Low-fertility Societies Research Articles

고령사회 노인문화정책의 변화 고찰 및 과제

In 2025, South Korea is projected to enter a super-aged society with 20.6% of its population aged 65 and older. The Baby Boomer generation, which will constitute a significant portion of this aged society, values cultural needs, independence, and the identity of being a free and active participant in society. Thus, understanding the characteristics of an aging society and the new senior is essential, and policy responses based on this understanding are necessary. This study explains the policy lag phenomenon in cultural policies for an aging society, based on Thomas Kuhn's paradigm theory and the path dependency theory of new institutionalism. It demonstrates that the cultural policies for an aging society have not adequately responded to the aging population, using the low birth rate and aging society policies and senior cultural programs as case studies. The study found that society has shifted to an aging society centered on the Baby Boomer generation, which has high cultural activity demands. Despite the shift in social paradigms, the transition from senior policies to the “Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aging Society” did not prioritize the fulfillment of cultural needs, but rather continued to focus primarily on employment policies, as seen in previous welfare policies. It was difficult to find policies implemented from the perspective of cultural activities for seniors in the first Basic Plan, and even in the second and third supplementary plans, the emphasis was predominantly on senior employment. Additionally, the budget for the representative senior cultural policy, the Senior Culture Program, decreased steadily from approximately 4.6 billion KRW in 2016 to 2.5 billion KRW in 2022, with the number of programs reducing from 391 in 2016 to 163 in 2023. This study, which highlights the changes in an aging society and the current state of senior cultural policies, can be used to develop policies that enhance the quality of life in an aging society. Moreover, it suggests the need for more detailed research to create more segmented cultural policies that address specific age groups and genders, rather than policies targeting everyone aged 65 and older as a single group.

일생활균형정책과 지방분권화에 따른 출산율의 변화: OECD 회원국을 중심으로

In Korea's Basic Plan for a Low Fertility and Aging Society, the work-life balance policy aims to create a society that works together and takes care of each other, and seeks to promote regional coexistence due to demographic changes. To this end, this study aims to empirically examine the relationship between the characteristics of work-life balance policies and fertility rates in OECD member countries according to the degree of fiscal decentralization. Based on data provided by the OECD and the International Network on Leave Policy and Research, we find that maternity and parental leave are significantly associated with fertility. Maternity leave duration is positively related to fertility, while women's parental leave, both unpaid and paid, is negatively related to fertility. The relationship between decentralization and fertility shows that the more fiscal autonomy local governments have, the higher the fertility rate. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it is necessary to implement policies in the direction of promoting autonomy in the combination of parental leave duration and salary level through the autonomy and discretion of local governments, and strengthening the duration of maternity leave and economic support. This study examines the characteristics and basic elements of leave policies (maternity leave and parental leave), which are key work-life balance policies, and how the degree of decentralization affects fertility rates in 35 OECD countries, with the ultimate goal of improving the quality of life of not only parents but also infants and young children.

시스템 사고를 활용한 저출산과 교육의 인과 현상 분석

Considering that the low fertility phenomenon is intricately intertwined with education, this study attempted to analyze the causal phenomenon of low fertility and education through the lens of systems thinking. First, the relationship between low fertility and education and the logic of the education policy in response to low fertility were analyzed with a causal loop diagram, and then the problem of the education policy in response to low fertility was analyzed by synthesizing them.
 The analysis revealed that the low fertility is reinforced by establishing mutual causal relationships with education-related variables such as the burden of private education costs, increased demand for higher education, and the deterioration of the quality of the educational environment. The education policies in response to low fertility that emerged in this context were passive policies, focusing on adapting to a low fertility society(e.g., university structural reform, reduction of the number of teachers, consolidation of schools, and complexation of school facilities), and active policies, aimed at raising fertility rates(e.g., expanding care supply and supporting education expenses). However, it was found that the intervention effect of the education policy in response to low fertility was limited due to problems such as lack of consideration of key factors of low fertility, such as the burden of private education expenses, or unintended negative results such as a decrease in the quality of the educational environment were found in the policy execution process. Based on these research results, the matters to be considered in the design and implementation of low fertility education policies were presented as implications.

