Low Streamflow Conditions Research Articles

Chytrid infections exhibit historical spread and contemporary seasonality in a declining stream-breeding frog.

Species with extensive geographical ranges pose special challenges to assessing drivers of wildlife disease, necessitating collaborative and large-scale analyses. The imperilled foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii) inhabits a wide geographical range and variable conditions in rivers of California and Oregon (USA), and is considered threatened by the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To assess drivers of Bd infections over time and space, we compiled over 2000 datapoints from R. boylii museum specimens (collected 1897-2005) and field samples (2005-2021) spanning 9° of latitude. We observed a south-to-north spread of Bd detections beginning in the 1940s and increase in prevalence from the 1940s to 1970s, coinciding with extirpation from southern latitudes. We detected eight high-prevalence geographical clusters through time that span the species' geographical range. Field-sampled male R. boylii exhibited the highest prevalence, and juveniles sampled in autumn exhibited the highest loads. Bd infection risk was highest in lower elevation rain-dominated watersheds, and with cool temperatures and low stream-flow conditions at the end of the dry season. Through a holistic assessment of relationships between infection risk, geographical context and time, we identify the locations and time periods where Bd mitigation and monitoring will be critical for conservation of this imperilled species.

Hydrological regimes explain the seasonal predictability of streamflow extremes

Advances in hydrological modeling and numerical weather forecasting have allowed hydro-climate services to provide accurate impact simulations and skillful forecasts that can drive decisions at the local scale. To enhance early warnings and long-term risk reduction actions, it is imperative to better understand the hydrological extremes and explore the drivers for their predictability. Here, we investigate the seasonal forecast skill of streamflow extremes over the pan-European domain, and further attribute the discrepancy in their predictability to the local river system memory as described by the hydrological regimes. Streamflow forecasts at about 35 400 basins, generated from the E-HYPE hydrological model driven with bias-adjusted ECMWF SEAS5 meteorological forcing input, are explored. Overall the results show adequate predictability for both hydrological extremes over Europe, despite the spatial variability in skill. The skill of high streamflow extreme deteriorates faster as a function of lead time than that of low extreme, with a positive skill persisting up to 12 and 20 weeks ahead for high and low extremes, respectively. A strong link between the predictability of extremes and the underlying local hydrological regime is identified through comparative analysis, indicating that systems of analogous river memory, e.g. fast or slow response to rainfall, can similarly predict the high and low streamflow extremes. The results improve our understanding of the geographical areas and periods, where the seasonal forecasts can timely provide information on very high and low streamflow conditions, including the drivers controlling their predictability. This consequently benefits regional and national organizations to embrace seasonal prediction systems and improve the capacity to act in order to reduce disaster risk and support climate adaptation.

Effects of Storm Surge Barrier Closures on Estuary Saltwater Intrusion and Stratification

AbstractGated storm surge barriers have been constructed or proposed in many estuaries worldwide for coastal flood risk reduction. Past studies have shown that, even when open, a barrier system's fixed infrastructure can increase estuary stratification and salt intrusion, potentially affecting water quality and ecological processes. However, surge barrier closures could have a much stronger influence on estuary conditions by temporarily blocking the tidal exchange. In this project, we use an existing regional three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model, with modifications to simulate surge barrier closure and reopening, to study the effects on estuarine salt intrusion and stratification of the Hudson River. Across a range of modeled scenarios of gate closure frequencies, durations and river streamflows, we evaluate the changes caused by gate closures, as well as the recovery time to normal conditions. Our results for the Hudson show long‐duration gate closures (three or more days) with low streamflows temporarily lead to salt intrusion and stratification beyond recent historical extremes. Moreover, monthly frequency closures, which could occur as soon as 2070 under realistic scenarios of sea‐level rise and barrier management, do not allow for recovery under low streamflow conditions and could lead to durable changes to estuary physical conditions. As a result, long duration closures and high‐frequency closures both constitute a threat to municipal water supplies. This study demonstrates a framework for understanding the potential impacts of any proposed surge barrier system and can help improve our understanding of corresponding ecological impacts.

