Low-information Elections Research Articles

Calling “Gevald”: on the emergence of negative election forecasts in partisan communications

AbstractIndividuals were found to anonymously predict positive election outcomes for their preferred candidate. Yet, there is little scientific knowledge about election predictions made in the context of same-camp political communications (i.e., partisan communications) that are presumably meant to encourage other supporters. In five studies of low-information elections and a study of hypothetical U.S. elections (n = 1889), we found that people tended to communicate favorable forecasts to others sharing their view, compared to the neutral point and to the actual election outcomes. On the other hand, negative framing reduced the positivity of forecasts in these communications to the extent that it led most participants to predict an election loss. This occurred in response to a single addressee acting discordantly and even more strongly when the election results were phrased as a drop. When both positive and negative framing options were available, this still negativity affected participants’ predictions even though only a minority selected the negative framing option. Thus, people tend to make optimistic election predictions in partisan communications, but this pattern is easily manipulable given subtle changes in the forecasting prompt, either by negative framing or selectable positive and negative framing.

Probing the Effect of Candidate Localness in Low-Information Elections: Evidence from the German Local Level

Candidates with local ties perform better than their rivals without such attachments. We focus on the underlying mechanism of the localness effect and hypothesise that voters prefer local candidates for instrumental reasons, expecting better representation, and for reasons of a shared place identity. To test these expectations, we rely on the unusually detailed ballot for local elections in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. Using multi-level regressions of the electoral results of 6503 candidates running in 21 cities in 2014, we confirm the importance of candidate localness for electoral success in low-information elections. Furthermore, we provide insights into the mechanisms behind this relationship. While instrumental motivations are independent of the composition of the electorate, a large share of elderly voters amplifies the identity effect, whereas many young voters, a high residential mobility, and a high population density diminishes this effect.

Polling in New Democracies and Electoral Malpractice: The Case of Brazil

Abstract In many developing democracies, polling often comes with elevated levels of bias and variance. We argue that electoral malpractice can be one reason why. We build a theory and test it with data from elections between 2002 and 2014 in Brazil. We find that polling errors are larger in: (a) elections with many undecided voters and large imbalances in financial resources among campaigns; (b) the poorer Northeast region of Brazil, which is more closely associated with patronage and vote buying; and (c) low-profile, low-information elections. Our analysis serves as a cautionary tale for interpreting polling in democracies like Brazil, even if/when other sources of error in the polling industry are mitigated.

Ballot Cues, Business Candidates, and Voter Choices in Local Elections

American voters commonly express abstract support for candidates with a business background, yet there is minimal systematic evidence about whether it advantages candidates in actual electoral contests. We examine this question using observational data, drawing on a California law allowing candidates to designate their occupational background on the ballot, and experimental data. Candidates with a business background are prevalent in California. However, neither of our studies indicate that business candidates enjoy atypical overall electoral success (although Republican leaning constituencies have a notably more favorable view of such candidates). A political background predicts electoral success far more effectively. Further, “small business owners” have more success than other business candidates, suggesting that voters consider the specifics of a candidate’s business experience. These results advance our knowledge of decision making in low-information elections, how voters weigh private-sector versus political experience, and how they filter occupational information through a partisan lens.

Random votes under compulsory voting: Evidence from Brazil

Compulsory voting is known for boosting electoral turnout, even when sanctions for abstaining are small or loosely enforced. Much less is known, however, about the consequences of compulsory voting on vote choice, and, in particular, about the quality of electoral decisions. In this paper, we explore the extent to which voters meaningfully engage in the electoral process or simply vote randomly because voting is required by law. We conducted a large online survey in Brazil during the 2018 national elections to assess if voters engage in random voting. We evaluate random voting for low-profile, low-information elected offices (state and federal legislators) and others that receive greater media coverage (governor and president) and evaluate the determinants of random voting for each of them. We find that: 1) random voting does not appear to be affected by social desirability bias; 2) there is substantial random voting under compulsory voting; 3) more voters tend to engage in random voting in low-profile, low-information elections, as compared to elections that receive greater media coverage; and, 4) interest in politics, education, and disposition to vote if voting were to be voluntary reduce random voting. Our findings carry important implications for the study of citizen participation and civic competence under compulsory voting and for democratic representation, more broadly.