The Global Decline in Human Fertility: The Post-Transition Trap Hypothesis.

Over the past half a century many countries have witnessed a rapid fall in total fertility rates, particularly in the world's most advanced economies including the industrial powerhouses of Eastern Asia and Europe. Such nations have now passed through the first and second demographic transitions and are currently exhibiting fertility rates well below the replacement threshold of 2.1, with no sign of recovery. This paper examines the factors responsible for driving these demographic transitions and considers their impact on both fertility and fecundity (our fundamental capacity to reproduce). I argue that because the first demographic transition was extremely rapid and largely driven by socioeconomic factors, it has had no lasting impact on the genetic/epigenetic underpinnings of human fecundity. However, the second demographic transition will be different. A series of conditions associated with low fertility societies, including relaxed selection pressure for high-fertility genotypes, the indiscriminate use of assisted reproductive technologies to treat human infertility, and environmental contamination with reproductive toxicants, may impact our genetic constitution in ways that compromise the future fecundity of our species. Since any fundamental change in the genetic foundations of human reproduction will be difficult to reverse, we should actively pursue methods to monitor human fecundity, as sub-replacement fertility levels become established across the globe.

우리나라 인구정책에 대한 비판적 논의

Purpose: Korea’s total fertility rate is facing a situation where it is less than 1, and the country's population is declining. In addition, as the baby boom generation retires, the problem of aging is emerging. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the current status of population policy in Korea and to find a direction for improvement through critical discussion.
 Methods: This study first examined the population policy announced by the government through the ｢4th Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aging Society｣. From this, the population policies of the central government and local governments were analyzed by dividing them into economic, legal and institutional, and educational and cultural perspectives, and it was pointed out that the educational and cultural perspectives were somewhat lacking or ambiguous. Therefore, based on previous studies that affect trust in government and policies and cases of studies on population policies, critical discussions were conducted on the lack of empathy for Korean policies.
 Results: In order to successfully implement Korea’s population policy, it can be said that empathy for the policy is essential. Accordingly, it was suggested that empathy for population policy can be complemented through population education. However, continuous interaction is necessary between population policy and population education as a process of long-term efforts, and population education must also be able to find its own direction and tasks.
 Conclusion: For the success of population policy, a continuous process of discussion in various fields is necessary. Accordingly, this study developed a critical discussion on Korea's population policy based on the ｢4th Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aging Society｣, focusing on empathy and education. In order to empathize with the policy, it emphasized the need to provide opportunities to face the population problems faced on a regular basis through population education.

지방소멸방지를 위한 특별자치도의 정책방안 연구

The decrease in local population breaks the balance with the economic development of the region, fails to realize decentralization and balanced development, and eventually approaches the crisis of local extinction. The main causes of the population decline in the provinces were the natural decrease due to the low fertility rate and population aging, and the larger factor, the social decrease (population outflow). In the Special Self-Governing Province, it is necessary to break away from the policy practice of the central government and actively prepare policy measures to respond to local extinction by using its own special authority and position. Since the policy establishment of the central government related to the population decline crisis, such as the 「Basic Act on Low Fertility and Aging Society」 in 2006, was promoted in a uniform way, there are many problems that do not properly reflect the characteristics of each local government and the situation at the site. Accordingly, five measures are proposed for the Special Self-Governing Province to establish policy measures that are sustainable and reflect regional specialization.

Diverging Destinies in East Asia

Research on diverging destinies provides a compelling and influential framework for understanding relationships between socioeconomic bifurcation in family behavior and inequality within and across generations. Articulations of the diverging destinies framework stress its broad relevance for low-fertility societies, but empirical evaluations in East Asia are limited. We address this gap by summarizing and synthesizing scholarship on socioeconomic differentials in family behavior and relationships between family circumstances and children's well-being in mainland China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. We seek an understanding of how and why the diverging destinies framework is or is not helpful for understanding family change and inequality in societies characterized by a highly asymmetric gender division of labor, strong emphasis on family investment in children, and limited public support for families. This article provides a contextual and empirical basis upon which to build subsequent research on family change and inequality in East Asia.