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in Water Demand Scenarios Using SWAT-MODFLOW-WEAP

In this article, we present the use of the coupled land surface model and groundwater flow model SWAT-MODFLOW with the decision support tool WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning software) to predict future surface-water abstraction scenarios in a complex river basin under conditions of climate change. The modelling framework is applied to the Dee River catchment in Wales, United Kingdom. Regarding hydrology, the coupled model improves overall water balance and low-streamflow conditions compared with a stand-alone SWAT model. The calibrated SWAT-MODFLOW is employed with high-resolution climate model data from the UKCP18 project with the future scenario of RCP85 from 2020 to 2040. Then, water supply results from SWAT-MODFLOW are fed into WEAP as input for the river reach in the downstream region of the river basin. This system is utilized to create various future scenarios of the surface-water abstraction of public water supply in the downstream region—maximum licensed withdraw, 50% authorized abstractions, monthly time series with 1% increases in water use, and maximum water withdraw per year based on historical records repeated every year with 1% increases in water use—to estimate the unmet demands and streamflow requirement. This modelling approach can be used in other river basins to manage scenarios of supply and demand.

Analysis of drought conditions and their impacts in a headwater stream in the Central European lower mountain ranges

Headwaters represent a significant fraction of the global stream length and are important for streamflow quality and quantity. Since climate change is predicted to affect runoff generation processes fundamentally, it is essential to understand potential consequences for the water availability in headwater catchments. The Lehstenbach catchment, located in the Fichtel Mountains (Germany), represents many headwater catchments in the lower mountain ranges in Central Europe. This study’s primary objective is to predict and analyze potential shifts in the catchment’s water balance, estimate periods of hydrological drought conditions, and their characteristics. For this purpose, we used an integrated process-based hydrological model to represent surface/groundwater interactions and runoff generation mechanisms for the Lehstenbach catchment until 2100, using a Regional Climate Model Ensemble. The simulations indicate decreased water availability in summer and autumn, mainly due to increased evapotranspiration rates. The Minimum Environmental Flow (MEF), a quantitative measure of aquatic species’ exposition to abnormally low streamflow conditions, implies an increase of low flow conditions towards 2100. A first estimate indicates a possible increase of hydrological drought duration and intensity in the future. These findings suggest severe impacts on ecosystem health and services, such as decreasing water availability, leading to consequences like forest and wetland degradation and declining biodiversity. These findings can be used to implement suitable mitigation strategies to reduce climate change effects on the headwater ecosystems, such as water shortage for irrigation and drinking water supply and loss of flora and fauna.

On the need for streamflow drought frequency guidelines in the U.S.

Abstract Extreme drought and resulting low streamflows occur throughout the U.S., causing billions of dollars in annual losses, detrimentally impacting ecosystems, as well as agricultural, hydropower, navigation, water supply, recreation, and a myriad of other water resource systems, leading to reductions in both the effectiveness and resiliency of our water resource infrastructure. Since 1966, with the introduction of Bulletin 13 titled ‘Methods of Flow Frequency Analysis’, the U.S. adopted uniform guidelines for performing flood flow frequency analysis to ensure and enable all federal agencies concerned with water resource design, planning, and management under flood conditions to obtain sensible, consistent, and reproducible estimators of flood flow statistics. Remarkably, over one-half century later, no uniform national U.S. guidelines for hydrologic drought streamflow frequency analysis exist, and the various assorted guidelines that do exist are not reliable because (1) they are based on methods developed for floods, which are distinctly different than low streamflows and (2) the methods do not take advantage of the myriad of advances in flood and low streamflow frequency analyses over the last 50 years. We provide a justification for the need for developing national guidelines for streamflow drought frequency analysis as an analog to the existing national guidelines for flood frequency analysis. Those guidelines should result in improved water resources design, planning, operations, and management under low streamflow conditions throughout the U.S. and could prove useful elsewhere.

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.

