Low-level Moisture Convergence Research Articles

Decadal long convection-permitting regional climate simulations over eastern China: evaluation of diurnal cycle of precipitation

With a decadal long period (1998–2010) climate simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution (4 km) (WRF_CPM), the diurnal cycles of precipitation amount (PA), frequency (PF) and intensity (PI) and their related large-scale atmospheric circulations over eastern China are analyzed. The simulations are further compared against the CN05.1, CMORPH v1.0 and the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAIN). Results show that WRF_CPM can reasonably represent the observed seasonal rainfall and the atmospheric circulations. As for the features at a sub-daily scale, WRF_CPM is superior at reproducing the diurnal amplitude of PF that is similar to PA in terms of the spatial distribution. Moreover, the diurnal peak timing of summer PF and PA over the three sub-regions, i.e., North China (NC), Yangtze-Huaihe River basin (YHR) and South China (SC), can be properly reproduced by WRF_CPM. The observed precipitation systems exhibit obvious eastward propagation from the Plateau to its downstream, which may be due to the solenoid circulations associated with the low-level anomalous wind and moisture convergence. However, they are almost overestimated by WRF_CPM and in turn causing overestimated precipitation along YHR. The early morning precipitation in WRF_CPM has a larger fraction than CMORPH, which is related to the overestimated nocturnal low-level jet. Whereas, due to the solar heating and the land-sea breezes, the late-afternoon precipitation peak is mainly located along the coasts of eastern China, which matches well with the vertical motion in WRF_CPM.

Impacts of the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Local Sea Surface Temperature on Heavy Snowfall over the Yeongdong Region

AbstractThis research investigates the impact of local sea surface temperature (SST) on the 2-month (January and February) accumulated snowfall over the Yeongdong (YD) region. The YD region is strongly affected by synoptic-scale factors such as the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The relationships of snowfall over the YD region to the EAWM and local SST are examined based on observational analyses and sensitivity experiments using a regional climate model. In the sensitivity experiments, local SST is replaced with the 33-yr mean winter SST (1982–2014). The observational analysis shows that both the synoptic environment and local SST are important factors for the occurrence of anomalous heavy snowfall over the YD region. The favorable synoptic environments can be characterized by eastward expansion of the Siberian high over Manchuria and corresponding enhancement of easterly anomalies over the YD region. These conditions are more frequently observed during the weak EAWM years than during the strong EAWM. Furthermore, warm SST over the East Sea contributes to heavy snowfall over the YD region by providing heat and moisture in the lower troposphere, which are important sources of energy for the formation of heavy snowfall. Warm SST anomalies over the East Sea enhance low-level moisture convergence over the YD region, while cold SST anomalies lead to reduced moisture convergence. Sensitivity experiments indicate that local SST can significantly affect snowfall amount over the YD region when the synoptic environments are favorable. However, without these synoptic conditions (expansion of the Siberian high and easterly inflow), the impact of local SST on the snowfall over the YD region is not significant.

Improved representation of the diurnal variation of warm season precipitation by an atmospheric general circulation model at a 10\xa0km horizontal resolution

This study investigates the diurnal variation of the warm season precipitation simulated by the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 atmospheric general circulation model for 2 years (2005–2006) at a horizontal resolution of 10 km. The simulation was validated with the satellite-derived Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation data and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications atmospheric reanalysis for atmospheric winds and moisture. The simulation is compared with the coarse-resolution run in 50 km to examine the impacts driven by resolution change. Overall, the 10 km model tends to reproduce the important features of the observed diurnal variation, such as the amplitude and phase at which precipitation peaks in the evening on land and in the morning over the ocean, despite an excessive amplitude bias over land. The model also reproduces the realistic propagation patterns of precipitation in the vicinity of ocean coasts and major mountains. The regional characteristics of the diurnal precipitation over two regions, the Bay of Bengal and the Great Plains in North America, are examined in detail, where the observed diurnal cycle exhibits a systematic transition in the peak phase due to the development and propagation of regional-scale convective systems. The model is able to reproduce this pattern as well as the diurnal variation of low-level wind and moisture convergence; however, it is less effective at representing the nocturnal peak of precipitation over the Great Plains. The model results suggest that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model to 10 km substantially improves the representation of the diurnal precipitation cycle. However, intrinsic model deficiencies in topographical precipitation and the accurate representation of mesoscale convective systems remain a challenge.

