Low Inflation Research Articles

Balloon Dilation Technique Influences Stent Shortening and Intentional Stent Fracture During Overexpansion of Drug-Eluting Stents: A Bench-Testing Study.

Drug-eluting stents (DES) are not designed for overexpansion to supra-nominal diameters or intentional stent fracture (ISF). The optimal dilation technique to minimize stent shortening (SS) and achieve ISF to accommodate pediatric somatic growth has not been described. Three sizes of two commonly used DES were implanted within a silicone model to simulate blood vessels. Each stent was serially dilated in 1 mm increments under fluoroscopy using three techniques: 2 cm length, semi-compliant balloons (Technique 1), 2 cm, noncompliant balloons straddling the entire stent (Technique 2), or noncompliant balloons in an "inside-out" manner (balloon shorter than stent or 2 cm balloon aligned with distal end of stent (no straddle); (Technique 3). Technique 1 crossed over to noncompliant balloons once stent "napkin-ringed" (NR). Percent SS = (Lnominal - Lfinal)/Lnominal * 100. Technique 1 resulted in the greatest SS (median 85%, IQR 82, 87) and universal napkin ringing. Technique 2 caused less SS (median 14%, IQR 7, 15), and Technique 3 caused the least SS (median 7%, IQR 3, 11). ISF was achieved in all, however, the inside-out technique caused ISF at smaller stent diameters (median 114% recommended postdilation limit vs. 122%-131%) and lower inflation pressures (median 15 vs. 28-29 ATM). ISF was achieved in Technique 1 after napkin ringing but required larger noncompliant balloons than other techniques (median 8.5 vs. 7 mm). Inside-out dilation resulted in less SS and fracture at smaller diameters with lower inflation pressures. This technique may improve the ISF success rate of DES in pediatric patients.

Impact of Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators on Economic Growth: A Case of Eight Eurasian Countries

This study examines the multifaceted determinants of GDP growth in eight Eurasian countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan) focusing on the interplay of macroeconomic and financial indicators, labor markets, demographics, and trade. The research aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing economic growth in the Eurasian region and to offer insights for policymakers. Utilizing a panel data analysis approach over a specified time span from 1993 to 2020, the study explores the individual as well as the collective impacts of these factors on GDP growth, considering both country-specific effects and time trends. The study's findings underscore the significance of macroeconomic stability, characterized by low inflation rates and high industrial concentration in domestic GDP, in fostering GDP growth. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the anticipated substantial impact of labor market dynamics, as measured by unemployment levels, on economic growth. The study also underscores the significance of demographic trends, such as population growth and urbanization, in driving GDP growth. Furthermore, it is anticipated that trade openness and financial market development will have a positive effect on GDP growth in the Eurasian region. These expectations underscore the complex nature of economic growth in Eurasian countries, and the empirical results imply that policymakers should consider a comprehensive approach that addresses various factors to promote sustainable economic development in the long run.

THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR ON THE FOOD INFLATION RATE PERSISTENCE IN UKRAINE: A FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION MODEL

This study seeks to test for food inflation persistence in Ukraine using univariate fractional integration techniques. The GPH (Geweke-Porter-Hudak) test and the local Whittle estimator are both methods used in the analysis of time series data, particularly in the context of long memory processes. In addition to measuring the persistence of the food inflation rate using the ARFIMA model, the empirical results suggest evidence of the persistence of low food inflation rate in Ukraine, albeit with the same trend, before and during the Russian-Ukrainian war. Also, the food inflation rate has long-term memory properties, regardless of the sample used. The results show that memory parameters for all cases (Full, Pre-war, and Dur-war) are within the stationary range (0 < d < 0.5) and with almost equal. Nevertheless, the estimates of d suggest that the food inflation rate series exhibit a long memory, that the effect of shocks will eventually disappear in the short run in all cases (Full, Pre-war, and Dur-war). So there is no strong impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the food inflation rate persistence in Ukraine. This explains that the Ukrainian government's monetary policy strongly absorbs the shocks and effectively mitigates the impacts of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The ability to also exploit fractional integration in a univariate setup when modeling food inflation is a major contribution of this study, and ignoring the same may lead to wrong conclusions.

