Low Socioeconomic Development Research Articles

Geographical and sociodemographic epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease in young females from 2010 to 2019

Background and aimsInflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) represents a significant health threat worldwide. However, there are deficiencies in large-scale epidemiological research focusing on these issues, especially among young women. We aim to examine the trend of IBD in young females globally. MethodsWe utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study between 2010 and 2019 to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from IBD in young females (15–49 years), stratified by region, nation, and sociodemographic index (SDI). ResultsGlobally, there were 1.27 million (95 % UI 1.10 to 1.45 million) cases and 314,120 (95 % UI 240,880 to 395,420) DALYs from IBD in young females in 2019. Geographically, Europe had the highest burden of IBD in young females (n = 421,320). From 2010 to 2019, the prevalence rate increased in Africa (APC 0.34 %, 95 % CI 0.25 to 0.44 %), the Eastern Mediterranean (APC 0.77 %, 95 % CI 0.74 to 0.81 %), Europe (APC 0.48 %, 95 % CI 0.44 to 0.51 %) and the Western Pacific region (APC 1.01 %, 95 % CI 0.89 to 1.14 %). Countries with lower SDI exhibited higher DALYs to prevalence ratio. Over the study period, the percentage of young women with IBD compared to young adults increased by 0.24 %. This percentage varies significantly between countries, from 26 % to 62 %. ConclusionThe burden of IBD in young females is high and increasing. Countries with lower SDIs generate higher disability per case. This necessitates immediate and inclusive measures to tackle the rising burden of IBD in this vulnerable group. Lay SummaryFrom 2010 to 2019, in the largest global epidemiology database, prevalence rates of inflammatory bowel disease in young females increased in many regions. Countries with lower socioeconomic development, as indicated by sociodemographic index, generated a higher burden compared to countries with higher development

The Global Burden of Gynecological Diseases from 1990 to 2019

IntroductionGynecological diseases ranked second among new cases of noncommunicable diseases in women of reproductive age in 1990 and 2019 globally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease burden of gynecological diseases and describe their trends in women of all ages from 1990 to 2019. MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we examined the incidence, disability–adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from gynecological diseases by age in 204 countries and territories worldwide from 1990 to 2019. Analyses were conducted in 2022. ResultsGlobally, the age–standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age–standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of gynecological diseases decreased by –0.176 % and –0.245 %, respectively from 1990 to 2019. Low socioeconomic development index (SDI) countries had the highest ASIR and ASDR in 2019. The age-specific incidence rate of gynecological diseases in women aged 15–29 years increased from 1990 to 2019, and the 20–24-year age group increased the greatest by 0.21%. Polycystic ovary syndrome and other types of benign disorders contributed to the major increase. ConclusionsAlthough the disease burden of gynecological diseases decreased slightly between 1990 and 2019 globally, it remained highest in low SDI countries. The disease burden in 20–24-year age group exhibited the fastest growth, with polycystic ovary syndrome and other types of benign disorders playing a significant role. Urgent and effective measures should be taken to target different age groups, types of gynecological disease and regions with high disease burdens.

Impact of the genomic signature of 70-genes for breast cancer in the public system and in supplementary health care in a country of medium socioeconomic development

IntroductionThe financial impact of breast cancer has been discussed due to its high incidence and the increased costs of systemic therapy and is even more relevant in countries with low and medium socioeconomic development. ObjectiveTo evaluate the financial viability of using the MammaPrint™ (MP) genetic signature in a public and private system in a country with a medium socioeconomic development index. Material and methodA pharmacoeconomic trial with a cost-benefit analysis evaluating the reduction in costs of chemotherapy, support drugs, and materials used during chemotherapy infusion in high-risk hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer patients submitted to analysis using the MammaPrint™ genetic signature. ResultsThe value of using MammaPrint™ in the Unified Health System (SUS) would bring an additional cost of US$ 1,334.56 per patient in the over-50 age group. In private medicine, the use of MammaPrint™ in the same population would result in cost savings ranging from US$ 2,422.53 to US$ 9,989.95 per patient. ConclusionThe use of MP in RH + breast cancer patients with high clinical risk and low genomic risk in Brazil leads to significant savings in resources when applied to supplementary healthcare. In the SUS, reducing the costs of MP for large-scale use could make its application viable. These values need to be re-evaluated in each institution, using the methodology applied in the trial, adjusting according to costs, to obtain a result that reflects its reality.

