Low-level Convergence Research Articles

Synoptic Analysis of Flood-Causing Rainfall and Flood Characteristics in the Source Area of the Yellow River

The source area of the Yellow River (SAYR) in China is an important water yield and water-conservation area in the Yellow River. Understanding the variability in rainfall and flood over the SAYR region and the related mechanism of flood-causing rainfall is of great importance for the utilization of flood water resources through the optimal operation of cascade reservoirs over the upper Yellow River such as Longyangxia and Liujiaxia, and even for the prevention of flood and drought disasters for the entire Yellow River. Based on the flow data of Tangnaihai hydrological station, the rainfall data of the SAYR region and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020, three meteorological conceptual models of flood-causing rainfall—namely westerly trough type, low vortex shear type, and subtropical high southwest flow type—are established by using the weather-type method. The mechanism of flood-causing rainfall and the corresponding flood characteristics of each weather type were investigated. The results show that during the process of flood-causing rainfall, in the westerly trough type, the mid- and high-latitude circulation is flat and fluctuating. In the low vortex shear type, the high pressures over the Ural Mountains and the Okhotsk Sea are stronger compared to other types in the same period, and a low vortex shear line is formed in the west of the SAYR region at the low level. The rain is formed during the eastward movement of the shear line. In the subtropical high southwest flow type, the low trough of Lake Balkhash and the subtropical high are stronger compared to other types in the same period. Flood-causing rainfall generally occurs in areas with low-level convergence, high-level negative vorticity, low-level positive vorticity, convergence of water vapor flux, a certain amount of atmospheric precipitable water, and low-level cold advection. In terms of flood peak increment and the maximum accumulated flood volume, the westerly trough type has a long duration and small flood volume, and the low vortex shear type and the subtropical high southwest flow type have a short duration and large flood volume.

Research on the Characteristics of Raindrop Spectrum and Its Water Vapour Transport Sources in the Southwest Vortex: A Case Study of 15–16 July 2021

This study investigated the convective weather features, precipitation microphysical characteristics, and water vapour transport characteristics associated with a southwest vortex precipitation event that occurred on the eastern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, coinciding with a southwest vortex event, from 15 to 16 July 2021, using conventional observations of raindrop spectra, ERA5 reanalysis data, CMORPH precipitation data, and the HYSPLIT_v4 backward trajectory model. The findings aim to provide theoretical insights for improving the forecasting and numerical simulations of southwest vortex precipitation events. The findings revealed that the precipitation event induced by the southwestern vortex at Emeishan Station on 15–16 July 2021 was characterised by high rainfall intensity and significant precipitation accumulation. The raindrop spectrum exhibited a broad distribution with a notable bimodal structure. Both the Sichuan Basin and the Tibetan Plateau were dominated by the South Asian high pressure at higher altitudes, while a pronounced low-pressure system developed at mid and low altitudes within the basin, establishing a meteorological context marked by upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence. Throughout the event, notable vertical uplift velocities were recorded across the Sichuan Basin and Tibetan Plateau, along with distinct positive vorticity zones in the lower and middle strata of the Sichuan Basin, indicating that the atmosphere was in a state of thermal instability. The majority of moisture was in the mid and lower troposphere with evident convergence movements, which played a crucial role in the southwest vortex’s development. WRF numerical simulations of the Emeishan precipitation event more accurately modelled the weather conditions for this precipitation but tended to overestimate the level of precipitation. It was observed that the region around Emei Mountain primarily received moisture influx from the southern Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, with moisture transport chiefly originating from the Sichuan Basin and in a south-westward trajectory.

Windshear Detection in Rain Using a 30 km Radius Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar at Mega Airport in Plateau

Convective weather is often accompanied by precipitation and windshear, seriously endangering the safety of aircraft during takeoff and landing. However, under rainfall conditions, conventional wind lidars have a limited detection range due to significant signal attenuation. To solve this problem, a 200 mm temperature-controlled telescope coated with a hydrophobic film is applied in the coherent Doppler wind lidar system to improve the detection capability in rain. The maximum detection range of the lidar is extended to 30 km and demonstrated at Kunming Changshui International Airport at an altitude of 2102 m. Firstly, the detection accuracy and maximum detection range of the lidar are verified. Through the analysis of the horizontal wind field under two typical convective weather conditions, it is found that convective weather often accompanies low-level convergence and divergence structures, leading to headwind shear and crosswind shear on the airport runway. From the vertical profile, it is shown that the triggering of convective weather is accompanied by low-level southwest winds and high-altitude northeastern winds. According to the statistics of wind speed and direction on clear and rainy days over 9 months, rainy days are usually caused by the invasion of cold air from Northeast China, resulting in airport windshear. In summary, the enhanced lidar can effectively identify and analyze windshear during rainy days, which is very useful for aviation safety, especially for takeoff and landing in all weather conditions.