The framework of macroeconomic policy in China

ABSTRACT In this paper, I explore the macroeconomic policy framework with Chinese characteristics, focusing on its development, distinctive structural features, and the challenges it faces today. Drawing comparisons with conventional practices in market-oriented economies, I highlight three defining features of China’s framework: the use of non-price and non-market-based tools, the unique institutional roles of fiscal and monetary authorities, and the amplifying effect of local governments. Recent trends reveal emerging issues, such as limited fiscal capacity at the local level, weaker macroeconomic policy impacts, and risks associated with low inflation and balance sheet recessions. I argue that China’s macroeconomic regulation should prioritize counter-cyclical measures over cross-cyclical adjustments, improve policy coordination, and utilize sovereign credit to mitigate systemic risks. Finally, I propose practical recommendations to guide future policies, including fostering moderate inflation, accelerating fiscal spending, and shaping market expectations to stabilize the economy and ensure sustainable growth.

Examining the Impact of Oil Revenue on Inflation Rates in Iraq from 1991 to 2020

The Iraqi economy is primarily dependent on oil exports, which has a substantial impact on the inflation rate and economic stability. Despite substantial studies on the relationship between changes in oil prices and economic activity in both rich and developing countries, studies that specifically investigate the effects of oil prices on different economic sectors, notably in Iraq, remain few. The impact of oil revenues on the inflation rates in the Iraqi economy from 1991 to 2020 is investigated using regression analysis of historical data. To capture both long-term and short-term asymmetric interactions between variables, a nonlinear ARDL method is used. Increases in oil revenues, according to the study, will result in higher inflation rates, while losses in oil revenue will result in lower inflation rates. Understanding the factual connection that exists between the two variables (inflation rates and oil prices) in Iraq is critical, especially for monetary authorities in charge of inflation management. This insight enables them to develop appropriate policies to reduce the inflationary effects of rising oil prices. The study’s conclusions will be useful to policymakers, economists, and stakeholders interested in Iraq’s economic progress and stability.

The Impact of Irrational Economic Policies on Borsa Istanbul, Interest Rates, and Inflation in Turkey: A Time Series Analysis

This study aims to examine the relationship between Borsa Istanbul (BIST), interest rates, and inflation during the period of irrational economic policies from 2018 to 2023. The Johansen Cointegration model (1991, 1995) was employed to investigate the long-term relationship between the variables. Using monthly data, the dynamics between the BIST100 index, interest rates, and inflation were analyzed. The findings of the study indicate that as interest rates and inflation decrease, the BIST100 index tends to rise. This suggests that lower interest rates and inflation stimulate investment and consumption, thereby supporting economic growth. Additionally, a linear relationship between inflation and exchange rates was identified, predicting that the exchange rate would increase at least by the inflation rate.

Changes in the Economic Behaviour of Czech Households in the Years of Economic Crisis and Pandemic

In the period following 2000, the Czech economy went through two crises, which were different in their causes, durations and consequences. The 2009–2013 crisis resulted from the global financial and fiscal crisis. Its causes were external and purely economic, and its impact on households' economic behaviour was 'standard' – a gradual and moderate reduction in consumption and investment with high unemployment and low inflation rates. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 meant a sudden and unexpected change in economic conditions – the closure of shops and services, restricted population movements, and household consumption limited to only the most essential products. A reduction in household consumption generally means an increase in household savings if all other circumstances are equal. The aim of the present paper is to show, using the methods of time series analysis, the effects of these two crisis periods in terms of data for the household sector or to show whether the fall in the propensity to consume and the rise in the propensity to save in 2020–2021 can be considered statistically significant compared to the crisis period of 2009–2013. Publicly available data from the Czech Statistical Office have been used for our analysis.

Successful Central Banks Can Afford to Pay Scant Attention to Money

ABSTRACTIn the last few decades, central bankers and economists have paid little attention to monetary aggregates, in contrast with the experience of the 1970s and the 1980s. Our evidence shows that monetary aggregates lose relevance when central banks maintain low and stable inflation, as has occurred in recent decades. However, to move from unstable to stable inflation, our findings also show that attention to monetary aggregates is needed. Our findings help resolve the long‐standing controversy about the importance of monetary aggregates for the conduct of monetary policy: monetary aggregates are vital to move from unstable to stable inflation but lose relevance once a central bank has consistently reached price stability.

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN ETHIOPIA: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS USING ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

