Lower Homicide Rates Research Articles

Economic Factors Influencing Homicide Rates: A European Perspective

Intentional homicide rates represent a critical societal issue, impacting public safety and social stability across <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>. Understanding the socio-economic factors underlying these crimes is paramount for effective policy intervention. This research aims to investigate the socio-economic determinants of intentional homicides in 15 European countries over the period 2010-2021, providing insights into the complex relationship between economic indicators and violent crime rates. The study hypothesizes that economic prosperity, government debt, and access to financial services significantly influence intentional homicide rates, with countries exhibiting higher levels of economic development and financial inclusion experiencing lower homicide rates. Utilizing robust statistical and econometric techniques, including regression analysis and correlation matrices, the research examines the relationships between various socio-economic indicators and intentional homicide rates. Data spanning from national tax authorities, statistical agencies, and international organizations are meticulously analyzed to uncover meaningful patterns and associations. The findings reveal compelling associations between economic indicators and intentional homicide rates. Higher GDP per capita and greater financial inclusion are correlated with lower homicide rates, while elevated levels of government debt exhibit a negative association with homicide rates. These results underscore the multifaceted nature of crime dynamics and highlight the importance of considering broader socio-economic factors in understanding violent crime patterns. The study contributes to both theoretical knowledge and practical policymaking by offering insights into the socio-economic determinants of intentional homicides. These findings can inform evidence-based policy interventions aimed at promoting social stability and enhancing public safety across <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>, emphasizing the importance of addressing underlying economic factors in crime prevention strategies.

Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership, and Homicides: Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock

Abstract Do firearm purchase delay laws reduce aggregate homicide levels? Using variation from a six-month countrywide gun demand shock in 2012/2013, we show that U.S. states with legislation preventing immediate handgun purchases experienced smaller increases in handgun sales. Our findings indicate that this is likely driven by comparatively lower purchases among impulsive consumers. We then demonstrate that states with purchase delays also witnessed comparatively 2% lower homicide rates during the same period. Further evidence shows that lower handgun sales coincided primarily with fewer impulsive assaults and points toward reduced acts of domestic violence.

Prison Populations: The International Mystery

At first glance international prison rates, measured by prisoners per 100,000 population, appear to be uncorrelated with national intelligence and with racial diversity, which contradicts both a priori expectations and individual level observations that higher intelligence (IQ) generally reduces criminality, although GDP per capita shows a small positive correlation. We present a solution to this mystery by first breaking prison rates into three components: crime rates (proxied by homicide rates), effectiveness at catching and imprisoning criminals, and sentencing length. We then employ a path analysis to first estimate the effect of national IQ and racial diversity on GDP per capita and income inequality. Finally, we estimate both the direct and indirect association of intelligence and diversity with our prison rate components. Consistent with previous literature we find that national IQ increases GDP per capita and reduces income inequality, whilst racial diversity raises income inequality. GDP per capita in turn is correlated with lower homicide rates, higher effectiveness and longer sentencing length, whilst inequality is not significantly associated with any outcome variable, after controlling for racial diversity. While the association between national IQ and prison rate components appears to be entirely indirect, through the channel of national income, racial diversity is directly associated with higher homicide rates and is weakly positively correlated with sentencing length. This evidence suggests that the opposing effects of raising effectiveness and reducing homicide rates provides an explanation for the lack of correlation between national IQ and prison rates. Keywords: Prisoners, Crime, Homicide, Intelligence, GDP, Racial diversity, Income inequality, Police effectiveness

Homicide and State History

We argue that cross-national variability in homicide rates is strongly influenced by state history. Populations living within a state are habituated, over time, to settling conflicts through regularized, institutional channels rather than personal violence. Because these are gradual and long-term processes, present-day countries composed of citizens whose ancestors experienced a degree of “state-ness” in previous centuries should experience fewer homicides today. To test this proposition, we adopt an ancestry-adjusted measure of state history that extends back to 0 CE. Cross-country analyses show a sizeable and robust relationship between this index and lower homicide rates. The result holds when using various measures of state history and homicide rates, sets of controls, samples, and estimators. We also find indicative evidence that state history relates to present levels of other forms of personal violence. Tests of plausible mechanisms suggest state history is linked to homicide rates via the law-abidingness of citizens. We find less support for alternative channels such as economic development or current state capacity.

Social Change, Gender Stratification and the Sex Gap of Homicide Victimization in 76 Countries, 1975–2017

Abstract This study examines the longitudinal change in the sex gap of homicide victimization in 76 countries between 1975 and 2017. We compiled a cross-national dataset with homicide victimization data from WHO and structural measures from multiple databases. Our findings reveal that countries with low homicide rates and rapid homicide decline are more likely to have narrowing sex gaps, and that the narrowing gaps are mainly driven by male homicide decline. Different from the prior literature, we find null associations between most measures of gender stratification and the sex gap. Instead, results reveal that aging population is associated with a narrowing sex gap. Implications are discussed, including the specific effects of the study period and the shifting dynamics of homicide trends.