Analysis and comparison of water vapor transport features and circulation anomalies during the super-strong Meiyu period of 2020 and 1998*

2020 and 1998 are the strongest Meiyu years in recent decades. The characteristics of the super-strong Meiyu precipitation and water vapor sources in 2020 and 1998 were compared, and the atmospheric circulation anomalies and the forcing factor SST were examined. (1) In 2020, the Meiyu duration, accumulated precipitation, and number of rainstorm days were greater than in 1998, and the highest since 1961. The Meiyu period in 2020 experienced 11 rainstorm processes. In 1998, a typical “second Meiyu” phenomenon occurred, and the area of heavy rainfall in 1998 was located further southward than that in 2020 (2) The contribution of the Bay of Bengal-South China Sea (BOB-SCS) to the total supply of water vapor in 2020 and 1998 was 43.0% and 42.0%, respectively, i.e., much higher than that of the climatological mean (25.5%). In 2020, the sources that provide most water vapor were the BOB, SCS, and central Pacific Ocean, while in 1998 were the Arabian Sea, BOB, and the western Pacific Ocean. (3) During the Meiyu period in 2020 and 1998, the position of atmospheric circulation pattern “two ridges and one trough” are different. Analysis of the vertical structure revealed that the specific humidity intensity above the area of heavy rainfall in 1998 was weaker than that in 2020, and the low-level convergence zone was further south and not as strong as in 2020. The positions of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) in 1998 were both further south than those in 2020, which resulted in the more southerly locations of the southwesterly jet stream and rain belt. It should be pointed out that, the important contributions of the SST anomalies in the equatorial central eastern Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean to the anomalous WNPAC in 1998 and 2020, respectively.

Comparison of Cold Pool Characteristics of Two Distinct Gust Fronts over Bohai Sea Bay in China

Previous studies have demonstrated that cold pools play a pivotal role in the initiation and organization of convection, yet their influence on the evolution of gust fronts (GFs) remains inadequately understood. A destructive wind event associated with a rearward gust front (RGF; 8 grade gale after passing GF) and a prior gust front (PGF; 10 grade gale before passing GF) over the north coast of China on 10 June 2016 was analyzed. Using multiple forms of observation data, as well as the four-dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Data Assimilation System (VDRAS), we found that the depth and intensity of the cold pool in RGF are relatively shallower and weaker, leading to a correspondingly reduced strength in both outflow and convergence. In contrast, the enhanced vertical shear and boundary northeaster inflow of PGF generate intensified and more organized downdrafts, resulting in a deeper cold pool, robust outflow, and convergence. Two schematic models were proposed to explain the discrepancy between GFs and associated cold pools. We further show that there is an internal correlation between meso-γ-scale vortices (MVs) and cold pools, the collision of MVs strengthened low-level convergence and updraft between these two GFs. Moreover, the consolidation of the two cold pools exacerbates low-layer instability and rotation, generating an intense horizontal vorticity that leads to rapid convective storm intensification. These findings offer novel insights into the diversity of GFs and associated cold pools.