Purpose- The main purpose of this paper is to examine the macroeconomic factors that drive inflation in Ethiopia. Nonetheless even with different economic liberalization reforms and attempts on macroeconomic level, inflation stands as one of the most crucial issues affecting the Ethiopian economy. The purpose of this study is thus to investigate circumstances that trigged inflation during the period of 2003 to 2023 in an effort to identify key sources of sustained inflation and to determine the best ways of managing it. Methodology- This study employs the ARDL technique to analyze the determinats of inflation through various macroeconomic variables in Ethiopia. The ARDL approach is particularly suitable for examining the short-run and long-run dynamics of the variables involved. Data for this research is sourced from reputable institutions, including the NBE, the EEA, the IMF, the WB, the CSA, and the MoFD, spanning from 2003 to 2023. Findings- The study's findings indicated that exchange rate, broad money supply, import price, government expenditure, and budget deficit all have a positive and statistically significant impact on inflation in both the long and short run. On the other hand, interest rates and GDP growth exhibit a negative effect on inflation. While interest rates have an inflationary effect in the short run, they demonstrate a deflationary impact in the long run. In the short run, the budget deficit has a negative effect on inflation, suggesting that managing fiscal imbalances can contribute to lower inflation rates. Conclusion- This study suggests that Ethiopian policymakers should improve fiscal and monetary policies by controlling money circulation, stabilizing exchange rates, ncreasing government spending efficiency. Moreover, reinforcing the institutions and adapting to global fluctuations can further reduce inflation. Keywords: Macroeconomic drivers, time series, ARDL model, Bond test JEL Codes: E31, C32, O55

SECTORAL FINANCING CONCENTRATION AND SHARIA RURAL BANKS’ PROFITABILITY

Introduction: Sharia rural banks (SRBs) in Indonesia face high non-performing financing (NPF). The high NPF likely causes a decrease in the profitability of SRBs. One strategy to overcome high financing risk is selecting the appropriate financing strategy either sectoral financing diversification or concentration. This study explores the impact of sectoral financing concentration along with some control variables on the profitability of Sharia rural banks in Indonesia using aggregate data of SRBs from 2010:M1 to 2023:M12 Methods: Our study employs the quantitative method utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Returns on Assets (ROA) are utilized to measure profitability and Sectoral financing concentration is measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI). Some control variables are assets, capital adequacy ratio (CAR), financing (FIN), cost-income ratio (CIR), NPF, consumer price index (CPI), and COVID. Results: The results show cointegration, indicating the long-run relationship among the variables being studied. The findings signify that sectoral financing concentration fortifies Sharia rural banks' profitability. Also, the size and equity enhance profitability. The results also highlight that low inflation increases profitability and COVID-19 lowers profitability. Conclusion and suggestion: Our results suggest that Sharia rural banks should have competent experts in specific economic sectors such as trade, restaurants, and hotels, which generate more profit due to comparative advantage.

At the crossroads of inflation: analyzing Central Bank responses in noneconomic crises

Purpose This study aims to thoroughly investigate the complexity of inflation dynamics in the context of two significant global crises, the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. The primary goal is to examine the effects of several factors, such as interest rates, currency indices and unemployment, on inflation during extended periods of noneconomic crises. Design/methodology/approach This research uses a comprehensive data set spanning 75 months across the USA and the Euro Area, using the Generalized Method of Moments two-step regression methodology for analysis. The study examines the relationships between interest rates, currency indices, unemployment and inflation during extended noneconomic (financial) crises. This rigorous approach offers a nuanced understanding of how these factors interact and influence inflation. Findings The study highlights the crucial role of interest rates in controlling inflation during crises. Specifically, an interest rate increase of over 1.75% negatively impacts inflation, with more substantial rate hikes having a faster effect. The analysis reveals a minimal correlation between currency devaluation and inflation, emphasizing the predominant influence of interest rates. In addition, a notable negative correlation between unemployment and inflation is observed, indicating that higher unemployment rates tend to coincide with lower inflation levels. Practical implications The study’s findings offer valuable insights for central banks and policymakers tasked with managing inflation in times of crisis. By underscoring the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments and the limited influence of currency depreciation, this research provides critical guidance for formulating effective monetary policy during economic challenges. Originality/value This study contributes to existing literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics during noneconomic crises, using a robust database and using advanced econometric techniques. The findings provide new insights into the role of interest rates, currency indices and unemployment in shaping inflation dynamics in times of noneconomic crises. These findings enhance the understanding of monetary policy strategies in challenging economic environments.

Petrol Prices, Food Prices, and Inflation Perceptions in New Zealand—Evidence From a Threshold Analysis

ABSTRACTInflation perceptions shape inflation expectations. However, little is known about the factors influencing these perceptions. In this study, we address this gap by employing threshold regressions to analyze the associations between changes in petrol and food prices—two of the most conspicuous prices—and inflation perceptions in New Zealand. Findings reveal a positive association between petrol and food price inflation on the one hand and inflation perceptions on the other, with some evidence suggesting closer associations for food price inflation. Furthermore, the relationships do not change when high inflation rates are considered instead of low inflation rates. Finally, inflation perceptions are more closely related to petrol and food price inflation over the previous year than just the most recent quarter.