Young Labour Force and Labour Market Alignment in A Developing Economy: Turkey TRB2 Region Survey

The aim of this study is to discover the root causes of the labor market adjustment problem, which has not been resolved for a long time in Turkey, on the most fundamental basis and by observing in the least developed region. The study is based on data obtained from qualitative and quantitative field studies that lasted approximately nine months as part of a research project supported by the Eastern Anatolia Development Agency (DAKA). According to the results, social skills deficiencies have been identified among the causes of labor market conflicts and vocational skill deficiencies in regions with low socio-economic development. Contrary to most studies on education-employment fit, the results of this study show that central education remains a habit for the labor market parties but does not meet the expectations of both parties.

The poverty-crime nexus revisited: absolute poverty, relative poverty, and crime rates in 105 countries

ABSTRACT Criminological writing on the poverty-crime nexus has suffered from a lack of engagement with academic work about the definition of poverty. Furthermore, researchers who have connected nations’ crime rates to their poverty levels have tended to use infant mortality rates (a health outcome variable) as a proxy for poverty. This article presents findings from the first study of cross-national crime differences to use measures of “absolute” poverty (% with purchasing power under $1.90 per day at 2011 prices) and “relative” poverty (% with income below 50% of the national median). Both measures correlated positively with rates of assault/mugging, stealing, homicide, and intimate partner violence against women. Relative poverty is closely connected to inequality, while absolute poverty is closely connected to low socio-economic development, so the findings are consistent with the view that economic inequality is generally criminogenic whereas modernisation is not.

Prevalence, trends, and determinants of contraception use among women in Nigeria: An analysis of Nigeria demographic and health surveys 2008 to 2018.

Within Africa, maternal mortality remains a concern that can be prevented and addressed. Among the various African countries, Nigeria has one of the highest mortality rates, particularly in a context where the population continues to rise. The relationship between contraceptive usage among married Nigerian women and low socioeconomic development contributes to another concerning public health issue- performing unskilled abortions. This cross-sectional study examines how seven (7) key social determinants of health impact the usage of contraceptive methods among Nigerian women ages 15-24. Data were analyzed and acquired from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and the National Population Commission (NPC) in 2008, 2013, and 2018. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses illustrate social determinants have a deep effect on access and usage of contraceptives in Nigeria. Results yielded that as factors such as age, education, and socioeconomic status increase, the use of contraceptives increases as well. While autonomy has little to no significance, religion and urbanity present challenges to Nigerian women who are interested in using contraceptives. More so, this study suggests a stronger need for education for Nigerian women at an early age and deepening the understanding of the barriers to contraception use with the help of the community and religious leaders.

Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060

Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060

Effects of zero-dose vaccination status in early childhood and level of community socioeconomic development on learning attainment in preadolescence in India: a population-based cohort study

Introduction‘Zero-dose’ children (infants who fail to receive the first dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine) face substantial adversity in early childhood and may be at risk of failure to thrive. To inform...

Trend and spatial clustering of medical education in Brazil: an ecological study of time series from 2010 to 2021