Revisiting the Seasonal Cycle of Rainfall over Central Africa

Abstract The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), with its twice-annual passage over central Africa, is considered as the main driver of the rainfall seasonality. In this ITCZ paradigm, high rainfall occurs over regions of large low-level convergence. But recently, this paradigm was challenged over central Africa. Here, we show that a shallow meridional overturning circulation—driven by surface conditions—plays a thermodynamical control on the rainfall seasonality over central Africa. Indeed, due to the local evaporative cooling effect, the foot of the ascending branch of Hadley cells occurs where the temperature is the warmest, indicating a thermal low. This distorts the southern Hadley cell by developing its bottom-heavy structure. As result, both shallow and deep Hadley cells coexist over central Africa year-round. The deep mode is associated with the poleward transport of atmospheric energy at upper levels. The shallow mode is characterized by a shallow meridional circulation, with its moisture transport vanishing and converging in the midtroposphere rather than at lower troposphere. This midtropospheric moisture convergence is also the dominant component that shapes the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, with little contribution of African easterly jets. This convergence zone thus controls the precipitating convection. Its meridional migration highlights the interhemispheric rainfall contrast over central Africa and outlines the unimodal seasonality. On the other hand, forced by the Congo basin cell, the precipitable water regulates the deep convection from the vegetated surface of Congo basin, acting as a continental sea. This nonlinear mechanism separates the rainfall into three distinct regimes: the moisture-convergence-controlled regime, with convective rainfall exclusively occurring in the rainy season; the local evaporation-controlled regime with drizzle in the dry season; and the precipitable-water-controlled regime, with exponential rainfall increase in the dry season.

Satellite derived trends and variability of CO2 concentrations in the Middle East during 2014–2023

The Middle East has major sources of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but a dearth of ground-based measurements precludes an investigation of its regional and temporal variability. This is achieved in this work with satellite-derived estimates from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and OCO-3 missions from September 2014 to February 2023. The annual maximum and minimum column (XCO2) concentrations are generally reached in spring and autumn, respectively, with a typical seasonal cycle amplitude of 3–8 ± 0.5 ppmv in the Arabian Peninsula rising to 8–10 ± 1 ppmv in the mid-latitudes. A comparison of the seasonal-mean XCO2 values with the CO2 emissions estimated using the divergence method stresses the role played by the sources and transport of CO2 in the spatial distribution of XCO2, with anthropogenic emissions prevailing in arid and semi-arid regions that lack persistent vegetation. In the 8-year period 2015–2022, the XCO2 concentration in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) increased at a rate of about 2.50 ± 0.04 ppmv/year, with the trend empirical orthogonal function technique revealing a hotspot over northeastern UAE and southern Iran in the summer where anthropogenic emissions peak and accumulate aided by low-level wind convergence. A comparison of the satellite-derived CO2 concentration with that used to drive climate change models for different emission scenarios in the 8-year period revealed that the concentrations used in the latter is overestimated, with maximum differences exceeding 10 ppmv by 2022. This excess in the amount of CO2 can lead to an over-prediction of the projected increase in temperature in the region, an aspect that needs to be investigated further. This work stresses the need for a ground-based observational network of greenhouse gas concentrations in the Middle East to better understand its spatial and temporal variability and for the evaluation of remote sensing observations as well as climate models.

Potential Nephrotoxic Effect of UV-328 and Its Possible Salvage by Dimethoxy Curcumin in Zebrafish

The occurrence of Benzotriazole UV Stabilizer-328 (UV-328) in different environmental and natural systems is of fast regular concern these days. In this current paper, we assessed the renotoxicity of UV-328 in zebrafish kidney tissues to know the chore of oxidative devilry in kidney and to recuperate the renotoxicity utilizing Dimethoxy curcumin (DiMC) supplementation. Grown-up zebrafish were exposed 55µg/L of UV-328 and DiMC supplemented through diet at 50mg/kg BW. Close to the completion of 28 days, renal tissues were examined for the responses of oxidative pressure, antioxidant status and histopathological changes. The results demonstrated that antioxidant enzymes such as, Glutathione (GSH) levels and the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), and glutathione-S-transferase (GST) were all reduced in zebra fish kidneys treated with UV-328. Renal malondialdehyde (MDA) levels was brought prominently up in the UV-328 treated fish. All of the altered variables significantly returned to near-normal levels in the DiMC-supplemented group. Histopathological lesions, viz., hypertrophied glomerulus, cytoplasmic and nuclear degeneration, cytoplasmic vacuolization, degeneration of renal tubules were seen in UV-328 treated kidney of zebrafish which were actually reinforced in the DiMC treated fish. From our outcomes, it has been proposed that even at the low-level convergence of UV-328 exposure is malicious and to provoke oxidative insult, cell reinforcement exhaustion and kidney neurotic devilry in zebrafish and remediation with DiMC has been ended up being the better choice to conquer the harmful oppression prompted by UV-328.

