Low State Capacity Research Articles

Sociopolitical context and COVID-19 fatality rates in OECD countries: a configurational approach

BackgroundThe effectiveness of crisis response can be influenced by various structural, cultural, and functional aspects within a social system. This study uses a configurational approach to identify combinations of sociopolitical conditions that lead to a high case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in OECD countries.MethodsA Fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is conducted on a sample of 38 OECD countries. The outcome to be explained is high COVID-19 CFR. The five potentially causal conditions are level of democracy, state capacity, trust in government, health expenditure per capita, and the median age of population. A comprehensive QCA robustness test protocol is applied, which includes sensitivity ranges, fit-oriented robustness, and case-oriented robustness tests.ResultsNone of the causal conditions in both the presence and negation form were found to be necessary for high or low levels of COVID-19 CFR. Two different combinations of sociopolitical conditions were usually sufficient for the occurrence of a high CFR of COVID-19 in OECD countries. Low state capacity and low trust in government are part of both recipes. The entire solution formula covers 84 percent of the outcome. Some countries have been identified as contradictory cases. The explanations for their COVID-19 CFR require more in-depth case studies.ConclusionsFrom a governance perspective, the weakness of government in effectively implementing policies, and the citizens’ lack of confidence in their government, combined with other structural conditions, serve as barriers to mounting an effective response to COVID-19. These findings can support the idea that the effects of social determinants of COVID-19 outcomes are interconnected and reinforcing.

Chiefs, Courts, and Upholding Property Rights: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Sierra Leone

Abstract Land disputes are unavoidable and costly to resolve in the formal courts in contexts with weak property rights and low state capacity. In order to relax the pressure on strained formal courts, many countries permit parallel informal dispute-resolution forums. This paper studies the extent to which one such forum—Chiefdom Land Committees (CLCs)—in Sierra Leone is able to resolve land disputes. This paper constructs a data set of ligated cases at local courts across the country and implements a difference-in-difference design to estimate the effect of the CLCs on land caseload in the formal courts. Contrary to the policy goals, this paper finds that on average, chiefdoms with CLCs have higher land caseload in the formal courts three years on. By adopting the CLCs, chiefdoms plausibly made land issues more salient, but, instead of providing final resolutions, CLCs are conduits for the formalization of land disputes.

Does drought exposure erode trust in the political system in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of severe droughts. As water scarcity can destroy vital resources such as crops and livestock, droughts pose major challenges to affected societies. Concerns arise that the resulting hardship and suffering could exacerbate social tensions. Trust in the political system, defined as citizens’ overall confidence in the state to deliver satisfactory outcomes, is an integral foundation of stable state-society relations. To illuminate under what conditions droughts might exert a destabilizing effect, investigating their impact on trust in the political system is paramount. Our study is the first to investigate how drought exposure influences citizens´ overall confidence in the political system. Previous research shows that citizens tend to lose trust when dissatisfied with the living conditions and output that a system provides. While droughts emerge gradually and, thus, give states multiple opportunities to intervene, states in the Global South often struggle to master the challenging task of drought management, thereby demonstrating inadequate, dissatisfactory state performance. We argue that failures in successful drought management showcase what goes wrong in a political system, which in turn leads to an erosion of trust in the political system. Using individual-level survey data from Afrobarometer round five, matched with high-resolution water scarcity data, our analysis reveals that recently drought-exposed individuals exhibit significantly lower levels of trust in the political system compared to their unaffected counterparts. This effect is most pronounced in sub-national regions with low state capacity, where the implementation of successful drought relief measures might be particularly difficult.

Anatomy of a premodern state

Abstract We provide a blueprint for constructing measures of state capacity in premodern states, offering several advantages over the current state of the art. We argue that assessing changing state capacity requires considering the composition of revenues, expenditure patterns, and local-level budgets. As an application, we examine the case of Portugal (1367–1844). Our findings demonstrate that throughout most of this extended period, Portugal maintained comparatively high fiscal and legal capacities. This challenges claims that Portugal’s economic decline from the second half of the eighteenth century was due to low state capacity.

