Low North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

Baleen stable isotopes reveal climate-driven behavioural shifts in North Atlantic fin whales

Climate variability impacts the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems and can trigger behavioural responses in organisms. We investigated whether such variability modulates diet and migration in the North Atlantic fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus). To reconstruct the dietary and migratory behaviours over time, we conducted stable isotope analysis of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) along baleen plates from 29 fin whales sampled off southwestern (SW) Iceland in summer. We estimated a baleen growth rate of 16.1 ± 2.5 cm per year from the stable isotope oscillations observed along the baleens. We also assigned a deposition date for each baleen segment, thus obtaining isotopic sequential time series. We then assessed the potential association of these time series with the main climate patterns of the North Atlantic basin. Baleen δ15N and δ13C values are associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During high AMO and low NAO periods, which tend to decrease krill abundance, there is an increase in both the mean and standard deviation of baleen δ15N values, suggesting that fin whales shift to higher trophic resources and expand their dietary niche. Additionally, high AMO periods, which relate to positive temperature anomalies, lead to a decrease in baleen δ13C values, suggesting that fin whales adjust their migratory routes and destinations towards higher latitudes. Significant variation in isotopic niche width between years also reflected these dietary and migratory behavioural shifts. This highlights the plasticity of the North Atlantic fin whale behaviour, a trait likely to strengthen the resilience of the species within the current context of rapid and intense climate variability.

The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier

This article presents the relationship between climate variables in the Durmitor Massif (Montenegro) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A new climate standard for temperatures and precipitation over the last 30 years has been presented. The Debeli Namet Glacier is an indicator of climate change. We have shown that the size of this glacier is affected by the NAO which mainly affects the precipitation in the accumulation period from December to March. During the ablation period from June to September, the influence of the NAO on precipitation and temperatures is less pronounced. El Niño and La Niña events are significant, especially in years with a low NAO index. The relationship between El Niño/La Niña and the NAO is still a subject of scientific debate.

A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode that controls winter European climate variability because its strength and phase determine regional temperature, precipitation and storm tracks. The NAO spatial structure and associated climatic impacts over Europe are not stationary making it crucial to understanding its past evolution in order to improve the predictability of future scenarios. In this regard, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of studies aimed at reconstructing past NAO variability, but the information related to decadal-scale NAO evolution beyond the last millennium is scarce and inconclusive. We present a new 2,000-year multi-annual, proxy-based reconstruction of local NAO impact, with associated uncertainties, obtained by a Bayesian approach. This new local NAO reconstruction is obtained from a mountain lacustrine sedimentary archive of the Iberian Peninsula. This geographical area is not included in previous NAO reconstructions despite being a widely used region for instrumental-based NAO measurements. We assess the main external forcings (i.e., volcanic eruptions and solar activity) on NAO variability which, on a decadal scale, show that a low number of sunspots correlate to low NAO values. By comparison with other previously published NAO reconstructions in our analyses we can test the stationarity of the solar influence on the NAO signal across a latitudinal gradient based on the position of the employed archives for each NAO reconstruction. Inconclusive results on the volcanic forcing on NAO variability over decadal time-scales indicates the need for further studies. Moreover, we highlight the potential role of other North Atlantic modes of variability (i.e., East Atlantic pattern) on the non-stationary behaviour of the NAO throughout the Common Era, likely via solar forcing.

Anthropogenic food resources, sardine decline and environmental conditions have triggered a dietary shift of an opportunistic seabird over the last 30 years on the northwest coast of Spain

Human activities and environmental conditions are the main drivers of ecosystem change. One major alteration near the western Iberian coast has been the collapse of the Atlanto-Iberian sardine Sardina pilchardus stock, with important cascading effects on marine top predators. We investigated the effect of long-term changes in fishery landings, sardine availability and environmental conditions on the diet of the yellow-legged gull Larus michahellis in the northwest coast of Spain, over the last 30 years (1987–2017). Dietary trends of gulls were investigated through the analysis of 5010 pellets that revealed a sharp decline of fish and refuse and a shift to a crustacean-based diet. General additive mixed models showed that both total fish and sardine occurrences in gull pellets were negatively associated with total fishery landings and positively associated with sardine landings, suggesting fish depletion and higher fishing efficiency (i.e. reduced discards) during the study period. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was also positively related with sardine occurrence in gull pellets, possibly due to low sardine abundance and rough conditions in years with very low NAO values. The refuse decline was most probably caused by the closure of open-air landfills, implemented under the European Union Landfill Directive. Our results suggest that changes in fishing practices and waste disposal were the main factors responsible for the sharp decline of fish and refuse in yellow-legged gull diet.

