Low Agricultural Productivity Research Articles

Determinants of food security in Nigeria: Empirical evidence from beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries rice farmers of the Kano River Irrigation Project

IntroductionWhile the prevalence of hunger decreased globally, it has risen in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years mainly due to rapid population growth, low agricultural productivity, and economic downturns. This study was conducted to examine food security determinants at the household levels among the beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries rice farmers of the Kano river irrigation project in Nigeria.MethodsCross-sectional data were used for the analysis while multi-stage sampling technique was used to obtain data from 382 respondents, out of which 217 were project beneficiaries and 165 non-beneficiaries; using a semi-structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using Household food security index and Logit regression model.Results and discussionThe results showed that 72.6% of the beneficiaries' households were food secure, against the non-beneficiaries, who had 65.4% food secure households. The findings also revealed that the beneficiaries have 11 and 4% food insecurity depth and severity respectively. Non-beneficiaries, on the other hand, had 17 and 8% food insecurity depth and severity, respectively. Extension contact, farm size, rice output, and educational attainment were the positive determinants of food security. Similarly, determinants that could increase food insecurity identified were; credit constraints and household size. It is recommended that the design of a food security strategy should be multi-dimensional and should encompass social, institutional and economic transformation of small scale farmers. Addressing the identified determinants is also crucial for enhancing the food security status in the study area.

Causes, Effects and Potential Health Risk of Gully Erosion Menace in Calabar Municipal: Residence Perspective

Purpose: The present study sought to investigate the potential health risk associated with gully erosion in addition to environment effect which is commonly investigated upon by researchers. The prevalence of gullies in Calabar Municipal was also a unique factor in this study.
 Methodology: Data were gathered from both primary and secondary sources. The main instrument for gathering primary data was the questionnaire design by the researcher and validated with a reliability coefficient of .76. Descriptive statistics of mean, and graphs were used to answer the research questions while the hypotheses were tested using dependent t-test at .05 level of significant.
 Findings: The findings revealed that human activities such as farming, intensive and short-period rainfall, improper land use, improper irrigation design, improper discharge of water in the channels¸ soil characteristics where the cause of gully erosion in the study area; while open grassing was not part of the cause of gully erosion in the study area. it was further discovered that effect of gully erosion included, Loss of farmland, threat to vegetations and biodiversity, loss of properties, increase poverty and famine, expansion of degraded land, increase surface runoff, low agricultural production, environmental destruction with significant health implication p<.00<.05.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study concluded that there is need for adequate funding, committed political will (not lip-service) and well-articulated sustainable policies are required in other to solve the problems of gully erosion in Calabar municipal.

Trends and Causes of Internal Migration: A Case Study of Ilam Municipality, Nepal

This research work attempts to portray the increasing rate of migration in a particular area of Ilam Municipality. It focuses on the trends and causes of the internal migration in Ilam Municipality of Nepal from different parts of the country which is growing rapidly. It has faced so many challenges of overpopulation. It is considered as the civic duty to solve the existing problem of migration on time otherwise it results into a worsening condition. The appropriate ways for analyzing the causes of migration can be discussed in references with push and pull factors. The main push factor for migration is lack of employment opportunities, education, health and transportation facilities, low agricultural productivity, natural calamities, business failure, transfer of service, and land sold in the place of origin. Similarly, educational facilities, physical facilities, business opportunities, purchase of land, security, presence of relatives, and marriage are the main attractive factors for Internal Migration within Ilam municipality. The major consequences of Internal Migration appear as both in positive and negative aspects in the destination, origin as well. Some of the positive aspects of migration in the Ilam municipality have a good income from the agricultural product, an increase in business activities, sharing of culture, and feelings of cooperation. In terms of negative aspects of migration in the municipality are deforestation, over consumption of resources, pollution, fragmentation of land, and an increase in criminal or immoral activities.