A case study of an extreme flooding episode in Charikar, Eastern Afghanistan

Abstract This work investigates the meteorological mechanisms forming a classical frontal system on 26 August 2020 in the northeast and eastern parts of Afghanistan. The weather system caused heavy rainfall and led to severe flash floods. Flooding, affected by torrential rain showers, struck mostly the city of Charikar in Parvan province early in the morning day, while most people were asleep. This caused 150 deaths, and nearly 500 houses were destroyed. This research explores atmospheric processes by examining the National Centers for Environmental Prediction dataset and MERRA Model database. The calculation of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and Showalter index extracted from the Skew-T log-pressure diagram shows a high value of the CAPE at around 2,632 J/kg and −6.6 for the Showalter index, respectively. This presents a very extreme instability in the study area during the time of the flood. The study reveals that the triggering of this system was mostly by thermodynamical aspects, low-level deep convergence, and local topographical aspects rather than the PV streamer. However, the anomaly climate analysis for different atmospheric elements with a comparison of the climate normal values shows the importance of climate change in the weather system into a stronger frontal activity associated with stronger baroclinicity over the study area.

Evaluation and Error Source Analysis of Convection‐Permitting Forecasts for Localized Nocturnal Rainfall Over a Complex Mountainous Region in Pearl River Delta, South China

AbstractThe concave mountainous area of Pearl River Delta (PRD) is a summer rainfall hotspot of South China due to the presence of warm‐moist monsoon flow and complex orography. This study evaluated the performance of a convection‐permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in forecasting nocturnal rainfall in this area, focusing on days with low level southwesterly winds during the summers of 2013–2015. Results showed that the nocturnal rainfall exhibited two centers, one located along the large‐scale northern mountains and the other along the small‐scale Huadu Hill. WRF demonstrated superior performance in predicting rainfall over the northern mountainous region. In contrast, WRF significantly underestimated nocturnal rainfall both near local Huadu Hill and in the foothill area of northern mountains, which were strongly influenced by local forcings. Using high‐resolution analyses from Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) and Automatic Weather Stations observations, we firstly identified the sources of forecast errors in triggering a typical localized nocturnal convection. Results revealed that WRF severely underestimated thermal contrast between the Guangdong‐Hong Kong‐Macao Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration and the concave mountains, leading to the absence of the northeastern/northern inflows toward the cities. Consequently, low level convergence and updrafts near the convection initiation position were too weak to lift air parcels above the severely overestimated level of free convection, thereby failing to trigger the convection. VDRAS‐based sensitivity experiments, with a specific focus on assimilating surface temperature, validated the crucial role of urban‐mountain thermal contrast on local winds that triggered the nocturnal convection.

A study on some dynamical aspects of Uttarakhand heavy rainfall events

In recent years, heavy rainfall events have been increasing over the Uttarakhand region. Improvement in the prediction of such events crucially dependent on the inclusion of the physical & dynamical processes responsible for such events, in the NWP model. This again, in turn depends on the understanding of such processes. In this study an attempt has been made to understand parts of these processes and some of the dynamical aspects of these heavy rainfall events. For this different important derived NWP products, viz., differential vorticity advection (DVA), differential thermal advection (DTA), Differential moisture advection (DMA), Precipitable water (PW), non-dimensional stability index (NDSI) have been computed using ECMWF high-resolution gridded reanalysis data sets. Heavy rainfall events are defined using IMD high resolution gridded daily rainfall data set. Preliminary analysis revealed that there was a steady increase in DVA, decrease in DTA, increase in PW and decrease in DMA before the heavy rainfall event. An enhanced DVA results in an enhancement in LLC, a decrease in DTA along with a decrease in DMA results in an enhancement of lapse rate. Combined effect of these results in the increase in the low-level convergence at Uttarakhand region along with the rising motion are the major dynamical processes resulted in the heavy rainfall event.