ContextStudies that analyze the temporal trend and spatial clustering of medical education indicators are scarce, especially in developing countries such as Brazil. This analysis is essential to subsidize more equitable policies for the medical workforce in the states and regions of Brazil. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the temporal trend and identify spatial clusters of medical education indicators in Brazil disaggregated by public and private education, states, and regions.MethodsA time-series ecological study was conducted using data from the Higher Education Census of the Ministry of Education from 2010 to 2021. The study analyzed vacancy density indicators of active and former students/100,000 population, disaggregated by public and private education, 27 states, and 5 regions in Brazil. Prais-Winsten regression was used for trend analyses of indicators. Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) was used to identify spatial clusters of indicators.ResultsThe number of medical schools increased by 102.2% between 2010 and 2021. A total of 366 medical schools offered 54,870 vacancies at the end of 2021. Vacancy density and active and former students increased significantly in the period, but this increase was greater in private institutions. Most states and regions showed an increasing trend in the indicators, with higher increase percentages in private than in public schools. Hot spot spaces changed over time, concentrated in the southeast, center-west, and north at the end of 2021. Medical education remains uneven in Brazil, with a low provision in regions with low socioeconomic development, academic structure, and health services, represented by regions in the north and northeast.ConclusionsThere is a growing trend in medical education indicators in Brazil, especially in the private sector. Spatial clusters were found predominantly in the southeast, center-west, and north. These results indicate the need for more equitable medical education planning between the regions.

The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence. In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance. In 2019, there were 3·0 million deaths and 30·0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288·4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children and adolescents globally (57·3% of total communicable disease burden across all ages). Over time, there has been a shift in communicable disease burden from young children to older children and adolescents (largely driven by the considerable reductions in children younger than 5 years and slower progress elsewhere), although children younger than 5 years still accounted for most of the communicable disease burden in 2019. Disease burden and mortality were predominantly in low-SDI settings, with high and high-middle SDI settings also having an appreciable burden of communicable disease morbidity (4·0 million YLDs in 2019 alone). Three cause groups (enteric infections, lower-respiratory-tract infections, and malaria) accounted for 59·8% of the global communicable disease burden in children and adolescents, with tuberculosis and HIV both emerging as important causes during adolescence. HIV was the only cause for which disease burden increased over time, particularly in children and adolescents older than 5 years, and especially in females. Excess MIRs for HIV were observed for males aged 15-19 years in low-SDI settings. Our analysis supports continued policy focus on enteric infections and lower-respiratory-tract infections, with orientation to children younger than 5 years in settings of low socioeconomic development. However, efforts should also be targeted to other conditions, particularly HIV, given its increased burden in older children and adolescents. Older children and adolescents also experience a large burden of communicable disease, further highlighting the need for efforts to extend beyond the first 5 years of life. Our analysis also identified substantial morbidity caused by communicable diseases affecting child and adolescent health across the world. The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence for Driving Investment in Global Adolescent Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mortality due to interpersonal violence in adolescents and young people in Latin AmericaMortalidade por violência interpessoal entre adolescentes e jovens na América Latina

To estimate the mortality gap due to interpersonal violence in adolescents and young people in 'social territories' made up of 17 Latin American countries, by age and sex for the years 1990 and 2019, based on estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) Study, 2019. Ecological epidemiological study of mortality due to interpersonal violence. Countries were divided into three strata according to the social development index (SDI). To estimate the gaps, the Poisson regression model was used, and the odds ratio and its respective 95% confidence interval were calculated. The global burden of mortality due to interpersonal violence showed a significant increase in men in strata 1 and 2, and a decrease in stratum 3; a significant decrease was observed in women in stratum 2. By age group, the burden of interpersonal violence increased in both men and women aged 20 years and older. Interpersonal violence continues to be an important public health problem in Latin America, affecting mainly adolescents and young people in countries with lower socioeconomic development. It is urgent to evaluate the public policies that have been implemented in order to determine the causes that prevent the reduction of current gaps, and to implement plans that act on the social determinants of interpersonal violence and that promote a positive transformation with equity. The GBD report can serve as an important tool in the design, implementation, and monitoring of public policies aimed at preventing interpersonal violence in the Region.