Hydrological drought assessment through streamflow forecasting using wavelet enabled artificial neural networks

In semi-arid watersheds, hydrological drought is manifested by reasonably low streamflow conditions. This makes streamflow forecasting as an inevitable component for implementing drought management practices. Data-driven modelling techniques are often applied for simulating the streamflow forecasts. In this study, a comparison between conventional feedforward neural network (FFNN) model and wavelet enabled artificial neural network (WANN) model is carried out to analyse their effectiveness in streamflow forecasting. The input data used to develop and simulate the models are monthly precipitation, and monthly river stage of twenty-five years (January 1991 to December 2015). Data pre-processing is carried out using correlation analysis prior to neural network modelling for selecting appropriate input combinations. The preprocessed data is directly given as input for FFNN; whereas for WANN, the preprocessed time series datasets are decomposed into several sub-series and are used as the inputs. Analysis on three different transfer functions that are commonly used in ANN models is carried out to identify the best transfer function. Hyperbolic tangent sigmoid transfer function is found to be best suitable for modelling streamflow forecasts. The result also shows that there is a significant improvement in streamflow forecasting ability for WANN models compared to FFNN. Drought forecasting is carried out by developing a standardized streamflow index from the forecasted streamflow. The drought forecasting technique discussed here will help planners to make informed decisions on watershed management and drought mitigation measures.

A multi-technique approach to determine temporal and spatial variability of groundwater-stream water exchange

Characterizing the spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes is of paramount importance in understanding catchment behavior. A wide range of field-based techniques are available for such characterization. The objective of this study is to quantify the spatio-temporal distribution of the exchange fluxes along the Cakit stream (Nigde, Turkey) through coupling a set of geophysical techniques and in-stream measurements in a hierarchical manner. First, geological and water quality information were combined at the catchment scale to determine key areas for reach-scale focus. Second, electromagnetic induction (EMI) surveys were conducted along the reach to pinpoint potential groundwater upwelling locations. EMI anomalies guided our focus to a 665 meter-long reach of the stream. Along this selected reach, a fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) system was utilized to investigate streambed-temperature profiles at fine spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, vertical hydraulic gradients and exchange fluxes were investigated using nested piezometers and vertical temperature profiles, respectively, at two potential upwelling locations and a potential downwelling location identified by previous surveys. The results of the study reveal heterogeneity of vertical water-flow components with seasonal variability. The EMI survey was successful in identifying a localized groundwater upwelling location. FO-DTS measurements revealed a warm temperature anomaly during cold air temperature and low streamflow conditions at the same upwelling site. Our point-based methods, namely vertical temperature profiles and vertical hydraulic gradient estimates, however, did not always provide consistent results with each other and with EMI and DTS measurements. This study, therefore, highlights the opportunities and challenges in incorporating multi-scale observations in a hierarchical manner in characterization of the groundwater-surface water exchange processes that are known to be highly heterogeneous in time and space. Overall, a combination of different methods helps to overcome the limitations of each single method and increases confidence in the obtained results.

Future hydrological constraints of the Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) under changing climate and vegetation cover.

The Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km2 holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environmental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi. We used the rainfall–runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near‐future (2031–2050) and far‐future (2081–2100) periods in a reference catchment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expansion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservation.

Seasonal Predictability and Change of Large-Scale Summer Precipitation Patterns over the Northeast United States

AbstractThis study examines space–time patterns of summer daily rainfall variability across the Northeast United States, with a focus on historical trends and the potential for long-lead predictability. A hidden Markov model based on daily data is used to define six weather states that represent distinct patterns of rainfall across the region, and composites are used to examine atmospheric circulation during each state. The states represent the occurrence of region-wide dry and wet conditions associated with a large-scale ridge and trough over the Northeast, respectively, as well as inland and coastal storm tracks. There is a positive trend in the frequency of the weather state associated with heavy, regionwide rainfall, which is mirrored by a decreasing trend in the frequency of stationary ridges and regionwide dry conditions. The frequency of state occurrences is also examined for historical Northeast droughts. Two primary drought types emerge that are characterized by region-wide dry conditions linked to a persistent ridge and an eastward-shifted storm track associated with light precipitation along the coastline. Finally, composites of May sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) prior to summers with high and low frequencies of each weather state are used to assess long-lead predictability. These composites are compared against similar composites based on regional anomalies in low streamflow conditions [June–August 7-day low flows (SDLFs)]. Results indicate that springtime SSTs, particularly those in the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic Ocean, provide some predictability for summers with above-average precipitation and SDLFs, but SSTs provide little information on the occurrence of drought conditions across the Northeast.