Changes in the Dust‐Influenced Biological Carbon Pump in the Canary Current System: Implications From a Coastal and an Offshore Sediment Trap Record Off Cape Blanc, Mauritania

AbstractLong‐term data characterizing the oceans' biological carbon pump are essential for understanding impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems. The “Bakun upwelling intensification hypothesis” suggests intensified coastal upwelling due to a greater land‐sea temperature gradient influenced by global warming. We present long time series of bathypelagic (approximately 1,200–3,600 m) particle fluxes from a coastal (CBeu: 2003–2016) and an offshore (CBmeso: 1988–2016) sediment trap setting located in the Canary Current upwelling. Organic carbon (Corg) and biogenic opal (BSi, diatoms) fluxes were twofold to threefold higher at the coastal upwelling site compared to the offshore site, respectively, and showed higher seasonality with flux maxima in spring. A relationship between winter and spring BSi fluxes to the North Atlantic Oscillation index was best expressed at the offshore site CBmeso. Lithogenic (dust) fluxes regularly peaked in winter when frequent low‐altitude dust storms and deposition occurred, decreasing offshore by about threefold. We obtained a high temporal match of short‐term peaks of BSi and dust fluxes in winter to spring at the inner site CBeu. We found synchronous flux variations at both sites and an anomalous year 2005, characterized by high BSi and Corg fluxes under a low North Atlantic Oscillation. Corg and BSi fluxes revealed a decreasing trend from 2006 to 2016 at the coastal site CBeu, pointing to coastal upwelling relaxation during the last two decades. The permanent offshore upwelling zone of the deflected Canary Current represented by the flux record of CBmeso showed no signs of increasing upwelling as well which contradicts the Bakun hypothesis.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Swedish Winter Climate and Nutrient Leaching.

The winter climate in northwestern Europe is commonly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Its intensity, expressed as an index (NAO), has been suggested for use in assessing nutrient leaching from arable land to water and the effects of mitigation measures. We found significant ( < 0.05) positive linear relationships between NAO and an air freezing-thawing index in central and southern Sweden for 2004 to 2016. This period covered winters with both extreme low and high NAO. There were significant negative linear relationships between NAO and a snow depth index. Management and nutrient leaching were studied simultaneously in two agricultural catchments (20.7 ha, code 11M; 788 ha, code M36) in southwestern Sweden. Catchments 11M (silty-clay soil) and M36 (sandy hills with a central, heavy clay plain) are both artificially drained. Total N and total P leaching increased significantly with winter (November-April) NAO in both catchments. In contrast, leaching of dissolved reactive P (DRP) was not related to NAO. The highest DRP concentrations were observed in connection with specific agricultural practices, whereas moderately elevated DRP concentrations were linked to snowmelt events. Concentrations of P in other forms (other P) were even more elevated (1.02 mg L) in 11M in winter 2014-2015, probably due to a large (32% of area) internal buffer (ley-fallow) in a central ravine being plowed down in autumn 2014. No general trend in P or N fertilization was found in catchment M36. Thus NAO may be appropriate for use in trend analyses of nutrient load in the study region.