DOES THE NEW DRUG LAW AFFECT THE HOMICIDE RATE? THE BRAZILIAN EXPERIENCE

This article aims to analyze the effect of the new drug law, in force since 2006, on the efficiency of incarceration in reducing the homicide rate. There exists a reasonable consensus in the literature that the incarceration rate is valid for reducing the homicide rate, i.e., arresting more offenders usually entails lower homicide rates. However, by hypothesis, since the new drug law does not make clearly differentiating between user and drug dealer, this could increase the punishment of drug users and weakened punishment to the trafficker. Hence, we test this hypothesis based on panel data econometric models considering data from Brazilian states between 2004 and 2014. Results from the econometric models show, based on empirical evidence, that with the new drug law there was increased the efficacy of incarceration in reducing the homicide rate, contrary to what we expected.

From detection to sentencing: a homicide case flow analysis of the Dutch criminal justice system

ABSTRACT Homicide engenders broad moral concerns in society, and its aftermath can be understood as a barometer for criminal justice policy. Of all homicides committed, however, only some lead to arrest, to prosecution and ultimately to conviction in court. So far, no study has assessed the entire flow of homicide cases through the criminal justice system based on a nationwide sample. This study seeks to fill this empirical void by describing the entire flow of homicide cases and assessing the size of outflow at each stage of the criminal justice funnel in the Netherlands for a 20-year period. Our analysis highlights two main findings: First, the vast majority of suspects first identified by the police are ultimately sentenced for a homicide. Second, even in a country with low homicide rates and high rule of law indices, selection takes place at all stages of the criminal justice funnel. Whilst outflow mostly centres around exceptional clearance and legal factors, future work should assess the extent to which extra-legal characteristics play a role in crimes that are being investigated as potential homicides.

Countries where Women Have more Positive Interactions with Economic Decisions and Legal Rights Have Lower Homicide Rates: an Exploratory Study

Women’s struggle for equal legal rights, which is a critical component of their own economic growth, has always been a pressing social and human rights issue. While gains have been made for some women, important variability remains not only within nations but also across nations. How this accessibility manifests itself in social outcomes however, has received little attention. One important outcome that is of significant concern throughout the world is homicide. In this paper, we link women’s rights to overall homicide rates. We use cross-national data for almost two hundred countries spanning the world’s regions to investigate whether countries where women experience more gender discrimination in economic and family decisions have higher homicide rates. Using finite mixture modeling, we find significant variation in a discrimination index and that countries grouped by their level of discrimination experience significantly different overall homicide rates. In countries with the least discrimination, we found the lowest overall average homicide rate.

The Impact of State Firearm Laws on Homicide Rates among Black and White Populations in the United States, 1991-2016.

This study aimed to investigate the potential differential effects of state-level firearm laws on black and white populations. Using a panel design, authors examined the relationship between state firearm laws and homicide victimization rates among white people and black people in 39 states during the period between 1991 and 2016. Authors modeled homicide rates using linear regression with year and state fixed effects and controlled for a range of time-varying, state-level factors. Results showed that universal background check laws and permit requirement laws were associated with lower homicide rates among both white and black populations, and "shall issue" laws were associated with higher homicide rates among both white and black populations. Laws that prohibit firearm possession among people convicted of a violent misdemeanor or require relinquishment of firearms by people with a domestic violence restraining order were associated with lower black homicide rates, but not with white homicide rates. Author identification of heterogeneity in the associations between state firearm laws and homicide rates among different racial groups has implications for reducing racial health disparities.

Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership and Homicides: Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock

Do firearm purchase delay laws reduce aggregate homicide levels? Using quasi-experimental evidence from a 6-month countrywide gun demand shock starting in late 2012, we show that U.S. states with legislation preventing immediate handgun purchases experienced smaller increases in handgun sales. Our findings are hard to reconcile with entirely rational consumers, but suggest that gun buyers behave time-inconsistently. In a second step, we demonstrate that states with purchase delays also witnessed 3% lower homicide rates during the same period compared to states allowing instant handgun access. We report suggestive evidence that lower handgun sales primarily reduced impulsive assaults and domestic violence.

Analysis of the quality of information on mortality by homicide from deaths with undetermined intent. Bahia, Brazil, from 2002-2013.