Assessment of physico-chemical properties of soil in selected areas of Khambhat taluka, Gujarat

The present study was carried out in Khambhat, Gujarat, to study the different soil properties affected by salinity. The effects of soil salinity comprise low agricultural productivity, low economic returns, soil erosion or desertification. The assessment of this type soil is important to adopt appropriate management practices for reducing salinity from the soil. Soil samples were collected seasonally from different villages of Khambhat taluka. Soil samples were assessed for the physico-chemical parameters such as moisture content, pH, electric conductivity (EC), water holding capacity (WHC), soil texture, organic carbon (OC), organic matter (OM),nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and micronutrients such as Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn. As observed in the results of pH (9.88), EC (9.45 dSm-1) and sodium (8565.15 µgkg-1) which is found higher in winter season. The available potassium, magnesium and calcium ranged from 315.17-1567 kgha-1, 1207.56-3120.37 mgkg-1 and 2346-4567.65 mgkg-1, respectively. The concentrations of micro-nutrients (Cu, Zn & Fe) were lower or limited in the soils of Khambhat taluka. Seasonal variations in soil properties are also important for future work. This present study helps to identify the soil nutrient availability and limiting factors for the crop production in these villages of Khambhat.

ASSESSMENT OF THE AGRO-INPUT SUPPLY SECTOR IN KOGI STATE, NIGERIA

Most farmers are experiencing challenges and constraints in accessing agricultural inputs, thus leading to poor and underutilization of agro inputs and consequently low agricultural productivity in most part of sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed the agro-input supply sector in Kogi state. A total of 157 input dealers were randomly selected across the twenty-one local government areas in the state. Data were collected using well-structured questionnaire complemented with interview schedule and were analyzed using simple descriptive statistics. Findings reveal that agro-chemicals, fertilizer and feed were the major inputs supplied by most of the retailers and wholesalers that hardly engage in activities that create awareness about their products. Input prices were the most important preference and consideration factor in the purchase of agro-input by customers and form the basis for competition. Casual, family and child labours that proved to be cheaper, commonly accessible and do not require signing of formal employment contract with workers dominated both the retail and wholesale sectors. Poor government support, poor business condition in addition to poor capital base, high transportation cost, price fluctuations, adulteration were the identified major constraints affecting the agripreneurs. The study recommends capacity development on new marketing strategies, registration of businesses with relevant agencies, provision of credit and financial services; formation of formidable, strong and mutual-trust co-operative societies for input supply actors so as to enhance efficiency and effectiveness of the agricultural inputs supply sector in the state.

Credit risk management in small-scale farming by formal financial institutions during the COVID-19 era: Nigerian perspective

PurposeProviding loans, particularly to small-scale farmers, is one of the roles of formal financial institutions. Lending to small farmers is risky. An institution's health is closely related to the institution's ability to manage credit and portfolio risk. Expanding smallholder farmers' access to finance while maintaining a sustainable financial system is essential; however, pandemics present additional challenges. Accordingly, as reported in the literature, the pandemic's high loan default rates and decreases in return on assets (ROAs) call for further credit risk management research. There have been limited studies on credit risk management during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), so this article aims to provide useful information on its influences.Design/methodology/approachResearchers used data from formal financial institutions in 2018 (before COVID-19) and in 2021 (during COVID-19) to accomplish the study's broad objective. Descriptive and inferential statistics were the main analytical tools. The credit risk management indicators were categorized into collateral management, loan management, loan recovery management, governance and Information and Communication Technology (ICT). Weights were assigned to each category based on the importance to credit risk management. A binary logit model was employed in assessing the factors influencing credit risk management as proxied to loan repayment, while Ordinary Least Square (OLS) was used to examine factors that influence ROAs.FindingsOne of the most noteworthy findings is that credit risk management is affected by different factors and magnitudes before and during the COVID-19 era. Loan recovery and ICT management indicators were most influential during the pandemic. In addition, the study noted that low agricultural productivity during the pandemic contributed to an additional challenge in loan default rates because of various COVID-19-containing measures. Additionally, there was a lack of governance and ICT management capacity to drive credit and portfolio risk management during the epidemic.Originality/valueThe paper presents new empirical findings on credit risk management during the COVID-19 era. The study used a methodology which has not been used previously in credit risk management in Nigerian financial institutions. Therefore, this research could become the cornerstone of further academic research in other developing countries using this methodology.

Chromium toxicity, speciation, and remediation strategies in soil-plant interface: A critical review.