Noninstantaneous Wave-CISK for the Interaction between Convective Heating and Low-Level Moisture Convergence in the Tropics

Abstract The interaction between tropical convective heating and thermally forced circulation is investigated using a global dry primitive-equation model with the parameterization of wave-conditional instability of the second kind (CISK). It is demonstrated that deep convective heating can hardly sustain itself through the moisture convergence at low levels regardless of the fraction of immediate consumption of converged moisture. In contrast, when the fraction is large, shallow convective heating and its forced circulation exhibit preferred growth of small scales. As the “CISK catastrophe” mainly comes from the instantaneous characters of moisture–convection feedback in the conventional wave-CISK, a noninstantaneous wave-CISK is proposed, which highlights the accumulation–consumption (AC) time scale for the convective heating accumulation and/or the converged moisture consumption. In the new wave-CISK, once moisture is converged, the release of latent heat takes place gradually within an AC time scale. In this sense, convective heating is not only related to the instantaneous moisture convergence at the current time, but also to that which occurred in the past period of the AC time scale. The noninstantaneous wave-CISK could guarantee the occurrence of convective heating and/or moisture convergence at larger scales, and then favor the growth of long waves, and thus solve the problem of CISK catastrophe. With the new wave-CISK and AC time scale of 2 days, the simulated convective heating-driven system bears a large similarity to that of the observed convectively coupled Kelvin wave.

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Responses to Deforestation in the Maritime Continent: A Modeling Study

Abstract Tropical deforestation can result in substantial changes in local surface energy and water budgets, and thus in atmospheric stability. These effects may in turn yield changes in precipitation. The Maritime Continent (MC) has undergone severe deforestation during the past few decades but it has received less attention than the deforestation in the Amazon and Congo rain forests. In this study, numerical deforestation experiments are conducted with global (i.e., Community Earth System Model) and regional climate models (i.e., Regional Climate Model version 4.6) to investigate precipitation responses to MC deforestation. The results show that the deforestation in the MC region leads to increases in both surface temperature and local precipitation. Atmospheric moisture budget analysis reveals that the enhanced precipitation is associated more with the dynamic component than with the thermodynamic component of the vertical moisture advection term. Further analyses on the vertical profile of moist static energy indicate that the atmospheric instability over the deforested areas is increased as a result of anomalous moistening at approximately 800–850 hPa and anomalous warming extending from the surface to 750 hPa. This instability favors ascending air motions, which enhance low-level moisture convergence. Moreover, the vertical motion increases associated with the MC deforestation are comparable to those generated by La Niña events. These findings offer not only mechanisms to explain the local climatic responses to MC deforestation but also insights into the possible reasons for disagreements among climate models in simulating the precipitation responses.

Mechanisms of Northward-Propagating Intraseasonal Oscillation over the South China Sea during the Pre-Monsoon Period

AbstractIn the present study, the spatiotemporal structures of the northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the South China Sea (SCS) in the premonsoon period are analyzed by using the TropFlux air–sea flux and the JRA-55 reanalysis datasets. It is found that the SCS ISO is significant in the premonsoon season with a strong component of the northward propagation and that the mean state is different from that of summertime. Moreover, there are similar structures to those of a boreal summer ISO event except for the perturbation vorticity with no obvious phase leading. An internal atmospheric dynamics mechanism is proposed to understand the cause of the northward propagation of the ISO during the premonsoon period based on the spatial and temporal structures of the ISOs. The key process associated with this mechanism is the barotropic vorticity advection by the mean barotropic southerly winds, and the main barotropic vorticity around the convection center can be induced by the vertical advection of the mean vorticity. Low-level moisture convergence caused by anomalous flow is a supplementary mechanism to drive the ISOs northward during the premonsoon period, particularly over the northern SCS. In this mechanism, the SST-induced wind anomalies play a more important role than the convection-induced wind anomalies. The summer monsoon circulation has not built up during the premonsoon period, and thus the vertical wind shear effect and the barotropic vorticity effect associated with the meridional advection of baroclinic vorticity are not essential to cause the northward propagation of the ISOs over the SCS.