Drought Characteristics and Its Response to the Global Climate Variability in the Yangtze River Basin, China

The frequent occurrence of drought events in humid and semi-humid regions is closely related to the global climate variability (GCV). In this study, the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was taken as an index to investigate the drought in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a typical humid and semi-humid region in China. Furthermore, nine GCV indices, such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were taken to characterize the GCV. Correlation analysis and a joint probability distribution model were used to explore the relationship between the drought events and the GCV. The results demonstrated that there were six significant spatiotemporal modes revealed by SPEI3 (i.e., seasonal drought), which were consistent with the distribution of the main sub basins in the YRB, indicating a heterogeneity of drought regime. However, the SPEI12 (i.e., annual drought) can only reveal five modes. Precipitation Indices and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Indices were more closely related to the drought events. A causal relationship existed between ENSO precipitation index (ESPI), NAO, East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (Nino3.4) and Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) and drought in the YRB, respectively. Drought events were most sensitive to the low NAO and high NOI events. This study shows a great significance for the understanding of spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought and will provide a reference for the further formulation of water resources policy and the prevention of drought disasters.

Local and regional climate variables driving spring phenology of tortricid pests: a 36 year study

1. Insect phenology is driven by local climate variables, most notably temperature. Increased warming has been linked to advancements in critical phenophases such as the spring flight of reproductive adults in the mid‐Atlantic region of the U.S.A.2. Local climate is governed by the fluctuations of large‐scale climate oscillations. In the northern hemisphere, both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) control the local autumn and winter severity. Low NAO and AO indices are associated with colder autumns and winters, which can delay spring phenology.3. In this study, 36 years of data from experimental fruit orchards in Biglerville, Pennsylvania, were used to run partial least‐squares regressions in order to determine the climate variables related to the spring phenology of five tortricid pest species.4. The phenology of the tortricid pests did not advance, even though there was evidence of warming at the research site.5. Spring temperatures were found to be the most significant climate variables in determining the timing of the spring flights. However, autumn–winter temperatures were also important.6. For the NAO and the AO, it was found that these oscillations affected the tortricid moths by influencing autumn–winter conditions. The oscillations of the NAO and AO can obscure long‐term changes in phenology.7. These findings suggest that the inclusion of large‐scale climate oscillations can provide important insights into how climate conditions can influence insect phenology, and presents an opportunity for improving the ability to forecast spring emergence.

Greenland blocking index daily series 1851–2015: Analysis of changes in extremes and links with North Atlantic and UK climate variability and change

We present a homogenized Greenland blocking index (GBI) daily record from 1851 to 2015, therefore significantly extending our previously published monthly/seasonal GBI analysis. This new time series is analysed for evidence of changes in extreme events, and we investigate the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic precursors. We compare occurrences and changes in extreme events between our GBI record and a recently published, temporally similar daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) series, and use this comparison to test dynamic meteorology hypotheses relating negative NAO to Greenland blocking. We also compare daily GBI changes and extreme events with long‐running indices of England and Wales temperature and precipitation, to assess potential downstream effects of Greenland blocking on UK extreme weather events and climate change. In this extended analysis we show that there have been sustained periods of positive GBI during 1870–1900 and from the late 1990s to present. A clustering of extreme high GBI events since 2000 is not consistently reflected by a similar grouping of extreme low NAO events. Case studies of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes linked with extreme high and low daily GBI episodes are used to shed light on potential linkages between Greenland blocking and jet‐stream changes. Particularly noteworthy is a clustering of extreme high GBI events during mid‐October in 4 out of 5 years during 2002–2006, which we investigate from both cryospheric and dynamic meteorology perspectives. Supporting evidence suggests that these autumn extreme GBI episodes may have been influenced by regional sea‐ice anomalies off west Greenland but were probably largely forced by increases in Rossby‐wave train activity originating from the tropical Pacific. However, more generally our results indicate that high GBI winter anomalies are co‐located with sea‐ice anomalies, while there seems to be minimal influence of sea‐ice anomalies on the recent significant increase in summer GBI.

Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere, with significant consequences on long-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant transport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate change scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general circulation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. Similarly to other works, the model shows a future northeastward shift of the NAO centres of action and a weak positive trend of the NAO index (over 150 years). Moreover, we find that NAO trends (computed over periods shorter than 30 years) will continue to oscillate between positive and negative values in the future. To investigate the NAO effects on transport we consider carbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual emissions. We find that at the end of the century, the south-western Mediterranean and northern Africa will, during positive NAO phases, see higher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past, while a wider part of northern Europe will, during positive NAO phases, see lower pollutant concentrations. Such results are confirmed by the changes observed in the future for tracer concentration and vertically integrated tracer transport, differentiating the cases of “high NAO” and “low NAO” events.