Spatio-temporal evaluation of water-energy-food nexus system risk from the provincial perspective: A case study of China

Abstract This study first defined the concept of the water–energy–food nexus system risk (WEF-R). Then, the WEF-R evaluation index system was established from three aspects: stability, coordination, and sustainability subsystems. Finally, the set pair analysis-variable fuzzy set model was used to evaluate the risk levels of subsystems, and the risk matrix was applied to assess provincial WEF-R levels in China from 2009 to 2018. The results showed that the stability subsystem had the greatest influence on provincial WEF-R, followed by the sustainability subsystem. The provinces with a higher risk of the stability subsystem and lower risk of the sustainability subsystem were mainly centralized in southeast coastal and central regions, which were consistent with the provinces with better socio-economic development. The provinces with lower risk of the stability subsystem and higher risk of the sustainability subsystem were mainly concentrated in northwest regions, which correspond with the provinces with better natural resources endowment but lower socio-economic development. As for the temporal evolution of risk levels, the risk levels of the coordination and sustainability subsystems showed downward trends during the study period, while the risk level of the stability subsystem displayed a small fluctuation, and the provincial WEF-R level in China presented a decreasing trend.

University-firm cooperation: how do small and medium-sized enterprises become involved with the university?

PurposeThis study aims to investigate how small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) perceive the benefits and obstacles with university cooperation for themselves and regional development, setting out from the personal relations the parts have formed.Design/methodology/approachA quantitative approach was adopted, using a sample of 336 Brazilian SMEs that had undertaken some cooperation with universities in the past years.FindingsFrom structural equation modelling, results show that interpersonal relations interfere in the type of cooperation formed, these being a catalyst in formalizing the cooperation. These relations also interfere in the perception of barriers and benefits of cooperation for the firm.Practical implicationsThe results are clearer in the firm domain and less so in the region, implying that university-SME cooperation does not yet present clearly disseminated benefits so that firms can be more aware of the results. The barriers to cooperation seem to be overcome by interpersonal relations but also by the contracts established since they were more evident in the informal type of cooperation.Originality/valueThis study provides more empirical evidence about these relations in a context of low socio-economic development, a topic which is still under-explored in the field of university-firm cooperation.

Global burden of hepatitis B attributable to modifiable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a growing contribution and its association with socioeconomic status

BackgroundHepatitis B is a global public health concern, and modifiable risk factors can accelerate progression of this disease. The burden of hepatitis B attributable to modifiable risk factors has not been well evaluated. We aimed to estimate the disease burden of hepatitis B attributable to tobacco, alcohol use, and a high body mass index (BMI) to guide lifestyle interventions in the management of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.ResultsIn 2019, 33.73% of hepatitis B age-standardized deaths and 34.52% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were attributable to tobacco, alcohol use, and a high BMI. The proportion showed an increasing trend that 28.23% of deaths and 27.56% of DALYs were attributable to the three modifiable risk factors in 1990. The hepatitis B burden attributable to modifiable risk factors was disparate across regions and countries. Countries with a low socioeconomic status have a high burden of hepatitis B owing to modifiable risk factors. Countries with a high-level sociodemographic index also had an increasing burden of hepatitis B attributable to a high BMI.ConclusionsLifestyle interventions are warranted in hepatitis prevention strategies and plans of action. Countries with low and middle socioeconomic development should be prioritized, and countries with high socioeconomic development should be aware of the novel challenge of a high BMI-related disease burden.

Environmental and socioeconomic determinants of heart failure.

Over 1.5 million people in Poland suffer from heart failure (HF). The risk of hospitalization is related to environmental and socioeconomic factors and the organization of the healthcare system. The study aimed to assess the influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on the prevalence of hospitalization for HF. The impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on HF hospitalizations in Poland in 2012-2019 based on data from the National Institute of Public Health and Central Statistical Office in Poland was estimated by panel data regression techniques. There were 1 618 734 HF-related hospitalizations (51.3% male; 82.6% aged >65 years). An increase in the number of physicians by 10/10 000 population and healthcare expenditure of 100 PLN per capita resulted in 3.5% (-0.035; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.06 to -0.01; P = 0.002) and 3% (-0.029; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.013; P <0.001) decrease in hospitalizations, respectively. For each new outpatient healthcare facility per 10 000 population, there was a 3% (-0.031; 95% CI, -0.048 to -0.014; P <0.001) decrease in hospitalizations. One percentage point increase in the proportion of green areas resulted in a 2.7% (-0.027; 95% CI, -0.042 to -0.01; P = 0.049) decrease in hospitalizations. However, an increase in cars by 1000 inhabitants and a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate were associated with a 6% increase in HF hospitalizations (0.064; 95% CI, 0.008-0.121; P = 0.026). The number of HF-related hospitalizations has been increasing in the last decade. This trend is most noticeable in regions with low socioeconomic development and poor medical facilities. Our study indicates that health policy measures including environmental and socioeconomic instruments may result in positive health outcomes. Additional analyses are needed to compare the impact of socioeconomic and environmental factors against the impact of healthcare alone.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Malaria Control in Africa: A Preliminary Analysis