저출산･고령사회 재정사업의 유형화를 통한 메타평가: 1차~3차 저출산･고령사회 기본계획 성과평가의 통시적 접근

본 연구는 ｢저출산･고령사회 기본계획｣을 종단면적인 관점에서 종합적으로 평가하여 향후 인구정책의 방향을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 한국보건사회연구원에서 2006년 저출산･고령사회 기본계획이 수립되어 추진된 이후, 2007년부터 매년 실시하고 있는 연차별 성과평가 결과를 활용하여, 통시적 관점에서 연차별 성과평가를 종합한 메타평가를 실시하고 그 결과를 바탕으로 인구정책의 방향성을 제시하였다.BR 보건사회연구원의 성과보고서에서 활용하고 있는 종속변수인 예산집행률과 목표달성률을 종속변수로 한 통합모형(pooled OLS) 분석 결과를 종합하여 살펴보면, 예산집행률을 종속변수로 보았을 때, 아동･청소년기를 대상으로 한 정책들과 중장년기를 대상으로 한 정책의 예산집행률이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 목표 달성률을 종속변수로 분석한 모형에서는 소득보장 정책에 비해 보건･의료 정책, 일자리 정책, 그리고 정주환경 정책의 목표달성률이 유의미하게 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 정책유형 중 소득보장 정책의 경우 예산집행율은 다른 정책들에 비해 낮지만 목표달성률은 높은 것으로 나타났다.BR 분석결과, 소득보장 정책과 더불어 현재 예산집행률이 높음에도 부처 스스로 설정한 목표임에도 불구하고 달성률이 저조한 정책유형(보건의료, 일자리, 정주환경)의 재정사업에 대한 세심한 정책설계의 필요성이 요구된다. 저출산･고령사회 기본계획의 주요 방향인 안정적인 사회보장의 관점에서 기본적인 소득보장 정책의 추진과 함께, 동 계획에서 상대적으로 소흘히하고 있는 중장년층 등 정책대상과 수단의 사각지대를 적극적으로 발견하고 개선해나가는 노력이 필요하다.

Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries

The dominance of two-child families is considered an intrinsic characteristic of low fertility societies. Their share was continuously increasing among baby boom cohorts but the rise ceased afterwards. While parity- and education-specific fertility trends during the expansion of the two-child families have been studied, corresponding analyses of developments in the post-expansion birth cohorts are scarce. This study investigates the parity-specific fertility trends that ended the expansion of two-child families across educational groups. We use data on completed fertility of female cohorts born between 1936 and 1970 in 16 low-fertility countries. Besides examining trends in education- and parity-specific fertility, we provide evidence on increasing variation in family size and on the contribution of parity-specific fertility to the share of two child families among women with low, medium and high education. Our results show that the expansion of two-child families stopped as the variation in family size increased: transition rates to first and/or second birth declined whereas those to third birth increased. This polarisation process was strongest among women with low education. Apparently, as the number of women progressing to second birth declined, they became more selected and family-oriented, and thus more likely to progress to further births. The fact that the strongest polarisation of fertility was observed among the low educated reflects the group’s increasing selectivity. We demonstrate that rising polarisation of family size is a common development to most high-income low-fertility populations, especially among the low educated, regardless of substantial cross-country differences in fertility levels as well as in institutional, economic and cultural settings.

Childbearing intention and childbearing behavior in low fertility society: evidence from Shanghai

Exploring the patterns of population change under low fertility is a historical mission for demographic research in the 21st century. Taking Shanghai as an example, this paper discusses the new patterns and characteristics of people’s childbearing intention and behavior under low fertility settings. The results show that Shanghai, as a typical society with ultra-low fertility, people’s childbearing intention and behavior demonstrate the characteristics such as “downward inconsistency” between childbearing intention and childbearing behavior, “convergence” of childbearing intention and childbearing behavior between different sub-groups, “inversion” in childbearing intention and childbearing behavior with education and income, and the “decoupling” between marriage and childbearing. The childbearing intention and behavior of low fertility society as seen in the case of Shanghai show the patterns as somehow different from what was observed in a high fertility society. It suggests that many of the childbearing patterns shown in the high-fertility era may not necessarily be applicable in low fertility settings, and urges more research to be carried out in this regard.