Are You Picking Up What I Am Laying Down? Ideology in Low-Information Elections

In November 2017, New Orleans elected the first woman, and first Black woman, mayor in the city’s history. Voters were unable to rely on gender, race, or partisanship to differentiate between the candidates in the race. How, then, do voters make decisions absent traditional heuristics? Using an analysis of campaign materials and two-wave panel survey, we show that the candidates sent ideological signals with endorsements and issue foci and that voters responded by placing the candidates ideologically. Those voters who could not differentiate between the candidates’ ideologies were less likely to turn out to vote and took longer to decide in the elections. Using a new measure of relative ideological distance adopted for multicandidate races, we show that the distance between each voter and the nearest candidates correlated with vote choice. Our results add to our knowledge of voting behavior and the use of ideology in local elections.

The Effect of Associative Racial Cues in Elections

ABSTRACT How do racial signals associating a candidate with minority supporters change voters’ perceptions about a candidate and their support for a candidate? Given the presence of competing information in any campaign or the absence of information in low-salience campaigns, voters may rely on heuristics – such as race – to make the process of voting easier. The information communicated by these signals may be so strong that they cause voters to ignore other, perhaps more politically relevant, information. In this paper, we test how associative racial cues sway voters’ perceptions of and support for candidates using two experiments that harness real-world print and audio campaign advertisements. We find that the signals in these ads can sometimes overwhelm cues about policy positions when the two are present together. Moreover, we find that such signals have limited effects on candidate support among Black voters but that they risk substantial backlash of up to eight percentage points in reported vote intention among White voters. Our results highlight how voters gather and use information in low-information elections and demonstrate the power of campaign communication strategies that use racial associations.

Fit for the Job: Candidate Qualifications and Vote Choice in Low Information Elections

Cues and heuristics—like party, gender, and race/ethnicity—help voters choose among a set of candidates. We consider candidate professional experience—signaled through occupation—as a cue that voters can use to evaluate candidates’ functional competence for office. We outline and test one condition under which citizens are most likely to use such cues: when there is a clear connection between candidate qualifications and the particular elected office. We further argue that voters in these contexts are likely to make subtle distinctions between candidates, and to vote accordingly. We test our account in the context of local school board elections, and show—through both observational analyses of California election results and a conjoint experiment—that (1) voters favor candidates who work in education; (2) that voters discriminate even among candidates associated with education by only favoring those with strong ties to students; and (3) that the effects are not muted by partisanship. Voters appear to value functional competence for office in and of itself, and use cues in the form of candidate occupation to assess who is and who is not fit for the job.

Low-Information Voting: Evidence From Instant-Runoff Elections

How do voters make decisions in low-information contests? Although some research has looked at low-information voter decision making, scant research has focused on data from actual ballots cast in low-information elections. We focus on three 2008 Pierce County (Washington) Instant-Runoff Voting (IRV) elections. Using individual-level ballot image data, we evaluate the structure of individual rankings for specific contests to determine whether partisan cues underlying partisan rankings are correlated with choices made in nonpartisan races. This is the first time that individual-level data from real elections have been used to evaluate the role of partisan cues in nonpartisan races. We find that, in partisan contests, voters make avid use of partisan cues in constructing their preference rankings, rank-ordering candidates based on the correspondence between voters’ own partisan preferences and candidates’ reported partisan affiliation. However, in nonpartisan contests where candidates have no explicit partisan affiliation, voters rely on cues other than partisanship to develop complete candidate rankings.

Low-Information Voting: Evidence from Instant-Runoff Elections

How do voters make decisions in low-information contests? Although some research has looked at low-information voter decision-making, scant research has focused on data from actual ballots cast in low-information elections. We focus on three 2008 Pierce County (Washington) Instant-Runoff Voting (IRV) elections. Using individual-level ballot image data, we evaluate the structure of individual rankings for specific contests to determine whether partisan cues underlying partisan rankings are correlated with choices made in nonpartisan races. This is the first time that individual-level data from real elections has been used to evaluate the role of partisan cues in nonpartisan races. We find that, in partisan contests, voters make avid use of partisan cues in constructing their preference rankings, rank-ordering candidates based on the correspondence between voters’ own partisan preferences and candidates’ reported partisan affiliation. However, in nonpartisan contests where candidates have no explicit partisan affiliation, voters rely on cues other than partisanship to develop complete candidate rankings.