Young Ocean Waves Favor the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones—A Global Observational Analysis

Abstract Identifying the condition(s) of how tropical cyclones intensify, in particular rapid intensification, is challenging, because of the complexity of the problem involving internal dynamics, environments, and mutual interactions; yet the benefit to improved forecasts may be rewarding. To make the analysis more tractable, an attempt is made here focusing near the sea surface, by examining 23-yr global observations comprising over 16 000 cases of tropical cyclone intensity change, together with upper-ocean features, surface waves, and low-level atmospheric moisture convergence. Contrary to the popular misconception, we found no statistically significant evidence that thicker upper-ocean layers and/or warmer temperatures are conducive to rapid intensification. Instead, we found in storms undergoing rapid intensification significantly higher coincidence of low-level moisture convergence and a dimensionless air–sea exchange coefficient closely related to the youth of the surface waves under the storm. This finding is consistent with the previous modeling results, verified here using ensemble experiments, that higher coincidence of moisture and surface fluxes tends to correlate with intensification, through greater precipitation and heat release. The young waves grow to saturation in the right-front quadrant as a result of trapped-wave resonance for a group of Goldilocks cyclones that translate neither too slowly nor too quickly, which 70% of rapidly intensifying storms belong. Young waves in rapidly intensifying storms also produce relatively less (as percentage of the wind input) Stokes-induced mixing and cooling in the cyclone core. A reinforcing coupling between tropical cyclone wind and waves leading to rapid intensification is proposed.

WRF-based assessment of the Great Lakes' impact on cold season synoptic cyclones

Synoptic events in December are studied with regard to the Great Lakes' influence on extratropical cyclones using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Here, four selected events are arranged into two pairs of comparisons: strong events (2006, 2009) versus weak events (2008, 2013); traversing events (2008, 2009) versus bypassing events (2006, 2013). For each case, the land surface model in WRF is initialized with two different configurations: the control run with real land coverage and the no-lake run in which the lakes are replaced by land. The control simulation shows that the WRF model exhibits a good performance in reproducing precipitation, sea-level pressure and air temperature. Comparisons between control and no-lake runs among these cases indicate that the lake-air temperature gradient, inducing vertical heat flux, is most prominent in the weak bypassing event (case 2013), while lake-land roughness contrast contributes to the low-level moisture convergence. The Great Lakes' impact generally strengthens the cyclonic system near the surface but is sensitive to the background flow. This effect becomes much more significant for the development of cyclones with colder atmospheric conditions, suggesting that the meso-to-synoptic scale interaction should be taken into account when considering the Great Lakes' influence.

Investigation on the Bay of Bengal branch of summer monsoon during normal and delayed onset over Gangetic West Bengal

The regional features of Bay of Bengal (BOB) branch of summer monsoon (SM) are examined to identify the causes of delayed onset over Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) in the years having normal onset over Kerala coast. The normal onset over both GWB and Kerala is designated as Normal–Normal (NN) years, while delayed onset over GWB and normal onset over Kerala is termed Normal–Delayed (ND) years. The temperature gradient (TTg), winds at 850 and 150 hPa pressure levels, sea-surface temperature (SST), outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), low-level moisture convergence, instability, and rainfall rate (RR) are analyzed in this study using National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reanalysis dataset during the period from 1981 to 2015. The result shows that TTg over BOB plays a significant role in controlling the movement of BOB branch of SM. Warm SST is observed to prevail over north BOB during NN years. The divergence at 150 hPa and convergence at 850 hPa pressure levels are found to influence the propagation of BOB branch of SM during both NN and ND years. The winds at 850 hPa level converge over BOB and GWB during NN years, whereas winds converge more over eastern BOB and Indo-Chinese peninsula during ND years. Result depicts abundance of low-level (850–1000 hPa) moisture over eastern BOB and Indo-Chinese peninsula during ND years, whereas moisture is observed to converge over north and north-eastern BOB during NN years. The RR is observed to be slightly higher during NN than ND years. However, it may not be concluded from the analysis that delayed onset over GWB will be responsible for less RR over the study region.

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

Previous work has identified six large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) of dynamic tropopause height associated with extreme precipitation over the Northeast US, with extreme precipitation defined as the top 1% of daily station precipitation. Here, we examine the three-dimensional structure of the tropopause LSMPs in terms of circulation and factors relevant to precipitation, including moisture, stability, and synoptic mechanisms associated with lifting. Within each pattern, the link between the different factors and extreme precipitation is further investigated by comparing the relative strength of the factors between days with and without the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The six tropopause LSMPs include two ridge patterns, two eastern US troughs, and two troughs centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strong seasonality associated with each pattern. Extreme precipitation in the ridge patterns is associated with both convective mechanisms (instability combined with moisture transport from the Great Lakes and Western Atlantic) and synoptic forcing related to Great Lakes storm tracks and embedded shortwaves. Extreme precipitation associated with eastern US troughs involves intense southerly moisture transport and strong quasi-geostrophic forcing of vertical velocity. Ohio Valley troughs are associated with warm fronts and intense warm conveyor belts that deliver large amounts of moisture ahead of storms, but little direct quasi-geostrophic forcing. Factors that show the largest difference between days with and without extreme precipitation include integrated moisture transport, low-level moisture convergence, warm conveyor belts, and quasi-geostrophic forcing, with the relative importance varying between patterns.