Variations in Key Factors at Different Explosive Development Stages of an Extreme Explosive Cyclone over the Japan Sea

Explosive cyclones (ECs) occur frequently over the Japan Sea. The most rapidly intensifying EC over the Japan Sea during the 44-year period 1979–2022, in the cold season (October–April), was examined to reveal the variations in the key factors at different explosive development stages. The EC deepened at a maximum deepening rate of 3.07 bergerons and explosive development lasted for 15 h. At the initial moment of explosive development, the EC had distinctive low-level baroclinicity, the low-level water vapor convergence was weak, and mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection was far away from the EC’s center. At the moment at which the EC reached the maximum deepening rate, the low-level water vapor convergence and mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection increased distinctly and approached the EC’s center. A diagnostic analysis using the Zwack–Okossi equation showed that the main contributor to the initial explosive development was warm-air advection. Through the evolutionary process of the explosive development, the non-key factors of the cyclonic vorticity advection and diabatic heating at the initial explosive development stage increased quickly and became key factors contributing to the maximum explosive development. The key factors contributing to the explosive development varied with the stage of explosive development. The cross-section and vertical profile of each term suggested that the cyclonic vorticity advection was enhanced in the upper troposphere and diabatic heating increased in the middle troposphere.

Effect of Water Vapor Transport on a Typical Rainstorm Process in the Arid Region of Southern Xinjiang: Observations and Numerical Simulations

There are frequent and intensive periods of heavy rain in the arid areas of southern Xinjiang. This study uses a typical rainstorm process in the South Xinjiang Basin to investigate the weather, physical mechanisms, mesoscale characteristics, and income and expenditure characteristics of water vapor sources, analyzing them using the observation data from southern Xinjiang regional automatic stations, ERA5 reanalysis data, multi-source satellite data, and WRF numerical simulation results. The study results show that torrential rain processes occur in the double-body distribution of the South Asian High in the upper troposphere, which is “high in the east and low in the west,” with “two ridges and one trough” in the middle layer. The development and movement of the low vortex, the configuration of low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and vertical upward movement provide favorable dynamic conditions for heavy rain. Additionally, the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, the Aral Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal are important water vapor sources for this rainstorm. The water vapor reaches the South Xinjiang Basin along westward, southwest, and eastward paths. It is mainly imported into the South Xinjiang Basin from 500 to 300 hPa on the southern border and 700–500 hPa on the west, north, and east borders, and exported from 500 to 300 hPa on the eastern border. The simulation results show that the change in water vapor content significantly influences the precipitation intensity and range. The water vapor transport at the southern boundary contributes the most precipitation during the rainstorm. As the water vapor in the rainstorm area increases (decreases), the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened), the low-level convergence and high-level divergence are strengthened (weakened), the water vapor transport to the middle and high levels increases (decreases), and the precipitation increases (decreases).

Spatiotemporal Distributions and Related Large-Scale Environmental Conditions of Extreme Rainfall from Tropical Cyclones with Different Tracks and Seasons in Guangxi, South China: A Comparative Climatological Study

This study investigates the main climatological features of extreme precipitation (TCER) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Guangxi (GX), South China using multiple datasets and a 99th percentile threshold during 1981–2020, with an emphasis on the rainfall diversities of different high-impact TC groups and their associated mechanisms. Results show that there are large regional differences and a seasonal imbalance in the climatological features of TCER in GX. In summer (fall), TCs with TCER events primarily move northward or eastward (northwestward or westward), namely, S-NWTCs and S-ETCs (F-WTCs and F-NWTCs). The rainfall centers exhibit asymmetrical features with S-NWTCs and F-NWTCs located in the northeast quadrant, but S-ETCs and F-WTCs in the southwest and northeast quadrants, respectively. Comparisons of atmospheric circulations and environmental factors indicate that the intense rainfall of F-WTCs is mainly attributed to the trough–TC interaction, which is accompanied by stronger upper-level westerly jet and cold air intrusion, thus increasing baroclinic energy and uplifting for the strongest rainfall among these four groups. This interaction is absent for other groups due to a greater South Asian high and western North Pacific subtropical high. Instead, the increased rainfall in S-NWTCs and F-NWTCs can mainly be attributed to the stronger low-level southwesterly jet, which, in combination with low-level warm advection and convergence induced by land–sea friction, promotes the release of latent heat through moisture condensation. S-ETCs differ from S-NWTCs and F-NWTCs in that moisture convergence is weaker due to the much-weakened TC circulation.