To identify patterns in the spatial distribution of homicide death rates, considering the proportion of deaths of undetermined intent in the municipalities of the State of Bahia, from 2002 to 2013. An ecological study was carried out, using data from the Mortality Information System (SIM). Theproportional mortality of undetermined intent on the total external causes and the homicide rate were analyzed in several municipalities of Bahia and considering the Health Macro-regions (HMRs). A-non-random mortality distribution pattern was observed, according to the overall Moran index, which was clearer in the 2005-2007, 2008-2010 and 2011-2013 triennia. The highest proportions of undetermined deaths, ≥ 50%, were concentrated in the State's Western region. On the other hand, the highest homicide rates were observed in the Far South, South and East regions - coastal municipalities. The same municipalities and regions identified with low homicide rates concomitantly presented high proportions of undetermined deaths, and conversely, where there were high rates, there was also a low proportion of undetermined death. Therefore,it is essential to take into account the quality of information about the underlying cause.

Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership and Homicides: Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock

Do firearm purchase delay laws reduce aggregate homicide levels? Using quasi-experimental evidence from a 6-month countrywide gun demand shock starting in late 2012, we show that U.S. states with legislation preventing immediate handgun purchases experienced smaller increases in handgun sales. Our findings are hard to reconcile with entirely rational consumers, but suggest that gun buyers behave time-inconsistently. In a second step, we demonstrate that states with purchase delays also witnessed 3% lower homicide rates during the same period compared to states allowing instant handgun access. We report suggestive evidence that lower handgun sales primarily reduced impulsive assaults and domestic violence.

Breaking state impunity in post-authoritarian regimes

This article claims that cross-national variation in criminal violence in new democracies is highly dependent on whether elites adopt transitional justice processes to address a repressive past. State specialists in violence who repress political dissidents under authoritarian rule often play a crucial role in the operation of criminal markets and in the production of criminal violence in democracy. Some of them defect from the state to become the armed branch of criminal organizations in their deadly fights against the state and rival groups; others remain but protect criminal organizations from positions of state power; and still others use state power to fight criminals through iron-fist policies. When post-authoritarian elites adopt transitional justice processes to expose, prosecute, and punish state specialists in violence for gross human rights violations committed during the authoritarian era, they redefine the rules of state coercion and deter members of the armed forces and the police from becoming leading actors in the production of criminal violence. Using a dataset of 76 countries that transitioned from authoritarian rule to democracy between 1974 and 2005, we show that the adoption of strong truth commissions is strongly associated with lower murder rates; we also find that the implementation of trials that result in guilty verdicts is associated with lower homicide rates only when the trials are jointly implemented with a strong truth commission. In contrast, amnesty laws appear to stimulate criminal violence. Our findings are particularly robust for Latin America and remain unchanged even after addressing selection effects via matching techniques.

Does ethnic diversity increase violent crime? A global analysis of homicide rates, 1995–2013

Many scholars argue that diverse preferences and coordination failure stemming from high ethnic diversity results in high social frictions, leading to socio-political failure. Criminological theories suggest that crime is driven by very similar processes. The specialized literature on civil war, however, reports a diversity dividend, arguing that when two large groups (polarization) make up a society, the risk of armed violence is increased. Using data on global homicide rates from the period 1995–2013 for over 140 countries, we find that ethnic heterogeneity is associated with homicide rates in an inverted U-shape relationship. Measures of ethnic polarization confirm these results directly. The results suggests that ethnic polarization and ethnic dominance rather than diversity are what matter for personal security measured as homicide rates. The conditional effect of high diversity and income inequality is associated with lower homicide rates, results that reject the view that societal heterogeneity and income inequality drive social dislocation. Several possible intervening variables, such as unemployment among males and youth, ethnic exclusion and discrimination, good governance and institutional quality, as well as several demographic and political variables, do not affect the basic results. It seems that the heavy emphasis placed on ethnic diversity for explaining social dislocation and violence, in so far as it relates to a country’s homicide rate, seems to be misplaced.

Psychiatric benefits of lithium in water supplies may be due to protection from the neurotoxicity of lead exposure

IntroductionLithium is a medication used to treat bipolar disorder and may also prevent cognitive decline and suicide. Lithium is also found naturally, in levels well below clinical doses, in drinking water worldwide, and levels have been inversely associated with rates of psychiatric disorders. Lead (Pb) is another element in the environment but is a toxin of public health concern. Negative effects of chronic lead exposure and possible benefits of environmental lithium exposure appear complementary. HypothesisExposure to environmental lithium has associated benefits, which may be due to the mitigation of lead toxicity by lithium. MethodsA series of reviews tested each element of the hypothesis. A systematic review clarified the psychiatric and medical correlates of lithium in drinking water. Non-systematic reviews clarified the harms of environmental lead, summarized experimental studies of lithium used to prevent lead toxicity, and explored overlapping biological mechanisms in lithium and lead exposure. ResultsHigher levels of lithium in drinking water were associated with lower suicide rates in 13 of 15 identified studies. While fewer studies were available for other outcomes, lithium was associated with lower rates of homicide, crime, dementia, and mortality. Lead was reported to be ubiquitous in the environment, and chronic low-level exposure has been associated with adverse effects, including effects opposite to the outcomes associated with lithium. Animal studies demonstrated that lithium pre-treatment mitigates lead toxicity. Neurophysiological correlates of lead and lithium exposure overlap. ConclusionsMicrodose lithium is associated with better psychiatric and medical outcomes, which are complementary to harms of environmental lead exposure. Experimental animal evidence is supportive, and lead and lithium impact overlapping neurophysiologic pathways. Therefore, several lines of circumstantial evidence suggest that lithium protects against the neurotoxic effects of lead. Further studies are required to clarify the benefits and mechanisms of low-dose lithium. There are significant public health implications if this paper's hypothesis is true.