Network power and mental health policy in post-war Liberia.

This article traces the influence of network power on mental health policy in Liberia, a low-income, post-conflict West African country. Based on key informant interviews, focus group discussions and document analysis, the work uses an inductive approach to uncover how a network of civil society groups, government officials, diasporans and international NGOs shaped the passage, implementation and revision of the country's 2009 and 2016 mental health policies. With relations rooted in ties of information, expertise, resources, commitment and personal connections, the network coalesced around a key agent, the Carter Center, which connected members and guided initiatives. Network power was evident when these actors channelled expertise, shared narratives of post-war trauma and mental health as a human right, and financial resources to influence policy. Feedback loops appeared as policy implementation created new associations of mental health clinicians and service users, research entities and training institutes. These beneficiaries offered the network information from lived experiences, while also pressing their own interests in subsequent policy revisions. As the network expanded over time, some network members gained greater autonomy from the key agent. Network power outcomes included the creation of government mental health institutions, workforce development, increased public awareness, civil society mobilization and a line for mental health in the government budget, though concerns about network overstretch and key agent commitment emerged over time. The Liberian case illustrates how networks need not be inimical to development, and how network power may facilitate action on stigmatized, unpopular issues in contexts with low state capacity. A focus on network power in health shows how power can operate not only through discrete resources such as funding but also through the totality of assets that network linkages make possible.

Remedial, institutional or radical? Explaining community responses to violence against women in an NGO programme to prevent violence in Mumbai, India

Despite ambitions in development and global health policy to transform communities into supportive environments for women facing risks of violence, our understanding of how to best engage communities remains incomplete. In particular, there is little evidence on the types of strategies that communities employ to address violence against women (VAW). We aimed to describe and analyse the processes involved in community responses to incidents of VAW in a non-governmental organisation (NGO) violence prevention programme in Mumbai, India. We conducted a grounded theory study involving 30 focus group discussions and 36 semi-structured interviews with 113 community members and 9 NGO staff, as well as over 170 h of field observation. Informed by comparative case study methods, we compared community actions across six informal settlement neighbourhoods. We found considerable variation in the type of action taken across neighbourhoods. This variation was not arbitrary, but reflected systematic cost-benefit considerations in heterogeneous environments, accounting for factors such as trust in neighbours, violent (armed or gang-related) crime, and corruption in state institutions. We found that institutional action was only favoured in neighbourhoods with strong state capacity and high social capital, whilst remedial action—resolving violence through ‘private’ talks in the family and community—and radical action involving extra-judicial violence—became favourable under conditions of weak social capital or low state capacity. Institutional action was, however, sometimes as violent as radical action, as police were reported, sometimes even relied upon, by residents to use force against perpetrators of VAW. We argue that these contextual features oblige policymakers and prevention researchers to grapple with contentious issues such as the legitimate use of force by the state. We caution against maximising community action without a clear vision of the type of action hoped for.

The long-term impact of natural disasters on human capital: Evidence from the 1975 Zhumadian flood

How do natural disasters influence human capital? Most studies examining this question have focused on the impacts of earthquakes and hurricanes, and have provided conflicting findings. This study assessed the long-term human capital cost of the flood that occurred in 1975 in Zhumadian City of China using the cohort difference-in-differences model based on census data for large numbers of individuals. The results show that the Zhumadian flood reduced the number of years of schooling for locals by 0.2 years. Analysis of the mechanism of transmission of this impact showed that the flood also led to a reduction in per-capita grain holdings, which affected the local population's access to education and caused first marriages to be delayed by 0.3 years on average to compensate for family losses. These findings imply that under the condition of low state capacity that characterized China at the time of the Zhumadian flood, natural disasters significantly reduced human capital. This study not only provides historical evidence of the long-term education cost of disasters in developing countries but also contributes to the understanding of the relationship between state capacity, disasters, and human capital.