In recent decades, environmental pollution with chromium (Cr) has gained significant attention. Although chromium (Cr) can exist in a variety of different oxidation states and is a polyvalent element, only trivalent chromium [Cr(III)] and hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] are found frequently in the natural environment. In the current review, we summarize the biogeochemical procedures that regulate Cr(VI) mobilization, accumulation, bioavailability, toxicity in soils, and probable risks to ecosystem are also highlighted. Plants growing in Cr(VI)-contaminated soils show reduced growth and development with lower agricultural production and quality. Furthermore, Cr(VI) exposure causes oxidative stress due to the production of free radicals which modifies plant morpho-physiological and biochemical processes at tissue and cellular levels. However, plants may develop extensive cellular and physiological defensive mechanisms in response to Cr(VI) toxicity to ensure their survival. To cope with Cr(VI) toxicity, plants either avoid absorbing Cr(VI) from the soil or turn on the detoxifying mechanism, which involves producing antioxidants (both enzymatic and non-enzymatic) for scavenging of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Moreover, this review also highlights recent knowledge of remediation approaches i.e., bioremediation/phytoremediation, or remediation by using microbes exogenous use of organic amendments (biochar, manure, and compost), and nano-remediation supplements, which significantly remediate Cr(VI)-contaminated soil/water and lessen possible health and environmental challenges. Future research needs and knowledge gaps are also covered. The review's observations should aid in the development of creative and useful methods for limiting Cr(VI) bioavailability, toxicity and sustainably managing Cr(VI)-polluted soils/water, by clear understanding of mechanistic basis of Cr(VI) toxicity, signaling pathways, and tolerance mechanisms; hence reducing its hazards to the environment.

Rural roads, agricultural extension, and productivity

Low agricultural productivity is a persistent challenge for developing economies. Expansions of rural roads and agricultural extension, separately, have been proposed as solutions with mixed effectiveness. In this paper, I show that it is critical to consider roads and extension together due to their strong complementarities. I study the concurrent but independent expansions of rural roads and extension in Ethiopia, and find that, while ineffective in isolation, access to both a road and extension increases productivity by 6%. The key mechanisms include increased take up of advice, adoption of modern inputs, and advantageous shifts in crop choice and labor allocation.

A Review on the Water Dimensions, Security, and Governance for Two Distinct Regions

Non-arid region countries, including Canada, enjoy abundant water resources, while arid countries such as Qatar struggle to meet their water needs. However, climate change threats to water resources are similar for both climatic regions. Therefore, this article discusses water dimensions, security, and governance for these different regions, i.e., non-arid Canada and arid Qatar, that distinctly respond to their water-related challenges. Limitations of the article include lesser water-related literature availability for Qatar than for Canada. Canada’s water resources appear vulnerable to climate change as it is projected to face >0.6 °C above the global average of 1.6 °C for the 20th-century temperature. Qatar is extremely vulnerable to dust storms, and rising sea levels, with the maximum temperature approaching 50 °C during the summer, and flooding during the winter. The sustainable use of water resources needs to address social, economic, political, climate change, and environmental dimensions of water. Other than climate change impacts and high per capita consumption of water, Qatar faces challenges of a rise in population (~29 million as of now), acute shortage of freshwater from rainfall (~80 mm per annum), high evapotranspiration (~95% of the total rainfall), depletion of groundwater, and low agricultural productivity due to infertile lands and water scarcity, all leading to food insecurity. The sustainable use of water resources requires improved regulations for water governance and management. Comparisons of water sustainability issues, dimensions, security, and governance facilitate discussions to improve water governance structures for resource sustainability, food security, and climate change adaptability, and show how one country could learn from the experiences of the other.

Carbon emissions, climate change, and Nigeria's agricultural productivity

This paper examined the impact of climate change through the carbon emissions channel on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. It adopted the transposed second-generation environmental Kuznets curve model, which defined growth (agricultural productivity) as a function of climate change. Data from world development indicators between 1960 and 2019 were utilized to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. The paper employed the bound test (ARDL) method. The result showed the existence of a long-run relationship between carbon emissions (proxy by CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and CO<sub>2</sub> intensity) and agricultural productivity (proxy by Agric.GDP, crop production index, and food production index) in Nigeria. The speed of adjustments is between 34% and 80%. Thus, a change in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and intensity affects Agric.GDP differently, but CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and intensity negatively impacted crop and food production in Nigeria. The result implies that carbon emissions and carbon intensity cause decline and generates a dampening threat to Nigeria’s agricultural productivity through physical risk channels. By extension, the study concludes that carbon emission causes climate vulnerability that affects agricultural yields, production, and productivity. Carbon emissions results in low agricultural productivity which in turn disrupt food security as well as distort the poverty reduction strategy in the country. This study, therefore, recommends an equitable implementation of carbon pricing, adoption of mitigation policies, promotion of effective and efficient environmental laws, and the implementation of an appropriate abatement policy that jointly optimizes environmental stability and growth targets of the sustainable development goals.