Why So Few Women and Minorities in Local Politics?: Incumbency and Affinity Voting in Low Information Elections

Previous research has examined the effects of incumbency or affinity voting on the political representation of women and minorities. No study has considered the interaction of these two factors, even though there are good reasons to suspect that both may play a key role in voter choice. This study examines the joint effects of incumbency and gender and racial affinity voting in non-partisan and generally low information ward elections in the City of Toronto. Results reveal the absence of gender affinity effects, regardless of the presence of an incumbent, but that racial affinity is a factor in wards without incumbents.

Are Voters Mobilized by a ‘Friend-and-Neighbor’ on the Ballot? Evidence from a Field Experiment

In his seminal work on Southern politics, V.O. Key observed that voters disproportionately support local candidates at the ballot box. While empirical analyses have confirmed “friends-and-neighbors” voting across numerous electoral contexts, no one has directly examined voter turnout as the mechanism linking place of residence to vote choice. We argue that place of residence is a social identity that incentivizes citizens to turn out to vote on behalf of the local candidate. We test this mobilization mechanism using a randomized field experiment conducted during a 2014 state legislative primary election. Our results show that county ties between candidates and voters likely boost turnout. Our findings contribute to our understanding of the importance of place identity for turnout decisions in low-information elections.

The right look: Conservative politicians look better and voters reward it

Since good-looking politicians win more votes, a beauty advantage for politicians on the left or on the right is bound to have political consequences. We show that politicians on the right look more beautiful in Europe, the United States and Australia. Our explanation is that beautiful people earn more, which makes them less inclined to support redistribution. Our model of within-party competition predicts that voters use beauty as a cue for conservatism when they do not know much about candidates and that politicians on the right benefit more from beauty in low-information elections. Evidence from real and experimental elections confirms both predictions.

Looks That Matter

Research demonstrates that good looks matter in politics. The global trend today is toward more visual ballots, which include candidates’ photographs. Because voters are exposed to a candidate’s appearance right before they vote, physical attractiveness may be a significant contributor to electoral success. But does appearance matter equally in high-information elections, where all candidates are well known to voters, and low-information elections, where voters have little or no knowledge of who the candidates are? How does enhancing the photos of candidates through software programs affect their electability? To our knowledge, this article is the first to examine the impact of candidates’ appearance in high- and low-information elections in the field using two experiments involving the manipulation of their appearance. Data for the first study were collected in a low-information election in which a student population was asked to select from a list of fictitious candidates for city council. In this study, we found that the candidates’ looks had an impact on the votes they received. Data for the second study were collected right before a high-information election: A straw poll that took place immediately before the primaries for a major political party in Israel, involving party members selecting from a list of real candidates. Here the candidates’ appearance had no impact on the votes they received, even for the lesser known candidates on the list. The results indicate that the impact of visual manipulation of candidate images does influence voters, but is limited by the informational context of the elections.

The politics of deracialisation: South Asian American candidates, nicknames, and campaign strategies

ABSTRACTThis paper focuses on the deracialisation strategies of South Asian American candidates for elected office. We argue that there is a distinct pattern among these candidates in terms of the type of representation they embody, as well as their personal choices including using non-ethnic nicknames in their campaign materials. These nicknames assist voters, especially in low-information elections, by signalling the ethnicity of candidates – or the lack thereof. Using data collected by the authors from 1956 to the present – the first such attempt to create a national database of South Asian American candidates – we employ a logistic regression to examine the effect of using a non-ethnic nickname on the likelihood of attaining electoral success. Our findings suggest that candidates who used a non-ethnic nickname were at least 25% more likely to win an election. This effect increased as we moved from local to federal contests.