The combined effects of retail energy prices, and exchange rates on inflation in Nigeria States

This paper explores the nonlinear dynamics relationship between petroleum product prices and inflation in Nigeria. By focusing on the role of exchange rate fluctuations in amplifying the relationships, the paper employs a multiplicative interaction approach to address the nonlinear effects of petroleum prices on inflation. Utilizing data from 2016: Q1 to 2024: Q2 from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Nigeria, the study introduces interaction terms to capture how petroleum prices and exchange rates interact to influence inflation. The methodology includes static and dynamic panel estimators, with a focus on the within effect model to account for unobserved state-specific factors. Key findings reveal that AGO and PMS prices significantly drive both headline and food inflation, while DPK's impact varies, and GAS shows minimal effect. The study highlights those geographical factors—proximity to seaports and fuel depots—significantly influence inflationary pressures. States closer to these facilities experience lower inflation due to reduced distribution costs. This suggests that policies aimed at partial subsidization for states farther from key infrastructure could mitigate regional inflation disparities. The findings contribute to the understanding of inflation dynamics, emphasizing the need for targeted policy interventions tailored to regional economic conditions in Nigeria.

Backpropagation untuk Memprediksi Tingkat Inflasi di Kota Malang

Backpropagation is a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) that uses supervised learning to solve complex problems, such as predicting the inflation rate by being trained using forward learning methods and backward error correction. The inflation rate is the percentage change in prices of goods and services in the economy during a certain period. Throughout December 2022, the Central Bureau of Statistics recorded the inflation rate in Malang City at 0.58%. One of the causes is the increase in prices of rice and other commodities such as eggs, chicken, and cayenne pepper. From this, predictions need to be made to help prepare programs that must be carried out to overcome inflation. This research aims to determine the level of accuracy of the backpropagation algorithm by testing several parameters and finding out the results of inflation predictions in Malang City in 2019. The findings of this research are the best inflation prediction results were obtained with the 7-14-1 architectural model with the tanh activation function parameters, batch size 16, and number of epochs 1000, with accuracy results of 87.49%. From the results of these predictions, the highest inflation in Malang City is predicted to occur in January 2019 and the lowest inflation is predicted to occur in February 2019.

On the time-frequency effects of macroeconomic policy on growth cycles in Brazil

This paper adds to the literature on the growth cycle in Brazil by addressing instrumentalized co-movements between the quarterly variation of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita versus net debt to GDP, primary balance to GDP, inflation, official interest rate, household, and enterprise credit to GDP from 2004q1 to 2022q4. The authors use wavelet algorithms to process data by decomposing each time series as a wave-shaped function of the position and scale, partial coherency to analyze time-frequency correlation, and partial phase difference and gain to find and measure the lead-lag relationships. Summarizing the short-run main findings, in periods of non-recession, primary balance uses to leads in-phase growth cycles, while inflation and household credit use to lead out-of-phase growth cycles. During recessions, there is a positive role played by the enterprise credit and a negative leadership of interest rates on the growth cycle. According to the results, Brazil could reach a short-run fiscal equilibrium by increasing net domestic debt under control associated with a credible flow of fiscal surplus able to pay the service of the new debt pattern, with lower inflation and interest rates and thus not compromising economic growth.

Macroeconomic Conditions and Private Equity in Morocco: A Bounds-Testing Cointegration Approach

Private equity plays a pivotal role in fostering entrepreneurship, innovation, and job creation across many economies. In Morocco, the private equity sector is in its developmental stage and faces significant macroeconomic challenges that hinder its growth. This study seeks to address the gap in the literature by examining how key macroeconomic factors—including GDP growth, exchange rates, government spending, inflation, gross domestic savings, interest rates, and industrial production—affect private equity fundraising in Morocco between 1990 and 2019. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we investigate both short- and long-term relationships between these macroeconomic variables and private equity fundraising. The results reveal that GDP growth and interest rates significantly influence private equity fundraising in both the short and long run, while inflation and government spending have a more pronounced long-term effect. These findings highlight the need for policies focused on stabilizing macroeconomic conditions to attract private equity investments. Policymakers should prioritize fostering a stable economic environment characterized by sustainable growth, low inflation, and moderate interest rates to create a favorable investment climate.