Birth Rate Transition in the Republic of Korea: Trends and Prospects.

In Korea, the birth rate is declining at an alarming pace. This study aimed to investigate the changes and trends in the population count, number of births, and birth rate in Korea, in the past and future. Data regarding the total number of births, crude birth rate, and total fertility rate were collected from the "Statistics Korea Census" of the national statistical portal, census report, and Statistics Korea's "2020 Population Trend Survey for 1981-2020, provisional results of birth and death statistics." We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2019 Family Database for the TFR. To develop a better understanding of the data in this study, we classified it according to the modern history of Korea. The changes and trends in the number of births and fertility rate in Korea, after liberation, were due to the birth control policy that restricted births. In Korea's low fertility society, which began in the mid-2000s, the fertility rate dropped to below 0.84 in 2020, despite policies to improve the quality of the population. The death toll has reached 300,000, entering an era of population decline. As we enter the era of population decline, we are in a direction that will cause various socioeconomic problems, from demographic problems to future population decline.

A Determinants-of-Fertility Ontology for Detecting Future Signals of Fertility Issues From Social Media Data: Development of an Ontology.

BackgroundSouth Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world despite considerable governmental efforts to boost it. Increasing the fertility rate and achieving the desired outcomes of any implemented policies requires reliable data on the ongoing trends in fertility and preparations for the future based on these trends.ObjectiveThe aims of this study were to (1) develop a determinants-of-fertility ontology with terminology for collecting and analyzing social media data; (2) determine the description logics, content coverage, and structural and representational layers of the ontology; and (3) use the ontology to detect future signals of fertility issues.MethodsAn ontology was developed using the Ontology Development 101 methodology. The domain and scope of the ontology were defined by compiling a list of competency questions. The terms were collected from Korean government reports, Korea’s Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aging Society, a national survey about marriage and childbirth, and social media postings on fertility issues. The classes and their hierarchy were defined using a top-down approach based on an ecological model. The internal structure of classes was defined using the entity-attribute-value model. The description logics of the ontology were evaluated using Protégé (version 5.5.0), and the content coverage was evaluated by comparing concepts extracted from social media posts with the list of ontology classes. The structural and representational layers of the ontology were evaluated by experts. Social media data were collected from 183 online channels between January 1, 2011, and June 30, 2015. To detect future signals of fertility issues, 2 classes of the ontology, the socioeconomic and cultural environment, and public policy, were identified as keywords. A keyword issue map was constructed, and the defined keywords were mapped to identify future signals. R software (version 3.5.2) was used to mine for future signals.ResultsA determinants-of-fertility ontology comprised 236 classes and terminology comprised 1464 synonyms of the 236 classes. Concept classes in the ontology were found to be coherently and consistently defined. The ontology included more than 90% of the concepts that appeared in social media posts on fertility policies. Average scores for all of the criteria for structural and representations layers exceeded 4 on a 5-point scale. Violence and abuse (socioeconomic and cultural factor) and flexible working arrangement (fertility policy) were weak signals, suggesting that they could increase rapidly in the future.ConclusionsThe determinants-of-fertility ontology developed in this study can be used as a framework for collecting and analyzing social media data on fertility issues and detecting future signals of fertility issues. The future signals identified in this study will be useful for policy makers who are developing policy responses to low fertility.

