Low Ocean Resolution Research Articles

Simulation and Prediction of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model*

Abstract A new high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model [the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR)] has been developed and used to investigate potential skill in simulation and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. HiFLOR comprises high-resolution (~25-km mesh) atmosphere and land components and a more moderate-resolution (~100-km mesh) sea ice and ocean component. HiFLOR was developed from FLOR by decreasing the horizontal grid spacing of the atmospheric component from 50 to 25 km, while leaving most of the subgrid-scale physical parameterizations unchanged. Compared with FLOR, HiFLOR yields a more realistic simulation of the structure, global distribution, and seasonal and interannual variations of TCs, as well as a comparable simulation of storm-induced cold wakes and TC-genesis modulation induced by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Moreover, HiFLOR is able to simulate and predict extremely intense TCs (Saffir–Simpson hurricane categories 4 and 5) and their interannual variations, which represents the first time a global coupled model has been able to simulate such extremely intense TCs in a multicentury simulation, sea surface temperature restoring simulations, and retrospective seasonal predictions.

The Seasonality of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and ENSO Relationship

Abstract This study investigates the seasonality of the relationship between the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) and the Pacific Ocean from spring to summer, using observational analysis and coupled model experiments. The observed GPLLJ and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relation undergoes seasonal changes with a stronger GPLLJ associated with La Niña in boreal spring and El Niño in boreal summer. The ability of the GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) global coupled climate model, which has the high-resolution atmospheric and land components, to simulate the observed seasonality in the GPLLJ–ENSO relationship is assessed. The importance of simulating the magnitude and phase locking of ENSO accurately in order to better simulate its seasonal teleconnections with the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) is demonstrated. This study explores the mechanisms for seasonal changes in the GPLLJ–ENSO relation in model and observations. It is hypothesized that ENSO affects the GPLLJ variability through the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) during the summer and spring seasons. These results suggest that climate models with improved ENSO variability would advance our ability to simulate and predict seasonal variations of the GPLLJ and their associated impacts on the United States.

Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent

AbstractWe present seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the 1982–2013 period using two suites of retrospective forecasts initialized from a fully coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐sea ice assimilation system. High skill scores are found in predicting year‐to‐year fluctuations of Arctic SIE, with significant correlations up to 7 month ahead for September detrended anomalies. Predictions over the recent era, which coincides with an improved observational coverage, outperform the earlier period for most target months. We find, however, a degradation of skill in September during the last decade, a period of sea ice thinning in observations. The two prediction models, Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) and Forecast‐oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR), share very similar ocean and ice component and initialization but differ by their atmospheric component. FLOR has improved climatological atmospheric circulation and sea ice mean state, but its skill is overall similar to CM2.1 for most seasons, which suggests a key role for initial conditions in predicting seasonal SIE fluctuations.

Bottom-Enhanced Diapycnal Mixing Driven by Mesoscale Eddies: Sensitivity to Wind Energy Supply

Abstract It has been estimated that much of the wind energy input to the ocean general circulation is removed by mesoscale eddies via baroclinic instability. While the fate of this energy remains a subject of research, arguments have been presented suggesting that a fraction of it may get transferred to lee waves that, upon breaking, result in bottom-enhanced diapycnal mixing. Here the authors propose several parameterizations of this process and explore their impact in a low-resolution ocean–climate model, focusing on their impact on the abyssal meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of Antarctic Bottom Water. This study shows that, when the eddy energy is allowed to maintain diapycnal mixing, the abyssal MOC generally intensifies with increasing wind energy input to the ocean. In such a case, the whole system is driven by the wind: wind steepens isopycnals and generates eddies, and the (parameterized) eddies generate small-scale mixing, driving the MOC. It is also demonstrated that if the model diapycnal diffusivity, eddy transfer coefficient, and surface climate are decoupled from the winds, then stronger wind stress in the Southern Ocean may lead to a weaker MOC in the abyss—in line with previous results. A simple scaling theory, describing the response of the abyssal MOC strength to wind energy input, is developed, providing a better insight on the numerical results.