Application of ARIMA Methods on Unemployment and Inflation Rates in Nigeria

In Nigeria, Unemployment and inflation rate are some of the problems bedeviling the economy. The inability of Job seekers to secure gainful employment tends to create disaffection among these people and cause some of them especially the youth, to resort to social vices. In the motivation to experience low unemployment rate and inflation rate which are economic indicators in Nigeria, deriving appropriate ARIMA model to give insight into future occurrence of these indicators for intervention calls for the application of ARIMA model. This study seek to fit ARIMA model to unemployment rate and inflation rate and forecast future values for both unemployment rate and inflation rate. Utilizing secondary data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) from 1991 to 2020. The findings reveal that, for each of the two series, to obtain the appropriate ARIMA model that fits the data, ten closely suitable ARIMA models were identified. Using the least values of AIC, AICc and BIC as selection criteria, ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was found to be the best fitted model for each of the two series. Subsequent diagnostic checks confirm the adequacy of the fitted models, with residual analyses indicating no significant autocorrelation or heteroscedasticity. The forecasted values for the unemployment rate series and inflation rate series maintain a constant point forecast. This implies that unemployment rate and inflation rate in Nigeria does not reveal a noticeable increase nor decrease but will be constant in Nigeria. Due to the unchanging forecasted value which appears not to be decreasing, there is need for interventions that will lead to the visible reduction of present unemployment rate and inflation rate in Nigeria.

Financial Sector Reforms and Inflation-Growth Nexus

In the 1980s, Pakistan's financial reforms reduced central bank borrowing, raising government debt and tax collection needs. In this context, the conventional approach to evaluating the costs and benefits of low inflation proves inadequate. The sacrifice ratio (SR) focuses on demand contraction's impact on economic activity and fails to capture the true costs of inflation by overlooking the supply-side effects of reduced fiscal space. This study re-evaluates the SR, accounting for both the demand contraction channel and the long-term supply side impact of diminished fiscal space. We hypothesize that the cumulative costs outweigh the long-term benefits of price stability. By incorporating fiscal space scenarios into the time-series model for SR estimation; our results indicate an SR approximately double that found in earlier studies. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating fiscal implications into monetary policy decisions to support sustainable economic growth.

The Impact of Retail E-Commerce on Relative Prices and Consumer Welfare

Abstract This paper examines the impact of retail e-commerce on pricing behavior and welfare. Using Japanese data, we find that e-commerce lowered relative inflation rates for goods sold intensively online. We use long time series and historical catalog sales as an instrument for e-commerce sales intensity. The entry of e-commerce firms raised the rate of intercity price convergence in physical stores for goods sold intensively online, but not for other goods, which suggests e-commerce enhances price arbitrage. We estimate that e-commerce lowered variety-adjusted prices on average by 0.9% between 1996 and 2014, and more in cities with highly educated populations.

Low pelvic incidence as a risk factor for vertebral recollapse after percutaneous vertebroplasty in the thoracolumbar region

BACKGROUND CONTEXTPercutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) is an effective procedure for treatment of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs). Recollapse of the cemented vertebrae is not unusual and the thoracolumbar junction is the most common region. Nevertheless, not all patients suffering from OVCFs in this region develop recollapse after PVP. PURPOSEThe aim of this study was to investigate possible risk factors related to recollapse of the cemented vertebrae in the thoracolumbar region. STUDY DESIGN/SETTINGRetrospective study. PATIENT SAMPLEA total of 161 patients undergoing PVP. OUTCOME MEASURESClinical outcomes were assessed using Visual Analog Scale (VAS) scores. Radiographic parameters included pelvic incidence (PI), thoracolumbar kyphosis (TLK), kyphotic angle, compression rate, reduction rate, and occurrence of intravertebral cleft (IVC). METHODSPatients were divided into the recollapse group and control group. Patient characteristics, clinical and radiographic parameters were compared between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to evaluate the potential risk factors for recollapse. The correlations between the variables were examined. A receiver operating characteristic curve of PI was constructed to discriminate between patients with and without recollapse. RESULTSThere were no significant differences in patient characteristics between the two groups except for bone mineral density (BMD). Occurrence rate of IVC was significantly higher in the recollapse group. VAS scores were significantly decreased after PVP. At last follow-up, they were increased in the recollapse group and maintained in the control group. PI was significantly lower in the recollapse group than in the control group. The univariate logistic regression found four possible risk factors for recollapse, including low PI, IVC, low BMD, and high TLK. Further multivariate logistic regression eliminated high TLK from them. The collinear analysis showed low tolerance and high variance inflation factor for preoperative and postoperative TLK, but not for PI, IVC and BMD. PI was a good predictor of recollapse, and the optimal cut-off value was 43°. The magnitude of preoperative and postoperative TLK was significantly correlated with the value of PI. CONCLUSIONSRecollapse of the cemented vertebrae in the thoracolumbar region was related to low PI, IVC and low BMD. PI less than 43° was a good predictor of recollapse. TLK was dependent on PI and not a risk factor for recollapse. In addition to PVP, patients with low PI, IVC and low BMD may require personalized interventions such as combined internal fixation and trunk orthoses.