Link between anomalously cold winters in Russia and sea-ice decline in the Barents Sea

There were several anomalously cold winter weather regimes in Russia in the early 21st century. These regimes were usually associated with a blocking anticyclone south of the Barents Sea. Numerical simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using prescribed sea-ice concentration (SIC) data for different periods during the last 50 years showed that a rapid sea-ice area decline in the Barents Sea in the last decade could bring about the formation of such a blocking anticyclone and cooling over northern Eurasia. The SIC reduction in the former period, from the second half of the 1960s to the first half of the 1990s, results in a weaker response of opposite sign. This suggests a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to the SIC reduction in the Barents Sea, which has been previously found in the idealized AGCM simulations. An impact of the Barents Sea SIC reduction on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in particular, on the formation of the anomalously low NAO index, is found. The results indicate an important role that the Barents Sea, a region with the largest variability of the ocean–atmosphere heat exchange in the Arctic in wintertime, plays in generating anomalous weather regimes in Russia.

Teleconnection of Instream Total Organic Carbon Loads with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

<abstract> <b>Abstract.</b> Recently, total organic carbon (TOC) load has attracted a great deal of attention from water quality managers because it can form disinfection byproducts (DBP) during chlorination of drinking water. TOC loads in streams are generally affected by the hydrologic characteristics of a basin. In addition to the basin characteristics, hydrologic characteristics are affected by climate variability associated with a number of the oceanic and atmospheric phenomena that operate at seasonal to multidecadal time scales. Consideration of these large-scale climate phenomena, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are important for water quality managers because they can provide additional information for reducing TOC loads (and hence potential for DBP formation) in the drinking water supply. The objective of this study was to see if teleconnections exist between ENSO, NAO, PDO, and TOC loads. This study was conducted in the Big Creek watershed in southern Alabama in a series of steps. In the first step, model-simulated TOC loads were used to understand the effect of climate on TOC loads while keeping the land use and anthropogenic effects constant. In the second step, wavelet analysis, including cross wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence, was conducted to examine the correlation of ENSO, NAO, and PDO with TOC load in a time and frequency space. Analysis indicated that the common period of oscillations of various climate signals with TOC loads was detected even though NAO and PDO are decadal phenomena. Further, we examined the effects of ENSO, NAO, and PDO on large TOC loads using ten possible combinations of climate signals. TOC loads in El Niño winters and springs were significantly higher than in La Niña winters and springs, especially when ENSO was modulated with high (positive) NAO and high (positive) PDO. Similarly, TOC loads in El Niño or La Niña, occurring concurrently with high PDO and high NAO, were higher than TOC loads in neutral periods occurring concurrently with low (negative) PDO and low (negative) NAO. Interestingly, TOC loads in the La Niña phase were significantly higher than in the El Niño phase from August to October, especially when La Niña was modulated with high PDO and high NAO. Quantifying instream TOC loads with various climatic conditions is helpful for monitoring TOC loads and devising control measures.

Windiness spells in SW Europe since the last glacial maximum

Dunefields have a great potential to unravel past regimes of atmospheric circulation as they record direct traces of this component of the climate system. Along the Portuguese coast, transgressive dunefields represent relict features originated by intense and frequent westerly winds that largely contrast with present conditions, clearly dominated by weaker northwesterly winds. Optical dating and subsurface stratigraphy document three age clusters indicating main episodes of dune mobilization during: the last termination (20–11.6 ka), Middle Holocene (5.6 ka), and Late Holocene (1.2–0.98 and 0.4–0.15 ka).We find reconstructed windfields to be analogous during all episodes and dominated by strong westerlies. Yet, larger grain size diameters and dune volumes documented for the last termination support amplified patterns compatible with a southward shift and intensification of the North Atlantic westerlies during winters. Conversely, dunes deposited after the Middle Holocene are compatible with more variable windfields and weakened patterns controlled by interannual shifts towards low values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).This work demonstrates that present windfield regimes in southern Europe are not compatible with past aeolian activity. Indeed, present day analogs indicate that wind intensities compatible with past aeolian activity are rare at present (sediment transport potentials below estimates in the aeolian record), but can occur if the jet stream is diverted to the south (i.e. 30°N with negative NAO index) or if very deep cyclones anchor around 50°N, extending their influence to the western Portuguese coast (relatively low NAO index). However, these conditions represent temporary patterns lasting around one day, while we suggest that the identified episodes of aeolian activity may represent semi-permanent conditions.