It’s time for reimagining the future of food security in sub–Saharan Africa: Gender-Smallholder Agriculture-Climate Change nexus

There is an ongoing debate regarding how to feed Sub-Saharan Africa's fast rising population in the long run, as well as the implications for food security. To maintain food security, various strategies have been recommended, including a focus on the significance of diversifying and improving people's diets. Proposals have been tabled elsewhere with a primary focus on enhancing agricultural inputs and technology adoption in order to increase agricultural production and productivity, hence strengthening food security. The current opinion piece attempts to contribute to this debate by examining smallholder agriculture and its role to African food security. This discussion proposes a future paradigm shift toward a gendered climate-smart smallholder agriculture and food production and security conceptual framework based on the promotion and development of smallholder agriculture and food production and security. Therefore, it's predicated that the micro-livestock-centered approach can remodel smallholder agrarian households and communities toward a gender-inclusive global climate change adaptive smallholder agriculture to strengthen production, supply, and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. For Africa, today’s predicament is to ensure food security for the anticipated rapid population expansion, while on the other hand handling an overall net adverse effect of worldwide global climate change, and increased socio-economic ills associated with gender inequality in smallholder agriculture and ensuring long-term agriculture sustainable development. The failure to address gender inequality in smallholder agriculture and food production and pontificate of global climate change effect has thrown Sub-Saharan Africa into a state of perpetual food scarcity and insecurity because of low agricultural productivity and food supply, and by force of circumstances exposing the agricultural communities and its people to extreme poverty and nutrition and food insecurity. Therefore, it's predicated that the micro-livestock-centered approach can remodel smallholder agrarian households and communities toward a gender-inclusive global climate change adaptive smallholder agriculture to strengthen production, supply, and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. For this purpose, this discussion proposes a future paradigm shift towards a gendered climate-smart smallholder agriculture and food production and security conceptual framework hinged on the promotion and development of the micro-livestock and/or unconventional animal species sub-sector to strengthen food security on the continent. Overall, the discussion emphasizes the importance of taking immediate action to alleviate the negative effects of climate change and address gender inequality through promotion of micro livestock to assist in the development of long-term adaptation measures to maintain smallholder agricultural productivity.

Unlocking the Land Capability and Soil Suitability of Makuleke Farm for Sustainable Banana Production

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing an increase in food insecurity, which is fueled by both high population growth and low agricultural productivity. Smallholder farmers are seriously affected by low soil fertility, land degradation, and poor agronomic management practices that reduce crop productivity. Therefore, there is a huge need for reliable soil information to support agricultural decision-making in smallholder farms to ensure sustainable agricultural production. However, most studies focused on land capability and soil suitability do not consider the spatial variability of soils and their inherent properties. The main objectives of this study were (1) to survey, classify and characterise soils at Makuleke farm in order to derive and map the land capability classes and (2) to quantify the physical and chemical properties of the soils in order to derive and map the suitability classes. A field survey and classification of soils led by transect walks complemented by auger holes revealed existential spatial variation of soils across the 12 ha banana plantation. The dominating soil forms in the plantation were Hutton, Westleigh, Glenrosa and Valsrivier. Land capability analysis revealed that 17% of the 12 ha portion of the farm had very high arable potential, while 60% had medium arable potential, 6% of the farm had low arable potential and 17% was considered non-arable. Subsequent soil suitability analysis revealed that 12% of the farm is highly suitable, 34% is moderately suitable, 38% is marginally suitable and 16% is permanently not suitable for banana production. The variable capability of the land and suitability of soils for banana production led to notable yield gaps. The in-depth description and quantification of the productive capacity of the land is pivotal to the farmers at Makuleke farm as it unlocks their true potential and such information is crucial to effectively manage the soil and utilize the land for sustainable banana production.

