With the telecommunications market set to grow by some 60% between 1994 and 2001, major opportunities exist for the exploitation of satellite communications. As with other technologies, the challenge is to realise the equipment compactly and cost-effectively. Compact electronics is being achieved with multichip modules (MCMs). Cost-effectiveness in terrestrial fields is being achieved with the use of high reliability plastic encapsulated microelectronics. Evidence shows that plastic encapsulations operated in the tropics are significantly more reliable than hermetic encapsulated devices. Furthermore, the radiation protection afforded by some silicones makes them very attractive even for space applications. The polymers used for multilayer interconnections of MCMs, when exposed to high doses of radiation, also successfully survive with their critical properties unimpaired. Therefore, plastics and polymers are appropriate technologies for use in space applications. THE CHALLENGE AND THE OPPORTUNITY The use of electronics technologies in space poses interesting but manageable challenges and significant opportunities for the use of multichip modules (MCMs) and low-cost packaging technologies, whose properties offer significant advantages in space and locations involving exposure to radiation. Communication via satellites located in space requires performance at high frequencies in the microwave range (delivered by silicon or GaAs MMICs — monolithic microwave integrated circuits — and controlled by MCMs), hardware technologies which are compact and lightweight and will withstand the acceleration forces during launch and manoeuvre into orbit, semiconductor devices and packaging and interconnection technologies which will withstand prolonged exposure to radiation, and an extremely high reliability because of the high telecommunications traffic carried and the enormous cost of repair if a failure should occur. The performance requirements for the communications systems range from low gigahertz proposed for terrestrial mobile communications using low polar orbit satellites to many gigahertz for many channels of international trunk traffic using geostationary satellites. The reliability requirement is to achieve the equivalent of zero failures in 25 years. This would be described statistically as a particularly low probability of failure bounded by confidence limits (governed by the component count and system Fault Tree Analysis), but the practical approach today is to achieve the correct build of components and system, establishing confidence at each level. THE GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS MARKET Communications is a rapidly expanding market and the total equipment market will grow from $55 billion in 1993 to $86 billion by 2000, subdivided as follows:
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