Government Transfers to Parents and Population Policy in a Global Perspective: An Economic Demographic Perspective

The world is rapidly converging towards lower fertility: in 2020, countries with a total fertility rate of less than 2.25 will encompass more than three-quarters of the world population. This implies that the determinants of childbearing will be increasingly similar in high-income and middle-income regions of the world. In this article, I discuss economic demography in relation to levels of childbearing. How do different societies distribute resources across the life course and between generations, and to what extent is this done through governmental transfers? The extent of such transfers varies considerably between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries, which I explored through data from the National Transfers Account project. I argue that in low-fertility societies, the extent to which the costs of childrearing are socialised is important for fertility. The extent to which childrearing is socialised will be an important determinant of future fertility levels and, if used as a population policy, offers a straightforward pathway to achieve a desirable population size. As the global fertility decline continues, such policies will be relevant to most societies and a tool for governments to affect fertility levels across many contexts.

Marriage intentions, desires, and pathways to later and less marriage in Japan.

BACKGROUNDUnderstanding the trend toward later and less marriage is particularly important in low-fertility societies where alternatives to marriage are limited and childbearing outside of marriage remains rare.OBJECTIVEOur goal in this paper is to advance our understanding of the wide variety of explanations offered for later and less marriage in Japan by focusing explicitly on marriage intentions and desires.METHODSUsing two sources of nationally representative data, we describe the prevalence of positive, negative, and passive marriage intentions and desires among men and women who have never been married. We also examine socioeconomic differences in intentions, patterns of marriage desires across young adulthood, and relationships between marriage desires and outcomes. By linking three pathways to later and less marriage (rejection of marriage, failure to realize marriage desires, and unplanned drifting into singlehood) to specific theoretical frameworks, we generate indirect insights into explanations for later and less marriage.CONCLUSIONSAlthough the large majority of unmarried men and women want to marry, less than half of respondents married across nine waves of the Japanese Life Course Panel Survey. Among those who remained unmarried, roughly two-thirds can be classified as ‘drifting’ into singlehood, about 30% as ‘failing to realize marriage desires,’ and no more than 5% as ‘rejecting marriage.’CONTRIBUTIONBy extending the small body of research on marriage intentions and desires, this study provides a framework for thinking broadly about explanations for later and less marriage in Japan and highlights the importance of both failure to realize marriage desires and unplanned drifting into singlehood.

Family Planning in the Republic of Tajikistan: A narrative review from Soviet times to 2017.

Introduction:Tajikistan's dramatic shift from a high to a low fertility society has taken place over a little more than two decades. While some fertility beliefs remained the same throughout the rapid economic and political transitions of Tajikistan, other beliefs may have changed to respond to the financial realities of the newly independent and Central Asian republic, such as having fewer children. The objective of this review was to describe and analyze the state of family planning in the Republic of Tajikistan from Soviet period (1929-1991) until 2017.Methods:The review is based on materials obtained from various sources including Google Scholar and PubMed, relevant to family planning in Tajikistan, including government policies, open-access nationally representative data, journal articles, and program reports, identified through a selective search of Google Scholar and PubMed databases, and the grey literature.Conclusions:This narrative review presents the history of family planning in Tajikistan, outlines an understanding of the health system context as it relates to family planning, and analyzes the latest national family planning policy (2017). The authors suggest further research is required to (a) understand the beliefs and practices related to family planning; and (b) define strategies to address the issue of unmet need of family planning services.

Do Individuals with Higher Education Prefer Smaller Families? Education, Fertility Preference and the Value of Children in Greater Jakarta

An emerging scholarship indicates that the negative educational gradient in fertility preference has reversed in some low-fertility societies in the West. This paper explores the association between education and fertility preference in Greater Jakarta. We use longitudinal data from 962 young adults surveyed in 2010 and 2014. We look at two complementary measures of fertility preference: desired number of children, and a series of attitudinal questions around the value of children, supplemented by insights from in-depth interviews. We find a slight negative educational gradient in the desired number of children, but the means are not significantly different across education categories (average of 2.43). While desired family size may not vary much by educational groupings, education continues to shape other underlying facets of fertility motivations and regulation. Multivariate analysis suggests a positive and significant association between education and the likelihood of wanting more than two children in 2010.Tertiary-educated young adults, however, have the lowest likelihood of having achieved their desired family size by 2014. Tertiary-educated respondents demonstrate higher levels of agency in governing their fertility choices. Qualitative insights suggest little socio-economic difference in how young adults articulate the psychological benefits associated with children, but less well-off respondents express higher anxiety about the costs of raising children. As the first birth occurs at a relatively early stage in their childbearing years for most women, especially those with a lower education level, there is considerable scope for lived experience to influence values, preferences and outcomes.