An Extreme Hailstorm on 27 July 2017 in Istanbul, Turkey: Synoptic Scale Circulation and Thermodynamic Evaluation

During the afternoon hours of July 27, 2017, an extreme hailstorm struck the most populated city of Turkey, Istanbul. This rapidly growing supercell which produces large hail led to numerous injuries and damaged automobiles, houses, aircrafts, crops, and infrastructure of the city. As a result of the movement of the cut-off cyclone from Middle East to western Turkey, warm air advection penetrated over Marmara, and the land surface temperature of Istanbul reached 34 °C (5 °C above the mean). The transport of significant amount of moisture, which was caused by excessive heating of Marmara Sea surface temperatures (24.9 °C), to the low levels of the atmosphere by strong southwesterly winds enabled the increase of low-level moisture convergence. Both abnormal temperature differences between land and 500-hPa level (41.5 °C) and excessive wind shear values (20.3 m/s) between surface and 6 km above ground level (AGL) increased the thermal instability and updraft conditions of the baroclinic atmosphere. This condition resulted in thunderstorms, stormy and gale wind gusts (31.9 m/s 15:20 UTC), extreme lightning activity (totally 2696 cloud-to-ground and 5791 intracloud), large hailstones between 3–6 cm diameter and high hourly precipitation amounts (38.7, 36.2, 29.8, and 27.2 mm in Sisli, Kadikoy, Uskudar, and Fatih regions, respectively, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC) in the urban settlements of the city. The stability indices, Showalter, K, Total of totals, SWEAT, and CAPE also showed the high probability of severe thunderstorm occurrence over Istanbul. Based on a comparison among these five indices, the SWEAT index is most appropriate to represent the atmospheric conditions over the city owing to low-level moisture, warm air advection, and low and mid-level wind speed terms in its equation.

Differences in CAPE between wet and dry spells of the monsoon over the southeastern peninsular India

In the present research we explored the variability of convective available potential energy (CAPE) during wet and dry spells over southeast India. Comparison between India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations and reanalysis products (NCEP, ERA-interim, and MERRA) reconfirms that gridded data sets can be utilized to fill the void of observations. Later, GPS radiosonde measurements made at Gadanki (13.5 N, 79.2 E) Andre analysis output are utilized to address key scientific issues related to CAPE over the southeastern peninsular region. They are: (1) How does CAPE vary between different spells of the Indian summer monsoon (i.e., from wet to dry spell)? (2) Does differences in CAPE and in the vertical structure of buoyancy between spells are localized features over Gadanki or observed all over southeastern peninsular region? (3) What physical/dynamical processes are responsible for the differences in CAPE between spells and how do they affect the convection growth in dry spell? Interestingly, CAPE is higher in wet spell than in dry spell, in contrast to the observations made elsewhere over land and warm oceans. Similar feature (high CAPE in wet spell) is observed at all grid points in the southeastern peninsular India. Furthermore, vertical buoyancy profiles show only one peak in the middle–upper troposphere in wet spell, while two peaks are observed in most of the profiles (66%) in dry spell over the entire study region in all the reanalysis products. Plausible mechanisms are discussed for the observed CAPE differences. They are, among others, timing of sounding with reference to rain occurrence, rapid buildup of surface instabilities, moistening of lower troposphere by evaporation of the surface moisture in wet spell, enhanced low-level moisture convergence, evaporation of rain in relatively warm and dry atmosphere, and reduction of positive buoyancy in dry spell. The omnipresence of stable layers and strong and deep shear in the presence of weak updrafts (buoyancy) limits the growth of convective draft cores in dry spell.

