Demand For M1 Research Articles

Electronic payments and money demand in China

This paper constructs the money demand function including the variable of electronic payments while adopting the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to investigate the relationship between electronic payments and money demand in China. The empirical results show that there is the cointegration among the variables in the constructed function with stability, and the e-payment variable is negatively correlated with the demand for money. According to the findings of this paper, in the long run, for every 1 percent increase in the e-payment variable, the demand for M1 will decrease by approximately 0.01 percent. In addition, the money demand function that contains the e-payment variable performs better than the one that does not in the forecast evaluation.

Demand for Money in the United States: Stability and Forward-Looking Tests

This study shows that demand for money is a function not only of interest rate, real exchange rate, and personal consumption but also of fiscal variables like deficit, debt, and foreign-financed debt. It is stable over the short and long run. This study also covers the investigation of policy invariance of money demand, an important issue ignored so far in the existing literature on the demand for money in the United States. It was found that the behavior of agents in the money market changes as the real exchange rate, consumption, and interest rate change. Namely, agents in the money market are forward-looking, and their expectations are formed rationally. This also means that even though the parameters of money demand are stable, according to the stability test results, they can be unstable, as agents adapt their behavior based on any change in the exchange rate, consumption, and/or interest rate. In other words, the contemporaneous real exchange and interest rate variables are not superexogenous in demand for M1, and the contemporaneous consumption is not superexogenous in demand for M2.

Does digital finance change the stability of money demand function? Evidence from China

Understanding the stability of the money demand function is crucial for determining how money impacts inflation and output, and optimizing monetary policy operations. Our study, using China as a case study, examines the potential effects of digital finance on this stability through cointegration technology. We found that digital finance influences the stability of money demand functions differently across monetary aggregates: it leaves M0 unaltered, doesn't influence the unstable M1, but does disrupt the formerly stable M2. We further investigate how two key services of digital finance - payment and asset management - affect the stability of M0, M1, and M2 demand functions. For payment services, our findings suggest the stability impact on the money demand function follows the order of M0 > M1 > M2. In contrast, for asset management services, the impact is ranked inversely. Consistent with recent studies, our data indicates that employing the Divisia index softens the impact of digital finance on the stability of money demand functions. Moreover, it's essential to monitor the pace of reform and understand how the behaviors of unique economic entities impact the money demand function, while concurrently promoting a deeper reform of interest rate liberalization.

Are Stock Prices and the Turkish Money Demand Function Related?

Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality test, this study demonstrates that M1 and M2 money demand cointegrates with real income, deposit interest rate, real exchange rates, and real stock prices. Real income, deposit interest, and exchange rates are significant determinants of the Turkish economy’s long-run M1 and M2 money demand. Furthermore, our findings reveal that the wealth effect of real stock prices outweighs the substitution effect within the Turkish economy. The impact of real stock prices on M1 and M2 money demand is positive and statistically significant in the long run. While M2 is more responsive to changes in real stock prices, M1 exhibits greater stability than M2. Therefore, policymakers must recognise the significant role of the stock market in the long-run money demand function within the Turkish economy and its impact on the effective implementation of monetary policy.

Co-movement and Granger causality between Bitcoin and M2, inflation and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from the U.K. and Japan

This study aims to investigate the co-movement and Granger causality between Bitcoin prices (BTC) and M2 (cash, demand, and time deposits), inflation, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the U.K. and Japan. It uses monthly data from 31 July 2010 to 30 August 2020 and employs the wavelet coherence method, Toda-Yamamoto, and nonlinear Granger-causality tests. The empirical results show that (i) Bitcoin prices influence M2 and interact with inflation and EPU. In the short term, inflation affects Bitcoin price positively, supporting Bitcoin as an inflation hedged instrument in Japan. Both in Japan and the U.K., the short-term effects of M2 on Bitcoin prices are negative, while EPU's effects on Bitcoin prices are positive, (ii) a bidirectional Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality exists between Bitcoin prices, inflation, and EPU and confirms that M2 affects Bitcoin prices, (iii) a nonlinear bidirectional causality exists between Bitcoin prices and inflation. While Bitcoin prices Granger cause M2 in the U.K. and Japan, inflation shows a nonlinear Granger causality with EPU in Japan. These findings help investors make investment decisions while considering the effects of M2, inflation, and EPU, and monetary authorities and policymakers make policies involving Bitcoin.

