No targeted pharmacotherapy has proven effective for the treatment of acute traumatic brain injury (TBI). One potential explanation for these failures is the inclusion of patients who likely will not benefit, either because they die very early in their hospital stay or have excellent early outcomes. The goal of this study was to describe 1) factors associated with mortality over time and, 2) factors associated with early discharge home for patients with TBI. This secondary analysis of the randomized and placebo-controlled Progesterone for Traumatic Brain Injury Experimental Clinical Treatment (ProTECT) trial (conducted at 49 trauma centers across the United States) included adults age > 18 years who had moderate to severe TBI due to a blunt mechanism (initial Glasgow Coma Scale [iGCS] score 4 to 12), and were randomized to treatment with either progesterone or placebo (72-hour infusion followed by a 24-hour taper) within 4 hours of injury. Primary outcomes for this study were death up to 180 days (poor outcome) and early discharge home before hospital day 3 (good outcome). Factors associated with death and early discharge were independently examined via proportional hazards model and logistic regression respectively. Rotterdam scores were derived from the initial CT scan and scores were dichotomized into low (1-3) and high (4-6) for the poor outcome regression model and baseline head CT result (normal or abnormal) was considered for good outcome in the analyses. Of the 882 patients enrolled, 442 (50.1%) were randomized to intravenous progesterone; the majority were male (73.7%), and the median age (min-max) was 35.5 (17-94). 152 patients died during the 180-day study period; the median age (min-max) was 55 (18-94), 30.3 % were female, 30.3% were intubated prior to randomization, 50.0% had moderate to severe injury (iGCS 6-8) and 46.1% had high Rotterdam scores. Thirty-five (35) patients were discharged early; the median age (min-max) was 29 (18-71), 25.7% were female, 28.6% had abnormal baseline head CT scan, 40.0% had moderate injury (iGCS 9-12) and the mean injury severity score (ISS) was 7.3 + 4.9. The table presents the main results of 1) hazard ratios for death and, 2) the odds ratios for early discharge. After accounting for CT findings, the interactions of age and iGCS category were associated with death whereas increases in age and in the ISS were associated with a decreased odds of early discharge (good outcome). Increasing age, in combination with iGCS score, and CT findings may be a useful aid to identify patients with TBI who are more likely to experience mortality. Conversely, younger patients, those with a lower ISS, and those with normal CT results were more likely to be discharged early with a good outcome. Since most studies of moderate to severe TBI therapies exclude patients who are less likely to benefit from therapies that require longer-term dosing, such as patients who are likely to die early and those with less severe injury (discharged very early with good outcomes), these factors may be worth consideration when designing therapeutic clinical trials for TBI patients.TableMULTIVARIABLE ANALYSESHazard Ratios for Survival at 6 MonthsHazard Ratio95% CIMale0.940.66, 1.34Low Rotterdam Scorea0.260.19, 0.37Placebo Arm0.850.62, 1.17Age*Moderate Injuryb1.091.06, 1.11Age*Severe Injuryc1.051.03, 1.06Age*Most Severe Injuryd1.031.01, 1.05Odds Ratios for Early DischargeOdds Ratio95% CINormal CT Scan4.091.67, 10.06Age0.950.92, 0.99ISS0.780.72, 0.85(a) Low Rotterdam Score=1-3, High Rotterdam Score=4-6; (b) Moderate Injury: iGCS=9-12; (c) Severe Injury: iGCS=6-8/iMotor=4-5; (d) Most Severe Injury: iGCS=4-5/iMotor=2-3; Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; ISS, Injury Severity Score. Open table in a new tab