Agricultural Productivity, Efficiency, and Rural Poverty in Irrigated Pakistan: A Stochastic Production Frontier Analysis

The main objective of this study is to estimate the input elasticities of production for poor and non-poor farms. The study estimates the stochastic frontier production function. The results show that the elasticities of production differ for poor and non-poor farms. The production elasticity of land is substantially higher on rich farms as compared to the farms belonging to poor farmers. This implies higher returns on investment on land by the rich farmers. The salinity/sodicity problem and the tail-end location of the plot adversely affect farm productivity and efficiency, particularly at the poor farms. Moreover, the average cost of the existence of technical inefficiencies is about 43 percent in terms of loss in output, with wide variations across farms ranging from 17 percent to 62 percent. The study further concludes that the least efficient group is not only operating far below the frontier but it also operates at the lower portion of the production frontier. Consequently, increasing access to the inputs would likely raise productivity and reduce poverty. The results imply that the land distribution using the notion of land reforms in favour of poor/small farmers in the presence of existing farm structure, rural infrastructure, and the weak farm-supporting institutions is not expected to raise farm productivity and reduce poverty among the poor farmers. The results call for a strong and active role of the government in close partnership with the private sector to initiate income-generating activities and inputs supply chains in the rural areas to break the nexus of poverty, land degradation, and low agricultural productivity.

Economic Efficiency of Climate Smart Agriculture Technology: Case of Agrophotovoltaics

Climate change must be the most serious environmental crisis of the present human generation. While corresponding climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices are emerging, the extent to which CSA is profitable to farmers is unclear. In this paper, we focus on agrophotovoltaics (APV), one of the CSA policies intensively pursued by the Korean government, to analyze the profitability of APV and its implications for rural sustainability. First, we consider the total profit of farms before and after APV installation by a region through generalized least squares (GLS) to verify that APV has overall profitability through the region. Additionally, we estimate farms’ productivity by region with a generalized method of moments (GMM) to compare with the results of the profitability. We predict that APV installation will be more profitable than not installing, and the regions with lower productivity will show higher profitability than other regions. The results are in line with the prediction. The profitability of APV is verified in all regions, and the order of profitability by region and productivity by region are opposite to each other. It suggests that regions with lower productivity may have a higher preference for installing APV, implying the installation of APV provides a new incentive to continue farming even in regions with low agricultural productivity. These results have an important policy implication on rural sustainability since the implementation of CSA could generate a sound and sustainable farming environment by addressing the challenges of climate change.

Is There Any Role of Technological Inputs? A District-wise Analysis of Output Differential in Crop Sector

The idea of inclusive growth has emerged over time that highlighted systematically excluded segments of society from enjoying the benefits of growth on the basis of religion, ethnicity or location. In Pakistan, districts-wise allocation and usage of technological inputs is the outcome of growth and the important contributing elements as well to enhance specifically crop sector output under the advancement in growth prospective. It is reported that crop sector output contributes around 40 percent of the total agricultural GDP,1 where 2/3rd belongs to Punjab.2 The introduction of advance technological inputs provides an opportunity to enhance production potentials of crop sector in different provinces and their respective districts because Pakistan is also facing the problem of low agricultural productivity in comparison to many developed and developing countries of the world.3 Secondly, the expansion of opportunities to enhance economic freedom in long run has been considered an important issue that needs to be addressed in inclusive growth process. Hence, understanding the interrelationship among different farm related inputs effecting crop sector would help to measure (i) the impact of increased total traditional and technological inputs; (ii) contributive aspects of both types of technological inputs; machine and bio-chemical; and (iii) districtwise differential especially considering their resource endowments and availability.

Corrupt Clubs and the Convergence Hypothesis

Convergence is defined as the decreasing gap of GDP growth rates between leading and lagging countries. This thesis is based on the Veblen’s idea of “Advantages of Backwardness”. It states that a less developed country tends to grow, at a rate which is inversely proportional to its initial GDP per capita; that is, faster than more advanced countries. There are several reasons for this convergence across different countries. First, there is a scope for poor nations to absorb existing technology and to catch up advanced countries if the gap between country’s technologies is larger. Second, the development process is often characterised by a shift of resources from low productivity agriculture sector to high productivity industrial sector. The process certainly benefits more the poor nations because the capacity for such shift is more in poor countries than in rich countries.1

PENGARUH PEMBANGUNAN INFRASTRUKTUR JALAN TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS PERTANIAN DI KABUPATEN MANGGARAI BARAT

Indonesia's infrastructure development through the road construction program. This study uses panel data, the number of observations in this study is 192 observation points. The data used is secondary data with data collection methods, namely non-participant observation. The data collected was then analyzed using panel data regression analysis techniques. The results of the research on the effect of the construction of hotmix road infrastructure, asphalt road infrastructure, gravel road infrastructure, dirt road infrastructure, good road infrastructure, medium road infrastructure, damaged road infrastructure, and heavily damaged road infrastructure on agricultural productivity in West Manggarai Regency show a relationship or no effect. The period of leadership that influenced the high and low agricultural productivity in West Manggarai Regency.
 Keywords: Road Infrastructure, Road Infrastructure According Conditions, Harvested Area, Food Production Results, Agricultural Productivity
 

