comprehensive monitoring without obstructing the driver’s field of view or access to controls. Our system incorporates sensors positioned on the dashboard, steering wheel, and critical control interfaces, providing real-time data on driver interactions with the vehicle equipment. A supervised machine learning-based prediction model was devised to evaluate the driver’s level of distraction. The configured placement and integration of sensors should be further studied to ensure the updated DVI reduces driver distraction and supports safer mission-based driving operations.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction Models of Mortality for Intensive Care Unit Patients Using Nursing Records.

This study aimed to develop ICU mortality prediction models using a conceptual framework, focusing on nurses' concerns reflected in nursing records from the MIMIC IV database. We included 46,693 first-time ICU admissions of adults over 18 years with a minimum 24-hour stay, excluding those receiving hospice or palliative care. Predictors included demographics, clinical characteristics, and nursing documentation frequencies related to nurses' concerns. Four models were trained with 10-fold cross-validation after adjusting class imbalance. The random forest (RF) model was identified as the best-performing, with key predictors of mortality in this model being the frequency of vital signs, the frequency of nursing note documentation, and the frequency of monitoring-related nursing notes. This suggests that predictive models using nursing records, which reflect nurses' concerns as represented by the frequency of nursing documentation, may be integrated into clinical decision support tools, potentially enhancing patient outcomes in ICUs.

Machine learning-based prediction models for electoral outcomes in India: a comparative analysis of exit polls from 2014–2021

Machine learning-based prediction models for electoral outcomes in India: a comparative analysis of exit polls from 2014–2021

Applying machine learning in screening for Down Syndrome in both trimesters for diverse healthcare scenarios

BackgroundThis paper describes the development of low-cost, effective, non-invasive machine learning-based prediction models for Down Syndrome in the first two trimesters of pregnancy in Vietnam. These models are adaptable to different situations with limited screening capacities at community-based healthcare facilities. MethodUltrasound and biochemical testing alone and in combination, from both trimesters were employed to build prediction models based on k-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithms. ResultsA total of 7,076 pregnant women from a single site in Northern Vietnam were included, and 1,035 had a fetus with Down Syndrome. Combined ultrasound and biochemical testing were required to achieve the highest accuracy in trimester 2, while models based only on biochemical testing performed as well as models based on combined testing during trimester 1. In trimester 1, Extreme Gradient Boosting produced the best model with 94% accuracy and 88% AUC, while Support Vector Machine produced the best model in trimester 2 with 89% accuracy and 84% AUC. ConclusionsThis study explored a range of machine learning models under different testing scenarios. Findings point to the potential feasibility of national screening, especially in settings without enough equipment and specialists, after additional model validation and fine tuning is performed.

Identification of risk factors of Long COVID and predictive modeling in the RECOVER EHR cohorts

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2-infected patients may develop new conditions in the period after the acute infection. These conditions, the post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, or Long COVID), involve a diverse set of organ systems. Limited studies have investigated the predictability of Long COVID development and its associated risk factors.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we used electronic healthcare records from two large-scale PCORnet clinical research networks, INSIGHT (~1.4 million patients from New York) and OneFlorida+ (~0.7 million patients from Florida), to identify factors associated with having Long COVID, and to develop machine learning-based models for predicting Long COVID development. Both SARS-CoV-2-infected and non-infected adults were analysed during the period of March 2020 to November 2021. Factors associated with Long COVID risk were identified by removing background associations and correcting for multiple tests.ResultsWe observed complex association patterns between baseline factors and a variety of Long COVID conditions, and we highlight that severe acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, being underweight, and having baseline comorbidities (e.g., cancer and cirrhosis) are likely associated with increased risk of developing Long COVID. Several Long COVID conditions, e.g., dementia, malnutrition, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure, PASC diagnosis U099, and acute kidney failure are well predicted (C-index > 0.8). Moderately predictable conditions include atelectasis, pulmonary embolism, diabetes, pulmonary fibrosis, and thromboembolic disease (C-index 0.7–0.8). Less predictable conditions include fatigue, anxiety, sleep disorders, and depression (C-index around 0.6).ConclusionsThis observational study suggests that association patterns between investigated factors and Long COVID are complex, and the predictability of different Long COVID conditions varies. However, machine learning-based predictive models can help in identifying patients who are at risk of developing a variety of Long COVID conditions.