Effects of Surface Orography and Land–Sea Contrast on the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent: A Numerical Study Using ECHAM5-SIT

This study uses the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ECHAM5 coupled with the newly developed Snow–Ice–Thermocline model (ECHAM5-SIT) to examine the effects of orography and land–sea contrast on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the Maritime Continent (MC) during boreal winter. The ECHAM5-SIT is one of the few AGCMs that realistically simulate the major characteristics of the MJO. Three experiments are conducted with realistic topography, without orography, and with oceans only in the MC region to evaluate the relative effects of orography and land–sea contrast. Orography and land–sea contrast have the following effects on the MJO in the MC: 1) a larger amplitude, 2) a smaller zonal scale, 3) more realistic periodicity and stronger eastward-propagating signals, 4) a stronger southward detour during the eastward propagation, 5) a distorted coupled Kelvin–Rossby wave structure, and 6) larger low-level moisture convergence. The existence of mountainous islands also enhances the mean westerly in the eastern Indian Ocean and the western MC, as well as the moisture content over the MC. This enhancement of mean states contributes to the stronger eastward-propagating MJO. The findings herein suggest that theoretical and empirical studies, which are largely derived from an aquaplanet framework, have likely provided an oversimplified view of the MJO. The effects of mountainous islands should be considered for better understanding and more accurate forecast of the MJO.

Interdecadal change in the summer SST-precipitation relationship around the late 1990s over the South China Sea

An interdecadal change in the air-sea interaction over the South China Sea (SCS) after the late 1990s has been identified using a local contemporaneous precipitation-sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation-SST tendency relationship. During 1979–1998, there is a negative precipitation-SST relationship over the SCS, with a larger magnitude over the northeastern SCS (NESCS) than over the southwestern SCS (SWSCS). The remote effect of warmer SST over the tropical Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in a strong anticyclone and suppressed rainfall over the SCS and western North Pacific. Due to greater mixed-layer depth over the SWSCS than over the NESCS, entrainment heat flux makes a larger contribution to a positive precipitation-SST tendency over the SWSCS than over the NESCS. The cloud-radiation effect has a dominant and positive contribution to the SST tendency over the NESCS, whereas it has a negative contribution to SST tendency over the SWSCS. In contrast, the precipitation-SST correlation becomes weakly negative over the NESCS and significantly positive over the SWSCS during 1999–2013. The CESM-CAM5 model demonstrates that cooler SST over the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) triggers a weak anticyclone, slightly suppressing rainfall over the SCS. The cloud-radiation effect still contributes mostly to a positive SST tendency over the NESCS. Warmer SST over the SWSCS induces an increase in surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence and causes enhanced rainfall. That offsets the remote effect of TCEP SST and results in a negative precipitation-SST tendency with negative cloud-radiation feedback. The interdecadal change in remote forcing to SCS rainfall around the late 1990s is related to the evolution of TCEP SST anomalies from the preceding winter to summer, which is possibly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The Role of Shallow Convection over the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractCumulus (Cu) from shallow convection is one of the dominant cloud types over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in the summer according to CloudSat–CALIPSO observations. Its thermodynamic effects on the atmospheric environment and impacts on the large-scale atmospheric circulation are studied in this paper using the Community Atmospheric Model, version 5.3 (CAM5.3). It is found that the model can reasonably simulate the unique distribution of diabatic heating and Cu over the TP. Shallow convection provides the dominant diabatic heating and drying to the lower and middle atmosphere over the TP. A sensitivity experiment indicates that without Cu over the TP, large-scale condensation and stratiform clouds would increase dramatically, which induces enhanced low-level wind and moisture convergence toward the TP, resulting in significantly enhanced monsoon circulation with remote impact on the areas far beyond the TP. Cu therefore acts as a safety valve to modulate the atmospheric environment that prevents the formation of superclusters of stratiform clouds and precipitation over the TP.

Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992–2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run (“mother domain”) encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

Meteorological analysis of flash floods in Artvin (NE Turkey) on 24 August 2015

Abstract. On 24 August 2015 intense rainfall episodes generated flash floods and landslides on the eastern Black Sea coast of Turkey. As a consequence of the heavy rainstorm activity over Artvin and its surroundings (NE Turkey), 11 people died and economic losses totaled a million dollars. Over the 6 h of the event (from 05:00 to 11:00 UTC), total accumulated rainfall amounts of 136, 64, and 109 mm were measured in the Hopa, Arhavi, and Borçka settlements of Artvin city, respectively. This study comprehensively investigates the meteorological characteristics of those flash floods. In terms of synoptic mechanisms, the cutoff surface low from the summer Asian monsoon settled over the eastern Black Sea. After two days of quasistationary conditions of this cyclone, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reached 27.5 °C (1.5 °C higher than normal) and low-level moisture convergence developed. In addition, transfer of moisture by warm northerly flows from the Black Sea and relatively cool southerly flows from the land coasts of the Artvin district exacerbated the unstable conditions and thus played a significant role in the development of deep convective cells. Severe rainstorms as well as the slope instability of the region triggered landslides and worsened flood damages in the Artvin area. This study supports conventional weather analysis, satellite images, and forecast model output to alert forecasters to the potential for heavy rainfall.