Fast Response of East Asian Precipitation in June 2020 to Local and Remote Aerosol Emission Reductions during COVID-19

Abstract In this study, the fast response of East Asian summer precipitation to COVID-19–induced aerosol emission reductions is examined using the Community Earth System Model, version 2.2 (CESM2.2). The emission reductions decreased aerosol optical depth and cloud cover over northern China in June 2020. The troposphere became warmer, strengthening the land–sea thermal contrast and anomalous southerly winds. The subtropical westerly jet accelerated and shifted southward, favoring low-level convergence, upward air motions, and subsequent condensational heating over the Yangtze River basin (YRB). The feedback of condensational heating in return strengthened the convergence and ascent. The western North Pacific subtropical high was intensified, which further enhanced the moisture advection and convergence over the YRB. Both the enhanced moisture convergence and ascent increased precipitation over the YRB during June 2020. Furthermore, local and remote emission reductions show different impacts on convection and moisture transport over the YRB. The emission reductions over China caused stronger convective precipitation (1.15 vs 0.63 mm day−1) but weaker larger-scale precipitation (1.17 vs 2.24 mm day−1) than the emission reductions outside China. In addition to the emission reductions, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 2020 also play an important role in increasing precipitation over the YRB, contributing about 42.8%. The relative contribution of SST anomalies also increases under the COVID-19–induced emission scenario.

Can the Assimilation of the Ascending and Descending Sections’ Data from Round-Trip Drifting Soundings Improve the Forecasting of Rainstorms in Eastern China?

To further examine the effectiveness of the ascending and descending sections of the new round-trip drifting sounding system in forecasting high-impact weather such as heavy rainfall, in this study, three assimilation experiments were designed for a rainstorm in eastern China using WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) and WRFDA-3DVAR. Then, the reasons for the improvement in the effects of forecasting rainfall after assimilation were analyzed from various perspectives. The results showed that the assimilation of round-trip drifting sounding data can increase the accuracy of regions of heavy precipitation and improve the effectiveness of rainstorm forecasting. The quality of the wind field improved after the assimilation of the round-trip drifting sounding data, which improved the conditions of moisture transport, resulting in increased humidity in the lower layer, which accumulated more unstable energy for the development of storms. In addition, the enhanced low-level convergence after the assimilation of the new sounding data created a strong upward motion, which was more conducive to triggering heavy rainfall, thus improving the ability to forecast such heavy rainfall.

The Role of Density Currents and Gravity Waves in the Offshore Propagation of Convection over Sumatra

Abstract The Maritime Continent experiences some of the world’s most severe convective rainfall, with an intense diurnal cycle. A key feature is offshore propagation of convection overnight, having peaked over land during the evening. Existing hypotheses suggest this propagation is due to the nocturnal land breeze and environmental wind causing low-level convergence; and/or gravity waves triggering convection as they propagate. We use a convection-permitting configuration of the Met Office Unified Model over Sumatra to test these hypotheses, verifying against observations from the Japanese Years of the Maritime Continent field campaign. In selected case studies there is an organized squall line propagating with the land-breeze density current, possibly reinforced by convective cold pools, at ∼3 m s−1 to around 150–300 km offshore. Propagation at these speeds is also seen in a composite mean diurnal cycle. The density current is verified by observations, with offshore low-level wind and virtual potential temperature showing a rapid decrease consistent with a density current front, accompanied by rainfall. Gravity waves are identified in the model with a typical phase speed of 16 m s−1. They trigger isolated cells of convection, usually farther offshore and with much weaker precipitation than the squall line. Occasionally, the isolated convection may deepen and the rainfall intensify, if the gravity wave interacts with a substantial preexisting perturbation such as shallow cloud. The localized convection triggered by gravity waves does not generally propagate at the wave’s own speed, but this phenomenon may appear as propagation along a wave trajectory in a composite that averages over many days of the diurnal cycle. Significance Statement The intense convection experienced by the Maritime Continent causes high-impact weather in the form of heavy precipitation, which can trigger floods and landslides, endangering human life and infrastructure. The geography of the region, with many islands with complex coastlines and orography, means that the spatial and temporal distributions of convection are difficult to predict. This presents challenges for operational forecasters in the region and introduces biases in weather and climate models, which may propagate globally. A key feature of the convection is its diurnal cycle and associated propagation offshore overnight from the islands. Although this phenomenon has been often investigated, there is no strong consensus in the literature on the mechanism or combination of mechanisms responsible. Improving our knowledge of these mechanisms and how they are represented in a convection-permitting model will assist forecasters in understanding how and when the propagation of intense convective storms occurs, and allow model developers to improve biases in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