Neural reinforcement learning signals predict recovery from impulse control disorder symptoms in Parkinson’s disease

BackgroundImpulse control disorders (ICD) in Parkinson’s disease (PD) are associated with a heavy burden on patients and caretakers. While recovery can occur, ICD persists in many patients despite optimal management. The basis for this inter-individual variability in recovery is unclear and poses a major challenge to personalized health care. MethodsWe adopt a computational psychiatry approach and leverage the longitudinal, prospective Personalized Parkinson Project (N=136 persons with PD, within 5 years of diagnosis) to combine dopaminergic learning theory-informed fMRI with machine learning (at baseline) to predict ICD symptom recovery after two years of follow-up. We focused on a change in QUIP-rs across the entire cohort, regardless of an ICD diagnosis. ResultsGreater reinforcement learning signals during gain trials but not loss trials at baseline, including those in the ventral striatum, medial prefrontal cortex and the behavioral accuracy score measured while ON medication were associated with greater recovery from impulse control symptoms two years later. These signals accounted for a unique proportion of the relevant variability over and above that explained by other known factors, such as decreases in dopamine agonist use. ConclusionsOur results provide a proof of principle for combining generative model-based inference of latent learning processes with machine learning-based predictive modeling of variability in clinical symptom recovery trajectories. Hence, we showed that RL modelling parameters predict recovery from ICD symptoms in PD

INDELpred: Improving the prediction and interpretation of indel pathogenicity within the clinical genome

Small insertions and deletions (InDels) are critical yet challenging genetic variations with significant clinical implications. However, the identification of pathogenic InDels from neutral variants in clinical contexts remains an understudied problem. Here, we developed INDELpred, a machine learning-based predictive model for discerning pathogenic from benign InDels. INDELpred was established based on key features, including allele frequency, InDel length, function-based features, and gene-based features. A set of comprehensive evaluation analyses demonstrated that INDELpred exhibited superior performance over competing methods in terms of computational efficiency and prediction accuracy. Importantly, INDELpred highlighted the crucial role of function-based features in identifying pathogenic InDels, with a clear interpretability of the features in understanding the disease-causing variants. We envisage INDELpred as a desirable tool for the detection of pathogenic InDels within large-scale genomic datasets, and thereby enhancing the precision of genetic diagnoses in clinical settings.

The construction of machine learning-based predictive models for high-quality embryo formation in poor ovarian response patients with progestin-primed ovarian stimulation

ObjectiveTo explore the optimal models for predicting the formation of high-quality embryos in Poor Ovarian Response (POR) Patients with Progestin-Primed Ovarian Stimulation (PPOS) using machine learning algorithms.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 4,216 POR cycles who underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF) / intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) at Sichuan Jinxin Xinan Women and Children’s Hospital from January 2015 to December 2021. Based on the presence of high-quality cleavage embryos 72 h post-fertilization, the samples were divided into the high-quality cleavage embryo group (N = 1950) and the non-high-quality cleavage embryo group (N = 2266). Additionally, based on whether high-quality blastocysts were observed following full blastocyst culture, the samples were categorized into the high-quality blastocyst group (N = 124) and the non-high-quality blastocyst group (N = 1800). The factors influencing the formation of high-quality embryos were analyzed using logistic regression. The predictive models based on machine learning methods were constructed and evaluated accordingly.ResultsDifferential analysis revealed that there are statistically significant differences in 14 factors between high-quality and non-high-quality cleavage embryos. Logistic regression analysis identified 14 factors as influential in forming high-quality cleavage embryos. In models excluding three variables (retrieved oocytes, MII oocytes, and 2PN fertilized oocytes), the XGBoost model performed slightly better (AUC = 0.672, 95% CI = 0.636–0.708). Conversely, in models including these three variables, the Random Forest model exhibited the best performance (AUC = 0.788, 95% CI = 0.759–0.818). In the analysis of high-quality blastocysts, significant differences were found in 17 factors. Logistic regression analysis indicated that 13 factors influence the formation of high-quality blastocysts. Including these variables in the predictive model, the XGBoost model showed the highest performance (AUC = 0.813, 95% CI = 0.741–0.884).ConclusionWe developed a predictive model for the formation of high-quality embryos using machine learning methods for patients with POR undergoing treatment with the PPOS protocol. This model can help infertility patients better understand the likelihood of forming high-quality embryos following treatment and help clinicians better understand and predict treatment outcomes, thus facilitating more targeted and effective interventions.