Southern Europe Managing the First Phase of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Crucial Effect of Timing

ABSTRACT This article, which introduces a special issue, compares the record of five South European states – Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Turkey – in managing the initial phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. Southern Europe’s reputation for low state capacity, political polarisation and weak health systems all posed potential obstacles to an effective governmental response. However, despite these shared characteristics, these countries’ records in Covid management varied widely. The article investigates whether this variation can be explained by national differences in degree of preparedness, state capacities, political dynamics or societal factors. It concludes that while the degree of decentralisation played a role in the initial response, the most significant factor was the timing of the virus’ arrival in each country, resulting in different opportunities for governments to design and implement effective responses

Why democratic police reform mostly fails and sometimes succeeds: police reform and low state capacity, authoritarianism and neo-patrimonial politics (in the former Soviet Union)  

Why democratic police reform mostly fails and sometimes succeeds: police reform and low state capacity, authoritarianism and neo-patrimonial politics (in the former Soviet Union)  

Leveraging weakness into strength: how neo-patrimonial oil-producing countries survive economic crises

Most scholarship on major oil-producing countries (OPCs) focuses on their illiberal characteristics, but scant research explores how these regimes react to periodic oil price collapses, particularly neo-patrimonial OPCs with relatively low state capacity, herein termed gatekeeper OPCs. These OPCs should be extremely vulnerable to regime change during economic crises. However, since the most recent collapse in international oil markets in 2014, almost all neo-patrimonial OPCs have managed to weather the ensuing fallout, thereby begging the question of how these seemingly vulnerable regimes manage to survive extended periods of economic crises. We hypothesise that the likelihood of regime survival in neo-patrimonial OPCs depends on a strategic calibration of domestic neo-patrimonial policies, such as clientelism and executive aggrandisement, and the skilled navigation of global geopolitics. We find evidence that incumbent governments leverage international geopolitical tensions during economic crises to secure valuable foreign aid from key allies, which allows them to maintain the domestic neo-patrimonial strategies required to safeguard their power. We reached the above finding through a nested mixed-methods research design combining quantitative analysis of 35 major OPCs from 2011 to 2018 using Cox proportional hazards models with the qualitative comparison of two gatekeeper OPCs—Chad and Venezuela.

Why democratic police reform mostly fails and sometimes succeeds: police reform and low state capacity, authoritarianism and neo-patrimonial politics (in the former Soviet Union)

ABSTRACT Democratic police reform models dominate discussions on police reform in non-Western contexts. Researchers and practitioners often attribute reform failings to personnel and institutional failure within police organisations, the weakness of formal external institutions of control and accountability, lack of inclusion of, or customisation to, hybrid forms of governance or a failure to address social injustice more broadly. Drawing on analysis of political and police transformation in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Russia this paper suggests low state capacity and authoritarian and neo-patrimonial politics present more prominent barriers to DPR. In low capacity states police pay is insufficient and bureaucratic control weak. Formal reforms have little influence over the police who are influenced by organised crime and corrupt police leaders and politicians. Authoritarian and neo-patrimonial elites often stymie reform initiatives which undermine their political and economic interests. Full DPR is thus unlikely without increasing state capacity and political elite will and capacity to democratise control of the police. But contrary to democratisation being key to successful reform the relationship between regime type and reform outcomes is more nuanced. Partial reform is possible where a partially authoritarian/neo-patrimonial regime has the ability to improve police effectiveness and clampdown on corruption and prioritises these.