Intensification Rates of Tropical Cyclone–Like Vortices in a Model with Downtilt Diabatic Forcing and Oceanic Surface Drag

Abstract Tropical cyclones are commonly observed to have appreciable vertical misalignments prior to becoming full-strength hurricanes. The vertical misalignment (tilt) of a tropical cyclone is generally coupled to a pronounced asymmetry of inner-core convection, with the strongest convection tending to concentrate downtilt of the surface vortex center. Neither the mechanisms by which tilted tropical cyclones intensify nor the time scales over which such mechanisms operate are fully understood. The present study offers some insight into the asymmetric intensification process by examining the responses of tilted tropical cyclone–like vortices to downtilt diabatic forcing (heating) in a 3D nonhydrostatic numerical model. The magnitude of the heating is adjusted so as to vary the strength of the downtilt convection that it generates. A fairly consistent picture of intensification is found in various simulation groups that differ in their initial vortex configurations, environmental shear flows, and specific positionings of downtilt heating. The intensification mechanism generally depends on whether the low-level convergence σb produced in the vicinity of the downtilt heat source exceeds a critical value dependent on the local velocity of the low-level nondivergent background flow in a reference frame that drifts with the heat source. Supercritical σb causes fast spinup initiated by downtilt core replacement. Subcritical σb causes a slower intensification process. As measured herein, the supercritical intensification rate is approximately proportional to σb. The subcritical intensification rate has a more subtle scaling, and expectedly becomes negative when σb drops below a threshold for frictional spindown to dominate. The relevance of the foregoing results to real-world tropical cyclones is discussed.

A strong short-duration convection near Poyang Lake in daytime of warm season

Poyang Lake (PL), the biggest freshwater lake in China, is situated in the East Asian Monsoon region, and has an important impact on local convection. In general, PL can result in convection in local region when it is a heat source in nighttime of warm season. However, at around noon on 4 May 2020 (PL is a cold source), a convection was triggered about 20 km west of PL, and rapidly enhanced and resulted in lightning when approaching PL, and then quickly weakened and disappeared after entering the main body of PL. In order to explore the convection formation, several observational data and the Weather Research and Forecasting model were applied in this study. Results show that when the convection approaches PL, its rapid enhancement is induced by PL, and after entering the main body of PL, its quick weakening is also resulted from PL. However, the initiation of the convection is mainly induced by the local topography west of PL under a favorable large-scale background. Mechanism analysis indicates that the strong low-level convergence near the west shore of PL associated with lake-land breeze is responsible for the rapid enhancement of the convection, and the low-level divergence over the main body of PL associated with the lake-land breeze and the increase of the low-level stability induced by cooling of PL jointly result in the quick weakening of the convection. The prevailing southerly wind in low level passes through the local topography (Meiling Mountain) west of PL, and is divided into southwesterly wind (flow around Meiling) and southerly wind (flow over Meiling), and they converge in the north of Meiling, triggering the convection. This study is not only important to deepen the understanding of PL affecting regional weather, but also helpful for improving the refined forecasting of convection near PL.

Land–Atmosphere Interactions Partially Offset the Accelerated Tibetan Plateau Water Cycle through Dynamical Processes

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has become wetter and warmer during the past four decades, which leads to an adjustment in the surface energy budget, characterized by enhanced surface latent heat and weakened surface sensible heat. However, the impacts of these surface energy changes on climate are unclear. In this study, we investigate the atmospheric response to the altered surface energy budget in the monsoon season over the TP using regional climate simulations. The inhibited surface sensible heating weakens the thermal effect of the TP, which further suppresses low-level convergence and upper-level divergence, thereby weakening the water vapor flux convergence over the plateau. The weakening of low-level air humidity by this dynamical response exceeds the supply from the enhanced surface evaporation, causing decreased precipitation (decreasing more in the wet eastern plateau and less in the dry west). Further analyses show that the precipitation frequency increases mainly for light precipitation while decreasing for heavy precipitation. It is thus demonstrated that on the TP, land surface energy–atmosphere interactions can mitigate the rate of precipitation increase, suppress the increase in frequency of heavy precipitation, and weaken the east–west contrast in precipitation amount, through a dynamical mechanism. Overall, land–atmosphere interactions on the TP exert negative feedback to partially offset the accelerated plateau water cycle under a changing climate.