Optimizing pre-copy live virtual machine migration in cloud computing using machine learning-based prediction model

AbstractOne of the preconditions for efficient cloud computing services is the continuous availability of services to clients. However, there are various reasons for temporary service unavailability due to routine maintenance, load balancing, cyber-attacks, power management, fault tolerance, emergency incident response, and resource usage. Live Virtual Machine Migration (LVM) is an option to address service unavailability by moving virtual machines between hosts without disrupting running services. Pre-copy memory migration is a common LVM approach used in cloud systems, but it faces challenges due to the high rate of frequently updated memory pages known as dirty pages. Transferring these dirty pages during pre-copy migration prolongs the overall migration time. If there are large numbers of remaining memory pages after a predefined iteration of page transfer, the stop-and-copy phase is initiated, which significantly increases downtime and negatively impacts service availability. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a prediction-based approach that optimizes the migration process by dynamically halting the iteration phase when the predicted downtime falls below a predefined threshold. Our proposed machine learning method was rigorously evaluated through experiments conducted on a dedicated testbed using KVM/QEMU technology, involving different VM sizes and memory-intensive workloads. A comparative analysis against proposed pre-copy methods and default migration approach reveals a remarkable improvement, with an average 64.91% reduction in downtime for different RAM configurations in high-write-intensive workloads, along with an average reduction in total migration time of approximately 85.81%. These findings underscore the practical advantages of our method in reducing service disruptions during live virtual machine migration in cloud systems.

Machine learning based prediction models for uniaxial ratchetting of extruded AZ31 magnesium alloy

The detrimental effect of ratchetting on the fatigue life of materials requires precise prediction models to guarantee the safety of engineering structures. This study focuses on predicting the uniaxial ratchetting of extruded AZ31 magnesium (Mg) alloy using machine learning (ML) based approaches. At first, the evolution and deformation mechanisms of ratchetting are summarized based on the existing experimental results of the Mg alloy. Subsequently, a semi-empirical prediction model, tailored for engineering applications, is developed to describe the evolution of ratchetting strain. Then, a pure data-driven ML based prediction model is proposed to overcome the shortcoming existed in the semi-empirical model and improve the prediction accuracy to the uniaxial ratchetting of the Mg alloy. Finally, a physics-informed ML based model, incorporating the physical information derived from the semi-empirical one, is proposed to further enhance its prediction accuracy and generalization ability. The comparison with correspondent experimental data demonstrates that the proposed physics-informed ML based model exhibits high prediction accuracy and generalization ability.

Prediction equations for detecting COVID-19 infection using basic laboratory parameters.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged as a global pandemic during 2019 to 2022. The gold standard method of detecting this disease is reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). However, RT-PCR has a number of shortcomings. Hence, the objective is to propose a cheap and effective method of detecting COVID-19 infection by using machine learning (ML) techniques, which encompasses five basic parameters as an alternative to the costly RT-PCR. Two machine learning-based predictive models, namely, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), are designed for predicting COVID-19 infection as a cheaper and simpler alternative to RT-PCR utilizing five basic parameters [i.e., age, total leucocyte count, red blood cell count, platelet count, C-reactive protein (CRP)]. Each of these parameters was studied, and correlation is drawn with COVID-19 diagnosis and progression. These laboratory parameters were evaluated in 171 patients who presented with symptoms suspicious of COVID-19 in a hospital at Kharagpur, India, from April to August 2022. Out of a total of 171 patients, 88 and 83 were found to be COVID-19-negative and COVID-19-positive, respectively. The accuracies of the predicted class are found to be 97.06% and 91.18% for ANN and MARS, respectively. CRP is found to be the most significant input parameter. Finally, two predictive mathematical equations for each ML model are provided, which can be quite useful to detect the COVID-19 infection easily. It is expected that the present study will be useful to the medical practitioners for predicting the COVID-19 infection in patients based on only five very basic parameters.