Pastor Paulo vs. Doctor Carlos: Professional Titles as Voting Heuristics in Brazil

In low-information elections, voters are likely to rely on heuristics when choosing candidates. Based on survey experiments conducted prior to Brazil's 2012 municipal elections, I examine the effect of candidates’ professional titles, such as “doctor” and “pastor,” on voting behavior. Using the “pastor” title in one's electoral name tends to decrease vote intention, although evangelical Christians respond positively while members of other religious groups are repelled. The broader atmosphere of political competition between Brazilian evangelicals and Catholics helps explain the presence of both out-group and in-group cueing effects. The “doctor” title has a positive effect on vote intention that appears to be mediated by the positive stereotypes, such as intelligence and competence, associated with members of this profession.

Weight bias in US candidate selection and election

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to use data from the 2008 and 2012 US Senate elections to examine the relationship between candidate size (obese, overweight, normal weight) and candidate selection and election outcomes.Design/methodology/approach– Using pictures captured from candidate web sites, participants rated the size of candidates in the primary and general US Senate elections.χ2 analyses,t-tests and hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test for evidence of bias against overweight and obese candidates and whether gender and election information moderate that relationship.Findings– Obese candidates were largely absent from the pool of candidates in both the primary and general elections. Overweight women, but not overweight men, were also underrepresented. Supporting our hypothesis that there is bias against overweight candidates, heavier candidates tended to receive lower vote share than their thinner counterparts, and the larger the size difference between the candidates, the larger the vote share discrepancy. The paper did not find a moderating effect for gender or high-information high vs low-information elections on the relationship between candidate size and vote share.Research limitations/implications– Further research is needed to understand the process by which obese candidates are culled from the candidate pool and the cognitions underlying the biases against overweight candidates.Social implications– Because of the bias against obese political candidates, as much as one-third of the adult US population are likely to be excluded or being elected to a major political office.Originality value– This study is the first to use election data to examine whether bias based on size extends to the electoral process.

It's the occupation, stupid! Explaining candidates' success in low-information elections

Do voters use ballot paper information on the personal characteristics of political candidates as cues in low-information elections? Using a unique dataset containing 4423 political candidates from recent elections in Germany, we show that candidates' occupations do play an important role in their electoral success. The occupational impact is far greater than gender or doctoral degree effects for a large number of occupations. We discuss three possible explanations for these “occupational effects”: (a) an occupation's public reputation, (b) the extent to which individuals carrying out certain occupations are known within their communities, and (c) occupation specific competence related to issues relevant for local politics. Looking at polls on the reputation/prestige of certain jobs, we find a strong correlation between an occupation's reputation and the electoral success of a candidate carrying out this occupation. Therefore, voters appear to use occupational reputation as a cue in low-information elections.

Variations on Ballot Format in Low-Information Elections

A common problem with studying the impact of ballot formats is the inability to test them in real world circumstances, due to the inability to vary election methods within states each year. This study examines the effect of ballot format on low information judicial elections. The pool of subjects consisted of over 550 undergraduate students enrolled in introductory American Government classes. Each subject was given an information sheet to simulate the usually available information about each candidate, and then asked to complete one of three randomly distributed ballots. Each ballot contained a race for President, U.S. Senate, and two hypothetical judicial posts. The three ballot formats given to the subjects included a straight ticket format, partisan format without the straight ticket option, and a non-partisan format. The results help to better identify the impact of alternative ballot formats on voter decision.

Do Nonpartisan Ballots Racialize Candidates Evaluations in Low-Information Elections?

At last count, U.S. voters were responsible for directly electing more than 510,000 public officials. Few of these contests feature lively campaigns or attract substantial media attention, leaving voters to make decisions with limited information. We argue that the strategies voters use to do so depend in part on ballot design — in particular, the presence or absence of partisan labels. Using two “Who Said What?” experiments, we show that voters engage in social categorization — and do so on the basis of race and ethnicity when candidates differ in their demographic background. We also find, however, that the presence of party labels shape the degree to which voters categorize candidates based on their race and ethnicity. Our results suggest that efforts to increase minority representation should look beyond electoral institutions — such as district versus at-large elections — to the structure of the ballot itself.