Assessing water-quality changes in US rivers at multiple geographic scales using results from probabilistic and targeted monitoring

Two commonly used approaches for water quality monitoring are probabilistic and targeted. In a probabilistic approach like the US Environmental Protection Agency’s National Rivers and Streams Assessment, monitoring sites are selected using a statistically representative approach. In a targeted approach like that used by many monitoring organizations, monitoring sites are chosen individually to answer specific questions. One important goal of both approaches is documenting long-term changes in water quality. Here, we compare chloride change results in US rivers and streams between the early 2000s and early 2010s from both approaches. The probabilistic approach provided an unbiased representation of change in all US rivers and streams, but was designed to measure low-streamflow conditions within a spring/summer index period during periodic survey years. The targeted approach was focused on larger, more developed watersheds but samples were collected frequently throughout the assessment period in different seasons and streamflows. The probabilistic results showed a small decrease in chloride concentrations in rivers and streams with the lowest concentrations, but no consistent increase or decrease in the remainder. The increased granularity of the targeted results showed that there was, in fact, a mix of changes occurring, with increases at 132 sites, decreases at 112 sites, and relatively stable conditions at 55 sites. The combined results suggest that chloride is not responding to a widespread, common driver across the USA and that management of chloride would be most effective when targeted regionally or locally.

Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions

Abstract. The paper presents a methodology that gives insight into the performance of ensemble streamflow-forecasting systems. We have developed an ensemble forecasting system for the Biała Tarnowska, a mountainous river catchment in southern Poland, and analysed the performance for lead times ranging from 1 to 10 days for low, medium and high streamflow and different hydrometeorological conditions. Precipitation and temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts served as inputs to a deterministic lumped hydrological (HBV) model. Due to a non-homogeneous bias in time, pre- and post-processing of the meteorological and streamflow forecasts are not effective. The best forecast skill, relative to alternative forecasts based on meteorological climatology, is shown for high streamflow and snow accumulation low-streamflow events. Forecasts of medium-streamflow events and low-streamflow events under precipitation deficit conditions show less skill. To improve performance of the forecasting system for high-streamflow events, the meteorological forecasts are most important. Besides, it is recommended that the hydrological model be calibrated specifically on low-streamflow conditions and high-streamflow conditions. Further, it is recommended that the dispersion (reliability) of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is enlarged by including the uncertainties in the hydrological model parameters and the initial conditions, and by enlarging the dispersion of the meteorological input forecasts.

Insights on stream temperature processes through development of a coupled hydrologic and stream temperature model for forested coastal headwater catchments

AbstractStream temperature controls a number of biological, chemical, and physical processes occurring in aquatic environments. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs can have a dominant influence on stream thermal regimes for headwater catchments in the rain‐on‐snow zone. Most existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. We developed and evaluated a conceptual‐parametric catchment‐scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model consists of routines for simulating canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, hillslope throughflow runoff and temperature, and stream channel energy exchange processes. The model was used to predict discharge and stream temperature for a small forested headwater catchment near Vancouver, Canada, using long‐term (1963–2013) weather data to compute model forcing variables. The model was evaluated against 4 years of observed stream temperature. The model generally predicted daily mean stream temperature accurately (annual RMSE between 0.57 and 1.24 °C) although it overpredicted daily summer stream temperatures by up to 3 °C during extended low streamflow conditions. Model development and testing provided insights on the roles of advection associated with lateral throughflow, channel interception of snow, and surface–subsurface water interactions on stream thermal regimes. This study shows that a relatively simple but process‐based model can provide reasonable stream temperature predictions for forested headwater catchments located in the rain‐on‐snow zone.

Post-Processing of Stream Flows in Switzerland with an Emphasis on Low Flows and Floods

Post-processing has received much attention during the last couple of years within the hydrological community, and many different methods have been developed and tested, especially in the field of flood forecasting. Apart from the different meanings of the phrase “post-processing” in meteorology and hydrology, in this paper, it is regarded as a method to correct model outputs (predictions) based on meteorological (1) observed input data, (2) deterministic forecasts (single time series) and (3) ensemble forecasts (multiple time series) and to derive predictive uncertainties. So far, the majority of the research has been related to floods, how to remove bias and improve the forecast accuracy and how to minimize dispersion errors. Given that global changes are driving climatic forces, there is an urgent need to improve the quality of low-flow predictions, as well, even in regions that are normally less prone to drought. For several catchments in Switzerland, different post-processing methods were tested with respect to low stream flow and flooding conditions. The complexity of the applied procedures ranged from simple AR processes to more complex methodologies combining wavelet transformations and Quantile Regression Neural Networks (QRNN) and included the derivation of predictive uncertainties. Furthermore, various verification methods were tested in order to quantify the possible improvements that could be gained by applying these post-processing procedures based on different stream flow conditions. Preliminary results indicate that there is no single best method, but with an increase of complexity, a significant improvement of the quality of the predictions can be achieved.