Challenges Facing Leaders in Transforming Small-Scale Irrigation Farming in Usa River Ward, Arumeru District, Northern Tanzania

The low agricultural productivity of key crops and food insecurity continue to be a problem in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Tanzania in particular. The growing population and climate change further increase the food shortage. Irrigation has been strategized to reduce poverty and food insecurity, and improve the livelihoods of communities in African countries, and in particular Tanzania. Transformational leadership for small-scale irrigation is urgently needed to attain the planned agenda for irrigation schemes. This study assessed the challenges of leadership in leading and transforming small-scale irrigation schemes. The questionnaires were distributed to leaders of the agriculture sector in four strata (agriculture extension officer (25), AMCOS leaders (6), agriculture engineers (2), irrigation committee (9)) with a total of 42 leaders as participants. A total of 118 farmers were interviewed from four irrigation canals (Ngollo (32), Ngarasero I (32), Ngarasero II (33), and Abisinia (21)) in the Usa River ward. The study found that the challenges of leaders in leading the transformation of small-scale farming for success were commitment of leaders, market chain, pest control mechanisms, irrigation extension service, planning, technological transformation and adoption, mobilization of farmers and professionals, monitoring and evaluation, knowledge of irrigation, and agro-input supply. This study shows that leaders’ transformation skills can play a great role in poverty reduction in small-scale irrigation in the Usa River ward. Therefore, leaders in the study area should play the role of transformational leadership effectively in managing small-scale irrigation by practicing a participatory approach to farmers problem-solving.

Deindustrialization and the incidence of poverty: Empirical evidence from developing countries

Poverty has been an important impediment to development in developing countries, and its eradication is a common human mission. Although the literature has extensively analyzed the determinants of poverty in developing countries, little attention has been paid to the impact of deindustrialization. Based on this, this paper collects cross-country panel data for 44 developing countries from 1990 to 2018 and systematically examines the effects and mechanisms of deindustrialization on the incidence of poverty based on a fixed-effects model, and then identifies the hindering factors and causes of deindustrialization in the process of poverty reduction in developing countries. The empirical results show that deindustrialization increases poverty in developing countries, and a 1 % increase in the share of services relative to manufacturing in developing countries is associated with a 0.417 % increase in the incidence of poverty, all else being equal, and its effect is stable, even after accounting for endogeneity. Mechanistic analysis suggests that deindustrialization exacerbates poverty through three channels: depressed economic growth, lower quality of employment, and loss of traditional manufacturing jobs. Further research finds that the effect of deindustrialization on poverty is more pronounced in countries that are likely to have premature deindustrialization, and that lower agricultural productivity and labor migration across gradients are important causes of premature deindustrialization in developing countries. Therefore, low middle income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, need to focus on guarding against a possible increase in the proportion of the population living in poverty due to shrinking manufacturing.

Unraveling Trade‐Offs Among Reforestation, Urbanization, and Food Security in the South China Karst Region: How Can a Hinterland Province Achieve SDGs?

AbstractWhether the world can achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) largely depends on the ability of less‐developed areas to cope with multiple socio‐economic changes. The challenges that hinterland areas would face during the realization of SDGs has not yet received enough attentions. In this study, a context‐based assessment of regional food balances was conducted, considering key challenges related to socio‐economic development as well as land use competition under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the implementation of reforestation. We examined one of the poorest hinterland provinces in China as a case study, projecting its food deficit and exploring the potential threats to and opportunities for SDG realization by 2030, including population growth, urbanization, urban land expansion and reforestation. The projections revealed a crop deficit of 4.9–9.8 million tonnes, corresponding to the food demands of 10.2–20.6 million people. Approximately 76%–81% of this deficit was expected to be caused by increased food demand, rather than reforestation policies. Therefore, for this less‐developed area with low agricultural productivity and large groups of vulnerable people, population growth and urbanization are likely to result in demands for food that cannot be met locally. In addition, large‐scale reforestation projects, while enhancing a number of key ecosystem services, will increase the local food deficit by promoting the abandonment of cropland. This will result in greater reliance on food imports, with potential impacts on SDG realization in other regions. These findings highlight the need for integrated governance across multiple scales to ensure hinterland sustainability.