Nonstationary impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the response of mid-latitude Eurasian climate

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), although a local atmospheric mode over the North Atlantic Ocean, plays an important remote role in the Eurasian climate. However, the link between the NAO and Eurasian climate might be unstable. Here, we present a study on the relationship between the winter NAO and mid-latitude Eurasian climate, especially the mid-latitude East Asian precipitation, mainly based on meteorological data and output from an 1155-year-long coupled ocean–atmosphere model simulation. The results show that the winter NAO exerts a remarkable effect on the changes in mid-latitude Eurasian climate; however, the impact of the NAO is nonstationary. According to the model output, the impact of the NAO varies synchronously with the NAO variance with a period of around 150 years. During the high NAO variance period, the NAO has significant correlation with mid-latitude East Asian precipitation; low NAO variance periods do not. The variation of the NAO–precipitation teleconnection may arise from the changing influence of NAO on the local temperature. The NAO signal moves eastward by a zonally oriented wave train, where it modulates the atmospheric circulation structure, and thus results in the nonstationary relationship between the NAO and mid-latitude East Asian precipitation.

Recent seasonal asymmetric changes in the NAO (a marked summer decline and increased winter variability) and associated changes in the AO and Greenland Blocking Index

Recent changes are found in the means and variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. There has been a sustained significant recent decrease in the summer NAO since the 1990s and, at the same time, a striking increase in variability of the winter – especially December – NAO that resulted in three of five (two of five) record high (record low) NAO Decembers occurring during 2004–2013 in the 115-year record. These NAO changes are related to an increasing trend in the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI, high pressure over Greenland) in summer and a more variable GBI in December. The enhanced early winter NAO variability originates mainly at the southern node of the NAO but is also related to the more variable GBI in December. Transition seasons (spring and autumn) have remained relatively unchanged over the last 30 years. These results are corroborated using several NAO indices. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, although strongly correlated with the NAO, does not show the recent sustained significant summer decrease, but it does show enhanced early winter variability. These recent observed changes are not present in the current generation of global climate models, although the latest process studies do offer insight into their causes. We invoke several plausible climate forcings and feedbacks to explain the recent NAO changes.

Middle- to late-Holocene storminess in Brittany (NW France): Part II – The chronology of events and climate forcing

This study focuses on the recurring climate conditions required for the largest storms occurring in NW France (Brittany). It is based on the analysed records of storm events along Western Brittany coast (see Part I). In this manuscript (Part II), storm recurrence is explored along with forcing mechanisms. Periods of more frequent storm events over the two last centuries are analysed first in order to link these events with possible forcing mechanisms (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modes) triggering the most destructive storms. Then, palaeostorm events are discussed at the Holocene scale, from 6000 yr BP to present, to verify the forcing mechanisms. Most recorded events appear to be linked with cooling episodes, mostly in winter, a transition to or from a negative winter NAO mode, a positive AMO mode. Extreme storms occur immediately prior to the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (MWP). Maximum effects are reached prior to the onset of the MWP and during the Maunder and Dalton solar minima. Low storm activity occurred during the Spörer Minimum linked to an acceleration of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Main storm triggers seem to correspond to a positive AMO mode with an unstable jetstream configuration driving a negative NAO. In this study, four specific weather configurations were defined to explain each type of recorded storminess. The strongest storms correspond to low AMO and decennial-negative NAO modes (e.g. ‘Little Ice Age’), or high AMO in association with dominant low NAO modes, as during the early Middle Age and present-day period. Fresh or warm oceans in association with a positive NAO mode are stormy but with very low sting storms frequency. Although in agreement with the orbital forcing and the Holocene glacial history, increasing storm frequency and intensity is most probably partly biased by continuous sea-level rise and resulting erosion.