Malaria remains a significant public health concern in Africa, and the emerging coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have negatively impacted malaria control. Here, we conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of malaria globally, and preliminarily explored the impact of COVID-19 on the malaria elimination program in regions of Africa (AFR). The present analysis found that there was a vast heterogeneity of incidence of deaths caused by malaria globally in different continents, and the highest malaria burden was observed in AFR. In 2020, there was an obviously increasing trend in the malaria epidemic in AFR, while the other four continents exhibited stable and declining patterns. Historically, malaria has been largely concentrated in high-malaria-burden regions, such as West Africa, and there has been an obvious increasing trend in Nigeria. These data suggest that dynamic changes in the malaria epidemic situation worldwide have primarily originated from AFR, and West Africa has played an important role in the global malaria increase in recent years. Under the coercion of COVID-19, multiple factors have co-driven the increase in malaria in AFR, including insufficient financial investments, a high native malaria burden, weak surveillance systems, limited medical resources, and low socioeconomic development levels. In addition, the shift of medical resources (e.g., health workers and personal protective equipment (PPE), the manufacturing of diagnostic reagents, and drugs) from malaria control to emergency COVID-19 response in the pandemic's early stage caused disruptions, reductions, and delays in pillar malaria control measures, leading to a significant negative impact on malaria control. In particular, a funding shortfall at both the international and domestic levels led to a "significant threat," resulting in vast gaps in access to proven malaria control tools. Although there has been a declining trend in malaria control over time due to COVID-19, the effect still cannot be ignored. Hence, we recommend the implementation of medical and technical resource assistance as a priority strategy to support Africa (West Africa) in order to curb further transmission.

The coupling effect of socio-economic and eco-environment and land use transformation in mountainous areas-a case of the Fengjie County in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China.

Revealing the general laws of land use transformation (LUT) under the coupling evolution of different socio-economic and eco-environment (SE-EE) in mountainous areas is of great significance for rational use of land resources, regional socio-economic development, and eco-environment protection. This paper constructs a research framework of LUT under the coupling evolution of SE-EE and takes Fengjie County as an example to conduct a case study. The results show (1) the socio-economic development level and eco-environment quality showed an overall growth trend from 2000 to 2020, showed the distribution pattern of high in the Yangtze River valley and low in the mountainous areas, and low in the Yangtze River valley and high in the mountainous areas respectively. (2) The coupling evolution of SE-EE showed five types: synchronous development of SE-EE, socio-economic development and ecological retarded, socio-economic retarded and ecological restoration, low socio-economic development level, and low eco-environment quality. (3) The transformation of land use quantity, structure, and function corresponded to the coupling evolution of SE-EE. Cultivated land was reduced when the socio-economic development level was relatively high, and the function changed from production to ecological and eco-economic. When the eco-environment quality was high, cultivated land was reduced, and the function changed from production to ecological. (4) The framework constructed in this paper is universal to the mountainous areas represented by the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) and the plain areas where the LUT and SE-EE evolution are different from the mountainous areas.