Deep learning prediction of rainfall-driven debris flows considering the similar critical thresholds within comparable background conditions

Machine learning has been widely applied to predict the spatial or temporal likelihood of debris flows by leveraging its powerful capability to fit nonlinear features and uncover underlying patterns or rules in the complex formation mechanisms of debris flows. However, traditional approaches, including some current machine learning-based prediction models, still have limitations when used for debris flow prediction. These include the lack of a specific network structure or model to consider the updating of debris flow critical conditions in relation to geographical background conditions, limiting the universality of prediction models when transferring them to different places. In this study, this article proposes a deep learning network designed to predict the spatiotemporal probability of rainfall-induced debris flows, incorporating the Similarity Mechanism of Debris Flow Critical Conditions (SM-DFCC). The model comprehensively integrates the mining of rainfall-triggering features and couples them with geographical background features to fit the nonlinear relationship with debris flow formation. The model underwent training using data on various historical debris flows triggered by different storms across Liangshan Prefecture from 2020 to 2022. The results indicated that: (i) the method is effective in predicting the spatiotemporal likelihood of debris flows under catchment units, with accuracy scores (ACC) ranging from 0.724 to 0.835; (ii) after optimization using the AVOA algorithm, the predictive performance of the model significantly improved, with an increase of 27.24% in ACC scores for SVC and 8.81% for XGBoost; and (iii) factor importance analysis revealed that rainfall triggering factors have higher cumulative contribution rates when distinguishing between the occurrence and non-occurrence of debris flows. In addition, taking a rainfall storm on 06, September 2020 as a case, this research quantitatively revealed the pattern of debris flow formation, where high-frequency disaster areas exhibit lower rainfall thresholds of debris flows, represented by absolute energy (AE). Despite these findings, the accuracy and reliability of rainfall data still remain the most challenging obstacle in basin/regional-scale debris flow prediction when applying this method. The integration of multiple sources of rainfall data, including station data, satellite rainfall, radar rainfall, etc., is necessary to accurately quantify the impact of rainfall on debris flow formation when applying this method to debris flow monitoring and early warning tasks. Overall, this method shows great potential in providing a scientific reference for the construction of debris flow monitoring and early warning systems in the future.

Prediction of mortality among severely injured trauma patients A comparison between TRISS and machine learning-based predictive models

BackgroundGiven the huge impact of trauma on hospital systems around the world, several attempts have been made to develop predictive models for the outcomes of trauma victims. The most used, and in many studies most accurate predictive model, is the “Trauma Score and Injury Severity Score” (TRISS). Although it has proven to be fairly accurate and is widely used, it has faced criticism for its inability to classify more complex cases. In this study, we aimed to develop machine learning models that better than TRISS could predict mortality among severely injured trauma patients, something that has not been studied using data from a nationwide register before. MethodsPatient data was collected from the national trauma register in Sweden, SweTrau. The studied period was from the 1st of January 2015 to 31st of December 2019. After feature selection and multiple imputation of missing data three machine learning (ML) methods (Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and a Generalized Linear Model) were used to create predictive models. The ML models and TRISS were then tested on predictive ability for 30-day mortality. ResultsThe ML models were well-calibrated and outperformed TRISS in all the tested measurements. Among the ML models, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model performed best with an AUC of 0.91 (0.88–0.93). ConclusionThis study showed that all the developed ML-based prediction models were superior to TRISS for the prediction of trauma mortality.

A machine learning-based prediction model for gout in hyperuricemics: a nationwide cohort study.