Greenland Sea Surface Temperature Change and Accompanying Changes in the Northern Hemispheric Climate

Abstract A sudden change in the reference Greenland Sea surface temperature (GSST) in 1979 is identified. It is found to be a part of complex changes in the northern North Atlantic seas. The GSST change, in particular, resulted in a major change in the near-surface baroclinicity in the region, in addition to a large change in the net surface heat flux at the air–sea boundary over the Greenland Sea. The differences in the atmospheric mean state between two periods, one before and the other after the GSST change in the late 1970s, resemble those between the high and low North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index states. In addition to the changes in the mean state, major changes in the interannual variability of the atmosphere are found. A particularly interesting change in the interannual variability is found in the relationship between July GSST and the NAO phase in the following February. There is a strong correlation between July GSST and the NAO phase in the following February before the late 1970s but not at all after the late 1970s. The characteristics of these changes suggest that they may be a part of the high-frequency details of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

The effect of the NAO on sea level and on mass changes in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea level in the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1993–2011 is studied on the basis of altimetry, temperature, and salinity data and gravity measurements from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) (2002–2010). An observed increase in sea level corresponds to a linear sea level trend of 3.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr dominated by the increase in the oceanic mass in the basin. The increase in sea level does not, however, take place linearly but over two 2–3 year periods, each contributing 2–3 cm of sea level. Variability in the basin sea level and its mass component is dominated by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO influence on sea level is primarily linked with atmospheric pressure changes and local wind field changes. However, neither the inverse barometer correction nor a barotropic sea level model forced by atmospheric pressure and wind can remove fully the NAO influence on the basin sea level. Thus, a third contributing mechanism linked with the NAO is suggested. During winter 2010, a low NAO index caused a basin sea level increase of 12 cm which was almost wholly due to mass changes and is evidenced by GRACE. About 8 cm of the observed sea level change can be accounted for as due to atmospheric pressure and wind changes. The residual 4 cm of sea level change is caused by the newly identified contribution. The physical mechanisms that may be responsible for this additional contribution are discussed.

Influência da Oscilação do Atlântico Norte no clima do continente europeu e no caudal dos rios ibéricos atlânticos

THE IMPACT OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ON THE EUROPEAN CLIMATE AND RIVER FLOW OF THREE MAJOR IBERIAN RIVERS – The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most dominant mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH) and has recently been shown to be related to climate over large regions of the NH, in particular, over the European and North American continents. Here, a multivariable analysis of the influence ofthe NAO on the climate of the North Atlantic and European sectors is presented using the 40 year (1958-97) reanalysis data set from National Centres for Environmental Prediction. Using high and low NAO index composites, anomaly fields of climate variables are then interpreted based on physical mechanisms associated with the anomalous mean flow (characterised by the surface wind field) and theanomalous eddy activity (characterised by the surface vorticity and the 500hPa storm track fields). It is shown that NAO-related temperature patterns are mainly controlled by the advection of heat by the anomalous mean flow. However, asymmetries between minimum and maximum temperatures, and more significantly, between positive and negative phases of NAO imply the importance of a different mechanism, namely the modulation of short wave and long wave radiation by cloud cover variations associated with the NAO. Furthermore, NAO influence over two different precipitation-related variables, namely, precipitation rate and precipitable water display different patterns. Precipitable water is shown to be strongly related to the corresponding anomaly fields of temperature while precipitation rate appears to be controlled by the surface vorticity field and associated strength of the tropospheric synoptic activity. Finally, we have assessed the impact of the NAO on winter river flow regimes for several different Portuguese rivers, including the three main international Iberian rivers, the Douro (north), the Tagus (centre) and the Guadiana (south). Results show that the large inter-annual variability of flow of these three rivers is largely modulated by the NAO. Such modulation, associated with the recent positive trend of the NAO index, might implicate a significant decrease of the available flow. This reduction can representan important hazard for the Portuguese economy due to its negative impact in agricultural yield and hydroelectric power production.