Abstract

To identify patterns in the spatial distribution of homicide death rates, considering the proportion of deaths of undetermined intent in the municipalities of the State of Bahia, from 2002 to 2013. An ecological study was carried out, using data from the Mortality Information System (SIM). Theproportional mortality of undetermined intent on the total external causes and the homicide rate were analyzed in several municipalities of Bahia and considering the Health Macro-regions (HMRs). A-non-random mortality distribution pattern was observed, according to the overall Moran index, which was clearer in the 2005-2007, 2008-2010 and 2011-2013 triennia. The highest proportions of undetermined deaths, ≥ 50%, were concentrated in the State's Western region. On the other hand, the highest homicide rates were observed in the Far South, South and East regions - coastal municipalities. The same municipalities and regions identified with low homicide rates concomitantly presented high proportions of undetermined deaths, and conversely, where there were high rates, there was also a low proportion of undetermined death. Therefore,it is essential to take into account the quality of information about the underlying cause.

Highlights

  • Recent studies on homicides in the country have shown that states in the North and Northeast Regions with low or medium homicide rates are presenting worrying increases

  • Due to the increasing importance of homicides in the State of Bahia, this study intendeds to identify patterns in the spatial distribution of Triennial Homicide Mortality Rates (HMTs), considering the proportion of deaths of undetermined intent in the municipalities of the State, from 2002 to 2013. This is an ecological study, in which the spatial distribution of HMTs was analyzed in municipalities of Bahia from 2002 to 2013, taking into account the quality of the information which is evaluated according to the Proportion of Deaths by Undetermined Intent (PDUI)

  • The highest homicide rate recorded in the first triennium (2002-2004) was 180.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the municipality of Juazeiro, in the Northern Health Macro-regions (HMRs)

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Summary

Introduction

Recent studies on homicides in the country have shown that states in the North and Northeast Regions with low or medium homicide rates are presenting worrying increases. Between 1998 and 2012, the state of Bahia, for example, moved from the twenty-second to the fifth position in homicide rates according to Federal Units (UFs) in Brazil[1]. In just over a decade, Bahia has more than tripled its average homicide rate, with some of its municipalities leading the country’s homicide ranking[2,3]. The use of spatial analysis tools assists in assessing and monitoring regional inequalities, both to identify differences in accessibility to health services and in the design of impacts of certain threats — such as homicide — and to support the planning of actions aimed at the improvement of information systems, which, within a geographical context, may require specific public actions and policies for each region and municipality[3,4]. When working with mortality from external causes, the limitations of the records in the Mortality Information System (SIM) should be considered[5,6]

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