To develop a machine learning-based prediction model for identifying hyperuricemic participants at risk of developing gout. A retrospective nationwide Israeli cohort study used the Clalit Health Insurance database of 473 124 individuals to identify adults 18 years or older with at least two serum urate measurements exceeding 6.8 mg/dl between January 2007 and December 2022. Patients with a prior gout diagnosis or on gout medications were excluded. Patients' demographic characteristics, community and hospital diagnoses, routine medication prescriptions and laboratory results were used to train a risk prediction model. A machine learning model, XGBoost, was developed to predict the risk of gout. Feature selection methods were used to identify relevant variables. The model's performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) and precision-recall AUC. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of gout among hyperuricemic patients. Among the 301 385 participants with hyperuricemia included in the analysis, 15 055 (5%) were diagnosed with gout. The XGBoost model had a ROC-AUC of 0.781 (95% CI 0.78-0.784) and precision-recall AUC of 0.208 (95% CI 0.195-0.22). The most significant variables associated with gout diagnosis were serum uric acid levels, age, hyperlipidemia, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and diuretic purchases. A compact model using only these five variables yielded a ROC-AUC of 0.714 (95% CI 0.706-0.723) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 95%. The findings of this cohort study suggest that a machine learning-based prediction model had relatively good performance and high NPV for identifying hyperuricemic participants at risk of developing gout.

Predicting the PCM-incorporated building's performance using optimized linear kernel and tree-based machine learning methods

The devising of a precise machine learning-based energy consumption prediction model holds significant importance for taking effective decisions during the early stages of phase change material (PCM) incorporated building design to reduce energy consumption. Few researchers have developed prediction models for estimating the consumption of energy in PCM incorporated buildings. However, there is a need to develop the best-performing machine learning-based prediction model, which is less complex, involve a lower number of hyperparameters, and has a greater ability to generalize hidden patterns among the dependent and independent variables. To address the above shortcomings, the linear kernel and tree model-based prediction models were formulated for PCM-incorporated buildings located in eight cities of subtropical highland climate, considering the variations in their hyperparameters. The evaluation and validation of the formulated models for prediction were performed utilizing several statistical metrics. Test results substantiated that the ensemble-boosted tree-based prediction model (EBT20) exhibited superior efficacy in estimating the energy consumption for PCM-integrated building, having an average R2 > 0.93, NMBE <4 %, and CV-RMSE <8 %. The developed model showed less complexity and better generalization ability at the optimized values of ensemble boosted tree hyperparameters, which are as follows: minimum leaf size = 32, number of learners = 99, and learning rate = 0.1. From comprehensive evaluation conducted to evaluate the interpretability of the prediction model, it was found that the building orientation and PCMs melting temperature are the most influential parameters for achieving energy savings of up to 33 % in the selected climate zone.

1323-P: Machine Learning–Based Prediction Model for Neurodegenerative Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes—Derivation and Validation in Two Independent Korean Cohorts

1323-P: Machine Learning–Based Prediction Model for Neurodegenerative Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes—Derivation and Validation in Two Independent Korean Cohorts

Developing Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models for Hallux Valgus Recurrence Based on Measurements From Radiographs.

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used to predict the prognosis of numerous diseases. This retrospective analysis aimed to develop a prediction model using ML algorithms and to identify predictors associated with the recurrence of hallux valgus (HV) following surgery. A total of 198 symptomatic feet that underwent chevron osteotomy combined with a distal soft tissue procedure were enrolled and analyzed from 2 independent medical centers. The feet were grouped according to nonrecurrence or recurrence based on 1-year follow-up outcomes. Preoperative weightbearing radiographs and immediate postoperative nonweightbearing radiographs were obtained for each HV foot. Radiographic measurements (eg, HV angle and intermetatarsal angle) were acquired and used for ML model training. A total of 9 commonly used ML models were trained on the data obtained from one institute (108 feet), and tested on the other data set from another independent institute (90 feet) for external validation. Optimal feature sets for each model were identified based on a 2000-resample bootstrap-based internal validation via an exhaustive search. The performance of each model was then tested on the external validation set. The area under the curve (AUC), classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of each model were calculated to evaluate the performance of each model. The support vector machine (SVM) model showed the highest predictive accuracy compared to other methods, with an AUC of 0.88 and an accuracy of 75.6%. Preoperative hallux valgus angle, tibial sesamoid position, postoperative intermetatarsal angle, and postoperative tibial sesamoid position were identified as the most selected features by several ML models. ML classifiers such as SVM could predict the recurrence of HV (an HVA >20 degrees) at a 1-year follow-up while identifying associated predictors in a multivariate manner. This study holds the potential for foot and ankle surgeons to effectively identify individuals at higher risk of HV recurrence postsurgery.