The Stability of Money Demand Function in Sri Lanka: A Bound Cointegration Approach

The importance of demand for money has become a prominent research topic in monetary economics due to its role in monetary policy formulation. This paper investigates empirically the determinants of money demand function in Sri Lanka over the period 1977-2019. This study estimates both short run and long run money demand function using monetary aggregates M1 and M2 based on time series data. The explanatory variables used in the study comprised with stability variables such as Inflation rate, exchange rate and Gross Domestic product, Opportunity cost variables such as short run interest rate and long term interest rate and other macroeconomic variables such as government expenditure, interest rate spread and economic crisis. Annual time series data has been taken to estimate eterminants of money demand. The estimates of the long run relationship is obtained by using bound cointegration technique and the vector error correction technique was used to estimate of the short run dynamics of the long run equation. Findings of the study confirmed real GDP, interest rate, government expenditure, inflation rate, interest rate spread and economic crisis has significant relationship with the money demand in Sri Lanka. According to the stability test, the empirical results show that the both M1 and M2 money demand functions are stable for the period 1977-2019. Results indicate that both M1 and M2 are suitable for the monetary policy formulation. Thus, Sri Lanka’s current practice of monetary targeting framework using broad money as an intermediate target is viable. This study provides the policy challenges that Sri Lankan economy meets to develop favorable macroeconomic environment in order to manage money demand for a sustainable growth.

Stability of the demand for money in Russia in 2001–2019

Subject. This article investigates the stability of the money demand in Russia over the 2001Q1 to 2019Q4 period. Objectives. Using econometric tools, the article estimates the long-and short-term relationships between monetary aggregates and their determinants. Methods. For the study, I used the Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and the Wald test. Results. The article presents the results of an analysis of the relationships between money demand for M1 and M2 money supply. Conclusions. Understanding the demand for money can be useful if the central bank uses an unconventional monetary policy to regulate zero interest rate. The money demand function may tell how much it is necessary to deflate to raise the interest rate above zero.

Exchange rate effect on money demand in Pakistan

PurposeThis paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.FindingsCointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.Practical implicationsResults signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.

International evidence on long-run money demand

A dataset comprising 38 countries and relatively long sample periods, which extend in some cases to over a century, is used to study the behavior of long-run demand for M1. For a large majority of the countries, the evidence supports the existence of a stable long-run relationship between the ratio of M1 to GDP and a short-term interest rate. The log-log specification provides a good characterization of the data, with the exception of periods featuring very low interest rates. An extension of the theory that imposes limits on the amount households can borrow results in a truncated log-log specification, which is in line with what we observe in the data. We estimate the interest rate elasticity to be between 0.3 and 0.6.

INVESTIGATING THE HUNGARIAN MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION: POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

The Historically, research focusing on the money demand function developing economies (especially Eastern European transition economies) was a difficult undertaking because of under-developed financial systems and the unavailability of data. This study aims to assist in filling this gap in the literature by employing three different estimation techniques to estimate the M1 and M2 money demand functions for Hungary. The study uses quarterly data for an 18-year period, obtained from the IMF’s International Financial Statistics database. The results based on the bounds testing procedure as well as the other two approaches confirm that a stable, long-run relationship exists between the demand for money and its determinants. The results’ robustness is enhanced by the similarities between the results of the various approaches used in the study. The money demand function can therefore theoretically serve as a tool to measure the effect of monetary policy decisions and in determining what parameters of the money demand function to adjust in order to yield the required effects. It is suggested that, in the case of Hungary the M1 money demand function might be the most appropriate model on which monetary policy decisions should be based. Keywords: Money demand, Hungary, stability, ARDL, cointegration