Streamflow Trends and Responses to Climate Variability and Land Cover Change in South Dakota

Trends in high, moderate, and low streamflow conditions from United States Geological Survey (USGS) gauging stations were evaluated for a period of 1951–2013 for 18 selected watersheds in South Dakota (SD) using a modified Mann-Kendall test. Rainfall trends from 21 rainfall observation stations located within 20-km of the streamflow gauging stations were also evaluated for the same study period. The concept of elasticity was used to examine sensitivity of streamflow to variation in rainfall and land cover (i.e., grassland) in the study watersheds. Results indicated significant increasing trends in seven of the studied streams (of which five are in the east and two are located in the west), nine with slight increasing trends, and two with decreasing trends for annual streamflow. About half of the streams exhibited significant increasing trends in low and moderate flow conditions compared to high flow conditions. Ten rainfall stations showed slight increasing trends and seven showed decreasing trends for annual rainfall. Streamflow elasticity analysis revealed that streamflow was highly influenced by rainfall across the state (five of eastern streams and seven of western streams). Based on this analysis, a 10% increase in annual rainfall would result in 11%–30% increase in annual streamflow in more than 60% of SD streams. While streamflow appears to be more sensitive to rainfall across the state, high sensitivity of streamflow to rapid decrease in grassland area was detected in two western watersheds. This study provides valuable insight into of the relationship between streamflow, climate, and grassland cover in SD and would support further research and stakeholder decision making about water resources.

Spatial and temporal variation in de facto wastewater reuse in drinking water systems across the U.S.A.

De facto potable reuse occurs when treated wastewater is discharged into surface waters upstream of potable drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) intakes. Wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) discharges may pose water quality risks at the downstream DWTP, but additional flow aids in providing a reliable water supply source. In this work de facto reuse is analyzed for 2056 surface water intakes serving 1210 DWTPs across the U.S.A. that serve greater than 10,000 people, covering approximately 82% of the nation’s population. An ArcGIS model is developed to assess spatial relationships between DWTPs and WWTPs, with a python script designed to perform a network analysis by hydrologic region. A high frequency of de facto reuse occurrence was observed; 50% of the DWTP intakes are potentially impacted by upstream WWTP discharges. However, the magnitude of de facto reuse was seen to be relatively low, where 50% of the impacted intakes contained less than 1% treated municipal wastewater under average streamflow conditions. De facto reuse increased greatly under low streamflow conditions (modeled by Q95), with 32 of the 80 sites yielding at least 50% treated wastewater, this portion of the analysis is limited to sites where stream gauge data was readily available.

Assessment of De Facto Wastewater Reuse across the U.S.: Trends between 1980 and 2008

De facto wastewater reuse is the incidental presence of treated wastewater in a water supply source. In 1980 the EPA identified drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) impacted by upstream wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) discharges and found the top 25 most impacted DWTPs contained between 2% and 16% wastewater discharges from upstream locations (i.e., de facto reuse) under average streamflow conditions. This study is the first to provide an update to the 1980 EPA analysis. An ArcGIS model of DWTPs and WWTPs across the U.S. was created to quantify de facto reuse for the top 25 cities in the 1980 EPA study. From 1980 to 2008, de facto reuse increased for 17 of the 25 DWTPs, as municipal flows upstream of the sites increased by 68%. Under low streamflow conditions, de facto reuse in DWTP supplies ranged from 7% to 100%, illustrating the importance of wastewater in sustainable water supplies. Case studies were performed on four cities to analyze the reasons for changes in de facto reuse over time. Three of the four sites have greater than 20% treated wastewater effluent within their drinking water source for streamflow less than the 25th percentile historic flow.