DIFFERENTIATION OF THE LEVEL OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL AND SEMI-URBAN MUNICIPALITIES OF THE WIELKOPOLSKIE VOIVODESHIP IN 2004–2020

Aim: The study aims to identify the spatial diversity and possible concentrations of the 207 rural and semiurban municipalities of the Wielkopolskie voivodeship (Poland) regarding their level of socio-economic development. Methodology: Measuring the local development requires the use of several variables due to its multidimensional character. The Hellwig development measure was used, which is one of methods of multidimensional analysis. The LAU-2 administrative units were ranked according to the level of socio-economic development. The research period covers the years 2004–2020, i.e. from the year of Poland’s accession to the European Union until the end of the previous financial perspective. The variables used in the study concerned the main spheres of local development: demography, social activity, labour market, infrastructure, entrepreneurship, and local finance. Results: Rankings constructed for 3 periods – 2004, 2012 and 2020 – made it possible to observe the improvement in the level of development of municipalities surrounding the main city of the Wielkopolskie voivodeship, Poznań, whereas municipalities located peripherally in the eastern part of the voivodeship were characterised by a low or very low socio-economic development level. Conclusions:A positive impact of the city on the surrounding rural area can be noticed, complementing its functions by locating enterprises in areas with lower rents and taxes as well as settling people commuting to the city every day to work. On the other hand, peripheral municipalities were characterised by some undiscovered or unexploited development potential, including tourist attractions.

The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on EU Food Security

The challenges and dangers posed by the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine have provoked major international issues. Among them, food security in the countries of the European Union has become particularly acute. The aim of the study is to identify the theoretical and applied aspects of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on food security in the European Union. The methodological basis of the research consists of general scientific and special methods of economic analysis, in particular: observation and system analysis; historical-logical; statistical analysis and comparison; functional-system approach; analysis and synthesis; cluster analysis; generalization and systematization; graphic. According to the results of the study, it has been established that ensuring food security in the European Union includes unhindered access to food, ensuring quality, environmental friendliness and safety of goods. The Russian-Ukrainian war has been proven to have a major impact on food security in the European Union, as evidenced by the significant decline in the Global Food Security Index. It is revealed that highly developed countries, in particular: Austria (GFSI: 73–82), Ireland (GFSI: 78–84), Belgium (GFSI: 74–81), The Netherlands (GFSI: 78–82), Finland (GFSI: 75–85), France (GFSI: 75–80), Germany (GFSI: 77–82) and Denmark (GFSI: 75–81) are able to ensure a higher level of food security than countries with lower socio-economic development: Bulgaria (GFSI: 66-71), Romania (GFSI: 67-74), Hungary (GFSI: 69-73) and Slovakia (GFSI: 67-69). The main directions of strengthening food security in the European Union countries have been proposed: strengthening financial support to the agro-industrial complex of EU member states, ensuring the stable functioning of the EU food market, providing financial support to Ukraine for the recovery of the agro-industrial complex.

Evaluating the enhancement of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of developing countries: an international support programme perspective

ABSTRACT Enhancing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is an important exercise to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement also recognizes that support to developing countries in this regard will help them to aim for higher climate ambition. The role of international support programmes in the NDC enhancement process is crucial but is not often covered in scientific research. Consequently, the factors driving a country’s decision to apply for NDC-related assistance have also not yet been fully explored. Acknowledging the research gap, this paper framed and tested multiple hypotheses to evaluate the impact of potential factors on the likelihood of a country applying for assistance to enhance its NDCs. For this, a logistic regression method was employed. Data from the two initiatives coordinating the technical and financial assistance worldwide, namely the Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP) and Climate Promise, were reviewed for this purpose. The CAEP program is financially supported by Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK. This study identifies the level of socio-economic development and the population’s exposure to air pollution as key factors which influence the likelihood of applying for assistance under CAEP and Climate Promise in developing countries. Further, the presence of democratic aspects in the form of governance may also influence this choice. Finally, this study discusses the results and associated policy implications for countries receiving assistance to enhance their NDCs. Key policy insights Developing countries with relatively low socio-economic development are more likely to apply for assistance to enhance their NDCs. The assistance is designed to help them to build capacities to develop and implement future climate policies. Air pollution and climate change issues are interconnected. Exposure to air pollution is a potential indicator that can influence the NDC enhancement process in developing countries. The assistance for enhancing NDCs will lead to NDC targets that are well-informed and are aligned with national and sub-national development priorities with realistic prospects of implementation. Climate vulnerability and net trade do not influence the decision-making process to apply for NDC enhancement assistance.