Mexico’s Armed Vigilante Movements (2012–2015): The Impact of Low State Capacity and Economic Inequality

ABSTRACTThis article disputes recent studies that find no relationship between homicides and vigilantism. Using a unique panel dataset that controls for time and region, this study shows that the relationship exists. The evidence is consistent with the theory of low-capacity states: high homicide rates indicate unchecked criminal enclaves that further corrode trust in police. The territorial gaps in the central state’s presence that O’Donnell once called “brown areas” cost people their lives. Vigilantes react through defensive movements in which ordinary people substitute for the police to fill a security gap. The panel results also indicate that wealth inequality matters. Business people reportedly finance the vigilante organizations, which helps them to sustain collective action over time. Together with income inequality, Mexico’s low-capacity state facilitated an armed vigilante movement between 2012 and 2015.

Quando o Estado não chega: a eficácia de programas educacionais em assentamentos, comunidades indígenas e quilombolas

ABSTRACT: The article evaluates the effective benefits of the policy to decentralize federal education resources to schools in indigenous and quilombo communities, and settlements. Based on the quantitative analysis of the Basic Education Census data, information on balance and transfer of values from the Dinheiro Direto na Escola Program, and data from the Federation of Industry of Rio de Janeiro, the article relates the volume of transferred resources, the physical structure of schools, and state capacity of the federated entities. The initial hypothesis is that historically excluded communities are in municipalities with low state capacity and greater difficulty to develop differentiated educational policies. The article also raises the hypothesis of the racialization of the State, which normalizes the precarious life of traditional populations. It concludes by calling attention to the complexity of implementing decentralized policies for these communities and the importance of including the role of the racial State in their reflections and evaluations.

Strengthening Local Governance of Secondary Forest in Peru

Natural forest regrowth is critical for restoring ecosystem services in degraded landscapes and providing forest resources. Those who control tenure and access rights to these secondary forest areas determine who benefits from economically charged off-farm opportunities such as finance for forest restoration, selling carbon credits, and receiving payment for ecosystem services. We explore multiple dimensions of secondary forest governance in Peru, where the lack of official government statistics of the extent, geography, and ownership, coupled with low state capacity, prevents the development of governance structures that could stimulate their sustainable management. In this paper, we review the challenges to secondary forest governance, and the opportunities to strengthen it, focusing on beneficial outcomes for smallholder farmers. We characterize secondary forest types, extent, and persistence in Peru, followed by a presentation of the social dimensions of their governance. We identify four entry points for government to take action: national mapping of the socio-geography of second growth forest, regularize the property rights of untitled landholders, relax forest regulations, and provide incentives, not sanctions, for secondary forest management. Overall, we recommend folding secondary forest governance into a landscape approach. In Peru, strengthening local forest governance could help to drive benefits of climate change mitigation incentives directly to local forest stewards.

Leveraging low state capacity for economic development: a case study of Tajik–Afghan cross-border markets

ABSTRACT Discussions about state capacity and special economic zones (SEZs) arise in disparate academic circles, despite the fact that they both often address the relative level of state intervention in economic activity. Can the economic limitations of low state capacity be mitigated by the benefits of an SEZ? Drawing from interviews with non-governmental organization workers, bureaucrats and traders in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) region of Tajikistan, this paper presents the case of the Tajik–Afghan cross-border free-trade markets as an example of a popular SEZ in a region marked by enduring diminished administrative state capacity. Highlighting the use of the administrative capacity of non-state actors, and its periodically contentious intersection with state coercive capacity, this paper illustrates the novel creation of SEZs to facilitate economic growth in contexts of enduring low administrative state capacity.