A hydrologic and geomorphic model of estuary breaching and closure

To better understand how the hydrology of bar-built estuaries affects breaching and closing patterns, a model is developed that incorporates an estuary hydrologic budget with a geomorphic model of the inlet system. Erosion of the inlet is caused by inlet flow, whereas the only morphologic effect of waves is the deposition of sand into the inlet. When calibrated, the model is able to reproduce the initial seasonal breaching, seasonal closure, intermittent closures and breaches, and the low-streamflow (closed state) estuary hydrology of the Carmel Lagoon, located in Central California. Model performance was tested against three separate years of water-level observations. When open during these years, the inlet was visually observed to drain directly across the beach berm, in accordance with model assumptions. The calibrated model predicts the observed 48-h estuary stage amplitude with root mean square errors of 0.45m, 0.39m and 0.42m for the three separate years. For the calibrated model, the probability that the estuary inlet is closed decreases exponentially with increasing inflow (streamflow plus wave overtopping), decreasing 10-fold in probability as mean daily inflow increases from 0.2 to 1.0m3/s. Seasonal patterns of inlet state reflect the seasonal pattern of streamflow, though wave overtopping may become the main hydrologic flux during low streamflow conditions, infrequently causing short-lived breaches. In a series of sensitivity analyses it is seen that the status of the inlet and storage of water are sensitive to factors that control the storage, transmission, and inflow of water. By varying individual components of the berm system and estuary storage, the amount of the time the estuary is open may increase by 57%, or decrease by 44%, compared to the amount of time the estuary is open during calibrated model conditions for the 18.2-year model period. The individual components tested are: berm height, width, length, and hydraulic conductivity; estuary hypsometry (storage to stage relationship); two factors that control wave-swash sedimentation of the inlet; and sea level rise. The elevation of the berm determines the volume of water that must enter the estuary in order to breach, and it modulates the wave-overtopping flux and frequency. By increasing estuary storage capacity, the estuary will breach less frequently (−27% change in time open for modeled excavation scenario) and store water up to 3months later into the summer. Altering beach aquifer hydraulic conductivity affects inlet state, and patterns of breaching and water storage. As a result of sea-level rise of 1.67m by 2100, and a beach berm that remains in its current location and accretes vertically, the amount of time the estuary remains open may decrease by 44%. Such a change is an end-member of likely scenarios given that the berm will translate landwards. Model results indicate that the amount of time the estuary is open is more sensitive to changes in wave run-up than the amount of sand deposited in the inlet per each overtopping wave.

Long‐Term Water Quality and Biological Responses to Multiple Best Management Practices in Rock Creek, Idaho1

Abstract: Water quality and macroinvertebrate assemblage data from 1981 to 2005 were assessed to evaluate the water quality and biological responses of a western trout stream to the implementation of multiple best management practices (BMPs) on irrigated cropland. Data from Rock Creek near Twin Falls, Idaho, a long‐term monitoring site, were assembled from state and federal sources to provide the evaluation. Seasonal loads of the nonpoint source pollutants suspended sediment (SS), total phosphorus (TP), and nitrate‐nitrite (NN) were estimated using a regression model with time‐series streamflow data and constituent concentrations. Trends in the macroinvertebrate assemblages were evaluated using a number of biological metrics and nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination. Regression analysis found significant annual decreases in TP and SS flow‐adjusted concentrations during the BMP implementation period from 1983 to 1990 of about 7 and 10%, respectively. These results are coincident with the implementation of multiple BMPs on about 75% of the irrigated cropland in the watershed. Macroinvertebrate assemblages during this time also responded with a change in taxa composition resulting in improved biotic index scores. Taxon specific TP and SS optima, empirically derived from a large national dataset, predicted a decrease in SS concentrations of about 37% (52 to 33 mg/l) and a decrease in TP concentrations of about 50% (0.20 to 0.10 mg/l) from 1981 to 1987. Decreasing trends in TP, SS, and NN pollutant loads were primarily the result of naturally low streamflow conditions during the BMP post‐implementation period from 1993 to 2005. Trends in macroinvertebrate responses during 1993 to 2005 were confounded by the introduction of the New Zealand mudsnail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum), which approached densities of 100,000 per m2 in riffle habitat. The occurrence of this invasive species appears to have caused a major shift in composition and function of the macroinvertebrate assemblages.