PENGARUH PENDAPATAN DAN SUKU BUNGA DEPOSITO TERHADAP PERMINTAAN UANG M1 DAN M2 DI INDONESIA

The study aims to analyse the influence of revenue (which is derived from the gross domestic product data) and 3 month deposit interest rates on the demand for M1 and M2 money in Indonesia using quarterly data from 1992. I-2017. IV. Through the test of symmetry (Wald Statistics test) indicates that there is a shifting allocation of money demand from the demand for money M1 to M2 money demand. The analytical model used is the smallest quadratic method (OLS) and the SURE estimation model to test how much influence the dependent variable affects independent variables. The results of the study found that the use of the SURE model in this study was better and more efficient than using the smallest squared method model equation (OLS) because of the SURE method, evidenced by the standard (SE) and P-value (Prob) Errors of the SURE method are smaller than the standard error (SE) in the OLS method and all P-values of the two equations that are estimated through the SURE model are the magnitude of α < 0.05. So it can be concluded that there is a contemporary correlation between faults or residues of different equations. Furthermore, regression analysis results showed that the income variables had a positive and significant influence on the demand for money for M1 and M2, while 3-month deposit interest rates had negative and significant effects on money demand for M1 and M2. Keywords: Money request, income, 3 months deposit interest rate, OLS, SURE.

Housing Prices and Money Demand: Empirical Evidence in Selected MENA Countries

Abstract This paper examines the links between housing and money empirically in a money demand framework for a panel of five Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries using quarterly data from 2007Q3 to 2014Q4 with the inclusion of house prices as a variable representing the developments in housing markets. We applied the Pool Mean Group Estimation technique to estimate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationships in money demand model. Empirical results provide the evidence that higher house prices lead to a rise in M2 demand in long-run and short-run estimations. This finding may explain the importance influence of the house price developments on monetary policy in MENA countries. The results confirm that the cross-country heterogeneity of money holdings is also connected with structural features of the housing market.

THE MONEY DEMAND FUNCTIONS IN ISLAMIC ECONOMY: NEW EVIDENCE FROM IRAN-ARDL APPROACH

The demand for money is one of the most fundamental issues of the monetary economy for policy decision. On the other hand, according to the principle of prohibition of Riba, attitudes about the money market conditions in Islamic economics, is quite different from conventional economics. Hence achieving the money demand function in an Islamic country would be necessary. Most studies about the money demand in Islamic economy used the Keynesian approach, while in modern macroeconomics, money demand function derived by using the microeconomics-based approach. Hence in this article investigate some models of the microeconomics-based approach, then, in accordance with Islamic principles, it choose the best among them that is shopping-time model. After that we derive the Islamic money demand function. The results indicate that the demand for money is the function of income and rental rates of sukuk. The marginal product of capital due to an additional unit of income spend for Infaq (spending in Allah's way), depend on the expected inflation rate, depreciation rate and rental rates of Sukuk. In this paper, apply ARDL approach to estimate the money demand function in Islamic republic of Iran in period of 1978-2008 i.e. after Islamic revolution. The results suggested that M1 and M2 money demand are co-integrated with income and rental rate of Sukuk. Incorporating CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests into co-integration analysis, we conclude that M2 money demand is more stable than M1.

DAMPAK KRISIS TERHADAP PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1994-2004

The paper examines relationship of the demand for money in Indonesia with national income (GDP real), interest rate (time deposit interest rate (quarterly)), inflation rate (the growth ofCPI) and crisis (dummy, which 0 = before crisis (from 1994:1 to 1997:2) and 1 = crisis (from 1997:3 to 2004:4) and to determine which variable had the most dominant effect to demand for money and also to know the demand for money stability in Indonesia in 1994-2004 period. To know the effect of the independent variables to the dependent variable we using regression models with OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) method and to know the stability we using the dummy variable approach. The result of the regression show GDP real, interest rate, inflation and crisis had effect to demand for money Ml and M2, and the stability test find there is instability demand for money Ml andM.2 in Indonesia.

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey?

ABSTRACTAs a result of the research conducted by Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell (1963), most studies estimating the demand for money today do include the exchange rate in their specification to account for currency substitution. Previous studies that did this for the Turkish demand for money assumed that exchange rate changes do have symmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey. In this article, we question this assumption. By using the nonlinear ARDL approach, we show that indeed exchange rate changes do have short-run and long-run asymmetric effects on the M1 demand for money. Introducing nonlinearity also yields a stable money demand.

Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in the United States

Previous studies that included any uncertainty measure in the specification of the demand for money in the U.S. derived their measures either from volatility of nominal money supply or volatility of real GDP. However, other factors such as taxes, spending, regulation, the Fed’s announcements, budget deficits, etc. could also contribute to an uncertain environment. A new measure of uncertainty that accounts for all these factors is now constructed and published. In this paper we include this comprehensive new measure known as “policy uncertainty” in estimating the demand for M2 in the U.S. Empirical results show that this new uncertainty measure has short-run and long-run positive effect, implying that due to policy uncertainty Americans hold more cash and this could contribute to a prolonged recession. JEL Classification: E41

Money demand and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from OECD countries

In this article, we analyze whether shadow economic activity has had a measurable influence on the demand for M1 and currency in a cross section of OECD countries since the 1970s. Since shadow economic activity is not directly observable, we use several indicator variables that are positively related to shadow economic activity. We find that, indeed, some of these variables have had a significant influence on M1 money and currency demand in OECD countries over the last decades. Our results indicate that the omission of unofficial activities leads to a considerable overestimation of the income elasticity and the interest semi-elasticity of M1 and currency demand. Measuring accurately the size of shadow economic activity is therefore an important task for central banks to determine the optimal stock of money.

Pengaruh Faktor-Faktor Inflasi terhadap Investasi Asing Langsung dan Pengangguran serta Dampaknya Kepada Daya Beli Masyarakat di Indonesia

Background problem of this research was the inflation in Indonesia considered to be still higher than that in the other ASEAN countries, the rate still needed control toattract foreign direct investments which were decreasing in the recent years. The form of foreign direct investment was mostly from capital-intensive, so that it could not elevate the unemployment and could not increase the purchasing power of the Indonesian people. The purposes ofthis research was to examine and analyze the inflation factors (caused by both theaggregate demand and cost pressures of national production) against the foreign direct investment and unemployment and their impact on the people’s purchasing power in Indonesia. This research used secondary datatime series for 32 years since 1982 to2013.The research method used is explanatory research to explain the causal relationship between the variables in a model, through hypothesis testing. The analysis employed statistical technique of simple and multiple linear regression. Theresults of the research showed that these factors of money supply M2, price of fuel, ICOR, interest rate,exchange rate, and the terms of trade are simultaneously and partially effect on inflation. Inflation gives positive effect on foreign direct investment and unemployment. Furthermore,inflation, foreign direct investment, and unemployment have simultaneously and partialy on the people’s purchasing powerin Indonesia. This research has also found dominant factors wich effect inflation (ranked from the most dominant to the lesser): exchange rate, interest rate(cost push inflation), and thepriceof fuel, money supply M2(demand pull inflation).And the most dominant factor that influence the people’s purchasing power in Indonesia is unemployment. Keywords: Inflation factors, FDI, unemployment, purchasing powerin Indonesia.

Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience

In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between money and interest rates with a focus on the past few years, when the opportunity cost of M2 has dropped below zero. Until the late 1980s, a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and the opportunity cost of holding money--measured as the spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the deposit-weighted average return on M2 assets--existed, and played an integral role in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g., Moore et al.(1990)). This relationship broke down in the early 1990s, when M2 velocity increased beyond the range that could be explained by movements in M2 opportunity cost. As of the mid-2000s, a new relationship was emerging, but was still statistically unstable. In late 2008, the opportunity cost of holding money dropped precipitously and has remained at its zero lower bound. Standard money-demand theory indicates that in such cases the interest elasticity of money demand should rise sharply. Reviewing the evidence to date, we fail to find support for such a rise through 2011, but we observe a notable change in the relationship over the most recent quarters. We conjecture that the more recent shifts, however, could be due to the effects of regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between money and opportunity cost. Further work is needed to determine the contribution of these regulatory and monetary policy factors.

Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience

In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between money and interest rates with a focus on the past few years, when the opportunity cost of M2 has dropped below zero. Until the late 1980s, a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and the opportunity cost of holding money--measured as the spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the deposit-weighted average return on M2 assets--existed, and played an integral role in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g., Moore et al. (1990)). This relationship broke down in the early 1990s, when M2 velocity increased beyond the range that could be explained by movements in M2 opportunity cost. As of the mid-2000s, a new relationship was emerging, but was still statistically unstable. In late 2008, the opportunity cost of holding money dropped precipitously and has remained at its zero lower bound. Standard money-demand theory indicates that in such cases the interest elasticity of money demand should rise sharply. Reviewing the evidence to date, we fail to find support for such a rise through 2011, but we observe a notable change in the relationship over the most recent quarters. We conjecture that the more recent shifts, however, could be due to the effects of regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between money and opportunity cost. Further work is needed to determine the contribution of these regulatory and monetary policy factors.