Symptoms of PTSD and Depression among Central American Immigrant Youth

The aim of this paper is to explore the mental health challenges that Central American immigrant youth face before and after arriving in the United States. This population is hard to reach, marginalized, and disproportionately exposed to trauma from a young age. This paper investigates the mental health stressors experienced by Central American immigrant youth and asylum seekers, including unaccompanied minors, surveyed in the U.S. in 2017. This mixed methods study uses qualitative data from interviews along with close-ended questions and the validated PHQ-8 Questionnaire and the Child PTSD Symptom Scale (CPSS). These new migrants face numerous challenges to mental health, increased psychopathological risk exacerbated by high levels of violence and low state-capacity in their countries of origin, restrictive immigration policies, the fear of deportation for themselves and their family members, and the pressure to integrate once in the U.S. We find that Central American youth have seen improvements in their self-reported mental health after migrating to the U.S., but remain at risk of further trauma exposure, depression, and PTSD. We find that they exhibit a disproportionate likelihood of having lived through traumatizing experiences that put them at higher risk for psychological distress and disorders that may create obstacles to integration. These can, in turn, create new stressors that exacerbate PTSD, depression, and anxiety. These conditions can be minimized through programs that aid immigrant integration and mental health.

Social Protection and State–Society Relations in Environments of Low and Uneven State Capacity

Grounded in social-contractual ideas about relationships between the governed and those who govern, the provision of social benefits to citizens has historically been predicated on expectations of acquiescence to state authority. However, the rapid expansion of noncontributory social assistance in sub-Saharan Africa, often supported by global donors through technical assistance programs, raises myriad questions about the relationship between social protection and the social contract in fragile and low-capacity contexts. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, but drawing on the theoretical and empirical literature on social protection from around the world, this review parses out the redistributive, contractual, and reconstitutive effects of social protection programming on citizen–state relations. We argue that program features—including targeting, conditionality, accountability mechanisms, bureaucratic reach, and the nature and visibility of state–nonstate partnerships—interact dialectically with existing state–society relationships to engender different social contract outcomes for differently situated populations.

Imams and Businessmen: Islamist Service Provision in Turkey

Islamists have a reputation for winning over citizen support through service delivery. This reflects a worldwide trend in the use of service provision by non-state actors to gain political support. Existing works attribute the notable local-level variation in such provision to strategic choice or low state capacity. Focusing on the Gulen Movement, the largest Islamist group in contemporary Turkey, we find no evidence that state weakness increases Islamist service provision. Rather we show that service allocation is highly dependent on a group’s ability to marshal local resources, specifically through the associational mobilization of local business elites. For our inferences, we exploit spatial variation in Islamist service delivery across Turkey’s 970 districts and use data on the Erdo˘gan government’s purge of thousands of non-state education institutions and bureaucrats, along with original data on business associations, endowments, public service infrastructure, and early Republican associations.

Controlling Corruption in Development Aid: New Evidence from Contract-Level Data

Following scandals about corruption in foreign aid, and in a political climate that increasingly questions the legitimacy of development assistance, donors are under pressure to better control how their funds are spent. However, there is little evidence on precisely how to control corruption in development aid. This article assesses under which conditions donor regulations are successful in controlling corruption in aid spent by national governments through procurement tenders. The article analyses data on donor-funded procurement contracts in 100+ countries in 1998–2008 and uses ‘single bid submitted in a competitive tender’ as a corruption risk indicator. Applying a contract-level propensity score matching and regression analysis, it finds that an intervention which increases donor oversight and widens access to tenders is effective in reducing corruption risks: lowering single bidding on competitive markets by 3.6–4.3 percentage points. This effect is greater in countries with low-state capacity.

Roads to Rule, Roads to Rebel: Relational State Capacity and Conflict in Africa

Weak state capacity is one of the most important explanations of civil conflict. Yet, current conceptualizations of state capacity typically focus only on the state while ignoring the relational nature of armed conflict. We argue that opportunities for conflict arise where relational state capacity is low, that is, where the state has less control over its subjects than its potential challengers. This occurs in ethnic groups that are poorly accessible from the state capital, but are internally highly interconnected. To test this argument, we digitize detailed African road maps and convert them into a road atlas akin to Google Maps. We measure the accessibility and internal connectedness of groups via travel times obtained from this atlas and simulate road networks for an instrumental variable design. Our findings suggest that low relational state capacity increases the risk of armed conflict in Africa.