성평등 관점에서의 저출산 기본계획 평가와 대안 전략에 관한 연구

성평등 관점에서의 저출산 기본계획 평가와 대안 전략에 관한 연구

Impact of Home Ovulation Tests on Marital Sexual Life in Singapore: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

This paper investigates the impact of home ovulation tests on the sexual lives of Singaporean married couples. Information about time of ovulation allows couples to adjust both the volume and timing of sexual activity to maximize chances of achieving their fertility ideals. In addition, when couples’ fertility ideals diverge, behavioural changes are more likely to be aligned with wives’ ideals due to informational asymmetry. Evidence from a randomized controlled trial based on diary data collected biweekly over 14 weeks from 657 married women aged 25-34 suggests that among couples whose fertility ideals were not achieved, access to ovulation tests did not lead to a lower volume of sex. These couples were more likely to have sex on days of positive test results but did not avoid sex when results were negative. There is some support for the hypothesis that informational asymmetry favors wives’ fertility ideals. Higher access to home ovulation tests increases the probability that sexual activity falls within the fertile window among married couples who have not achieved their fertility ideals, and may reduce waiting time to pregnancy in low-fertility societies.

Ultra-low Fertility and Policy Response in South Korea: Lessons from the Case of Japan

South Korea’s fertility rate declined rapidly beginning in the late 1970s. By 2005, it had fallen to an all-time low of 1.08 per woman. This shift has contributed to a significant and continuing increase in the ratio of elderly to working-age population. In 2006 and 2010, the Korean government instituted policy plans intended to support child-rearing in the context of a modern industrialized society. However, increases in fertility rates during the years that followed were slight and inconsistent. In 2016, the government presented its Third Initiative for Low Fertility and Aging Society, but this program has been criticized, especially for focusing, like the earlier plans, too narrowly on financial subsidies rather than addressing culture and infrastructure as well. The present study examines these policy responses and compares them to the case of Japan, where a substantial reversal in the recent low fertility trend appears to have followed targeted, broad-based policies from both the central and regional governments, as well as voluntary programs by employers. The study recommends that Korea, like Japan, should not only engage multiple stakeholders but should broaden the scope of policy responses to account for the research-supported interrelationship among factors associated with education, culture, and economics.

Gender Preference and its Influence on Fertility Intention in the low-Fertility Context of Tehran, Iran

Background & aim: A number of studies have addressed the positive effects of parental gender preferences for children on fertility in Iran. However, new demographic situations have left two questions unanswered: whether parents demonstrate gender preferences for children in a modern low-fertility society and if so whether such a preference is a strong predictor of the probability of having another child. Methods: This cross-sectional survey was conducted on 450 married men and women residing in Tehran, Iran in 2014. The Data collection tool included a self-structured questionnaire entailing a demographic information form, fertility intention, and gender preference-related data. The data were analyzed in SPSS Software (version 24) using cross tabulation estimation and logistic regression. Results: 22.2% of men and 17.11% of women were reported to be in favor of having daughter, while 12.9% of men and 14% of women preferred son. Moreover, gender preference was found to have no significant effect on fertility intention. However, the women with same-sex children were 3.17 times more likely to desire another child, compared to those who have different sex composition (OR=3.178, P value= 0.000). Furthermore, the men in the age groups of ≤30 and 31-40 desired to have another child, compared to older men. Conclusion: While a preference for son is rooted in Iranian culture, a new gender preference is emerging with a strong tendency toward having a girl. However, gender preference was not a driving force in the continuation of fertility in the context of low fertility of Tehran.