Impact of uncertainties in the horizontal density gradient upon low resolution global ocean modelling

In this study, it is shown (i) that, as a result of the nonlinearity of the seawater equation of state, unresolved scales represent a major source of uncertainties in the computation of the large-scale horizontal density gradient from the large-scale temperature and salinity fields, and (ii) that the effect of these uncertainties can be simulated using random processes to represent unresolved temperature and salinity fluctuations. The results of experiments performed with a low resolution global ocean model show that this parameterization has a considerable effect on the average large-scale circulation of the ocean, especially in the regions of intense mesoscale activity. The large-scale flow is less geostrophic, with more intense associated vertical velocities, and the average geographical position of the main temperature and salinity fronts is more consistent with observations. In particular, the simulations suggest that the stochastic effect of the unresolved temperature and salinity fluctuations on the large-scale density field may be sufficient to explain why the Gulf Stream pathway systematically overshoots in non-stochastic low resolution ocean models.

Simulation of drifting seaweeds in East China Sea

Drifting seaweeds plays a major role in areas where they are present. We describe a computer model, JeoSim that clarifies the roles of those seaweeds in relation to their transport using particle-tracking algorithm. The Euler rule with trapezoidal approximation, used to calculate drifting paths, is implemented in JeoSim in discrete events fashion in order to simulate the path and movement of seaweeds. Pre-processing of the ocean currents is done with the Princeton Ocean circulation Model (POM). Simulated current constitutes the data that provides force and directions for the calculations of drifting paths. Along with the implementation of the particle-tracking algorithm in discrete event fashion, the originality of the JeoSim software lies in its Object Oriented architecture which makes it especially suited to perform simulation of living, cross scale systems with complex behavior. Behavior of drifting seaweeds of the Sargasso family has been implemented in JeoSim, and experimented in East China Sea following a drifting seaweed collection campaign in May 2002. Despite a relatively low resolution ocean currents data, simulated results compare well with the observed distribution.

Response of the Atlantic overturning circulation to South Atlantic sources of buoyancy

The heat and salt input from the Indian to Atlantic Oceans by Agulhas Leakage is found to influence the Atlantic overturning circulation in a low-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). The model used is the Hamburg Large-Scale Geostrophic (LSG) model, which is forced by mixed boundary conditions. Agulhas Leakage is parameterized by sources of heat and salt in the upper South Atlantic Ocean, which extend well into the intermediate layers. It is shown that the model's overturning circulation is sensitive to the applied sources of heat and salt. The response of the overturning strength to changes in the source amplitudes is mainly linear, interrupted once by a stepwise change. The South Atlantic buoyancy sources influence the Atlantic overturning strength by modifying the basin-scale meridional density and pressure gradients. The non-linear, stepwise response is caused by abrupt changes in the convective activity in the northern North Atlantic. Two additional experiments illustrate the adjustment of the overturning circulation upon sudden introduction of heat and salt sources in the South Atlantic. The North Atlantic overturning circulation responds within a few years after the sources are switched on. This is the time it takes for barotropic and baroclinic Kelvin waves to reach the northern North Atlantic in this model. The advection of the anomalies takes three decades to reach the northern North Atlantic. The model results give support to the hypothesis that the re-opening of the Agulhas Gap at the end of the last ice-age, as indicated by palaeoclimatological data, may have stimulated the coincident strengthening of the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Principles for capturing the upstream effects of deep sills in low resolution ocean models

Principles for incorporating the upstream effects of deep sills into numerical ocean circulation models using nonlinear analytical hydraulic models are discussed within the context of reduced gravity flow. A method is developed allowing the upstream influence of a numerically unresolvable deep sill or width contraction to be reproduced. The method consists of placing an artificial boundary in the numerical model's overflowing layer at some distance upstream of the actual sill or width contraction of the deep strait. Given the model state at time t, the dependent flow variables are then predicted at the artificial boundary at time t + Δt by using the method of characteristics in combination with quasi-steady hydraulic laws. The calculation requires the use of Riemann invariants and examples are given for a simple nonrotating flow and for rotating channel flow with uniform potential vorticity. The computation is considerably simplified by linearizing the relevant equations in the vicinity of the artificial boundary, resulting in a linear wave reflection problem. The reflection coefficients for the two cases are calculated and these can be used directly to numerically satisfy the boundary condition in a straightforward way.