Homicide clearance in Western Europe.

This study provides an overview of homicide clearance in four West European countries: Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland. Using data from the European Homicide Monitor, employing similar definitions and uniform coding schemes, this study allowed for unique cross-country comparisons in factors influencing differences in homicide clearance rates. Findings based on homicides occurring in the period 2009–14 revealed overall low homicide rates in all countries, with a wide variety in homicide clearance rates, ranging from 77 percent in the Netherlands to 98 percent in Finland. Results further showed that both event-based as well as victim-based characteristics significantly influenced the likelihood of homicide clearance, suggesting that homicide clearance rates can, for a large part, be attributed to the prevalent types of homicide in each of these European countries.

State Firearm Laws and Interstate Firearm Deaths From Homicide and Suicide in the United States

ImportanceFirearm laws in one state may be associated with increased firearm death rates from homicide and suicide in neighboring states.ObjectiveTo determine whether counties located closer to states with lenient firearm policies have higher firearm death rates.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study of firearm death rates by county for January 2010 to December 2014 examined data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for firearm suicide and homicide decedents for 3108 counties in the 48 contiguous states of the United States.ExposuresEach county was assigned 2 scores, a state policy score (range, 0-12) based on the strength of its state firearm laws, and an interstate policy score (range, −1.33 to 8.31) based on the sum of population-weighted and distance-decayed policy scores for all other states. Counties were divided into those with low, medium, and high home state and interstate policy scores.Main Outcomes and MeasuresCounty-level rates of firearm, nonfirearm, and total homicide and suicide. With multilevel Bayesian spatial Poisson models, we generated incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing incidence rates between each group of counties and the reference group, counties with high home state and high interstate policy scores.ResultsStronger firearm laws in a state were associated with lower firearm suicide rates and lower overall suicide rates regardless of the strength of the other states’ laws. Counties with low state scores had the highest rates of firearm suicide. Rates were similar across levels of interstate policy score (low: IRR, 1.34; 95% credible interval [CI], 1.11-1.65; medium: IRR, 1.36, (95% CI, 1.15-1.65; and high: IRR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20-1.73). Counties with low state and low or medium interstate policy scores had the highest rates of firearm homicide. Counties with low home state and interstate scores had higher firearm homicide rates (IRR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.02-1.88) and overall homicide rates (IRR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03-1.67). Counties in states with low firearm policy scores had lower rates of firearm homicide only if the interstate firearm policy score was high.Conclusions and RelevanceStrong state firearm policies were associated with lower suicide rates regardless of other states’ laws. Strong policies were associated with lower homicide rates, and strong interstate policies were also associated with lower homicide rates, where home state policies were permissive. Strengthening state firearm policies may prevent firearm suicide and homicide, with benefits that may extend beyond state lines.

The Myth of Mob Rule: Violent Crime and Democratic Politics. Lisa L. Miller. New York: Oxford University Press (2016). 272pp. £26.49hb ISBN 9780190228705

The Myth of Mob Rule: Violent Crime and Democratic Politics. Lisa L. Miller. New York: Oxford University Press (2016). 272pp. £26.49hb ISBN 9780190228705

Spending on social and public health services and its association with homicide in the USA: an ecological study

ObjectiveTo examine whether state-level spending on social and public health services is associated with lower rates of homicide in the USA.DesignEcological study.SettingUSA.ParticipantsAll states in the USA and the District of...

Where Poverty Matters: Examining the Cross-national Relationship Between Economic Deprivation and Homicide

Recent research on the role of economic deprivation in explaining cross-national homicide rates is inconsistent. These inconsistencies may be attributed to the use of samples composed primarily of developed countries, and the implicit assumption that the impact of deprivation is constant throughout the homicide distribution. The current study challenges this assumption and suggests a dynamic relationship between deprivation and homicide. Using a broad sample of 148 countries this work applies quantile regression to examine whether inequality and poverty have consistent impacts across the entire homicide distribution. Results indicate that inequality and homicide have a universal positive relationship. In contrast, poverty is only related to homicide in countries with lower homicide rates. Findings are discussed within the context of strain theory.