Orographic Land–Atmosphere Interactions and the Diurnal Cycle of Low-Level Clouds and Fog

Abstract Previous work illuminated landform controls on moisture convergence in the southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM) promoting heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low-level clouds (LLC) and seeder–feeder interactions (SFI) that significantly impact warm season precipitation. Here, the focus is on elucidating orographic land–atmosphere interactions associated with the observed diurnal cycle of LLC and fog in the region. Three distinct hydrometeorological regimes during the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) are examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Sensitivity to the choice of planetary boundary layer parameterization was investigated in the light of IPHEx observations. Simulations using the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino scheme exhibit LLC and fog patterns most consistent with observations, albeit without capturing SFI. Independently of synoptic regime, the simulations reveal two distinct modes of orographic controls on atmospheric moisture convergence patterns that explain the diurnal cycle of LLC and fog. First, a stationary nocturnal mode at the meso-α scale associated with an extended flow separation zone supports low-level pooling and trapping of cold, moist, stable air in the inner mountain on the lee side of the western topographic divide. Second, a dynamic daytime mode that results from the coorganization of ridge–valley circulations at the meso-γ scale and Rayleigh–Bénard convection at the meso-β scale is associated with widespread low-level instability below the envelope orography. Orographic decoupling results in the formation of a shallow stagnation zone between the western and eastern topographic divides at night that contracts westward during daytime. Predominantly easterly and southeasterly low-level moisture convergence patterns support early afternoon LLC formation in the inner SAM.

Influence of Kuroshio SST front in the East China Sea on the climatological evolution of Meiyu rainband

The influence of Kuroshio sea surface temperature (SST) front in the East China Sea (ECS) on the temporal evolution of climatological Meiyu rainband was investigated using a suite of high-resolution satellite observations and a reanalysis dataset from 2000 to 2011. During the northward seasonal march of Meiyu rainband from the warmer flank of the SST front to the colder flank, the climatological rainband strength weakened substantially despite large-scale environment became more conducive to intensify precipitation. A sharp reduction in occurrence frequency of precipitation with relatively shallower depth and smaller intensity was responsible for the weakening of Meiyu rainband. During the northward migration of Meiyu rainband, individual precipitation events became deeper and more intensive, and the contribution of convective precipitation to the rainband was enhanced, associated with the seasonal northward extension of high convective instability region over the ECS. The characteristics of Meiyu rainband evolution were generally supported by cloud observations. When Meiyu rainband was located on the warmer flank of the SST front, local enhanced mean surface wind convergence and variance of convergence at synoptic timescale by the warm SST of the Kuroshio favored strong surface convergence that may trigger precipitation. A detailed moisture budget analysis revealed that the major part of moisture for Meiyu precipitation was supplied by low-level wind convergence, with much smaller contribution from moisture advection. The variation of climatological precipitation associated with Meiyu northward migration depended on SST modulation of both surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence over the ECS.

Moisture and Precipitation Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by the SSM/I–SSMIS Retrievals

Abstract The simultaneous precipitation and column water vapor retrievals from the SSM/I and SSMIS passive microwave instruments were used to examine the convective and moisture evolution during tropical cyclone formation. Using a wave-pouch-track dataset, composites of precipitation and column water vapor were constructed with more than 2000 satellite overpasses for a 3-day time period prior to genesis. It was found that high column water vapor occurs near the pouch center and starts to increase about 42 h prior to genesis while a substantial increase in precipitation occurs within 24 h prior to genesis. These features are consistent with a recently proposed two-stage conceptual model for tropical cyclone formation, in which gradual moisture preconditioning precedes an abrupt transition to sustained deep convection leading up to genesis. The relationship between precipitation and saturation fraction (SF) is examined for the developing waves and compared with the general tropical North Atlantic. Precipitation rate is found to increase at the same exponential rate above the same critical point of SF in the two groups, but convection in the developing waves has a higher probability of occurrence near and above criticality. This can be attributed to the positive feedback between convection and the low-level moisture convergence, which counteracts the negative feedback of convection on water vapor and makes convection in a developing tropical cyclone more sustainable.